Sports Advisors
NIT
UMass (24-10, 16-14-1 ATS) vs. Florida (24-11, 14-12 ATS)
Two-time defending national champion Florida, on a different tournament path this year but still having postseason success, rolled past Arizona State 70-57 last Tuesday as a 3½-point road underdog to make it to Madison Square Garden for this contest. The Gators have won and cashed in three straight NIT games – all by double digits – following a regular-season-ending 0-4 SU and ATS stretch that kept them out of the NCAA Tournament.
Massachusetts erased a 17-point deficit in the final eight minutes last Tuesday to stun Syracuse 81-77 as a seven-point road pup to reach the NIT semifinals. The Minutemen have been red-hot the past five weeks, going 9-1 SU and 7-3 ATS.
The Gators are 2-5 ATS in their last seven starts as a favorite, but they are on positive ATS runs of 13-4 after a spread-cover, 8-3 after a SU win, 18-7-1 at neutral venues, 17-7-1 as a neutral-site chalk and 35-17-1 in 53 non-conference outings.
The Minutemen are 9-3-1 ATS in their last 13 Tuesday starts, 5-2 ATS in their last seven against winning teams and 5-2 ATS in their last seven as an underdog. However, they’re on pointspread slumps of 1-5 as a neutral-site underdog and 0-5 against the SEC.
The “under” has cashed in all three of Florida’s NIT games and is also 6-1 in the Gators’ last seven non-conference games and 6-1-1 in their last eight after a SU win, but the over is 5-1 in the team’s last six at neutral venues. For UMass, the under is on streaks of 5-1 overall, 5-0 following a victory and 5-2 as an underdog. However, the over is 4-0 in the Minutemen’s last four against the SEC and 18-8-1 in their last 27 non-conference clashes.
ATS ADVANTAGE: FLORIDA
Mississippi (24-10, 14-15 ATS) vs. Ohio State (22-13, 16-14-1 ATS)
Ohio State, which lost to Florida in last year’s NCAA Tournament final, topped Dayton 74-63 Wednesday as a 7½-point home chalk to punch its ticket to New York. The Buckeyes have won and covered in all three of their NIT games – all in Columbus and all double-digit victories – following a 2-5 stretch (2-4-1 ATS) that killed their NCAA Tournament hopes.
Mississippi upset red-hot Virginia Tech 81-72 Wednesday as a seven-point road underdog for its third straight win and cover en route to the semifinals. The Rebels are 7-3 SU and ATS in their last 10 starts, including a current 5-1 run in which the SU winner has cashed in each outing.
These two teams have almost no history against each other, outside of a 67-62 Ohio State win as a three-point home pup in December 1998.
The Buckeyes sport positive ATS trends of 6-0 outside the Big Ten, 4-0 as a favorite, 4-1 against winning teams and 6-2 as a neutral-site chalk, but they are 2-6 ATS in their last eight against the SEC and 1-6-1 ATS in their last eight as a favorite of less than seven points.
The Rebels are on pointspread runs of 5-0 in non-conference play, 4-0 against winning teams, 6-1 on Tuesday and 4-1 after a SU win. The lone negative is their 3-7 ATS mark in their last 10 as a neutral-site pup.
For Ohio State, the under is 8-3 in its last 11 non-conference contest and 10-4 in its last 14 after a spread-cover, but the over is 4-0 with the Buckeyes a neutral-site favorite. For Mississippi, the over is on a 4-0 spree overall and is also 5-1 in its last six outside the SEC, 7-2 in its last nine at neutral venues and 19-7-1 in its last 27 after a SU win.
ATS ADVANTAGE: MISSISSIPPI
NBA
New Orleans (50-22, 45-26-1 ATS) at Orlando (47-27, 45-27-2 ATS)
The Hornets resume their six-game, nine-day road trip in Orlando when they take on the playoff-bound Magic.
New Orleans beat Toronto 118-111 as a 2½-point favorite on Sunday to improve to 6-1 SU and ATS in its last seven games, with the only setback coming on Friday in Boston. Going back even further, the Hornets are on a 13-4 SU and ATS run, and the winner has covered the spread in each of New Orleans’ last 21 games.
Orlando has stumbled a bit over the last two weeks, going 2-3 SU and ATS, though the Magic did crush Milwaukee 103-86 as a nine-point road chalk in its most recent game on Friday. Going back to mid-February, Stan Van Gundy’s squad is on a 15-6 SU run, but it has followed a 10-3 ATS run by going just 3-4-1 ATS in its last seven.
The Magic scored a mild upset over the Hornets in New Orleans on Nov. 19, winning 95-88 as a one-point road underdog. That extended a noticeable trend in which the underdog has cashed in eight consecutive meetings between these squads. What’s more, the road team is 19-7 ATS in the last 26 meetings, with the Hornets cashing in five straight trips to Orlando.
New Orleans has been sensational on the road going back to last year, posting a 28-13-1 ATS mark in the last 42 as a visitor. The Hornets are on further positive ATS streaks of 35-16 overall, 37-18-2 versus the Eastern Conference, 13-5 against the Southeast Division and 5-0 on Tuesdays.
Orlando is on a 9-3-1 ATS roll at Amway Arena, though it has lost two of its last three outright on its home floor. The Magic are also 4-1 ATS in their last five Tuesday outings.
The under is 7-1 in the last eight series meetings, with neither teams scoring more than 98 points in any of those eight contests. However, the over is 7-3-1 in the last 11 clashes at Amway Arena, 5-0 in New Orleans’ last five overall, 6-0 in its last six on the highway, 8-0-1 in its last nine against the Eastern Conference and 6-1-1 in its last eight on Tuesdays.
ATS ADVANTAGE: NEW ORLEANS and UNDER
Golden State (45-28, 33-40 ATS) at San Antonio (51-23, 34-38-2 ATS)
The Warriors continue their playoff push in a most difficult place, as they visit the streaking Spurs at the AT&T Center.
Golden State, which tips off a four-game Southwest Division road trip tonight, pulled away late on Sunday to knock off the Mavericks 114-104, covering as a five-point home chalk. The Warriors have cashed in three straight games and five of their last seven, but they’ve alternated SU wins and losses in their last 11 contests and haven’t won back-to-back games since a three-game winning streak in early March.
San Antonio rolls into this contest on a seven-game winning steak (6-1 ATS). The most impressive victory during the run came on Sunday at home, as the Spurs hammered the Rockets 109-88 as a 6½-point chalk.
Golden State has taken the first two meetings in this rivalry, both at home, prevailing 96-84 as a 2½-point favorite on Dec. 11 and 130-121 in overtime as a 1½-point chalk on Jan. 7. The host has won seven of the last eight in this series (6-2 ATS), and the favorite is 5-0 ATS in the last five. Finally, Golden State is just 1-7 ATS in its last eight trips to San Antonio.
The Spurs are 11-1 in their last 12 home games (6-5-1 ATS), including four straight wins (3-1 ATS) in the last four. Additionally, San Antonio is 4-1 ATS in its last five against the Western Conference and 4-0 ATS in its last four when playing on one day of rest.
Going back to New Year’s Eve, the Warriors have split their last 18 road games, but they’re 6-3 ATS in their last nine as a visitor. Also, Golden State is on ATS streaks of 4-1 against the West and 13-5 against the Southwest Division, but it is only 1-5 ATS in its last six on Tuesdays.
The over is 6-1 in the last seven series clashes overall and 4-1 in the last five battles at the AT&T Center. Also, the over is on streaks of 5-2 for San Antonio at home, 9-2 for the Warriors vs. the Southwest Division and 16-5-1 for the Warriors after a SU win. However, Golden State has stayed low in each of its last four road contests.
ATS ADVANTAGE: SAN ANTONIO and OVER
Denver (45-29, 40-34 ATS) at Phoenix (50-24, 35-36-3 ATS)
One night after a wild up-and-down affair in Phoenix, the Suns and Nuggets lace ‘em against each other once again, this time at the Pepsi Center in Denver in a key Western Conference clash
It was a tale of two halves in the desert on Monday night, as the Suns rallied from a 70-51 halftime hole and outscored Denver 81-47 over the final 24 minutes of action to secure a 132-117 victory and easily cover as a 5½-point home chalk. The Suns are on a 10-2 run, going 8-3-1 ATS in their last 12. Phoenix is playing on the road for the seventh time in its last nine games, going 4-2 in the previous six (2-3-1 ATS).
Denver had a five-game winning streak snapped with last night’s defeat, but despite the setback, George Karl’s club is 12-6 in its last 18 games and 11-4 ATS in its last 15 outings.
The home team is now on a 9-2 SU and ATS run in this rivalry, with the host taking the first three meetings this season. The last five head-to head clashes have been decided by margins of 15, 24, 17, 22 and 13 points, with the home club going 5-0 SU and ATS. In fact, the host has cashed in each of the last seven battles, and Phoenix is 1-4 ATS in its last five visits to the Pepsi Center.
Denver has been outstanding on its home floor this year, going 30-7 SU and 23-14 ATS. That includes an ongoing eight-game home winning streak (6-2 ATS). The Nuggets are also 5-2 ATS in their last seven against the Western Conference, but they’re just 1-6 ATS in their last seven against the Pacific Division and 1-4 ATS in their last five on Tuesdays.
The Suns are on ATS streaks of 7-0-1 against the West and 6-0 on Tuesdays, but they’re still only 5-9-1 ATS in their last 15 against the Northwest Division.
The under is 10-5 in Phoenix’s last 14 games against the Northwest Division. However, for Denver, the over is on streaks of 21-8 overall, 11-4 against the Western Conference, 9-4 when playing on back-to-back nights, 10-3 at home and 6-1 on Tuesdays. Also, each of the last five series meetings have topped the total, with the lowest-scoring of the bunch being a 233-point affair.
ATS ADVANTAGE: DENVER and OVER
NATIONAL LEAGUE
San Francisco (0-1) at L.A. Dodgers (1-0)
Matt Cain (7-16, 3.65 ERA in 2007) looks to put a frustrating 2007 season behind him when he takes the mound for the Giants against the Dodgers’ Derek Lowe (12-14, 3.88) in the middle game of a three-game series.
L.A., which closed out a disappointing 2007 season by losing 11 of its last 14 games, opened the Joe Torre era with Monday’s 5-0 whitewash of the Giants. San Francisco, meanwhile, has lost five of its last six going back to last year and is 3-11 in its last 14 road outings.
The Dodgers have won 20 of the last 29 meetings in this rivalry. Also, the home team has taken four of the last five clashes after the visitor had been on an amazing 14-2 run.
Cain allowed three earned runs or fewer in 23 of his 32 starts last year, including holding opponents to one earned run or fewer 11 times. But he was a victim of poor run support, as the Giants went 9-23 with Cain on the mound, including 3-12 on the road.
Cain went 3-8 with a 3.84 in his 15 starts on the highway last year, and 0-1 with a 3.00 ERA against the Dodgers. In his brief career, the hard-throwing righthander is 0-3 with a 5.96 ERA in five starts versus Los Angeles, including 0-1 with a 10.13 ERA at Dodger Stadium.
Lowe really struggled in the second half of last season, going 4-6 with a 5.23 ERA in 13 post-All Star break starts, as opposed to 8-8 with a 3.12 ERA prior to the break. At home, the veteran righthander went just 6-6 in 15 games (14 starts) despite a respectable 3.51 ERA.
Lowe hasn’t enjoyed much success against the Giants, going 3-5 with a 3.41 ERA in 10 starts, including 0-3 with a 6.17 ERA in games played in L.A. Despite those struggles, the Dodgers are 3-1 in Lowe’s last four outings against San Francisco, with Lowe recording a 1.93 ERA during this stretch.
The under is 6-2-1 in Lowe’s nine starts against San Francisco, while the Giants stayed under the total in 11 of Cain’s last 13 outings in 2007, including four of his final five on the road.
ATS ADVANTAGE: L.A. DODGERS and UNDER
AMERICAN LEAGUE
Boston (1-1) at Oakland (1-1)
Boston righthander Daisuke Matsuzaka (0-0, 3.60) opposes Joe Blanton (0-0, 4.76) for the second time in a week, this time on U.S. soil as the Red Sox and A’s resume their four-game, cross-continent series at McAfee Coliseum in Oakland.
These teams opened the 2008 season in Tokyo last week, splitting a pair of games at the Tokyo Dome. Boston rallied for a 6-5, 10-inning victory last Tuesday, with the A’s bouncing back for a 5-1 victory the next night. Despite those results, Oakland is just 3-11 in its last 14 games going back to last year (2-7 at home), while Boston has won eight of its last nine dating to the 2007 ALCS.
These teams split their eight meetings last year, with the host going 6-2. In fact, the home club is 10-2 in the last 12 meetings, and the Red Sox are 2-6 in their last eight games in Oakland.
In the opener in his native Japan last week, Matsuzaka struggled with his control, walking five and giving up two hits and two runs in five innings, though he did strike out six. Meanwhile, Blanton went 5 2/3 innings, allowing three runs on seven hits and one walk with three Ks.
Going back to last year’s playoffs, Boston is 6-1 in Matsuzaka’s last seven starts, but he has failed to go longer than 5 1/3 innings in any of his last five outings. Also, including last week’s game in Japan, Matsuzaka is now 0-1 with a 3.00 ERA in two starts against the A’s, walking seven and striking out 14. Finally, in his first big-league season in 2007, Dice-K went just 7-8 with a 4.02 ERA on the road.
Blanton went 7-5 both at home and on the road last year, but his ERA was markedly better at McAfee Coliseum (2.69) than it was on the highway (5.11). The burly righthander faced the Red Sox twice last year, giving up a run on four hits in 7 1/3 innings in a 1-0 home loss, while allowing a combined nine runs on 17 hits in 12 innings in a pair of no-decisions at Fenway Park, with Oakland losing both of those contests. For his career, Blanton is 2-1 with a 3.76 ERA versus Boston.
The under is 20-7 in Blanton’s last 28 home starts and 6-2 in the last eight Boston-Oakland battles at McAfee Coliseum. But the over is 7-2-1 in Matsuzaka’s last 10 outings overall and 4-1 in his last five on the road. Also, the over is 8-3-2 in Boston’s last 13 against the A.L. West and 8-1-2 in Oakland’s last 11 versus the A.L. East.
ATS ADVANTAGE: OVER
Vernon Croy
New Orleans Hornets vs. Orlando Magic
Play: Orlando Magic
20 Units, Take Orlando, We are getting great line value here Tuesday night with the Magic who already beat the Hornets on the road earlier this season despite hitting just 8 of 30 from beyond the arc. This is the Hornets 5th straight road game and the Magic come into this game well rested having not played since March.28. The Hornets are averaging just 39.2 rebounds per game over their last 5 games and they are just 2-5 SU in their last 7 games against Orlando. Orlando is 10-3 SU in their last 13 home games and I look for them to build on their 17 point win over Milwaukee. Make sure you get on my long term NBA run tonight.
Marc Lawrence
Play On: Houston Rockets
Note: Rockets invade Sacramento in a nice scheduling situation this evening, catching the Kings off a 13-point revenge win over Seattle on Sunday night with another revenger up next against the Clippers on Thursday. Meanwhile, Houston checks in off a 21-pont loss knowing they are 15-8 ATS on this court, including 11-1 as a favorite or dog of 6 or less points. Back the better team here tonight.
Greg Daraban
Boston at Chicago
With just 3 weeks until the playoffs this will be a great tuneup for both offenses. This will be an old fashion shootout as the Celtics and Bulls get together in the windy city. High scoring affair. Take Bos/Chi Over
Golden St at San Antonio
Not much to write about in this one except GS is in dire need of a win in the playoffs. Must respect the Warrior to cover the over adjustment by the Oddsmakers. The final west spot will be determined next week. The visitor keeps it close. Take 661 Golden St
2008-04-01 20:30:00
Jimmy The Moose
Game: Florida Panthers at Atlanta Thrashers
Prediction: Florida Panthers
Reason: Two teams that will miss the playoffs this season will meet up in Atlanta tonight. The Panthers were recently eliminated but this team will try and finish out the season on a strong note. The Panthers have won 5 of their last 7 games vs. a team with a losing record. Atlanta played and won last night and are 7-20 in their last 27 games played with 0 day rest between action. The Thrashers are 8-20 in their last 28 games vs. Conference opponents. The Thrashers are 10-23 in their last 33 games overall. Play on the Florida Panthers -.
Vegas Sports Pics
Massachusetts Minutemen + 4 over Florida Gators
UMass is 9-1 last ten games off winning at Syracuse 81-77 last round. The Minutemen rank eighth in the nation averaging 81.5 ppg. Their 24 wins ties for fifth most in school history.
Mississippi Rebels + 2.5 over Ohio State Buckeyes
Mississippi is finishing well going 6-1 last seven games off posting an 81-72 win at Virginia Tech last round, outrebounding the Hokies 46-23. Tech lost to No.1 UNC 68-66 in the ACC tourney.
MLB
Toronto (Halladay) + 150* over (at) NY Yankees (Wang)
New York lost all three Wang starts vs. Toronto last season. Jays are 7-1 last eight Halladay starts vs. the Yankees, Halladay posting a 1.77 ERA. They're 3-2 last five games at NYY.
LA Dodgers (Lowe) - 150* over San Francisco (Cain)
San Francisco went 2-14 first 16 Cain starts last season. Lowe won at the Giants 4-1 last Aril 7th allowing 4 hits over seven innings. Dodgers beat SF 5-0 Monday.
Bryan Leonard
Rangers (RL) @ Mariners (RL)
PICK: Mariners (RL)
You don't find many pitching mismatches like this one. Felix Hernandez should be in for a big year after the pressure of being the #1 starter has fallen on Erik Bedard. He bounced back with a solid 14-7 season a year ago and he really owned the Rangers. He was 2-0 with a 1.84 ERA against Texas last year. What was probably more impressive was a 15-1 strikeout to walk ratio against the Rangers. Texas managed just 8 base runners in 14.2 innings of work.
Vicente Padilla on the other hand actually regressed last year if that's at all possible. His strikeout per 9 inning mark was the worst of his career. Padilla was downright terrible on the road last season posting an ERA of 8.04 away from home. He posted a 7.20 ERA in 3 starts against Seattle and a horrible 11.00 ERA at Safeco Field. He allowed left handed hitters to post a .329 batting average, the second straight year lefties touched him for more than a .300 average.
Texas will be a good hitting ball club but the pitching mismatch here is just too large to ignore. We would rather take Seattle on the run line because of the much lesser price in a game which could be very lopsided.
PLAY SEATTLE - 1 1/2
Jack Clayton
Astros at Padres
Pick: Astros
This is a decent offensive team from Houston, with newcomer Miguel Tejada joining Carlos Lee and Lance Bergmann. Starter Brandon Backe has excellent control and had a 3.77 ERA in each of the last two seasons. San Diego has little offense, especially in this huge park. Play the Astros!
Gator
NBA Tuesday: Play Under NBA home teams where the total is 200 to 209.5 after 1 or more consecutive unders, with a team that averages 92-98 points per game against a team that allows 92-98 points per game after 42+ games 60-24 Under since 1996 (71.4%) PLAY: Philadelphia / New Jersey UNDER 202.5
Lenny Delgenio
Game: Toronto Blue Jays at New York Yankees
Prediction: Toronto Blue Jays
Reason: Play on Toronto at 1:05. Roy Halladay, at this price? Thank you very much! Yankees are consistently the most overpriced team in baseball, not to mention they lost a ton of money against righties at home last year (-$960). Chien Ming Wang was just horrible down the stretch last year with a 1-4 TSR including playoffs. The Yanks lost all three of his starts vs. Toronto in 2007. Halladay had a perfect 4-0 team start record in day games last year with an ERA of just 2.49. He has led the league in complete games three different seasons and has won 16 or more games in four of the last six seasons. This is a huge statement game for the Blue Jays, who have finished in third place in the AL East, behind the Red Sox and Yankees, eight times in the last ten years. Take Toronto.
MTI Sports
Game: Toronto Blue Jays at New York Yankees
Prediction: New York Yankees
Reason: Major league baseball teams that are supposed to get revenge on opening day have been a solid proposition. In fact, since the start of our database, the league is a perfect 11-0 as a favorite of more than 120 on opening day when seeking revenge for a loss in their final match-up from the previous regular season. The league has won by an average of 4.6 ppg in this situation, with seven of the eleven 3+ run victories. The league was 5-0 in this situation in 2005, 4-0 in 2006 and last season the Brewers got revenge by winning 7-1 as a 125 favorite and the Mariners got revenge by winning 4-0, also at minus 125.
The last time these two met, the Blue Jays upset the Yankees 4-1 as a 200 dog. This qualifies them for the opening day revenge system above. The Yankees are terrific on opening day, winning 9-2, 15-2 and 9-5 over the past three seasons. Wang will get the start in the last opening day in the history of historic Yankee Stadium – and it will be his 28th birthday. Wang was slated to start last season’s opener, but he strained his hamstring in spring training and was sidelined. The last time Wang faced the Yankees, Halladay was the opposing starter. New York was a 180 home favorite and the Jays prevailed 5-4 extra innings. With Jays’ closer BJ Ryan and third baseman Scott Rolen injured, it’s hard to understand why this line is so much lower. In Wang’s home starts, he’s usually laying a HUGE number. In 2006 and 2007 Wang averaged minus 207 at home. He is especially good when he faces a good starter. The Yankees are 9-1 at home with Wang when they are -170 or lower. Last season, they were a perfect 3-0 in this spot, beating the Red Sox with Wakefield by a 6-2 margin, beating the Diamondbacks with Webb by a 4-1 margin and shutting out the Red Sox with Schilling 5-0. Wang is INSPIRED by tough competition. He’ll be at his best on opening day. Lay the price.
MTI’s FORECAST: NY YANKEES 6 Toronto 2
Tom Freese
Game: Toronto Blue Jays at New York Yankees
Prediction: Toronto Blue Jays
Reason: Toronto is 10-4 in the last 14 starts made by Roy Halladay against the Yankees. Halladay has been very tough on New York at Yankee Stadium going 3-1 in his last 4 team starts with a 0.61 ERA. New York starter Chien-Ming Wang had a rough spring training allowing 14 runs in 15.2 innings of work. Look for Halladay and company crash the party on opening day in the last year of Yankee Stadium. 10* PLAY ON TORONTO + (Halladay vs. Wang)
Scott Spreitzer
Game: Toronto Blue Jays at New York Yankees Mar 31 2008 1:05PM
Prediction: Toronto Blue Jays
Reason: My first Tailor-Made Beatdown GOW of 2008 is a play on the Toronto Blue Jays with Halladay over Wang. Toronto has made some nice lineup adjustments that will have them in the postseason race this season. But this first tilt is all about pitching. Roy Halladay has been a Yankee-killer in his 24 career starts against the New Yorkers. He owns a lifetime, 10-4 record and 2.95 ERA, helping the Jays to a 15-9 mark. The Jays have won three of his last four starts at Yankee Stadium, and Halladay owns a nifty 0.60 ERA in those outings. The Jays also know they're normally going to get the righties' best, right from the opening pitch of the season. Halladay owns a 2.83 April ERA over the past three seasons, allowing the Jays to go 13-3 in those 16 starts. And, while he pitched well in spring training, his counterpart Chien-Ming Wang did not. The Yankee righty was pounded this spring for an 8.04 ERA and a hefty 16.62 WHIP in five starts. But slow starts are nothing new for Wang. In eight April starts, the Yankees are just 3-5 and his ERA stands at 4.74. But its against these Blue Jays where Wang truly struggles. In two home starts, Wang has been tagged for a 12.46 ERA against the Jays. Last year, in three starts overall against the Blue Jays, Wang was smacked for a 6.35 ERA. The line is ridiculously high, but then again, it's the Yankees. We'll grab the value with the underdog. The Blue Jays, with Halladay over Wang, is my first Tailor-Made Beatdown of 2008.
JEFFERSONSPORTS
TORONTO+152 (Halladay)
ARMVIN SPORTS
CBB
MASSACHUSETTS at FLORIDA Under 154
NHL
MONTREAL
MLB
NEW YORK YANKEES -159
Dave Cokin.
Nice matchup in the NIT tonight as Ole Miss duels Ohio State. These teams rate just about dead even, but the number has been shaded a bit to reflect the fact that the Buckeyes are the much more public team. Not surprisingly, the early money has come in on the OSU side. I'm more apt to fade the public choice in games of this ilk, and with the Rebels now getting a basket, I see some value in that side. Ole Miss plus the points is the choice.