Insider Sports Report
4* Dallas/New Orleans (NBA) OVER 193
Range 191.5 to 195
4* L.A. Dodgers (Lowe) -130 over Florida (Miller)
Range -115 to -150
3* Chicago White Sox (Floyd) -110 over Minnesota (Bonser)
Range +110 to -130
Lee Kostroski
Chicago White Sox @ Minnesota Twins
PICK: Under
In three of his four starts this season Gavin Floyd has allowed three runs or fewer in six innings or greater. He was tagged for five runs against the Yankees in his last start but overall he has had brilliant results so far this season with a 2.84 ERA and only 14 hits allowed in over 25 innings pitched. The ‘under’ has won in eight of his last ten starts and he is poised for another strong outing against a Twins offense that has had limited success this season.
The Twins are 1-4 in Boof Bonser’s five starts this season but that is not a fair reflection of how he has pitched. Bonser had quality starts in four of those five outings but his teammates have generated a grand total of seven runs in the five games that he has pitched. Even though Bonser has not posted amazing numbers the ‘under’ is 16-5-1 dating back to the middle of last season in his starts. Both teams are also supported by experienced deep bullpens that have posted solid numbers so far this season.
Chicago’s offense has decent numbers overall this season but in recent games the numbers have slipped, hitting just .240 in the last ten games. The Twins are averaging just 3.2 runs per game in the last ten games despite posting 12 runs in a single game over the weekend in Texas. Neither pitcher will get great respect from the oddsmakers, but both are throwing well right now and should be able to put together good outings in this match-up.
Wunderdog
Cincinnati at St. Louis
Pick: Cincinnati -110
The Reds have won three straight, looking to a rookie to make it four in a row. We think Johnny Cueto can do it. He's got a 4.05 ERA and is facing a struggling St. Louis offense (4.1 runs per game at home). He's opposed by Joel Pineiro (5.29 ERA) and we like the Reds' offense here, anchored by hot Edwin Encarnacion (batting .298 with 6 HR and 14 RBI). The Cards are off a 3-4 loss and they are just 19-31 the past three seasons off a one-run loss. We like the hotter Reds here.
Ben Burns
Dallas Mavericks +6.5 / 5 units
Los Angeles Angels -133 / 5 units
Jeffersonsports
NBA
Phoenix Under 198
New Orleans-6
JeffMoney
NHL Det -110 (pod)
NBA Hornets -6
MONEY LOCK OF THE DAY
JUNIOR'S PICK
Today we are going to ride the best arm in baseball, Johan Santana! Johan was booed off the mound in his home debut and don't think for one minute that he will let this happen again. Santana has been absolutely lights out this year! He is 3-2 with a 3.03 ERA and an outstanding 33 stikeouts to only 5 walks! He has had to take the loss in a couple games in which the Mets just couldn't hit the ball! The Mets have turned that around 5 runs in their last 5 games! Delgado and Beltran are starting to come around and that will be too much for the young arm of Ian Snell. Snell is a good young pitcher but he isn't going to shut any team out and especially on the road! I look for Snell to give up 4-5 runs tonight which will be plenty for Johan and the Mets! Join me and take Johan (on an extra days rest) for 5 units tonight to get ahead for the month!
Take the Mets -180
DIGGER'S PICK
WHITE SOX +105 OVER TWINS
HAWKER'S PICK
TAMPA BAY / BALTIMORE UNDER 9.5 RUNS
Yankee Capper
3 Units - Toronto Blue Jays
3 Units - Pens/Rangers Over 5
2 Units - Phoenix Suns +5
STEVEN NOVER
Toronto Blue Jays @ Boston Red Sox
PICK: Toronto Blue Jays
REASON FOR PICK: Neither the Blue Jays nor the Red Sox are playing well right now. But at a pick'em type price, I have to make a minor investment in Toronto with Roy Halladay on the hill versus southpaw Jon Lester.
Halladay is an ace. Lester has a 5.40 ERA and has yet to fully prove himself. Lester has allowed 37 hits this season and 19 walks in 31 2/3 innings. The Red Sox are averaging 2.8 runs in their last five games, all losses.
The Blue Jays were 26-17 against left-handers last season, although just 1-4 so far this season. The return of Scott Rolen is a plus against lefties.
Toronto swept Boston during its three-game series earlier this month. The Blue Jays weren't intimidated by Boston's bullpen, racking Red Sox relievers for 10 earned runs on 11 hits in 8 1/3 innings.
MATT FARGO
Milwaukee Brewers @ Chicago Cubs
PICK: Chicago Cubs
REASON FOR PICK: This is a great price for the Cubs at home where they are 10-4 on the season. This number is based on nothing more than the name of Ben Sheets and I will go into that later. Chicago has dumped three of its last four games but those came on the road and the lead in the National League Central has dwindled to just a game making this series a pretty big one. The Brewers won the first series in 2008 to open the season and even though it is early, these games can go a long way.
Milwaukee hits the road following a disappointing 3-4 homestand and it also comes into this game with a 1-3 record over its last four games. The Brewers have been above average on the road with a 7-5 record but it is pretty soft considering both hitting and pitching are not flourishing away from home. Milwaukee is hitting just .220 on the road this season and while the bullpen has been decent, the starters have put up a 4.57 ERA in road contests.
Back to Sheets. He is definitely a big time pitcher and one that often deserves being a road chalk but not in this case. He is becoming one of the most brittle pitchers in baseball and the injury bug has hit him already this season. He missed his last start after leaving early in his previous outing due to tightness in his right triceps. He leads the league in WHIP and is allowing only a .146 BAA but coming off an injury, you don’t know what to expect. In 23 starts against the Cubs, Sheets is just 9-7.
Jason Marquis takes the hill for the Cubs and he is putting together another fine season. He tossed his third straight quality outing in his last start in Colorado and it was the bullpen that blew a chance for the Cubs to remain undefeated in his four starts. Each start has been better than the previous and his ERA has dipped after every outing on the season. He posted a 1.46 ERA in two starts against Milwaukee last season with Chicago going 2-0 in those games. Play Chicago Cubs 1.5 Units
Black Widow Sports
1* on Mavs/Hornets OVER 193
Shooting was not pretty in Game 4 between these teams. We really expect things to sharpen up offensively with this being an elimination game. You won’t see these teams going 1-on-1 as much as you did in Game 4. Team basketball wins these big games, which leads to easy buckets for both squads. Dallas is 11-2 OVER in road games when playing against a good team (Win Pct. 60% to 70%) this season. Dallas is 10-1 OVER in road games when playing against a good team (Win Pct. 60% to 70%) - 2nd half of the season this season. As you can see, when the Mavs hit the road they tend to play less defense but their offense has really been clicking. The OVER is 4-0 in the last 4 meetings between these squads at New Orleans, including a 127-103 Hornets’ victory in Game 2. Take the OVER 193 points.
Locksmith Sports
1 Unit on Atlanta Braves -105
(listing Glavine and Redding)
An off day is normally the magic recipe for the Braves to come up with a win. Following back-to-back losses to the Mets, I like the Braves to bounce back here as the Braves are 21-6 in their last 27 games following an off day. The Nationals are a pathetic 4-13 in their last 17 vs. the National League East, 1-7 in their last 8 games following an off day, and just 6-17 in their last 23 overall. The Braves are an impressive 7-3 in Glavine's last 10 starts vs. the Nationals. All Braves in this one.
Info Plays
3* on Royals/Rangers OVER 10.5
(Listing Tomko and Jennings)
Brett Tomko is 0-3 with a 6.88 ERA in his last 3 starts for the Royals while Jason Jennings is 0-2 with a 9.64 ERA in 2 home starts this season for the Rangers. With these two awful starters on the mound, all value in this game goes on the OVER 10.5 runs. Jennings is 15-3 OVER (+11.7 Units) in home games vs. teams averaging 2.75 or less extra base hits per game since 1997. Tomko is 18-6 OVER (+11.7 Units) vs. AL teams scoring 4.7 or less runs/game on the season since 1997. Texas is 8-1 OVER (+7.5 Units) after having lost 6 or 7 of their last 8 games this season. The Rangers are terrible this year, but one consistent aspect of this team is their ability to put a ton of runs on the board and their starting staff to give up a boat load of runs as well. Bet the OVER 10.5 runs.
Fairway Jay
3* Action - Blue Jays (Halladay) -110
4* Best - Rockets/Jazz Under
LARRY NESS
Toronto Blue Jays @ Boston Red Sox
PICK: Over
REASON FOR PICK: Things change quickly in MLB, even for the defending champs. The Red Sox won 10 of 11 games from April 12 through April 22, batting nearly .340 as a team, while averaging 6.9 RPG. However, they enter this game with Toronto in Fenway (first of a three-game series), on a five-game losing streak (longest active one in MLB!), hitting just .222 as a team, while scoring only 14 runs (2.8 per). Jon Lester (1-2, 5.40 ERA) will start on Tuesday for Boston, as Matsuzaka is still recovering from flu-like symptoms. Lester has not allowed more than four ERs in any one of his six starts in '08 but he's allowed exactly four ERs in FOUR of them (37 hits in 31.2 innings on the year). Some good news for Boston is that David Ortiz, who missed the last two games due to a bruised right knee, is expected to return Tuesday. Also, Mike Lowell is scheduled to come off the DL, after being out since April 10 with a sprained left thumb. Facing the Red Sox will be Roy Halladay, who may have pitched back-to-back CG games in his last two starts, but has also allowed 20 hits and nine ERs in those two games. He has not been at all dominating so far in '08 (2-3 with a 3.73 ERA in five starts) plus has just a 10-9 record with a 4.45 ERA in 30 career starts versus Boston (Jays are 13-17). I'm looking for runs in this one. Take Tor/Bos over.