Top 5 Biggest Early-Season Surprises
By JON KUIPERIJ
Being able to quickly identify teams and players exceeding expectations can be a big help in handicapping early-season baseball. Here are five surprise stories in MLB so far this year.
Tampa Bay Rays
The Rays were expected to be good, but to play the first month at a .720 clip (18-7) has to come as a surprise. So must the way they're doing it - with pitching. Tampa Bay's staff leads the American League with a 3.01 ERA through 25 games and starters Matt Garza, Jeff Niemann, Wade Davis and David Price all have ERAs under 3.00.
The Rays are also a scalding 9-1 on the road, including a four-game sweep at Fenway Park. Offensively, Evan Longoria (.347, five homers, 19 RBI) has wielded the big stick. Carlos Pena has added six bombs and 22 RBI, even if he's hitting only .224.
San Diego Padres
Who needs Jake Peavy? Without their ace from last season, San Diego has been the second-most profitable team to back in the early going, making 7.5 units for bettors this year with a 16-10 record through 26 games.
Their offense still doesn't scare anyone, ranked 19th in baseball through the opening month, but the Padres' excellent pitching has more than made up for it. Starter Wade LeBlanc has allowed one run in 17.1 innings and Jon Garland has a 2.06 allowance through six starts. San Diego's bullpen also shone in the opening month, ranking fifth in the bigs with a 2.74 staff ERA. The Holy Fathers are 10-4 at home.
Washington Nationals
Last April, the Nationals went 5-16 and were well on their way to challenging for the worst record in MLB history. This season, they own a 13-12 record through 25 games - their best start since moving to DC in 2007. And the best part for bettors is that they have been underdogs in all but two of those games, making 7.92 units for backers this year.
Washington isn't doing anything particularly well, ranking 21st in runs per game and 24th in team ERA. But the Nationals are winning the close games, evidenced by closer Matt Capp's league-leading 10 saves. Thirty eight-year-old Pudge Rodriguez is turning back the clock, hitting .400 through his first 19 games.
Doug Fister, Seattle Mariners
The biggest surprise in an otherwise disappointing start for the 11-14 Mariners has been the emergence of young starter Doug Fister. The 26-year-old righty has been Seattle's best starter so far - and that's saying something on a staff that includes Felix Hernandez and Cliff Lee (though Lee missed the opening month due to injury).
Fister, a Double-A reliever at the start of last season, leads all AL starters with a 1.29 ERA through five starts. He carried a perfect game into the sixth inning of his last start against Texas and left the game after eight innings with a 1-0 lead, but was denied his third win when the bullpen couldn't hold it.
Ubaldo Jimenez, Colorado Rockies
Mike Hampton, take note: pitchers can succeed in Colorado after all. Ubaldo Jimenez was nearly unhittable in his first five starts (actually, he was unhittable in one of them, no-hitting the Atlanta Braves April 17) and carried a 22.1 scoreless innings streak into Monday's start at San Diego.
Jimenez has been a solid young starter for a few seasons already, but a 0.87 ERA and 6-0 record through six starts couldn't have been expected from a hurler who carried a career 31-28 record into this season.