Drew Gordon
Baltimore +110 at FLORIDA
Now on a 20-9 roll with the plays I'm giving away. For tonight's complimentary play, we're looking at the Baltimore/Florida match-up.
Good value to be had here with the Orioles, as they attempt to avoid the sweep tonight at Landshark Stadium. Although the O's have traditionally struggled vs. the Fish, they have a couple things going for them in this match up, and it all starts with the pitching match up...
While rookie Sean West had had some nice efforts this season, his last two starts were anything but "nice." He got tagged for 4 runs in 5 2/3 innings at Toronto (walking 4), but escaped with the win. And then, in his last one, he allowed 5 runs on a whopping 10 hits in just 4 innings against the Yankees at home. Rookie tend to have their ups-and-downs, and right now, I simply cannot trust West in this spot.
Another problem for West and the Marlins is that it appears Rich Hill may have finally found his groove. It took him some time after missing part of the season, but his last start was vintage, allowing 2 runs on 5 hits over 6 2/3 innings at the Phillies. He did walk 4 batters, but overall it was one of his best starts of the season, and one he can definately build off of.
Finally, don't discount the Orioles offense in this contest, as despite their two straight losses, they've been swinging the bats extremely well of late. Note, over their last 10 games Baltimore is batting .310 as a team, including .286 against lefties... You best believe they'll get plenty of oppurtunities against the rookie West! In the end, the Marlins enjoyed big-time pitching edges in the first two games of this series, but this time around, the edge goes to the Orioles. Look for that to be the difference in this contest, as the O's avoids the sweep Thursday night!
Take Baltimore behind Hill over Florida and West in this MLB match up.
1♦ BALTIMORE
Dave Cokin
PHILADELPHIA PHILLIES / TAMPA BAY RAYS
Take PHILADELPHIA PHILLIES
The Phillies were shut down by Matt Garza Wednesday night, but they should find the serves of Andy Sonnanstine much more to their liking in the series finale. Rookie Antonio Bastardo's fly ball tendencies are playing better on the road than at home, which is not surprising. He'll have a tough challenge with the high scoring Rays, but I think he has the edge over Sonnanstine, and the Phils continue to be a force on the road. I'll got with Philly as small road dogs.
Jim Feist
BALTIMORE ORIOLES / FLORIDA MARLINS
Take FLORIDA MARLINS
Baltimore is a terrible road team, and the offense has little speed and ranks just 10th in the AL in runs scored. They lose the DH for this game, heading to Florida. Lefty Rich Hill allowed two runs in 6.2 innings Friday against the Phillies. He was credited with the win, improving his season record to 3-1, shutting down a potent Philadelphia lineup. The Baltimore offense has never faces Florida lefty Sean West (3.97 ERA), who has been decent. Play the Marlins.
Scott Spreitzer
Philadelphia Phillies at Tampa Bay Rays
I'm playing the Phillies on Thursday. Tampa Bay has been unable to figure out southpaws in home night games this season. In fact, they enter tonight's contest with a 0-5 mark in this spot, scoring just 2.6 rpg. Philly southpaw Antonio Bastardo has three decent outings in his four starts this season. He's also much like the rest of the team...performing well on the road, and not so hot at home. Bastardo is 2-0 in his two road starts this season, allowing just three earned runs and 13 base runners in 11 innings. That's a 2.45 ERA and 1.18 WHIP. Meanwhile, the Phils normally clobber righties away from home. Tonight, they face Andy Sonnanstine, who has been tagged for a 5.32 ERA in his last three outings. Look for the Phils to grab the road win on Thursday.
Play on: Philadelphia
VEGAS EXPERTS
Texas Rangers at Arizona Diamondbacks
The Diamondbacks are just 9-17 against right-handed pitchers at home this season. They will be facing a pitcher in Scott Feldman who has been pretty good this season with just a 3.18 ERA in 11 starts. Arizona starter Jon Garland has a 1-10 TSR against AL West opponents over the last three years. In 19 career starts against Texas, Garland has a 7-12 TSR with a 6.24 ERA. Go with Texas here.
Play on: Texas
Vernon Croy
Boston Red Sox vs. Washington Nationals
Play: Boston Red Sox
This pick falls into one of my top MLB systems and there is just too much value here tonight to pass up with the superior overall team at this low price. The Red Sox are now 10-1 in their last 11 games against the Red Sox and they are 8-1 in their last 9 road games. John Smoltz makes his 1st start since June.2 2008 so he will likely be limited to 85-90 pitches and he has dominated the Nationals since 2007 with an ERA of just 1.77 over 7 starts against them. Smoltz pitched solid over his 6 rehab starts in the minors with an ERA of just 2.63 and I look for him to have a solid outing against this Nationals line-up tonight. The Red Sox are an AL best 15-5 in June and their bullpen has pitched solid on the road this season with an ERA of just 2.97 over 109 innings so if Smoltz does get into trouble they can depend on their bullpen. The Nationals are just 1-6 in Jordan Zimmermann's (2-3, 5.03 ERA) last 7 starts and they are just 2-9 in their last 11 games as a underdog of +110 to +150. Zimmerman has only lasted an average of 5.6 innings per start over his last 3 outings and the Nationals bullpen although they have pitched better lately they have struggled at home this season with an ERA of 5.40. Take the Boston Red Sox as Thursday's MLB Free Pick.
LT Profits
Chicago Cubs @ Detroit Tigers
Ted Lilly has been the most consistent starter for the Chicago Cubs this season, while Armando Galarrago has allowed three earned runs in four of his last five starts for the Detroit tigers after an abysmal month of May.
Lilly has a 3.04 ERA and an excellent 1.06 WHIP in 91.2 innings this year, and perhaps most impressively, he now has nine Quality Starts in his last 10 starts. He has allowed two runs or less in four of his last five outings, and he is facing a Tigers lineup that is suddenly struggling vs. left-handed pitchers, batting only .208 vs. southpaws over the last 10 games. Also, the Under is 9-5, 64.3 percent in all games started by Lilly this season.
Galarraga had a break-through season last year followed by a terrific April, so his meltdown in May came seemingly out of the blue. His recent return to form is more indicative of his true form though, and the fact that the Cubs have never faced him before gives him an added advantage. It also helps that the Cubs have a poor .237 team batting average on the road this year while averaging only 3.76 runs per game.
Do not look for much scoring in Motown early this afternoon.
Pick: Cubs/Tigers Under 9
Tommy Gill
Boston Red Sox for 2 units -125
The Washington Nationals have been terrible this season and I believe we are getting some good line value today with Boston even though this is the first start for Smoltz this season. On get away day I am hearing that Washington is going to sit their best hitter Adam Dunn today and that is big for Boston in this series. Boston has dominated the Nationals in this series winning both games by 2 runs and 8 runs which is a 5 run average. Zimmermann is pitching for the Nationals today and he has been not bad in his last 4 starts but run support has been a problem only averaging 2 runs of support in his last 3 games. Nationals are 12-25 at home this season which is 13 games under .500 at home. Boston has won 8 out of there last 9 road games and are looking for the sweep today in Washington which should be easy for them to get. We believe that Boston should be a big favorite in this game because of a 3 ER difference in the bullpens average and we see Boston winning this game in the 6th-9th innings today.
Nelly
New York + over Atlanta
Derek Lowe has been rocked in recent outings, allowing 37 hits and 20 runs over his last five starts. The Braves are just 8-7 in Lowe starts this season despite being valued as a one of the elite starters in the NL and the Braves are 2-5 in the last seven Lowe starts. The Yankees have won eleven of the last 16 games between these teams. Andy Pettitte has been a reliable starter for the Yankees allowing two or fewer runs in three of his last six starts. New York is 7-3 in Pettitte's last ten starts and the Yankees are 5-1 in his road starts. Pettitte features a 2.35 road ERA. Atlanta is batting just .217 in the last ten games against left-handed pitching and this looks like a favorable match-up and a great price for the Yankees.
Jimmy Boyd
1 Unit on Arizona D-backs +100
The Rangers' Scott Feldman got out of the gate fast, but he has struggled of late, going 0-2 with an ERA of 4.76 over his last 3 starts, with the Rangers losing all 3 of those outings. Plus, the Rangers are 2-5 in Feldman's last 7 starts as a favorite of -110 to -150, 2-7 in his last 9 starts during game 3 of a series, and 0-4 in his last 4 starts when their opponent allows 2 runs or less in their previous game. Although it hasn't shown up in the win column, Garland has pitched much better of late, posting an ERA of 3.92 over his last 3 starts, and the Diamondbacks are 5-1 in his last 6 starts following a team loss in their previous game and 4-0 in his last 4 starts after scoring 2 runs or less in their previous game. The Rangers are just 1-5 in their last 6 as they have not been able to score runs like they were early in the season. In fact, they've scored 2 runs or less in each of their last 4 games. Take the D-backs at home tonight to get the job done.
Nick Parsons
Texas Rangers -120 @ Arizona Diamondbacks
The Texas Rangers have finally snapped their losing streak, but they’re still trying to break out of a surprising offensive slump. A matchup with Jon Garland may help. The Rangers have traditionally presented major problems for the Arizona Diamondbacks’ right-hander, but Garland will be coming off one of his best outings of the season when the teams settle their three-game set in Phoenix on Thursday night. For his career, Garland is 5-8 with a 6.39 ERA versus Texas, and Chris Davis has two home runs in five at-bats off Garland. Texas is 16-9 (+6.4 units) when playing against a team with a losing record; play on the RANGERS!
Rocketman
Philadelphia Phillies vs. Tampa Bay Rays
Play: Philadelphia Phillies
Philadelphia is 37-32 this year while Tampa Bay comes in with a 38-35 record on the season. Philadelphia is 6-1 this year as a road underdog of +125 to +150. Philadelphia is 24-10 on the road this season. Philadelphia is scoring 5.3 runs per game overall this year and 6 runs per game on the road this season. Philadelphia bullpen has a 3.27 ERA on the road this year. Antonio Bastardo is 2-0 with a 2.45 ERA on the road this year. Andy Sonnanstine is 5-7 with a 6.60 ERA overall this year. Philadelphia is 5-2 overall vs Tampa Bay last 3 years. Sonnanstine is 0-1 with a 6.75 ERA overall vs Philadelphia since 1997. We'll recommend a small play on Philadelphia tonight!
Tom Freese
Philadelphia Phillies at Tampa Bay Rays
Prediction: Tampa Bay Rays
Tampa Bay is 45-17 their last 62 home games vs. teams with a winning and they are 80-33 their last 113 home games. The Rays are 6-1 in the last 7 starts made by Andy Sonnanstine as home favorites. Philadelphia is 16-35 their last 51 Interleague games vs. righty starters and they are they are 1-7 their last 8 games overall. The Philies are 1-7 their last 8 games vs. AL East teams and they are 0-6 after allowing 5 or more runs in their last game. PLAY ON TAMPA BAY w/Sonnanstine
Ben Burns
Minnesota Twins at Milwaukee Brewers
Prediction: Minnesota Twins
Mike Burns will be making his first-ever major league start in this one. Burns is already 30 years old but he has pitched in just 46 games (0 starts) in his MLB career. Burns has a 5.46 ERA in his career and opponents have hit .313 against him. He was called up from the Triple-A Nashville Sound to make this start. Even though Burns is 7-2 with a 2.55 ERA this season with Nashville, it's always a big jump going from the minors to the big leagues and Burns' career numbers at the MLB level prove that point. The only reason that Burns is getting this start is because Dave Bush just went on the 15-day disabled list with a triceps tear in his throwing arm. A bit of bad news for Burns here is that this is a home start and it's a day game. In his MLB career, Burns has an 8.71 ERA at home and an 8.18 ERA in day games.
Unlike the uncertainty that comes with starting a pitcher for the first time (like the Brewers are here), the Twins get to turn to a pitcher who has been very consistent for them this season. Scott Baker comes into this outing looking for his fourth straight quality start. Baker already faced the Brewers this season, delivering a solid start in late May. Baker's career numbers against the Brewers include a 5.01 ERA but that is misleading. Baker has held the Brewers to a .258 BAA and he has a 1.14 WHIP against Milwaukee in his five career starts versus the Brewers. Overall, some of Baker's numbers this season are also misleading as they are not reflective of how well he has pitched. Baker is 4-6 this season with a 5.22 ERA but he has a 1.12 WHIP and has held opponents to a .249 BAA. Baker also has 68 strikeouts versus just 13 walks on the season. This has included a run of 39 strikeouts and just three walks over his last six starts. Consider Minnesota
Freddy Wills
Chicago Cubs vs. Detroit Tigers
Play: Under 9
Tigers go for the sweep against the Cubs in Detroit here today. The Cubs have scored just 7 runs in their last 3 games of a 10 game road trip that started. They have left a total of 31 runners on base here.
The line opened at -120 in favor of the Cubs and Ted Lilly and with 58% of the betting public riding with the road chalk the line has fallen to -115 in most places. I think Vegas might be expecting a solid bounce back start from Galarraga who has struggled mightily here as of late.
A couple things going for Galarraga that sets him up for a solid pitching performance in my opinion. The Cubs are struggling particularly against RHP .269 and 3.05 R/9 innings in their last 5 games. Galarraga will also have the liberty of pitching during the day where he has had his most success this year with a 3.38ERA. Most importantly the Cubs have never faced Galarraga before which means they are going to struggle early to adjust to the RHP.
On the other side of the mound we have Ted Lilly who has just been pitching and pitching. He has to be a bit frustrated that in his last three starts he has 1 win despite a 0.98 WHIP and a 2.21 ERA. He also throws well during the day 2.59ERA vs. 3.42 at night. He is pitching his best baseball right now and owns a 5-2 record with a 2.78ERA over his last 10 starts. The Tigers are hitting just .211 off LHP in their last 10 games and they have a .180 average vs. Lilly in 89AB.
Worth Noting:
Under is 10-1 in Lilly's last 11 vs. a team with a winning record
Under is 9-3 in Barret's last 12 behind home plate vs. CHC.
Take Under 9