Top MLB Pitchers To Play and Fade
By Sean Murphy
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All season long, I’ll isolate two starting pitchers to play and two to fade in a two-week window. I’m looking for pitchers that boast value. That means I won’t always be targeting Cy Young candidates.
Here’s a look at this week’s list.
Money makers
Clay Buchholz, Boston Red Sox
The Red Sox are heating up and Clay Buchholz has been a big part of their resurgence.
Through 11 starts, Buchholz is 8-3 with a 2.39 ERA and 1.28 WHIP. He’s gone a perfect 5-0 over his last five starts, allowing a grand total of four earned runs in 36 1-3 innings of work.
Perhaps the return of the Red Sox offensive swagger has had something to do with Buchholz new-found confidence. As a team, Boston is hitting .304 BA over its last 10 games. The Sox have scored at least eight runs in five of their last seven games.
It won’t be long before the value disappears with Buchholz. His winning streak won’t last forever, but for now, he’s a definite play-on pitcher.
Matt Cain, San Francisco Giants
With Tim Lincecum struggling, Matt Cain is looking more and more like the Giants staff ace.
Don’t be fooled by his 4-4 record, Cain is in a serious groove right now.
Over his last three starts, he has allowed just 10 hits and one earned run over 25 innings pitched. He has struck out 18 while walking only four over that stretch.
The fact that Cain is pitching well is nothing new. He’s been doing that for years. The difference is the Giants are finally giving him some run support. Cain has posted back-to-back victories and the Giants have scored nine runs in those two contests.
Cain’s next start will come against the Cincinnati Reds. He’s just 2-3 in six career starts against them, but I won’t be surprised if he evens up that record this week.
Bankroll burners
Ben Sheets, Oakland Athletics
The A’s rolled the dice by bringing in Ben Sheets and to this point of the season, it’s essentially been a wash.
Sheets started the year strong, allowing three earned runs or fewer in each of his first four starts. He’s been wildly inconsistent since, giving up at least four earned runs in four of his last eight outings and at least eight earned runs in two trips to the hill.
Despite his struggles, the A’s have still managed to win four of Sheets’ last six starts, bailing him out with their offense.
This isn’t a team that’s built to win on the strength of its offense, however. That leads me to believe it’s only a matter of time before that roll of the dice comes up snake eyes.
Sheets’ next start comes against the Los Angeles Angels Monday.
Nate Robertson, Florida Marlins
You might want to jump on the Nate Robertson fade train now because it’s hard to imagine the Marlins sticking with him for much longer.
The wheels have fallen off for Robertson, as he’s allowed at least four earned runs in three of his last four starts. This is a guy that has yet to make it past the sixth inning this season.
It’s remarkable that the damage to Robertson hasn’t been worse. He’s allowed more hits than innings pitched while posting an ugly 31-to-27 strikeout-to-walk ratio over his last 10 starts. That’s a dangerous combination.
Of course, it doesn’t help that the Marlins are just 6-11 over their last 17 games and coming off a three-game sweep at the hands of the Mets over the weekend. This is a team going nowhere fast and Robertson’s struggles are only adding to their woes.