Larry Ness
Perfect Storm
Seattle Mariners
Pitching Mismatch
San Francisco Giants
Seabass
Steam 100* Cubs
Yankee Capper
High Rollers Club
New York Mets vs. Pittsburgh Pirates
Pick: Over 7.5
For me, Betting the Over/Under in baseball is a lot like going to the dealership to buy a new vehicle. When doing so, you go there with a number in your head. If the salesman comes close to that number, or better yet beats it, you buy the car. When handicapping the total of a baseball game, the first thing I do is look at the game and pitching match-up days in advance and put a total on it myself. Then, wait until the lines are released and see how close I am to the number the oddsmakers came up with. Unlike buying a car, with betting when your line is in tune with the oddsmakers, you want to lay off. The advantage for me comes when my line significantly differs from that of the linesmakers.
In baseball, totals will go from 6.5 to 11.5, hardly ever higher or lower. Most games range between 8.5 and 9.5 and those are typically the games to lay off. When oddsmakers come upon a battle of aces, the line is generally 7.5. In a game where two not-so-great pitchers face off, or a rookie pitcher is up, or a hitter-friendly park hosts a battle of power hitters, the line will jump to the neighborhood of 10 to 11. The easiest thing to do is find a game that will go over 7.5 or stay under 11.5 and I love finding those games. Tonight is no exception...
Mets ace Johan Santana takes the mound to face the Zach Duke and the Pittsburgh Pirates. Both pitchers have shown some pretty good stuff this year... Santana is sporting a 7-2 record with an ERA of under 2 while Duke comes in with a winning record and ERA under 3. On paper, this looks like one of those games that should easily stay under the total but I just don't think it will for a number of reasons. Start with bullpens... The Mets have a great one, but they're tired right now and the Pirates exposed that last night. That is going to force Johan Santana to go deep into this game, which shouldn't be much of a problem for him. While I expect the Buccos to muster a few runs off the Mets ace, I believe he will dominate most of the game. Mets hitters are pounding Leftys this year to the tune of nearly 6 runs per game. I would expect that trend to continue tonight against Duke. I look for the Mets to hit Duke pretty good tonight and cause a fairly early exit. If they manage 4 runs off Duke, and another 4 scattered throughout the rest of the game against the Pirates bullpen, the Mets alone should go over the total of 7.5.
The Pirates offense is a wild card in and of itself. Regardless of who and where they are playing, and who the opposing pitchers is, this team has the ability to score runs. I'm certainly not counting on that against Santana, nor am I at all factoring that into my decision, but it is a nice ace to have up your sleeve.
I'm looking for a 8-3 Mets win tonight in the 'Burgh. Don't get nervous if this one is still scoreless after a few innings. As an added bonus, we are getting around +115 odds for the over! High Rollers, count on this one rolling over the posted total of 7.5
Brandon Lang
15 Dime Twins Run Line
5 Dime Dodgers
Free pick - Phillies
15 Dime Twins Run Line - Glad to be home, the Twins will be swinging the sticks tonight and should have no trouble running up the score against a Cleveland team that comes in off a tough home set against the Yankees. Minnesota has won eight of their last 10 at the Metrodome, and sends my boy Kevin Slowey to the bump. He'll be looking to become the third pitcher in the bigs with eight wins, and has been tremendous inside the Metrodome, going 6-0 in seven starts while getting an average of 10.13 runs of support.
He comes in after allowing two runs in six innings of a 4-2 win over the Red Sox last Wednesday so, he'll be feeling good about this one. Added confidence will come from the face he's already held the Indians to just one run over eight innings of a 7-1 victory back on April 25.
The Twins could use a sweep of this series before heading back out of town for a 10-game road trip after this series, and this is the perfect game to get things going.
Since the Twins took two of three in Cleveland back in April, and have captured seven of their last eight over the Tribe in the Twin Cities, I'll count on a blowout win tonight.
5 Dime Dodgers - We have the National League leader in runs looking for revenge after a series-opening loss, and I think that's motivation enough for us, quite frankly. The Dodgers were a dismal 3-for-14 iwth runners in scoring position last night, and though I'd like to think it was because they didn't arrive to LA from Chicago until around 5 a.m. Monday - after playing in the Sunday night game - I wonder how they got the runners on base if they were so tired. It was more so one of those games, and tonight they break out for an offensive onslaught.
Arizona's Danny Haren struggled at Chavez Ravine last season, recording a 10.38 ERA and lost both starts there. Meanwhile, Randy Wolf comes in sporting a 2-0 mark and 2.03 ERA in his last seven starts after allowing one run and six hits with seven strikeouts spanning seven frames last Thursday in a 2-1 win over the Cubs. Take the home team here, as the first-place Dodgers roll.
Yankee Capper
NHL PLAYOFF POWER PLAY
PITTSBURGH PENGUINS -150
MLB GUARANTEED GRAND SLAM
NEW YORK METS -150
MLB GUARANTEED GRAND SLAM
SAN FRANCISCO GIANTS -145
MLB GUARANTEED GRAND SLAM
TORONTO BLUE JAYS -160
MLB GUARANTEED GRAND SLAM
MINNESOTA TWINS -165
Stu Feiner
Boston Red Sox @ Detroit Tigers
Play: Tigers - 140
Porcello 6-3 on the year, 3-1 at home, 3-0 last 3 starts ERA of 2. Dice K has been shelled 0-3 on year, 0-2 last 2 start ERA of 10. All Tigers.
L.A Angels @ Toronto Blue Jays
Play: Toronto Blue Jays -1.5
Halladay 8-1 on year. Last 21 innings ERA 1.71, will shut down Angels. Saunders ERA almost 5 last 19 innings will get hit hard. All Blue Jays.
Cleveland Indians @ Minnesota Twins
Play: Minnesota Twins -1.5
Slowery has been perfect at home 6-0 this year. 7-1 overall, last 21 innings ERA 2.50. Huff has been shelled with an ERA of almost 12. All Twins.
MONEYLOCKOFTHEDAY
3 Units Angels/Bluejays Under 8
DR. GURU
12* SF GIANTS
SEABASS
20* Pittsburgh Penguins
50* Mets Under
50* Tigers
20* Rockies
20* Giants
20* Toronto Under
Primetime Sports Advisors
8-1 last 3 days
Rockies -134
Mets Under 7.5 -116
Al Demarco
5 Dime - New York Yankees - 1 1/2
Texas went 20-9 in the month of May, but it was a "soft" 20-9 when you consider nine wins came against Seattle and Oakland, two of the American League's worst teams, three versus light-hitting Houston, one of the cellar-dwellers in the National League, and seven against the White Sox and Angels, two clubs that were struggling mightily offensively at the time. On the other hand, against a good Detroit team, on the road, Texas went 0-3. And at home versus tonight's opponent, New York, the Rangers dropped two of three last week, getting outscored 23-10 in the series.
The Yankees return to the Bronx having won 15 of 19 overall, including eight of 10 at home. The offense has been fueled by hot streaks of late by A-Rod, Jeter and Teixeira (8 homers, 20 RBIs, .397 average during 14-game hitting streak), while the pitching has fallen into step behind ace CC Sabathia. New York's other high-priced off-season free-agent addition to the starting rotation, A.J. Burnett, just earned his first win in six weeks by beating the Rangers on the road in his last outing, scattering three hits and striking out seven in six shutout innings to improve to 2-1 lifetime with a 3.66 ERA in six career starts versus Texas.
Burnett's mound opponent tonight, Vincente Padilla, was pitching his best ball since joining the Rangers prior to landing on the disabled list with a strained shoulder May 16, going 2-0 with a 1.57 ERA in his previous three starts. The righthander, however, has not fared well in his career versus New York with a 5.51 ERA in three previous starts.
Twice in the past three weeks I've used the Yankees on the Run Line with Sabathia pitching and they've delivered wins. Tonight offers another opportunity to take a high-priced home favorite that's playing great and reduce them to near even money by laying 1 1/2 runs.
Dr Baseball
San Francisco Giants
Mike Lineback
KC Royals
Icecrusher
5* Penguins/Red Wings Over 5.5
Ben Burns
Annihilator
Phillies/Padres Under