Top MLB Aces To Play And Fade
By Sean Murphy
Money makers
Phil Hughes, New York Yankees
Hughes was a first-round draft pick back in 2004 but it wasn’t until last year that he finally started to come into his own at the big-league level.
He went 8-3 with a 3.03 ERA, mostly working out of the bullpen in 2009. This spring, the Yankees decided to give him another shot at starting and it has paid off.
Through five starts, Hughes is a perfect 3-0 with a sparkling 1.69 ERA and 0.94 WHIP. Opponents are hitting just .157 BA against him.
Perhaps the best news for Yankees backers is that Hughes has sorted out his control issues, handing out only two free passes over his last two outings after tallying 11 in his first four starts of the season.
Of course, you have to be careful when betting the Yankees or you’ll end up swimming in juice. Keep an eye out for them as a mid-range favorite with Hughes on the mound.
Jeff Niemann, Tampa Bay Rays
Niemann has only one full MLB season under his belt, but he’s looking like a seasoned vet in 2010.
We saw flashes of brilliance from the big right-hander last season, as he went 13-6 with a 3.94 ERA in 30 starts.
Niemann has taken it to another level this year, posting a 2.23 ERA and 0.99 ERA through six starts. Opponents are hitting .198 off of him and he has recorded a strong 24:11 strikeout to walk ratio in 36 1-3 innings of work.
Of course, pitching for the best team in baseball doesn’t hurt his case either. The Rays offense has given him at least eight runs of support in four of his six starts.
Like with the Yankees, you have to watch out for steep prices with the Rays these days. It helps that Niemann is still a relative unknown.
Bankroll burners
Wandy Rodriguez, Houston Astros
Whether it’s due to injury or otherwise, Wandy has been having a tough time in 2010.
In each of his last three seasons, opponents hit .256 BA or worse against the Astros left-hander. This year, that number has jumped to .333.
He’s not missing many bats, recording only 23 strikeouts in 33 1-3 innings. That’s an alarmingly low number considering he struck out 193 in 205 2-3 innings last season.
Rodriguez battled back pain in late April and had a start pushed back in Atlanta because of it. Perhaps he’s still feeling the effects, as he’s allowed 19 hits and seven earned runs in two starts, spanning 8 2-3 innings since.
The key to betting Rodriguez has always been to back him at home and fade him on the road. For his career, he’s nine games over .500 at Minute Maid Park and 13 games under .500 everywhere else.
It may be time to re-evaluate that strategy as Wandy and the entire Astros staff, for that matter, are having trouble getting it done regardless of the setting.
Felix Hernandez, Seattle Mariners
The Mariners are one of the coldest teams in the league right now. The fact that their ace is struggling isn’t helping matters.
King Felix has gone winless over his last three starts and has posted some awful numbers in doing so.
Over that stretch, Hernandez has given up 20 hits and 14 earned runs in 14 2-3 innings pitched. His strikeout numbers remain up with 15 over that period, but he’s also issued 11 walks.
The books will continue to send out exorbitant prices based on his reputation alone. Two starts back he was listed as a -205 favorite against the Texas Rangers.
The window to fade the Mariners is getting smaller, as they’ll only stay cold for so long. The same goes for Felix. But for now, if you have the opportunity to line up against him with a mid-range underdog, take it.