Mr. A
Boston Celtics -7½
San Antonio Spurs -8½
Houston Rockets -2½
Gina
Phoenix Suns (50-24) at Denver Nuggets (45-29)
The home team in this series has won and covered the spread in the last five meetings. Go with the Nuggets in their house, Denver plays tough on their home court. The Nuggets have won eight straight games at the Pepsi Center, 30-7 this season and are 4-1 ATS in its last five battles against Phoenix at Denver.
Denver Nuggets
Boston Celtics - 7½
Denver Nuggets - 6
PPP
3% Florida
3% Boston
3% San Antonio
3% Phoenix
Hot Lines
MLB
Toronto at N.Y. Yankees -155, 9
Roy Halladay and the Toronto Blue Jays mean business. On the first day of Spring Training, the ace stepped up and told his team that this year was going to be different, that settling for third place wasn’t acceptable anymore.
Toronto’s built to win now and with newcomers Scott Rolen and David Eckstein in Doc’s corner, it’s hard not to like the makeup of this team. The Jays believe they can compete with Boston and New York at the top of the division and don’t want to waste any time proving it.
Don’t expect yesterday’s rainout to bother the Doctor much – he’s a complete professional and loves pitching on opening day, while after the way Chien-Ming Wang finished last season, it’s tough to know what you’ll get from him outside of a ton of sinkers.
Pick: Jays
N.Y. Mets at Florida -190, 8 1/2
The New York Mets’ pitching staff entices a lot of low over/unders, but their lineup has enough pop top totals day in and day out.
Yesterday the Mets put up seven runs on their own to help bettors who played over the eight-run total. Johan Santana threw a gem in his debut, allowing just three hits over seven innings while striking out eight, but today’s starter, Pedro Martinez, isn’t known for being nearly as sharp out of the gate. He showed he could still paint the corners at the end of last year and into spring ball, but now at 36 years old, he’ll likely be on a pitch count today.
The 6-foot-5 Rick VandenHurk gets the nod for the Marlins.
Pick: over 8 1/2 runs
NBA
New Orleans at. Orlando +1, 208
The Hornets are on fire right now, but how long can they keep it up? This will be the club’s fifth consecutive road game over an eight-day span, including a game in Toronto on Sunday which involves the extra hassle of crossing the border and going through customs.
Despite the schedule, the Hornets have won and covered in eight of their last 10 games, but if Orlando were to win tonight, it wouldn’t be the first time they ended a New Orleans hot streak. The last time these two teams faced one another, the Magic took a 95-88 win as a 1-point home dog after the Hornets started off their season on a 9-2 run. But they were stunned by the inside dominance of Dwight Howard and Rashard Lewis, who between the two of them scored 43 points and grabbed 22 rebounds in the win. This time, the Magic have the advantage of a three-day layoff while the Hornets are in the middle of a grueling trip.
Pick: Magic
Houston at Sacramento +2 1/2, 202
Everybody and their mother are on Houston in this game, but you might want to take a look at the home dog here. Even though the Kings aren’t having a winning season, Arco Arena is still a very tough place to play. Whenever you can get this team as an underdog in their own house, you have to take notice because they’re 11-4 ATS in that situation this season.
And there couldn’t be a better time to fade the Rockets. Back when they were in the middle of their winning streak, everybody was still found a reason to doubt the quality of the team – and now they’re proving those doubters right. Since the streak ended, they’re 3-4 straight up and 1-5-1 ATS.
Pick: Kings
Phoenix at Denver -5, 235 1/2
When were at the offices we saw the total for last night’s game in Phoenix, we thought there was no way they could play over a number like that, but 81 second-half points from the Nuggets took care of that. Tonight, the total is actually a point higher than last night’s gargantuan number and you have a back-to-back travel situation to boot.
We realize the last five meetings between the Suns and Nuggets have played over, but this total is bordering on ridiculous (despite last night’s result). Even if both teams score their offensive average, that only takes them up to about 220. Regardless of the scoring onslaught that took place last night, as a rational, functioning sports bettor, you have to take the under in this game. You don’t have a choice.
Pick: Under
Strike Points
4* Los Angeles -120
4* Boston -130
Marc Lawrence NBA Revenge GOY
Denver
Yankee Capper
2 Units - Oakland Athletics
2 Units - Chicago Bulls +7 ½
3 Units - Florida/Atlanta Over 5 ½
Vegas Runner 5* NIT GAME of the YEAR
UMass 5.0 vs Florida
**(BUY the 1/2 Point to +5....this one could easily get there on its own everywhere, just like it has at BODOG and we have already seen many Locals using that number, but its a key number in baskets and a game of this importance its just the sharp thing to do)**
We all know how well Florida has been playing in this Tournament and as much as I always try to consider current form, the Bottom Line is that you can't over-adjust your numbers because of a few games...and that is exactly what the oddsmaker has banked on the public doing which is why they have continued to inch this up more and more, but we haven't seen that one big movement that is telling of sharp money...and just the opposite, it appears that they are very adament about not allowing the Sharps to come in and take advantage of all that value on their own, and therefore leaving the books with the best of the number and only the Vig to show for it....especially with the beating they took in the NCAA's this Year with all the Favs...
We all saw how this number was sent out at 2/2.5 and even at that number, the oddsmaker had looked to protect the books, so where it stands now is just absolutely loaded with Value....
But Value alone don't cash tickets, instead it allows for a Profit over a length of time, so lets get to why else we should get to cash this ticket....truthfully, I believe that UMass is the Better Team, Playing close to home, and Winning....and thats the combination for a Winning Ticket....we see that not only was UMass higher in the RPI by "30" Spots, but they even had a tougher schedule...and I won't waste your time with all the figures but when you see the drop in production from Florida on the road compared to UMass....other than the Name, I really could have seen UMass FAVORED in this one....Florida will not have a big size advantage like they are used to and when it comes to maturity which is so huge down the stretch in big games....we found that its actually Men against Boys as far as experience is concerned for the key players who will determine the outcome....and Finally, the Pace that UMass is able to play at will provide a huge match-up edge for them in this one...
So lets go ahead and buy the hook if needed...even though if Umass is able to Perform up to their expectations and Florida to theirs...we will not be needing them because UMass will be moving on to the Championship Game.
EZ WINNERS
1 STAR:OAKLAND (+$121) over Boston
(Risking $100 to win $121)
(Listing Blanton only)
Oakland's Joe Blanton pitched pretty well and got a no decision in the loss to the Red Sox in Tokyo. He gets another shot at Daisuke here in the A's home opener. Boston has struggled recently when visiting Oakland as they are only 2-8 in the last ten meetings when visiting the A's. Both of these teams have to be tired after the long trip to Japan and Daisuke probably more than anyone after all of the media attention. I'll side with Oakland as the dog here with the home crowd behind them.
Strike Points Sports
4* Los Angeles -120
4* Boston -130
JEFFERSONSPORTS FULL CARD
NBA
SAN ANTONIO-8
DENVER-7
MLB 1-0 +1.90 units
MINNESOTA+118
TORONTO+152 (earlier)
NHL
OTTAWA-145
BUFFALO-135
Seabass Baseball
10 Minnesota
10 Florida
20 SF
10 Tor/NYY over
Dr. BOB
NIT Opinions
Massachusetts (+4 ½) over Florida
Florida is certainly a better team now than they were at the beginning of the season, but my ratings only favor the Gators by 3 points against U Mass even if I don’t use their November and December games. The oddsmakers opened this line at 3 points, so there is validation that 3 is the fair line on this game. The Gators are now a 4 ½ points favorite, which makes the Minutemen the value play. Florida does have a very good track record in post-season games in recent years, so I’ll just lean with U Mass plus the points.
I have no opinion on Mississippi-Ohio State, since my ratings also favor Ohio State by 2 ½ points.
FRANK ROSENTHAL
NBA HOOPS
653 76ERS PK SB
660 BULLS+7 SB
661 WARRIORS+9 SB
664 NUGGETS-6 SB
OVER 235 SB
COLLEGE HOOPS NIT
667 UMASS+4.5 SB
UNDER 156 SB
670 OHIO ST-2 SB
OVER 140.5 SB
MAJOR LEAGUE BASEBALL
956 DODGERS-160 SB
OVER 7 SB
965 ROCKIES+110 SB
Vegas Runner Added
ORL 2.0 vs NOH
3* NBA BEST BET of the DAY
**(BUY the 1/2 Point to +2)**
Just a great number to get with the home team in this one, with the Hornets playing their 5th Straight Road Game since the 25th....Orlando has lost their last "2" Home Games and are 23-14 there this year, so look for them to end that and get the win this evening....
Also, all of the books I spoke to have said that they are getting pounded with Hornets action which was surprising to me after capping this one...and I know that the Sharps are hoping that this number gets driven above 2 and then you will see them send the Buy Order on the Magic.