Tigers, Angels in a spiral
By Joe Nelson
With just over two months left in the MLB season there is still time for major changes to take place in the standings, particularly with the trade deadline still looming. The number of serious contenders should shrink in August and here are two teams in the American League that could fall out of the playoff picture in the coming weeks. Take advantage by going against these teams in many upcoming situations.
Detroit Tigers
While the Twins led the way in the American League Central most of the first half of the season, the Tigers appeared to be the team most likely to make a run to the top. As we enter July the AL Central appears to be a two-team race but the Tigers appear to be on the outside of that picture as Chicago has made a great run to the top of the division. Things could get worse before they get better for the Tigers even though this team is still well within striking distance as the road ahead looks challenging. Fading starting pitching, injuries, and the upcoming schedule look to be reasons to derail this squad.
While the rotation for the Tigers still resembles the April rotation used by Detroit, a lot has happened in between then and now. Justin Verlander continues to be the ace and the front-line starter he is expected to be. Max Scherzer has found his form and is delivering strong results even though he was in the minors for two weeks in May. Detroit is hoping the same impact can be found with Rick Porcello, the young starter who has delivered a disastrous second year after being a key part of last year’s successful team. Detroit has lost Porcello’s last two starts since coming back but he has shown improved command so there may be hope. Detroit had hoped Dontrelle Willis could provide something this season but he is no longer with the team and while Armando Galarraga made headlines earlier this season, he has been ineffective in the last two months and was also recently sent back to the minors. Jeremy Bonderman has been able to eat innings but he is being skipped this week in the rotation and he has not been able to recapture the success he had in previous years. Andrew Oliver made four starts but did not prove big league ready and the Detroit rotation will have problems keeping pace with the rest of the AL playoff contenders.
Injuries have taken a serious toll on the Tigers and it will be difficult for this team to survive the recent rash of ailments. Since the All Star Break three key players in the lineup have hit the disabled list. Brandon Inge could miss up to six weeks with a hand injury after being hit by a pitch and fracturing a bone. Magglio Ordonez might be out for the rest of the season after fracturing his ankle on a sliding play last week. Carlos Guillen will also miss time with a calf injury. His return should be expected in the coming weeks but the lineup is really short-handed right now. Injuries have also taken a toll on the pitching staff. The bullpen for Detroit was among the best in baseball for the first three months of the season but a recent slide has in part been impacted by injuries. Flame throwing set-up man Joel Zumaya is out of for the year after an in-game injury a few weeks back. Bobby Seay is hoping to avoid surgery but he has not been able to help the team this season. Zach Miner, who also has served as starter in the past, just underwent Tommy John surgery. The options are limited for the pitching staff and while young players like Austin Jackson and Brennan Boesch have enjoyed strong seasons, the current lineup can not compete in the American League.
The biggest reason to expect a fade from the Tigers may be the upcoming schedule. Detroit is playing in Tampa Bay this week and that is the first road series versus the AL East all season long. A trip to Boston is up next and in August the first 18 games will be against playoff contenders including seven games against the White Sox and four games at Yankee Stadium as well as the Angels and Rays visiting Detroit. September features home and away series against the Twins and the White Sox as well as a road trip to Texas. Detroit’s rise in the early months of the season was built with a favorable schedule including an interleague schedule that featured Arizona, Pittsburgh, and Washington. Look for Detroit to face a brutal month of August particularly with the key bats out of the lineup. Unless Chicago and Minnesota also falter, it is unlikely that the September division games will be meaningful.
Los Angeles Angels
The Texas Rangers are not a team with a storied history of locking down its opportunities in the American League West and the Angels have an incredible track record in this division. Still, things do not appear to be working favorably for the Angels and the gap with the division leading Rangers continues to grow. Oakland actually recently passed the Angels in the standings and even recent deadline deals may not be enough to put together a final push in Anaheim. Injuries have been an issue but the pitching staff has also taken a step back and the Los Angeles offense has not come close to matching the production of the past division championship teams.
The Angels let Chone Figgins and John Lackey leave in the off-season and neither move appears to have been overly detrimental as neither former All Star is having a great season with their new teams. The loss of Vladimir Guerrero took less criticism but the veteran has been a huge boost to division rival Texas and possibly the difference maker between these two teams. Hideki Matsui has provided solid at-bats at DH but he is not having a big impact and the re-signing of Bobby Abreu has not paid big dividends either as he has not had the same year that he enjoyed in 2009. A bigger blow has been Kendry Morales breaking his leg in a celebration in June and his absence from the lineup has been noticeable. Adding Alberto Callaspo at third base last week provides a nice upgrade to the lineup but it may be too little too late for this team. The Angels are normally one of the top hitting teams in baseball but this year the Angels rank 21st in batting average and OPS. Los Angeles is scoring 4.5 runs per game but the power and team speed are both down a notch from last season and it has not been enough to make up for shortcomings in the pitching staff.
The Angels got by with mediocre pitching last season but this year the offense has not been able to carry the load. Defensively the Angels have also taken a big step back with more errors than all but eight teams in baseball. Jared Weaver has delivered a great season at the top of the rotation but he has even struggled to pick up wins in recent weeks. Scott Kazmir has been a lost cause as he is back on the DL and was ineffective when healthy. Joel Pineiro has been solid of late and has proven to be a decent addition to the team and Ervin Santana has also had decent results, but neither is able to provide dominant outings. Swapping Joe Saunders for Dan Haren in the rotation should provide a slight upgrade but Haren’s Los Angeles debut got off to a rocky start, leaving after being struck in his throwing arm. Sean O’Sullivan also left in the Callaspo deal leaving Trevor Bell as the next best option in the rotation and ultimately the staff lacks enough consistency to make a major push in the division. The bullpen has also struggled all season with a 4.60 ERA and even worse numbers in recent weeks.
It is rare to see the Angels barely over .500 at this point in the season but that is the situation at present. Los Angeles has held virtually no significant home field advantage and the offense is batting just .255 in home games, a far reach from last season’s offensive output. Los Angeles is normally one of the top scoring teams in baseball but Los Angeles has scored four or fewer runs in 17 of the last 24 games. The Angels have actually been out-scored by 19 runs on the season despite still sitting just above .500 as even with a poor bullpen the Angels have been fortunate to win many one-run games. The Angels have a difficult road schedule the rest of the way traveling to Detroit, Boston, Minnesota, Oakland, Tampa Bay, and Texas yet this season. The closing schedule should undue the Angels even if they can hang around in August as the final 16 games of the season will all come against winning teams including a four-game set to close the year in Texas. At this point the Angels still have ten more games with the Rangers so anything is possible, but it is hard to be optimistic given the way the season has gone and knowing that Texas now has Cliff Lee added to the rotation.