JEFF MONEY
Dallas Stars
BaseballTotals
Arizona/San Francisco Over 7.5
JerseySteveWins
New Jersey -3
2-Minute Warning
ATLANTA (JURRJENS) over Florida (Olsen)
Dave Malinsky 3*
Minnesota Twins (HT) @ Detroit Tigers
SPORT: MLB First 5 Innings
PICK: Detroit Tigers (HT)
As tough as it was to lose that 4* ticket with the Twins on this field last night, seeing exactly how it happened can put us in the right place at the right time here - the energy the Tigers maintained despite a big deficit was a sign of a fighter that was ready to punch his way back off of the ropes, and the fist-pumping by Pudge Rodriguez after that key triple in the bottom of the 8th inning was just that. Now they are going to come to the ballpark tonight with an entirely different attitude, and there is also a favorable mound matchup for them to get the job done.
We lost a 4* ticket against Scott Baker on the road in his last outing, but it was a case of the offense behind him producing, and not of Baker pitching well. Nick Swisher, Paul Konerko and Joe Crede all hit home runs off of him in the five innings that he worked, and that is going to be the problem for him on the road against good competition - he just does not have the stuff to miss bats, and a savvy group of hitters can get good contact against his offerings. The timing is there for the Tigers to do that tonight, with eight of the nine batting positions producing hits in Monday’s rally, and all nine spots either scoring a run or driving one in.
Nate Robertson brings us a short price here off of his 0-1/7.84 opening to the season, but his stuff has been better than that. His arm showed a lot of life in spring training, and through his first two starts sports a ratio of 11 strikeouts vs. only four walks. Now he steps way down in class here, after having to face the Red Sox in Fenway, one of the toughest matchups in the Major’s for him. Tonight it is a Minnesota lineup that he can control, and he does it by taking the key cogs away - Justin Morneau and Joe Mauer are a combined 10-55 lifetime against him, an anemic .182, and their strikeout count of 10 matches their hit total. If you can keep those two in check this offense is hard-pressed to get production from the other spots, and he had a sparkling 1.93 ERA against the Twins over 28 innings LY, with a terrific count of 19 strikeouts vs. only 16 hits allowed. We will call for more of the same here, putting our eggs in the Robertson/Baker basket in this one. Despite what happened last night there is still a significant bullpen gap between these teams, and we will make our play in the early stages, where the strongest edges come into play.
Wunderdog
Minnesota at Colorado
Pick: Colorado -172
Colorado dominated the first period last night. Minnesota was lucky to get out of that period with just one goal scored on Backstrom. The Avs went into the third period with a 1-0 lead but couldn't hold on to get the “W”. Ultimately the game went into overtime at 2-2. The overtime was simply taken over by the Wild. Theodore played absolutely fantastic but the Avs could not weather the storm and Bouchard put a wrister past Theodore to take game 3. A very tightly-contested battle that gave the Avs a rare home loss. Tonight things should be different. The Avs will come out hungry and should bury some early goals. No doubt about this will again be a tightly-contested game, but we think the Avs' advantage is being at home and coming off a tough loss.
Jeff Alexander Sports
1 Unit on Chicago Cubs -108
With as much as the Reds have struggled against the NL Central, I'll take the Cubs at home today in the small chalk role. First off, the Reds are just 2-5 in the last 7 meetings in this series and 3-10 in their last 13 vs. National League Central. The Reds are 0-6 in their last 6 during game 1 of a series, 6-13 in their last 19 games as a road underdog, and 4-9 in their last 13 games following a loss. The Cubs are 19-7 in their last 26 vs. National League Central, 21-8 in their last 29 home games vs. a team with a losing record, and 4-0 in their last 4 when their opponent allows 5 runs or more in their previous game. Take the Cubbies.
Scott Rickenbach
Washington Capitals @ Philadelphia Flyers
PICK: Philadelphia Flyers
REASON FOR PICK: Free STAR RATED Pick for Tuesday: NHL 1* (regular play) Philadelphia Flyers Money Line (-) vs Washington @ 7:05 ET – A couple of key things have happened so far in this series that have shifted the momentum in favor of the Flyers here. Even though Philly blew Game 1 at Washington as a 4-2 lead turned into a 5-4 loss, all it seemed to do was strengthen the Flyers resolve for Game 2 and they now have stolen the home ice edge and we expect them to retain that here in Game 3. Daniel Briere has come back to life for the Flyers. He struggled when he lost a key linemate, Simon Gagne, but then he seemed revitalized by Philadelphia’s late season pick-up of Vinny Prospal. Briere got two goals and an assist in Game 1 and he’s now a +3 so far in this series. Even though the Flyers lost Game 1 they showed their offense could indeed produce against Washington.
We still feel that the Capitals are a bit overrated in this series and that is offering up solid line value with the Flyers here at home in Game 3. The Capitals are the only team that made the playoffs from the Southeast Division while the Flyers were battling it out all season long with playoff teams like Pittsburgh, New Jersey, and the New York Rangers. However, it’s the Capitals that get all the attention because of Alexander Ovechkin. The Flyers quieted him in a hurry in Game 2 as they shut him down after struggling against him in Game 1. You better believe the Flyers will have another solid game plan in place for Ovechkin and the Caps tonight in Philly. The Philadelphia fans will be going nuts and providing plenty of support for a Flyers team that got a big boost from their goaltender in Game 2.
The Flyers Martin Biron answered a lot of critics in Game 2 when he shutout the Capitals after struggling badly in the third period of Game 1. For Biron to get a shutout in just his second career playoff start, and on the road no less, says a lot about his capabilities between the pipes! He absolutely is capable of another strong performance here as he’s got his confidence back and he was one of the hottest goalies in the league late in the season. Confidence is huge at this time of year and the Flyers have the Capitals on their heels a bit after totally outworking them in Washington on Sunday. The Flyers power play success at home ranks them among the elite in the league while the Capitals power play and penalty killing were poor on the road this past season. Fantastic line value here. Play Philadelphia on the money line as a regular selection.
John Ryan
New York Yankees vs. Tampa Bay Rays
Play:Over
Ai Simulator 3* graded play OVER TB/NYY. Supporting this graded play is a system that has produced a record of 35-12 for 75% since 2002. Play over with road teams where the total is 9 to 9.5 that are off a one run win over a division rival and starting a pitcher who gave up 1 or less earned runs last outing. Jackson is starting for TB and he is coming an impressive start. He is 2-0 with a paltry 0.64 ERA spanning 14 IP on the season. He is also coming off an 8 inning 2 hit shutout of Seattle. Seattle is not the NYY and now that A-Rod has awoke with his 4-5 game last night, it will be very difficult for Jackson to even complete 6 innings of work. AiS shows a 70% probability that 9 or more runs will be scored in this game. NYY starter Pettitte is still not looking like he is in season form. He did manage to work through 6 innings against KC, but TB has a lot of strong young RH bats in their lineup. RH batters hitting Pettitte to the tune of 346 so far this season. Take the OVER
Tom Freese
Game: Memphis Grizzlies at Portland Trail Blazers
Prediction: under
Reason: Portland is 7-0 UNDER their last 7 games off a straight up win and they are 5-0 UNDER vs. a team that scored 100 or more points in their last game. The Trailblazers are 40-18-1 UNDER after scoring 100 or more points in their last game. Memphis is 23-17 UNDER this year and they are 23-16 UNDER their last 39 games vs. Portland including going 3-1 UNDER the last 4 meetings. PLAY ON 'UNDER'
James Patrick Sports
Grizzlies vs. Blazers
Our Tuesday selection in NBA action is on Portland Trailblazers in their regular season home finale against the Grizzlies.
Nelly
Oakland (Eveland) + over Chicago (Danks)
Oakland has won five straight games in this series and rookie starter Dana Eveland has been brilliant in two starts with a 0.68 ERA and 13 strikeouts. The White Sox had no answers for left-hander Greg Smith yesterday and another unfamiliar southpaw will make for a tough challenge today. Oakland is not getting a lot of respect despite a 9-5 record and great early season results, particularly on the road where the A's are 6-1. Chicago's offense has enjoyed a couple of big games but overall the Sox are hitting just .240 in home games and have been very inconsistent. John Danks was rocked in his last start, removed in the third inning after allowing seven runs and Danks struggles with his control, something that the patient Oakland lineup excels at taking advantage of.
Ross Benjamin
Atlanta (Hudson) @ Washington (Chico)
Play On: Under 8.5 (+100)
Tim Hudson dominated the Nationals in 2007 going 4-0 with a 0.60 ERA in 4 team starts. In his career Hudson has posted an incredibly low 1.09 ERA in 8 starts. Hudson has seen his last 4 starts on the road all go under the total. Hudson has been very sharp in his 2 starts this season posting an excellent 0.69 WHIP. In 5 career starts versus Atlanta Matt Chico has posted a very good 2.70 ERA. Chico is 3-7-1 under the total in his last 11 starts as a home underdog. Play on under the total.
Terron Chapman
Pittsburgh Pirates vs. Los Angeles Dodgers
Play:Over
The Pirates look to extend their winning streak to five games as they continue their series with LA Dodgers this evening and in my opinion oddsmakers have been slow to adjust the total for this game leaving us with another strong chance to cash a ticket on the over in this one.
Matt Morris takes the hill for the Pirates coming off a poor performance in which he gave up seven runs, four earned and eleven hits in a 7-3 home loss to the Cubs. Don't expect much of an improvement this evening as Morris has struggled historically with the Dodgers compiling a lifetime record of 4-5 in 13 starts with an era of 5.40. Four dodger regulars have an OPS above .800 against Matt Morris and will look to get their O going this evening.
Opposing Morris for the Dodgers will be southpaw Hong-Chih Kuo who will make his first start in nearly two weeks. In that start Kuo allowed one hit and three walks in three scoreless innings of a 2-1 loss. Kuo has started three games in his career off more than six days rest and in those games has amassed a record of 0-2 with a an era of 9.64. And in five career appearances against the Pirates Kuo is 0-3 with a 6.39 era. Not to mention Kuo has struggled in front of the Dodger faithful as well going 1-4 with a 5.12 era. I don't see Kuo slowing down the hot Pirate offense, nor do I anticipate a dominating performance by Matt Morris. Expect both pitchers to struggle early and often.
The over is 22-4 in the last 26 meetings between these two and 7-1 in the Pirates last 8 vs a left handed starter. The over is also 4-0 the last 4 meetings in LA and should exceed expectations this evening. I suggest a play of 2 units on the over.
TOM STRYKER
Magic at Hawks
Prediction: Hawks
Orlando's 20-point win at Chicago on Sunday night was great for the Magic for two reasons. First, it gave Orlando 50 regular season wins, which was a team goal. And second, it proved to Coach Stan Van Gundy the Magic could still click on all cylinders. After clinching the No. 3 seed in the Eastern Conference, Van Gundy felt his players got a little "soft" and they proved him wrong against the Bulls. Tonight's game at Atlanta is really meaningless for Orlando. Thanks to Philadelphia's loss last night and Toronto's win, the Magic already know they'll be matched up against the Raptors in the first round of the playoffs. It isn't like Orlando enjoys playing in the state of Georgia either. In their last 31 trips to "Hotlanta", the Magic are a dismal 10-21 SU and 11-19 ATS including a stiff 5-12 ATS in this set coming off a straight up win. Thanks to Indiana's loss last night to Washington, Atlanta finds itself the No. 8 seed in the Eastern Conference and will get the "privilege" of playing top-seeded Boston in the first round of the postseason. That won't bother the Hawks. Atlanta hasn't been to the playoffs in nine years and this team will make the most of their experience. The Hawks have dropped their last two at home to the likes of the 76ers and Celtics and they'll want to close their regular season with a victory over the Magic. Technically speaking, at home with rest and off a double-digit straight up loss, Atlanta has cruised to a 47-22 ATS mark provided its opponent checks in off a straight up win. The Hawks are elated to have their season extended and they'll treat their faithful fans to a nice win. Take Atlanta.
Yankee Capper
MLB
3 Units - Atlanta Braves
NBA
2 Units - Charlotte Bobcats +3
NHL
2 Units - San Jose Sharks
JB's Computer Picks
Arizona Diamondbacks - 130
Philadelphia Phillies - 145
New York Mets - 160
San Diego Padres - 125
LAS VEGAS TECH REPORT (LVTR):
LA ANGELS vs TEXAS
Play: TEXAS RANGERS -113
We have been waiting for this one. Angels start Dustin Moseley tonight. He's been awful to say the least. After two games he is standing on a 7.36 ERA. Texas already beat him and the Angles 11-6 this season. Mosley's other start found him on the losing side again 9-5 to Cleveland. Kevin Millwood has been on fire in his first two starts only giving up 3 runs in 21 innings. He has a 3.38 career ERA VS LAA. Angels bullpen is starting to show signs of inconsistency. Take Texas today to hand out a little payback to the Angels.
MILWAUKEE vs ST. LOUIS
Play: ST. LOUIS CARDINALS -122
Another selection where we are going against a pitcher off to a horrible start and putting our money on a pitcher who has come out firing. Dave Bush may get sent to the minor leagues before you are done reading this. That's not true, but that is how bad it has become for him. If Gallardo wasn't hurt, that might have been reality for Bush who has already lost 12-4 to the Reds and 6-3 to the Cubs. He has a 8.44 ERA and jumps to 10.13 on the road. Looper has been fire for St. Louis starting off the season with a 3.00 ERA. (1.5 ERA at home). The next problem for Milwaukee is the fact that Bush keeps getting pulled early averaging 5.33 innings creating havoc on the bullpen. Take STL who should be comfortable playing at home tonight in a big win