Time to fade the Rays?
By Judd Hall
Hell froze over in 2008 when the Rays erased years of mediocrity with an American League pennant and a trip to their first World Series. Even though they fell to third place in the AL East last season, optimism was high that 2010 would be a great year for Tampa Bay.
That optimism has been warranted up to this point as Joe Maddon’s club has the best record in the game. Yet all is not well in the Trop right now. Tampa Bay has found itself in the middle of a slump where they have dropped five of its last eight tests. The most jarring issue in this slump was getting swept in three games by the once downtrodden Red Sox.
I’m sure that most of the Rays’ fans and backers at the betting windows will say there is nothing to worry about right now. After all, there is still four months left in the regular season and they hold a 3 ½-game lead over the Yankees at the time of release. While both of those points are true, the warning signs are there for all to see.
Tampa Bay’s starting pitching has been touted as the most impressive in the game today. It’s hard to argue against a rotation that has the best combined earned run average (2.93), tops in innings pitched (319.2) and are fourth in the big leagues in strikeouts (253).
What worries me about the Rays’ starting staff is the workload that they are taking on right now. They’re averaging almost seven innings per start after two months of play. Hurlers like Matt Garza and James Shields have proven they have what it takes to handle the wear and tear. The exact same thing can be said of Jeff Neimann and David Price. When it comes to Wade Davis…well…the jury is still out.
Davis has had some great outings in his first full season at this level, evidenced by wins at both Fenway Park and Yankee Stadium. But he has also had some suspect starts this year; look no further than his 3.2 IP performance on May 24 against the BoSox.
Does this mean that Davis is going to be a bust when all is said and done? Not in the least. Price went through a pair of slumps in 2009, which was his first full year at this level. And that isn’t even true since the Vandy alum didn’t escape the clutches of Durham until late May.
Should the pitching staff begin to tire out as the year progresses, then the Rays will have to rely on their offense to get wins. If the start of this season is any suggestion, then we could see a collapse. Tampa Bay is hitting just .254 as a team right now – easily the worst we’ve seen out of this team since they made the Fall Classic in ’08. And they are hitting .236 during this slump.
You can’t blame Evan Longoria (.321, 10 HR, 40 RBI) or Carl Crawford (.317, 23 RBI, 15 SB) for lack of trying at the plate. Carlos Pena, on the other hand, needs a hug or something to get his happy ass back in gear. Pena is hitting a mind-boggling bad .181 with just eight homers. To give you an idea how bad that is, Kansas City’s error guru Alberto Callaspo has seven home runs this year.
So how are we supposed to handle the Rays at the betting window? When it comes to next week, it’s going to be a bit of hammer and fade. They have a three-game set in Toronto that kicks off on Memorial Day. The Blue Jays have lived on the long ball a lot this season, which could be a good thing since Tampa Bay has allowed 36 four-baggers thus far. But the Rays do have the added advantage of going 4-2 at Rogers Centre in 2009.
A trip to Arlington for a three-game date with the AL West leading Rangers follows up the trip in Canada. Tampa Bay hasn’t had a lot of luck deep in the heart of Texas, evidenced by a 1-5 mark in 2009 and 7-11 over the last three years. What you could also consider in those games with the Rangers is playing the ‘over’ as it holds a slight 10-8 advantage in those tests.
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