Top MLB Pitchers to Play and Fade
By Sean Murphy
All season long, I’ll isolate two starting pitchers to play and two to fade in a two-week window. I’m looking for pitchers that boast value. That means I won’t always be targeting Cy Young candidates.
Here’s a look at this week’s list.
Money makers
Carl Pavano, Minnesota Twins
Few could have envisioned this type of season from Carl Pavano.
He’s already an 11-game winner, and is pitching as well as he has at any point during his 13-year career.
You could chalk it up to the Twins new home park, pitcher-friendly Target Field, but he’s also been getting it done on the road. In fact, Pavano’s numbers are slightly better away from home, where he has posted a 3.46 ERA and 0.95 WHIP (walks + hits per inning.
The Twins endured a lengthy slump, but appear to have turned the corner after taking three of four from the White Sox over the weekend. They should get Justin Morneau back in a week or so, and I don’t need to tell you the importance of his presence in the lineup.
Pavano continues to fly beneath the betting radar, and that’s no surprise considering he hadn’t won more than nine games in a season since 2004.
Johan Santana, New York Mets
If history is any indication, we can expect Johan Santana to stay hot for the rest of the summer.
His pre- and post-All-Star splits are staggering. Prior to the break, he’s a career 68-46 pitcher with a 3.37 ERA. After the break, he’s 61-19 with a 2.73 ERA. Last July, Santana posted a 1.82 ERA, 1.10 WHIP, and held opponents to a .220 batting average.
Santana is in superb form right now, having allowed only 22 hits and two earned runs over his last four starts, spanning 31 innings of work. He hasn’t lost a decision since June 26. He cooled off the red-hot San Francisco Giants in his last start on Sunday.
New York's offense has been stagnant lately, but with Carlos Beltran back in the lineup, and Jose Reyes expected to return on Monday, this will be a team to watch in the coming weeks.
Bankroll burners
Phil Hughes, New York Yankees
There’s nowhere to go but down for Yankees starter Phil Hughes.
He’s 11-2 through his first 16 starts this season, but his recent outings have left a lot to be desired.
Hughes has given up at least five earned runs in three of his last five starts. After posting victories in five consecutive trips to the hill from May 28 to June 19, he’s won just once in his last three outings. Since June 8, he’s allowed 43 hits and seven home runs in only 37 1/3 innings.
Is Hughes going to be a 20-game winner this year? Not likely. I still feel that he did his best work coming out of the Yankee bullpen last season.
We haven’t seen many cracks in the Yankees' armor this season, but fading them when Hughes takes the mound the rest of the way could be a wise decision.
Ian Kennedy, Arizona Diamondbacks
Prior to this year, Kennedy had never pitched more than 39 2/3 innings in a season at the big league level.
He’s already up to 111 1/3 innings pitched here in 2010, and we’re starting to see signs of fatigue.
On May 19, Kennedy was 3-2 with a 3.24 ERA. He’s won just one game in nine starts since, and currently sits at 4-7 with a 4.12 ERA. You would have to go back four starts to find the last time he made it through the sixth inning.
The long ball has really hurt Kennedy this season, and that should come as no surprise considering he pitches most of his games at hitter-friendly Chase Field. He’s been rocked for 19 home runs already this season.
Considering he’s listed at a -117 favorite against the Mets on Monday, there’s still plenty of value in fading the 25-year-old righthander.