SPORTS ADVISORS
NBA PLAYOFFS
WESTERN CONFERENCE
(7) Dallas (51-32, 35-44-4 ATS) at (2) New Orleans (57-26, 51-30-2 ATS)
The Hornets will look to build on their Game 1 victory in this first-round best-of-7 series when they once again host the Mavericks at New Orleans Arena.
In Saturday’s opener, New Orleans trailed 52-40 at halftime, then stormed back to outscore Dallas by 24 points in the second half to win 104-92 and easily cover as a 4½-point home chalk. That continued the Hornets’ trend of avoiding back-to-back ATS losses – a streak that dates to Feb. 25 – although it also continued a recent streak of alternating pointspread wins and losses in their last five starts.
With New Orleans’ win Saturday, the home team has gone 5-0 SU and ATS this season in this series, and the favorite is 5-1 ATS in the last six clashes, including a current 4-0 ATS streak.
Dallas, which had won and covered against New Orleans at home in the regular-season finale, dropped to 1-5 ATS in its last six starts and is on additional negative pointspread runs of 9-23 on the highway against teams with a winning home record, 1-4 on two days’ rest, 2-8 following a non-cover and 0-5 in first-round playoff games. On the positive side, the Mavericks are on pointspread streaks of 6-1 as a playoff underdog of less than five points, 14-3 as a playoff pup of any price and 37-16-1 against Southwest Division rivals.
The Hornets, who sported the league’s third-best ATS mark in the regular season, are on a 23-8 ATS spree at home and carry additional positive pointspread runs of 39-19-1 overall, 13-3-1 laying points, 10-2 as a home chalk, 5-0-1 as a favorite of less than five points and 38-18-1 on two days’ rest. All that said, they are 1-5-1 ATS in their last seven after a spread-cover and 2-5-1 ATS in their last seven after scoring more than 100 points.
With Saturday’s contest barely clearing the 192-point posted total, the over is now on runs of 10-1 when the Mavericks are on the road, 6-1 with the Mavs a playoff ‘dog, 5-1 for the Hornets in the playoffs, 16-6-2 with New Orleans as a home chalk and 25-8 with the Hornets playing on two days’ rest. On the flip side, the under is 4-0 for Dallas in its last four after a SU loss, 5-2 in the Mavs’ last seven overall, 4-0 for New Orleans after a SU win and 8-3 for the Hornets against the Western Conference.
Finally, even though the under is 11-4-1 in the last 16 clashes in this series, the over has cashed in all three meetings at New Orleans this year.
ATS ADVANTAGE: OVER
(6) Phoenix (55-28, 40-40-3 ATS) at (3) San Antonio (57-26, 37-44-2)
The Spurs and Suns have a tough act to follow after their Game 1 double-overtime thriller, with San Antonio looking to take a commanding 2-0 series lead with another victory at the AT&T Center.
Phoenix blew several opportunities to win Game 1 in regulation and in the first overtime period, and San Antonio – thanks in part to an improbable Tim Duncan 3-pointer to cap the first OT session – took advantage of the multiple chances and pulled out a 117-115 victory. However, the Suns cashed as a 4½-point underdog, giving the Spurs a 2-6 ATS mark in their last eight outings (5-3 SU).
San Antonio took out Phoenix in last year’s conference semis, winning the series 4-2 (3-2-1 ATS). But Phoenix is 4-1 ATS this season in the heated rivalry between these two, with the underdog taking the cash in all five meetings. Furthermore, the Suns have covered in all three meetings this season in San Antonio (2-1 SU), and they’re 4-1 ATS in their last five trips to the AT&T Center – all as an underdog.
Furthermore, the Suns are on pointspread streaks of 12-4-1 against the Western Conference, 6-0 on two days’ rest, 4-0 after a SU loss, 6-2 against the Southwest Division and 7-3 in first-round playoff games. Also, even though Phoenix is 2-5 ATS in its last seven as a road underdog, both of those spread-covers came at San Antonio (Saturday’s loss and a 96-79 win on April 9). Finally, the Suns are 1-6 ATS in their last seven starts after a spread-cover.
The Spurs are on ATS slides of 4-10 as a home chalk of less than five points, 4-10 after a pointspread setback, 0-4 against the Pacific Division, 1-7 on two days’ rest and 1-4 after a SU win. On the positive side, San Antonio is 13-4-1 ATS in its last 18 as a playoff favorite, 4-1 ATS in its last five first-round games and 4-0-1 in its last five on Tuesday.
Saturday’s clash was headed toward an “under” before going to double OT and ended up easily soaring over the 192½-point posted price. The over is now on a 7-1 tear with the Suns as a road ‘dog, 7-2 in their last nine conference quarterfinal contests and 4-0 with Phoenix as a road pup of less than five points.
For San Antonio, the over is on runs of 4-0 overall and is 5-1 against the Pacific Division, but the under is still 21-9 with the Spurs favored by less than five points and 20-9-1 in San Antonio’s last 30 conference quarterfinal games. Finally, before Saturday’s double-OT affair, the under had cashed in all four regular-season meetings between these squads.
ATS ADVANTAGE: PHOENIX
EASTERN CONFERENCE
(6) Toronto (41-42, 39-43-1 ATS) at (3) Orlando (53-30, 51-29-3 ATS)
The Magic, who are looking to get beyond the first round of the Eastern Conference playoffs for the first time in 12 years, won their first playoff game since 2003 by taking Game 1 and now will aim to take a 2-0 series lead back to Canada when they host the Raptors at Amway Arena.
Orlando rolled to a 114-100 victory Saturday in the series opener, putting up 43 first-quarter points and covering the 6½-point spread with ease. Stan Van Gundy’s squad picked up where it left off in the regular season by posting its fourth consecutive SU and ATS win, and the Magic are 7-3 SU and 7-2-1 ATS in their last 10 starts. Conversely, Toronto is mired in a 2-7 ATS funk dating to the regular season, including four consecutive non-covers in the last four.
The Magic have won and covered the last two meetings in this series – both in Orlando and both by double digits – and are now 3-1 SU and ATS in the last four clashes following a 5-1 SU and 6-0 ATS run by Toronto. In fact, despite the Game 1 setback, the Raptors are still 7-4 SU and 8-3 ATS against the Magic since 2005, including 4-2 ATS in Orlando.
The Raptors are 1-10 ATS in their last five on the highway, including five straight losses and non-covers in the last five on American soil. They’re in additional ATS funks of 7-20 overall, 8-21 catching points, 2-7 against the East, 5-16 on one day’s rest and 0-9 as a road pup. The lone positive note is Toronto’s 36-16-2 ATS mark in its last 54 games against the Southeast Division.
Conversely, the Magic are on a plethora of positive ATS runs, including 38-18-3 against the Eastern Conference, 12-4-2 at home, 4-0 as a chalk of any price, 13-3 as a favorite of five to 10½ points and 10-3 on one days’ rest.
Although Game 1 cleared the posted total of 196, both teams have been involved in low-scoring affairs lately, with the under 6-1-1 in Toronto’s last eight overall and 7-2 in the Raptors’ last nine on the highway. The under is also 8-2 in the Magic’s last 10 overall, 6-2 in their last eight as a favorite, 7-2 in their last nine against the Eastern Conference and 14-4 in their last 18 following an ATS win. In this series, however, the over is on a 4-1 run, and the over is 6-1 in the Magic’s last seven first-round games and 4-1 in the Raptors’ last five first-round outings.
ATS ADVANTAGE: ORLANDO
NATIONAL LEAGUE
Philadelphia (10-10) at Colorado (9-10)
After exacting a bit of revenge against the Rockies last night, the Phillies will now attempt to sweep this brief two-game series when they send Brett Myers (2-1, 3.96 ERA) to the mound opposite Colorado ace Jeff Francis (0-2, 5.89 ERA).
Philadelphia, which got swept by the Rockies in a best-of-5 National League Division Series last October, scored five runs in the final two innings Monday night to steal a 9-5 victory. It was the Phillies’ second straight win after holding off the Mets 5-4 Sunday night, but Charlie Manuel’s team has yet to win (or lose) more than two straight games all season. On the bright side, Philadelphia is 19-3 in Myers’ last 22 starts against the N.L. West.
Colorado, which had a four-game winning streak snapped Sunday in Houston, fell to 3-4 at Coors Field this season with Monday’s defeat. The loss also snapped the Rockies’ seven-game winning streak against the N.L. West. However, Clint Hurdle’s club is on runs of 7-1 on Tuesdays and 13-3 when Francis pitches against the N.L. East.
The Rockies are still 9-5 in their last 14 meetings with Philadelphia (3-2 at home). Ten of the last 13 clashes have been decided by more than one run.
Myers, who returned to the starting rotation after spending most of 2007 in the Phillies’ bullpen, is coming off a pair of home victories over the Cubs (5-3) and Astros (10-2). In those two contests, the right-hander gave up a total of four runs on 10 hits in 15 innings, walking just one and striking out 13. Myers’ one problem has been a propensity to give up the long ball, as he’s surrendered six home runs in his last 20 innings.
Prior to Myers’ last two starts, the Phillies had lost eight straight games that Myers started, and they’re 0-4 in his last four road outings. On the bright side, Myers has owned the Rockies in his career, going 6-0 with a 2.29 ERA in six career games (five starts). He’s also a perfect 4-0 with a 2.63 ERA at Coors Field.
Francis was a disaster in his first two starts – both against Arizona – giving up 12 runs and 19 hits in 11 1/3 innings. But in Thursday’s marathon 22-inning game at San Diego, the southpaw was terrific, scattering three hits and a walk over seven scoreless innings while striking out seven.
Francis got destroyed in two regular-season starts against the Phillies last year (one home, one road), giving up a total of 14 runs (all earned) on 20 hits and five walks in just 8 1/3 innings. However, in Game 1 of the NLDS in Philadelphia, Francis dominated, allowing two runs on four hits in six innings of a 4-2 win. Finally, Colorado is 3-1 in his four career outings versus the Phillies.
The over is 5-1 in Myers’ last six starts overall (2-0 on the road), 3-1 in Francis’ last four starts going back to last season’s World Series and 9-1 in Francis’ last 10 starts versus the N.L. East. However, the under is 12-5-2 in Myers’ last 19 against the N.L. West.
The over is 12-6 in the last 18 series meetings between these teams dating to the start of 2006, with Monday’s contest easily flying over the total. Also, the over is 8-3 in Colorado’s last 11 overall. However, the under is still 7-4 in the Phillies’ last 11 overall and 7-4 in their last 11 on the highway.
ATS ADVANTAGE: OVER
AMERICAN LEAGUE
L.A. Angels (12-8) at Boston (14-7)
The Angels return to Fenway Park for the first time since getting eliminated in last year’s American League Division Series, as they’ll send Jered Weaver (1-3, 3.60) to the hill opposite Red Sox ace Josh Beckett (2-1, 5.12).
Los Angeles had Monday off after having a three-game winning streak snapped in Sunday’s 4-2 home loss to Seattle. Despite that setback, the Angels enter this three-game series on a 6-2 run. Also, they’re 6-3 in their nine road games this season.
Boston is riding a five-game winning streak after capping a four-game sweep of Texas with Monday afternoon’s 8-3 Patriots Day victory. The Red Sox are 9-1 in their last 10, including 6-0 at home, and they’ve averaged more than eight runs per game in their last eight contests. Finally, Boston is on further runs of 20-7 overall, 41-19 at home, 16-5 against the A.L. West and 27-10 when Beckett starts (4-0 in his last four starts at home).
The Red Sox swept the Angels in a best-of-5 playoff series last October en route to their second world championship in the last four years. Boston outscored Los Angeles 19-4 in the series and is on an 11-4 roll in this rivalry. What’s more, Fenway Park has been a house of horrors for the Halos in recent years, as they’re 6-20 in their last 26 in Beantown (2-7 in the last nine).
Weaver yielded three runs (two earned) on 10 hits over six innings in Wednesday’s home start against the Royals, but it wasn’t good enough as he got saddled with a 3-2 loss. Los Angeles is 1-5 in the right-hander’s last six trips to the mound (0-3 on the road). Also, in his two road starts this season, Weaver is 0-2 with a 6.00 ERA.
Weaver started against Boston in Game 3 of last year’s ALDS, giving up two runs on four hits and three walks in five innings of a 9-1 loss. Los Angeles is 1-4 in Weaver’s five career starts against the BoSox, with the young hurler posting a 4.50 ERA.
After getting roughed up in his season-opening start at Toronto on April 6, Beckett has bounced back with a pair of quality efforts, both against the Yankees. He gave up three runs in each start covering a total of 14 2/3 innings, winning 4-3 at home and 7-5 on the road.
Beckett has owned the Angels since coming to Boston in 2006, allowing a total of six earned runs in five starts spanning 28 innings (1.93 ERA). The Red Sox have won four of the five starts, including a 4-0 home victory in Game 1 of the ALDS last year, with Beckett pitching a complete-game four-hitter, walking none and striking out eight.
The over is 6-2-1 in the past nine series meetings overall, 7-3-2 in the last 12 head-to-head clashes at Fenway and 7-2 in Boston’s last nine overall. However, the Angels are on a current 4-0-1 “under” streak.
ATS ADVANTAGE: BOSTON
VEGAS EXPERTS TIP OF THE DAY
San Diego Padres at Houston Astros
In 30 innings pitched, Jake Peavy has allowed exactly four runs this year. In his last 21 innings pitched against the Astros, he's allowed exactly two runs. In the last 16 meetings between the teams, we've seen the Under cash on 13 occasions. Don't expect much from the respective offenses as San Diego is averaging just 2.9 runs/game vs. righties, while Houston is at 3.8. Astros starter Brandon Backe is 25-11 Under in night games and will put up a good fight.
Play on: Under
Jimmy The Moose
Game: Los Angeles Dodgers at Cincinnati Reds
Prediction: under
Reason: The Dodgers have played the under in 3 of their last 4 games. The under is 5-1 in their last 6 games vs. a team with a losing record. The under is 4-1 in their last 5 road games. Kuo is on the mound tonight and he brings a solid 0.79 ERA to the game. The Reds counter with Volquez and his 1.17 ERA. The Reds have also played the under in 3 of their last 4 games. The under is 6-1 in their last 7 games as a favorite. The under is 5-1 in their last 6 home games vs. a left-handed starter. The under is 5-1 in LA's last 6 trips to Cincinnati. Play the under.
Marc Lawrence
Game: Florida Marlins at Pittsburgh Pirates
Prediction: Florida Marlins
Note: Surprising Marlins send recently recalled Ricky Nolasco to the mound against Pittsburgh's Paul Maholm in Game Two of this series knowing Maholm has struggled during the month of April, going 4-9 in his career team starts. With Florida hitting the cover off the ball, look for Nolasco to improve to 4-0 in his career team starts on Tuesdays here tonight
Bob Akmens
Minnesota Twins @ Oakland Athletics Under 8.0
This play is the result of a successful computer model that has allowed Bob Akmens Sports to finish in first-place in 162 different categories of documented monitored handicapping contests since 1978.
The computer models I’ve developed for each sport look at the most-predictive variables that go into the winning and losing of games.
Several interesting factors in today’s play are as follows (ATS = against-the-spread) –
The MINNESOTA TWINS go UNDER when:Livan Hernandez starts on the road: 8-2 UNDER last 10
The OAKLAND A’s go UNDER when:Joe Blanton starts at home: 8-2 UNDER last 10
Go with UNDER 8 RUNS
Vernon Croy
LAA Angels vs. Boston Red Sox
Play: Boston Red Sox
1 Unit, Take Boston ML, Boston is the better overall team at this point in the season and they are 7-2 at home. Beckett has pitched solid in his last 2 starts and he pitched solid in his only home start of the season which was against the Yankees allowing just 5 hits and 1 walk over 6.7 innings. Beckett has owned the Angels in the past with a 3-0 record and an ERA of just 1.59 while Weaver is 0-3 against Boston with an ERA of 4.50. Jaredn Weaver has had trouble with his control on the road so far this season walking 6 batters over just 12 innings and Boston has an OBP (on base percentage) of .394 at home this season.
Take Boston
VEGAS SPORTS PICS
NBA
New Orleans Hornets - 3.5 over Dallas Mavericks
New Orleans at home is 3-0 (SU & ATS) over Dallas this season off beating the Mavs 104-92 in game one of this series despite getting outscored by 15 points at the free throw line.
San Antonio Spurs - 2 over Phoenix Suns
Defending NBA Champ San Antonio is 13-4 ATS last 17 playoff games when favored off beating Phoenix 117-115 in double OT in game one of this series, failing to cover the minus four though.
MLB
Chicago Cubs (Lilly) - 110* over NY Mets (Figueroa)
Cubs are 7-1 last eight games averaging 8.1 runs. Lilly looking to recover from a weak 2008 start went 1-0 versus the Mets last season, winning 6-2, allowing 2 runs over 7 innings.
Atlanta (Smoltz) - 1.5 (+105**) over Washington (Lannan)
Home standing Atlanta enters on a five game win streak, by a combined 31-6.
Arizona (Webb) - 1.5 (-105**) over San Francisco (Zito)
NL West leading Arizona is 13-6 last 19 meetings. 2006 NL Cy Young winner Webb is 4-0 allowing seven runs over 29 innings including a 4-1 win at San Francisco last week.
Matt Fargo
San Diego Padres @ Houston Astros
PICK: Houston Astros
REASON FOR PICK: Houston took the opener last night, scoring five runs in the first inning and never looking back. The Astros have won a modest two straight games and things are starting to turn around after a horribly slow start. They are 5-4 over their last nine games after beginning the season 3-8 so things are definitely on an upswing. The offense was supposed to be one of the most improved in baseball but started out scoring four runs or less in seven of their first 10 games. They have now scored five runs or more in six of their last 11 games.
While it is pointing up for Houston, it is going the opposite way for the Padres. The loss last night was the fifth in the last six games for San Diego as the offense remains one of the worst in baseball. San Diego is hitting only .239 on the season, 4th worst in the league and that drops to .199 over its last 10 games. The Padres have scored the 2nd fewest runs in the league and they have put up three runs or less in nine of their last 12 games. San Diego also has a putrid 5.17 team ERA on the road.
It is hard to go up against a Cy Young winner but that is what it calls for here. Jake Peavy is once again pitching lights out but and that includes a shutout performance against the Astros already this season. That came at home however where Peavy has allowed only one run in three starts. In his lone road start, he allowed three runs on nine hits in six innings against the Dodgers. San Diego was 23-11 in his 34 starts last season which is certainly good bit it shows that winning all the time is hardly automatic.
The Astros are confident in the pitching matchup and so am I as Brandon Backe has made pitching in Minute Maid Park a huge strength. There are pitchers all over the league who are better at home than on the road and Backe is at the top of the list. He did not allow a run in his lone home start this season and his ERA at home in his career sits at a stellar 3.59 compared to 5.54 on the road. He is 15-5 at Minute Maid and while allowing a .290 BAA in 29 road starts, he allows opponents to hit just .245 in 22 home outings. Play Houston Astros 1.5 Units
James Patrick
Dodgers vs. Reds
A pair of old rivalries get together in the Queen City at 7:10 p.m. est. and we expect these offenses to break out as these teams are at the back end of their respective rotations. Get ready for a Slugfest in Cincinnati as Dodgers –Reds flies OVER the TOTAL as our Major League Baseball winner on Tuesday.
BRAD DIAMOND SPORTS
Play on: Colorado over Philadelphia
After pitching well in his last outing (versus Houston) Brett Myers and the Phillies visit Coors field and Colorado. With Myers on the hill, the Phillies have won 4 straight versus the Rockies on the road. As a handicapper, that trend is difficult to over look when you consider the Phillies are in playoff revenge after being swept (3-0) by the Rockies last October. However, the Phillies are 2-7 in the L9 road starts by Brett Myers and 0-4 in his last 4 road outings overall. In addition, Colorado is 23-9 with lefty Francis at home (4-0 against a losing team) and 7-1 on Tuesday. Finally, the Phillies lineup will be minus Rollins and Victorino who are both on the disabled list.
Big Al Mcmordie
Game: New York Yankees at Chicago White Sox
Prediction: New York Yankees
Reason: At 8:10pm our member selection is on the New York Yankees over the Chicago White Sox. The Yankees, their management, and their fans got a bit of a scare on Sunday when their All Star third baseman Alex Rodriguez had to leave the game against Baltimore after running out a fielders choice. It turns out that he has a slightly injured quadriceps and the good news for the Bronx Bombers is that it does not look like the team will place A-Rod on the DL. After being examined in New York on Monday, the almost-certain hall-of-famer will join the team for this series in Chicago. It's not known whether Rodriguez will play tonight (he's listed as doubtful to start), but he could make an appearance as a pinch hitter at some time even if Morgan Ensburg continues to start in his place. WIth righthanded ace Chien-Ming Wang scheduled to take the mound, it probably won't matter that much. The Yanks have won all four of Wang's starts this season. Even when Wang doesn't pitch particularly well, as in his last outing, his team still finds a way to make up for it with run production. Wang's only start on the road this year was his best, a complete game at Fenway Park against the Red Sox in which he gave up only one earned run. Perhaps the best news for the Yanks so far is that 39 year-old closer Mariano Rivera, a bit of a question mark going into the regular season, has five saves and has yet to give up a run. Look for the Yanks to make a run in the first half as they want to put on a solid showing prior to hosting the All Star game in July, the last time Yankee Stadium will do the honors. Take New York.
Ross Benjamin
Mets (Figueroa) @ Cubs (Lilly)
Pick: Mets -105
The Mets starting pitcher Figueroa has had 2 excellent starts in 2008 posting a brilliant 0.69 WHIP and a very good 2.77 ERA. Ted Lilly has struggled in all 4 starts this season and is 0-5 in his last 5 team starts as a favorite. The Mets are 8-1 this season versus a left-handed starting pitcher including 6-0 in their last 6. New York is hitting a solid .296 as a team versus left-handed pitching this season including .320 on the road. Play on the New York Mets as my selection of the day.
Jimmy Moore
Game:Calgary @ San Jose - game 7
Pick:UNDER 5 -140
Reason:Game 7's in the NHL are usually played fairly cautiously and with these 2 teams that will be even double. 2 goals may win this game with both defenses playing well and nobody wanting to make a series losing mistake.
Brandon Lang
20 Dime - A's
10 Dime - Hornets
Free Pick - D'Backs Run Line and Magic
Sports Gambling Hotline
It's hard to pick the spot the Nationals are going to win again, but we feel certain it won't be tonight.
Washington has lost their last 3 games, and 14 of their last 16, and they are just 2-8 their last 10 games played at Atlanta.
We will back the Braves on the RUN LINE tonight, as it is hard to imagine Washington getting much going against John Smoltz. Smoltz already owns a 6 inning, 1 run win over the Nationals back on the 12th, and for the season Smoltzie has allowed 1 earned run over his 16 innings logged for an ERA of 0.56!
Smoltz has also been tough on Washington over his last 5 starts, allowing a grand total of 6 earned runs in 31 frames of work.
John Lannan was hit hard by Atlanta back on the 12th when he started against Smoltz. as the Braves plated 6 runs in just 4 innings of work.
This one has romp written all over it.
RUN LINE play on Atlanta.
5* ATLANTA -1 1/2-RUNS