Top MLB Pitchers to Play and Fade
By Sean Murphy
All season long, I’ll isolate two starting pitchers to play and two to fade in a two-week window. I’m looking for pitchers that boast value. That means I won’t always be targeting Cy Young candidates.
Here’s a look at this week’s list.
Money makers
Jason Vargas, Seattle Mariners
Who could have envisioned this type of turnaround from Jason Vargas?
He made 23 appearances, including 14 starts for the Mariners last season and went 3-6 with a 4.91 ERA and 1.33 WHIP. This is a guy that was cut lose by both the team that drafted him, the Florida Marlins, and the New York Mets in consecutive years.
Now here he is, 5-2 with a 2.88 ERA and 1.11 WHIP, despite pitching for an awful team in Seattle. As bad as the Mariners have been, they’re actually 5-3 in Vargas’ last eight starts. He’s been the picture of consistency, allowing three earned runs or fewer in each of his last 12 outings.
It’s not difficult to find value backing Vargas these days, as few bettors want any part of the Seattle Mariners unless King Felix or Cliff Lee are on the hill.
Hiroki Kuroda, Los Angeles Dodgers
Kuroda hasn’t won many ball games lately but based on his current form, he appears ready to go on a tear. After laboring through the month of May, Kuroda has apparently sorted out his issues here in June.
Over his last three starts he’s been outstanding, allowing just 13 hits and two earned runs while striking out 23 and walking only four over 19 innings of work. The Dodgers managed to win two of those three games. The only loss came this past Sunday night, as Kuroda was outdueled by Red Sox starter Clay Buchholz.
Keep in mind, June hadn’t been kind to Kuroda in his first two big league seasons. He had gone 2-6 with an ERA north of five in nine previous June outings.
Kuroda has done his best work late in the season, going 9-4 with an ERA of around two-and-a-half in 19 career starts in August and September. Perhaps he’s a little ahead of schedule here in 2010.
Bankroll burners
Ricky Nolasco, Florida Marlins
Once considered the Marlins ace, Ricky Nolasco is simply treading water at this stage of his career.
Nolasco has been wildly inconsistent over the last month or so and he’s been doing his team no favors. The Marlins are 1-5 over his last six starts and he’s lasted beyond the sixth inning only once over that stretch.
Opponents have simply been teeing off, collecting 48 hits off of him over his last 30 innings pitched. He’s been tagged for eight home runs over that stretch as well.
It’s no fun betting the Marlins these days. They’re 9-14 over their last 23 games. It seems the only time it’s safe to lay it down on them is when Josh Johnson gets the call.
For the time being, look to fade Nolasco when he finds himself in the favorite role.
Kevin Slowey, Minnesota Twins
When you can't miss bats on a consistent basis, you’re going to have a tough time winning games at the big league level.
Kevin Slowey is finding that out first hand.
Of course, when it comes the Slowey, you have to put more weight in where he’s pitching rather than who he’s pitching against. He’s settled in nicely in the Twins new pitcher-friendly ballpark, going 4-3 with a 3.80 ERA and 1.25 WHIP. Opponents are hitting just .263 against him at Target Field.
The road hasn’t been nearly as kind. Slowey has posted a 5.83 ERA and 1.74 WHIP, with opponents hitting .349 off of him away from home. Note that Slowey has lasted through the sixth inning just once in six road starts this season.
Slowey’s command has eluded him over his last two starts as he’s allowed 16 hits and 12 earned runs over 6 1-3 innings pitched. He was bailed out by his offense in a wild 13-10 victory this past Saturday in Philadelphia, but that’s the exception rather than the rule.
When you find Slowey laying chalk on the road, consider a play on the underdog. He’s simply not a reliable option away from Target Field.