The Sports Advisors
Orlando (50-30, 48-29-3 ATS) at Atlanta (37-43, 37-42-1 ATS)
One night after locking up their first playoff berth in nine years without even playing, the Hawks figure to be all smiles tonight when they host playoff-bound divisional rival Orlando in a game that’s completely meaningless to both teams.
Atlanta was assured of its first trip to the postseason since 1999 when Washington beat Indiana last night in D.C., officially eliminating the Pacers from playoff contention. The Hawks are locked into the No. 8 seed and will face the Celtics in the opening round. Meanwhile, the Magic are set in the No. 3 spot in the East and will take on the Raptors in Round 1.
Atlanta is coming off Saturday’s 99-89 loss at Boston, failing to cash as a three-point home chalk. The Hawks have alternated SU and ATS wins and losses in their last six games, but they’re still 11-5 in their last 16 outings (9-7 ATS).
Like the Hawks, Orlando has been very inconsistent of late, alternating wins and losses in its last eight contests (4-3-1 ATS). In their most recent game on Sunday, the Magic pummeled the Bulls 104-84 as a three-point road chalk to secure their first 50-win season since 1995-96.
Atlanta is on a 4-1 SU and ATS roll against the Magic, going 2-1 SU and ATS this year and 5-1 ATS in the last six when hosting Orlando. That includes the Hawks’ 98-90 victory as a one-point home underdog in this year’s lone previous meeting in Atlanta. The host has cashed in six of the last eight meetings, and the SU winner has covered the pointspread in each of those eight contests.
The Hawks are just 1-4 ATS in their last five at home, 0-4 ATS in their last four on Tuesday and 2-5 ATS in their last seven divisional contests. On the bright side, Atlanta has cashed in five consecutive games after a SU defeat.
Going back to the end of last year, the Magic have been a tremendous bet on the road, going 30-14-2 ATS (26-14 ATS this year). Stan Van Gundy’s squad is also on pointspread hot streaks of 4-1 on Tuesdays, 9-3 when playing on one day of rest and 11-5 against Southwest Division foes.
The Hawks have followed up a 10-2 “over” streak by staying under the number in three of their last four. Also, the under is on streaks of 6-2 in this rivalry overall, 5-1 when the two squads face off in Atlanta, 7-0 for the Magic overall, 6-0 for the Magic on the road, 12-4-1 for the Magic against divisional rivals and 15-7 for the Hawks in divisional battles.
ATS ADVANTAGE: ATLANTA and UNDER
Sacramento (38-42, 43-36-1 ATS) at L.A. Lakers (56-25, 46-33-1 ATS)
After a pair of impressive home victories over the Hornets and Spurs over the weekend, the Lakers now only need to defeat the Kings in their regular-season finale tonight to secure the top seed and home-court advantage throughout the Western Conference playoffs.
Los Angeles held off the Hornets 107-104 on Friday night, then came back Sunday and pummeled the Spurs 106-85, breaking open a game that was tied at halftime. The Lakers have won three in a row and seven out of eight, but despite easily covering as an eight-point favorite against the Spurs on Sunday, L.A. is still just 3-7 ATS in its last 10 games overall and 1-7 ATS in its last eight at home.
Despite just playing out the string, the Kings have been more than competitive lately, winning two in a row and six out of eight (7-1 ATS). That includes Saturday’s 94-91 upset of the Hornets as a 12-point home underdog – a victory that helped out the Lakers, who now lead the Western Conference by a half-game over New Orleans. Because the Lakers own the head-to-head tiebreaker versus New Orleans, a win tonight gives the Lakers the No. 1 seed.
Los Angeles is 7-3 SU and ATS in its last 10 meetings with the Kings, as the winner has cashed in each of those contests. However, the road team has dominated this rivalry of late, winning six of seven, including the last four in a row. In this year’s lone battle at the Staples Center in L.A., Sacramento pulled off a stunning 114-113 upset win as a 13½-point road underdog.
The Kings head to Hollywood sporting a bunch of positive pointspread streaks, including 7-1 overall (3-0 last three), 12-3 on Tuesdays and 4-0 on the road. Meanwhile, the Lakers are 17-5 ATS in their last 22 against Pacific Division rivals, 9-3 ATS in their last 12 on Tuesdays and 12-4 ATS in their last 16 games against losing teams.
The over is 19-7-1 in the last 27 meetings overall and 10-3 in the last 13 head-to-head clashes in Los Angeles. The over is also 5-0 in the Kings’ last five road games and 7-3 in the Lakers’ last 10 games on Tuesday.
ATS ADVANTAGE: L.A. LAKERS and OVER
NATIONAL LEAGUE
Cincinnati (6-7) at Chicago Cubs (7-5)
Two N.L. Central foes renew their rivalry for the first time in 2008, as the Reds send ace Aaron Harang (1-1, 2.14 ERA) to the hill to battle the Cubs’ Ryan Dempster (1-0, 0.69).
Cincinnati took Monday off after getting swept over the weekend in Pittsburgh, losing a pair of one-run games on Friday and Saturday, then getting blasted 9-1 on Sunday. The Reds are 2-4 on the road this year. Also, they’re in funks of 2-6 on the road (2-4 this year) and 2-6 as a favorite.
The Cubs capped a 4-2 road trip with Sunday’s 6-5, 10-inning victory in Philadelphia. Going back to April 5, Chicago is on a 6-2 roll.
These teams split their 18-game season series last year, though the Cubs did win three of the last four. Also, the road team went 7-4 in their final 11 battles of 2007.
The Reds improved to 16-5 in Harang’s last 21 road starts and 20-6 in Harang’s last 26 as a road underdog when the hard-throwing right-hander dominated the Brewers in Thursday’s 4-1 victory in Milwaukee. Harang, who gave up just a run on five hits with no walks and three strikeouts against the Brewers has surrendered just five earned runs in three starts spanning 21 innings.
Harang is 8-3 with a 4.44 ERA in 15 career starts against Chicago, including 4-0 with a 4.65 ERA in eight outings at Wrigley Field. Last year, he faced the Cubs six times, going 3-2 with a 4.76 ERA. One more positive for the Reds: They’re 5-0 in Harang’s last five starts at Wrigley.
Dempster has made a very successful transition from the bullpen to the starting rotation thus far, yielding just two runs (one earned) on four hits and four walks with 10 strikeouts in two starts spanning 13 innings. One Wednesday in Pittsburgh, Dempster threw seven shutout innings and gave up just a single hit and two walks, with the Cubs needing 14 innings to pull out a 6-4 victory. In his one home start this season, Dempster held the Brewers to two runs (one earned) on three hits in six innings, winning 6-3.
Dempster is 3-3 with a 5.00 ERA and five saves in 31 appearances (seven starts) against the Reds. He hasn’t started against Cincy since 2005 when with the Marlins.
The under is 6-1 in Harang’s last seven starts overall. Also, the under is 4-1 in the last five series meetings and 5-2 in the Reds’ last seven overall. However, the over is 4-2 in Chicago’s last six overall.
ATS ADVANTAGE: UNDER
AMERICAN LEAGUE
Boston (8-6) at Cleveland (5-8)
One night after watching closer Joe Borowski implode in a tough loss to Boston, the Indians will try to bounce back when they send Paul Byrd (0-2, 11.05) to the mound opposite knuckleballer Tim Wakefield (1-1, 3.27) in battle of grizzled veterans.
Borowski blew a 4-3 ninth-inning lead on Monday night, giving up four hits and three runs in just 2/3 of an inning to lose 6-4. Cleveland has lost eight of its last 11, including four of the last five overall and four of five at home. Meanwhile, Boston is now in the midst of its first three-game winning streak of the season.
The Red Sox are now 10-5 against the Tribe since the start of last season, including four straight wins going back to Game 5 of last year’s American League Championship Series. Going back even further, Boston is 12-5 in its last 17 games in Cleveland.
Byrd got pummeled in Thursday afternoon’s 9-5 loss at the Angels, giving up six runs on five hits (three earned runs) over just three innings. The right-hander, whose first two starts have come on the road, returns to Progressive Field, where he went 8-4 last year despite a beefy 5.68 ERA.
Byrd is 4-2 with a 4.12 ERA in seven career outings against the Red Sox, Last year, he faced them twice, giving up two runs (one earned) in six innings in an 8-4 road win in May, then allowing two runs on six hits in five innings in a 7-3 playoff victory in mid-October. Cleveland is 3-1 in his four starts against Boston the last two years (2-0 at home).
Wakefield wobbled a bit in Thursday’s home start against Detroit, yielding three hits and five walks over five innings, but he surrendered just two runs (one earned) and recorded a 12-6 victory.
Wakefield is 9-8 with a 4.50 ERA In 23 games (18 starts) against the Indians, including 5-4 with a 4.64 ERA In 11 appearances (10 starts) in Cleveland. However, last year Wakefield faced the Indians (once in the regular season, once in the playoffs), and went 0-2 with a 6.97 ERA.
The over is 6-1-2 in Byrd’s last nine starts overall, 7-1-1 in his last nine at home, 3-0-1 in his last four against Boston and 5-2-2 in Wakefield’s last nine overall. Furthermore, including last night’s high-scoring affair, the over is 6-1-2 in the last nine series meetings.
ATS ADVANTAGE: OVER
Dave Cokin.
MIN Twins and DET Tigers.
Take DET Tigers.
The Tigers finally got their dormant offense untracked Monday night as they exploded against the Minnesota bullpen in a much needed come from behind win. I think the way they won that game could provide some positive momentum that gets them going. Nate Robertson is hardly ace material, but he matches up okay against Scott Baker of the Twins, and I'm banking on the Detroit offense to put up some good numbers tonight. The Tigers are the choice tonight."
Jim Feist.
MIN T'wolves andDET Pistons.
Take Over.
Who cares about defense the final two games of the regular season? The Pistons won't, just trying to stay healthy as they are locked into the No. 2 seed. Minnesota doesn't, with vacation starting in two days. In fact, the Timberwolves are 9-4 over the total the last 13 games. Minnesota gives up 104 ppg on the road and the only meeting between these teams went over. Don't look for any defense, play the Timberwolves/Pistons over the total!
Reply With Quote
Vernon Croy
Oakland Athletics vs. Chicago White Sox
Play:Oakland Athletics
The A's are playing great team baseball to start the season and they are 5-1 on the road this season coming into Thursday's nights action. The A's have the superior starter on the mound with Eveland who has an ERA of just 0.68 over two starts this season in which he has averaged 6.7 innings per start against very good hitting teams. (Toronto and Cleveland) John Danks has struggled for the White Sox so far this season with an inflated ERA of 8.00 over two starts and he has only lasted an average of 4.5 innings per start. The White Sox are hitting just .239 as a team at home so far this season and there si simply too much value here with Oakland Tuesday afternoon.
Alex Smart
New Orleans Hornets -15.0
The New Orleans Hornets have been slumping at the worst possible time, as they continue to jostle for the No.1 seed in the west with the regular season coming to an end. Im predicting their struggles come to an abrupt halt tonight against a visiting LA Clippers team that has lost 24 of their L/28 games, including 5 losses in a row. The Clippers during their latest losing skid have allowed 112 points per game, while getting out scored by an average of 18 points per game. With the Hornets very much needing a big performance tonight, I expect they will come out with all cylinders firing , in an effort to take this contest convincingly, in give themselves some much needed momentum heading into the playoffs. Note: New Orleans has won all 3 meetings SU/aTS in this series this season, by an average of 14 PPG, and tonight nothing changes, as Im predicting an even bigger margin of victory. Final notes & Key Trends: Clippers are 0-5 ATS in the last 5 meetings . Play on New Orleans in a romp
VEGAS EXPERTS TIP OF THE DAY
Milwaukee Brewers at St. Louis Cardinals
Brewers starter Dave Bush owns an atrocious 4-16 team start record as a road underdog. He is off back-to-back poor starts and his ERA is at 8.44. Bad news when facing a St. Louis team whose starters began the year by going 5-0 in the team's first six games with an ERA of 0.96. All those games were at home where they return to tonight off a mediocre road swing. Redbirds starter Braden Looper owns a 6-0 team start record as a home favorite of -125 to -175.
Play on: St. Louis
Matt Fargo
Boston Red Sox vs. Cleveland Indians
Play: Boston Red Sox
The win by Boston last night is a huge momentum boost as the Red Sox scored three in the ninth to continue their run over Cleveland. They would like nothing more than to sweep this short two-game set before heading to New York and facing the Yankees once again. Boston has won three straight and the offense continues to make strides. The team has hit .300 or better in four of its last five games. The Red Sox have now taken four straight in this series and have won 11 of the last 16 meetings in Cleveland.
While that win helps the Red Sox, it does just the opposite for the Indians and coming off that loss will be tough tonight. Cleveland has dropped eight of its last 11 games and is currently 1-3 during this recent homestand. The struggling offense cane be to blame one again just as much as the bullpen. Cleveland is hitting just .241 on the season and the Indians have put up an average of 3.7 rpg over their last 11 games. Cleveland is now 2-8 in its last 10 against a team with a winning record.
This is a pitching rematch of Game Four of the ALCS from last season with Cleveland coming away the winner and taking a 3-1 lead in the series. Tim Wakefield sure remembers that as it was one of his worst performances of the season. He is coming off a solid effort against the Tigers in his last start as he allowed one earned run on three hits in five innings of work. His command was off however as he walked five but don’t expect a repeat of that as his strong command is what makes him as good as he continues to be.
The winning pitcher that night was Paul Byrd but he has not been the same since. He has gone just 7.1 total innings in his first two starts. Byrd allowed five runs, three earned, in 4.1 innings against Oakland in his first outing and then allowed six earned runs against the Angels last time out. The thing is, it has been like this since the start of the spring as he posted a 5.81 ERA and 1.56 WHIP in six starts. Until he starts putting something together, he remains great fade material. Play Boston Red Sox 1.5 Units
Marc Lawrence
Play On: NY Yankees w/Pettite
Note: The Pinstripes take on the Rays in the final game of this mini two game set in Tampa knowing that Andy Pettite is 15-5 in his career team starts in this series. He's also 9-3 in his last 12 team starts on Tuesdays. With the Bronx Bombers bats coming alive, we'll back the big lefty and the Yankees here tonight.
BRAD DIAMOND SPORTS
Play on: St. Louis over Milwaukee
The Brew Crew has been playing solid baseball in the early going, but they travel off a road series in New York to the confines of Bush Stadium. With the Cardinals playing at the top of their game during April, I’ll support the small chalk on Tuesday. St. Louis has won 7 of 8 in the series and 4 of 5 at home versus Milwaukee. St. Louis is 5-0 at home and 4-0 off a loss. Lastly, the Brew Crew is 0-5 in RHP Bush’s L5 road outings which allows for the St. Louis conclusion.
Big Al Mcmordie
Washington Nationals at New York Mets
Prediction: Washington Nationals
Reason: At 7:10pm ET our member selection is on the Washington Nationals over the New York Mets. The thing that Nationals lefthanded starter Odalis Perez may be most known for when all is said and done with his career is that he was the hurler who threw out the first pitch at Washington's new park. With a lifetime 66-72 record and 4.48 ERA, Perez certainly won't be remembered for any major accomplishments on the mound, at least to this point. Recently, however, Perez has pitched much better than his current ERA would indicate. In fact, if not for a bad outing in his second start of the year against the Cards on April 4, Perez has only given up a total of five earned runs in his four other starts covering 20 2/3 innings. Perez gets the added bonus of facing perhaps the weakest Mets starter in righthander Mike Pelfrey, whom the Nats beat up pretty good in his last start against them back on September 24, 2007. In fact, Washington did very well last season against the Mets at Shea Stadium, taking six of the nine games played there between these two teams, including the last three of the season. Mets All Star shortstop Jose Reyes has a tender hamstring and may not play in this game. Even if he does, he almost certainly will be less than 100 percent. Take the underdog Nationals.
Jimmy The Moose
Game: Minnesota Timberwolves at Detroit Pistons
Prediction: Minnesota Timberwolves
Reason: Minnesota is 3-1 ATS in their last 4 games. In their last 21 games vs. Eastern Conference opponents the Timberwolves are 16-5 ATS. Minnesota is 5-2 ATS in their last 7 games vs. NBA Central Division opponents. The Pistons starters won't play very much. Detroit is 2-7 ATS in their last 9 games vs. a team with a losing record. The Pistons are 2-8 ATS in their last 10 vs. team's from the NBA Northwest division. The Timberwolves are 1-2 SU and 2-1 ATS in the last 3 meetings. Play on the Timberwolves +.
Cappers Access
White Sox
Texas
Nets
THE POWER INDEX
NBA
Atlanta* .5 over Orlando
New Jersey* 3 over Charlotte
Detroit* 12.5 over Minnesota
New Orleans* 16 over L.A. Clippers
Portland* 8 over Memphis
L.A. Lakers* 10.5 over Sacramento
NHL
Montreal (-122) .5 over Boston* (+122)
Philadelphia* (-105) even with Washington (+105)
Dallas* (-154) .5 over Anaheim (+154)
Calgary* (-121) .5 over San Jose (+121)
Colorado* (-132) .5 over Minnesota (+132)
DCI
NBA
Orlando 102, ATLANTA 101
NEW JERSEY 100, Charlotte 97
DETROIT 101, Minnesota 87
NEW ORLEANS 106, L.A. Clippers 87
PORTLAND 105, Memphis 96
L.A. LAKERS 115, Sacramento 104
NHL
Eastern Conference Quarterfinals
Game 4, best-of-7
Montreal vs. BOSTON: TOO CLOSE TO CALL
Game 3, best-of-7
Washington vs. PHILADELPHIA: TOO CLOSE TO CALL
Western Conference Quarterfinals
Game 4, best-of-7
COLORADO 3, Minnesota 2
San Jose vs. CALGARY: TOO CLOSE TO CALL
Game 3, best-of-7
Anaheim vs. DALLAS: TOO CLOSE TO CALL
TONY WESTON
Im looking at Motown and I?m looking at the Timberwolves and Pistons.
While the Pistons have nothing to play for, as theyre locked in as the No. 2 seed in the Eastern Conference postseason, theyve still been killing their competition lately.
With a good number of their regulars getting an abundance of rest down the stretch, the Pistons are still 7-2 SU and 5-4 ATS their last nine. Over their last six games the Pistons are 4-2 ATS and SU and won their last two by 28 points seven points against playoff teams Toronto and Washington.
The Timberwolves, on the other hand, are only 3-4 ATS and 2-5 SU their last seven games. Minnesota is also only 3-3 ATS and 2-4 SU its last six games on the road, while the Pistons are 4-1 SU and ATS their last five games at home.
Detroit gets an easy win in its last home game of the regular season.
Take the Pistons at home.
3* PISTONS (1* to 5* Scale)
Bobby Maxwell
Milwaukee might have found a new star to go along with the ones they've got as Gabe Kapler has found his stroke again after spending last year as a minor league manager in the Boston Red Sox organization. The Brewers have won three straight and Kapler is off to a hot start with four homers and 11 RBIs.
Kapler's hot start has allowed the Brewers to withstand the slow starts of Prince Fielder and Ryan Braun.
The Cardinals' starting pitching has slowed down from a hot 5-0 start as they've gone 2-2 with a 5.82 ERA in the last seven. Braden Looper (2-0, 3.09 ERA) was touched up a big against Houston on Wednesday, giving up three runs on five hits in 5.2 innings. And against the Brewers he is 3-4 lifetime with a 4.93 ERA. Last season he went 1-2 against Milwaukee with a 7.88 ERA.
Dave Bush (0-2, 8.44 ERA) goes for the Brewers and is pitching for his job. He's the top candidate to be sent down to the minors when Yovani Gallardo gets healthy. The Brewers are 4-1 in their last five following a victory and look for their bats to do the talking in this one.
Play the Brewers to win this one, but it might be a slugfest. Look for something in the 7-5 range before this one is settled.
4* MILWAUKEE