SPORTS ADVISORS
NATIONAL LEAGUE
Atlanta (19-18) at Philadelphia (21-18)
The Braves and Phillies hook up for the first time this season, with a pair of young pitchers set to take the mound as Philadelphia’s Kyle Kendrick (2-2, 4.93 ERA) opposes Jo-Jo Reyes (1-0, 2.25).
The Phillies return home from a seven-game road trip that saw them go 3-4, concluding the journey with losses at San Francisco on Saturday (8-2) and Sunday (4-3). Charlie Manuel’s club has been lacking consistency the last few weeks, splitting its last 14 games, but it is 5-2 in its last seven home contests, 16-5 in its last 21 on Tuesdays and 5-1 in its last six as a favorite.
Atlanta arrives in Philadelphia after splitting Monday’s double-header at Pittsburgh, losing the first game 5-0 and taking the nightcap 8-1. The Braves are on a 7-2 run overall, but they’re still just 5-13 on the road this season. Also, they’re on further negative runs of 0-5 as a road underdog, 0-4 against the N.L. East, 1-4 on Tuesdays and 1-4 in Reyes’ last five road starts.
These rivals split their 18-game season series last year, though the Phillies did win nine of the last 14.
Reyes lasted just 2 2/3 innings on Thursday against San Diego, giving up two runs (one earned) on five hits, failing to get a decision in a 5-4 Braves win. Atlanta is 5-0 in Reyes’ last five starts going back to last September, but only one of those wins came on the road.
In his young career, Reyes is 1-1 with an 8.46 ERA on the road in five starts, compared with 2-1 and a 3.96 ERA in seven home contests. Also, tonight marks the southpaw’s first career start against Philadelphia.
With Kendrick on the mound, the Phillies are on streaks of 4-0 overall, 4-0 on Tuesdays, 14-5 as a favorite and 10-4 at home. In his most recent effort on Wednesday, Kendrick gave up 10 hits and three runs in six innings in Arizona, but the Phillies rallied for a 5-4 win to get Kendrick off the hook. The right-hander is 0-1 with a 3.46 ERA in two home starts.
Kendrick faced the Braves twice last year, giving up a combined five runs and 12 hits in 11 innings, with Philadelphia winning 6-4 at home and losing 9-8 on the road.
The over is 12-3 in Kendrick’s last 15 starts overall, 6-1 in his last seven at home and 2-0 in his two career games against Atlanta. However, the under is 4-1-1 in Reyes’ last six overall.
For Atlanta, the under is on streaks of 36-16-2 overall, 18-5-1 on the road, 16-5 as an underdog, 17-4-1 on the road against right-handed starters and 5-0 on Tuesdays. Conversely, the over is 5-2-1 in Philly’s last eight overall, 7-3 in its last 10 as a favorite and 8-0 in its last eight series-openers.
ATS ADVANTAGE: PHILADELPHIA
AMERICAN LEAGUE
N.Y. Yankees (19-20) at Tampa Bay (22-16)
The red-hot and record-setting Rays look put their five-game overall and franchise-record 10-game winning streaks on the line tonight when they hand the ball to Edwin Jackson (2-3, 4.04), while New York is set to go with ace Chien-Ming Wang (6-1, 3.12).
Tampa Bay pounded out a 7-1 victory in Monday’s series opener and has now won 14 of its last 19 to climb six games over .500 for the first time in team history. The Rays have outscored their opponents 27-8 during their five-game winning streak, and they’re now 14-7 at home. Additionally, Tampa is 5-0 in its last five as an underdog, but only 12-27 in Jackson’s last 39 starts overall and 7-15 in his last 22 starts as an underdog.
The Yanks have followed a three-game winning steak by going 2-4 in their last six to fall back below .500. On the bright side, they’re 20-6 in Wang’s last 26 road starts and 41-15 in Wang’s last 56 outings overall.
New York had won four straight against the Rays – all in Tampa – before last night’s defeat. The Yankees still lead the season series 4-3, going 4-1 at Tropicana Field.
Wang suffered his first defeat of the season in Wednesday’s 3-0 home loss to the Indians, giving up all three runs on five hits in seven innings. Including that outing, seven of Wang’s eight starts this year have qualified as quality outings (at least six innings pitched and three earned runs or fewer allowed).
Wang is 3-0 with a 1.64 ERA in three road starts, yielding just four runs and 16 hits in 22 innings. Also, for his career, Wang is 7-4 with a 3.53 ERA in 12 starts against Tampa Bay, including a 2-0 home win on April 6 when he gave up four hits in six scoreless innings. In fact, the Yankees are 6-1 in Wang’s last seven starts against the Rays and 5-1 in his last six outings in Tampa Bay.
Jackson was brilliant on Thursday at Toronto, giving up just six hits and one walk in eight scoreless innings. He left with a 3-0 lead, but the Rays’ bullpen blew the advantage in the ninth inning, though Tampa Bay eventually prevailing 8-3 in extra innings. Jackson is 1-2 with a 4.44 ERA in four home starts.
Jackson faced New York twice in a 10-day span in April. He gave up a run on five hits in six innings of a 6-3 win in the Bronx, but got rocked in a 5-3 home loss, allowing all five runs on four hits in five innings. For his career, the right-hander is 2-2 with a 5.40 ERA in nine career games (five starts) against the Yankees.
The under is 6-2 in Wang’s eight starts this season (3-0 in the last three), 5-1-2 in his last eight starts versus Tampa Bay, 7-2 in Jackson’s last nine starts overall and 2-0 in Jackson’s two efforts versus New York this season. The under is also 5-1 in the last six series meetings between these rivals overall, but the over is 9-3-2 in the past 14 clashes at Tampa Bay.
For the Rays, the under is 7-2 in their last nine home games, while the over is 5-2 in their last seven against A.L. East foes. For the Yankees, the under is on runs of 27-10-1 overall, 7-0 against right-handed starters, 6-1 on the road and 13-5 against A.L. East rivals.
ATS ADVANTAGE: TAMPA BAY and UNDER
NBA PLAYOFFS
EASTERN CONFERENCE
(3) Orlando (5-4, 4-5 ATS) at (2) Detroit (7-3 SU and ATS)
After a stirring come-from-behind victory in Game 4 in Orlando, the Pistons return home looking to put the finishing touches on the Magic when the teams square off in Game 5 of this best-of-7 Eastern Conference semifinal series.
With star point guard Chauncey Billups (hamstring) on the sidelines in a suit, Detroit fell behind by 11 points at halftime on Saturday in Orlando. But Flip Saunders’ squad ratcheted up the defense over the final 24 minutes and outscored the Magic 46-34 and held on for a 90-89 victory as a 5½-point road underdog. For the first time in the series, Detroit held a rebounding advantage (39-35) and it prevailed despite shooting 4-for-13 from three-point range, compared with Orlando’s 10-for-18 effort from beyond the arc.
Detroit is now on a 10-1 run against the Magic in the playoffs, including sweeping them out of the first round last spring. The Pistons now lead the season series 5-3 SU and ATS, and the winner has cashed in all eight games. Also, the visitor is 16-8-3 ATS in the last 27 head-to-head matchups, but only 1-3 SU and ATS in this series.
The straight-up winner is now 21-1-1 ATS in Orlando’s last 23 games and 18-0 ATS in Detroit’s last 18.
The Pistons are on a 4-0 SU and ATS run at home in the postseason since losing Game 1 to the Sixers in the opening round. For the season, they’re 38-8 inside the Palace of the Auburn Hills (30-16 ATS). Meanwhile, the Magic are 1-3 SU and ATS on the highway in the playoffs after going 27-14 SU and ATS as a visitor in the regular season.
Orlando is still on ATS streaks of 8-5 against the Eastern Conference, 7-3-1 against Central Division squads, 8-3-1 on Tuesdays and 29-11-1 after a non-cover. However, they’re mired in pointspread slumps of 3-7-1 as an underdog and 1-5-1 as a playoff underdog catching between five and 10½ points.
Detroit is 11-3 SU and ATS in its last 14 games going back to the regular season. The Pistons are also on pointspread runs of 5-0 as a favorite, 13-3 at home, 5-1 against the Southeast Division, 7-2 against the Eastern Conference, 8-3 in conference semifinal action and 4-1 after a victory.
Games 1 and 4 of this series stayed under the total, while the middle contests flew over the posted price. That said, the over is still 9-4 in the last 13 series meetings overall and 10-2 in the last 12 battles in Detroit.
From there, however, both teams are in the midst of several “under” streaks, including 13-5 for the Magic overall, 9-2 for the Magic on the road, 5-1 for the Magic as an underdog and 7-2 for the Magic against the Central Division. The under is also 15-7 in Detroit’s last 22 overall, 11-5-1 in its last 17 on two days’ rest, 13-5 in its last 18 as a favorite and 17-6 in its last 23 versus the Eastern Conference.
ATS ADVANTAGE: DETROIT and UNDER
WESTERN CONFERENCE
(3) San Antonio (6-3, 4-4-1 ATS) at (2) New Orleans (6-3, 5-4 ATS)
Having clawed their way back into this best-of-7 series with a pair of convincing home victories, the Spurs now head back to the Big Easy for a pivotal Game 5 showdown against the Hornets, who are unbeaten at home in the postseason.
San Antonio imploded in a pair of double-digit losses in New Orleans in Games 1 and 2, but rebounded with a pair of double-digit routs at home, including Sunday’s 110-80 victory as a 5½-point favorite. In the Game 4 rout, the Spurs outshot the Hornets 51.3 percent to 40.2 percent and held a 45-36 edge in rebounding. Also, San Antonio’s All-Star trio of Tim Duncan (22 points), Manu Ginobili (15) and Tony Parker (21) combined for 58 points, 25 rebounds and 19 assists, even though none played as much as 35 minutes.
The season series is now tied 4-4. And since the visitor won the first two clashes in the regular season, the home team has taken the last six both SU and ATS. Also, the straight-up winner is 12-2 ATS in the last 14 head-to-head contests, including 8-0 ATS in the eight battles this year. Finally, the favorite is 11-4 ATS in the last 15 meetings, including 4-0 ATS in this particular playoff series.
Despite the results of the last two games, the Hornets continue to sport a bunch of positive ATS trends, including 43-21-1 overall, 36-15-1 after a SU loss, 19-7-1 as a favorite, 8-0-1 as a favorite of less than five points, 21-7 as a home favorite, 7-1 as a playoff favorite and 7-2-1 on Tuesdays. On the downside, New Orleans is just 3-7 ATS in its last 10 conference semifinal games.
Even though San Antonio has gotten the cash the last two games and is 5-0-2 ATS in its last seven Tuesday affairs, the rest of the team’s ATS trends are all negative, including: 1-7 on the road, 1-5 as an underdog (all on the road), 0-4 as a playoff underdog of less than five points, 3-13 as an underdog of less than five points.
The over was 2-0-1 in the first three games of this series, but Sunday’s contest stayed low. The under is now 9-4-1 in San Antonio’s last 14 as an underdog of less than five points and 5-1 in New Orleans’ last six games played on one day of rest.
Otherwise, both teams are in the midst of the following “over” trends: 4-1-1 for New Orleans at home, 5-1-1 for New Orleans as a favorite, 8-1-1 for New Orleans in the conference semifinals, 8-2-1 for San Antonio overall, 4-1-1 for San Antonio on the road, 5-2-1 for San Antonio versus Central Division rivals and 13-5-1 for San Antonio in the conference semifinals.
ATS ADVANTAGE: NEW ORLEANS and OVER
Alex Smart
Boston Red Sox -155
The Boston Red Sox send the ace of their staff Josh Beckett to the hill tonight, to face a struggling Baltimore Orioles lineup, that is hitting .239 against righties like himself , this season, and a lowly .222 in their L/10 overall. Beckett has pitched well in the past vs the Orioles as is evident, by a 4-1 recored and a stable 2.95 ERA in 6 career starts, which includes 38 strikeouts in just a little over 43 innings of work. On the other hand we have a BoSox team that are hitting .332 during their L/10 games will get to tee off on a average looking Orioles hurler in Geremy Guthrie (1-3,3.42 ERA). Considering the pitching matchup, and the current form of both offenses, it will be an easy decision to recommend backing the men from Beantown to bring home the dough. Final notes & Key Trends: Red Sox are 12-1 in Becketts last 13 starts as a favorite of -151 to -200.Red Sox are 6-0 in Becketts last 6 road starts vs. a team with a losing record. Orioles are 1-6 in Guthries last 7 starts as an underdog. Play on Boston
Vernon Croy
New York Yankees vs. Tampa Bay Rays
Play: New York Yankees
1 Unit, Take the NY Yankees, We are getting solid value here Tuesday night with the Yankees who have Chien-Ming Wang (6-1, 3.12 ERA) on the mound since the Yankees are 7-1 when he has started this season. Wang is 1-0 against Tampa Bay this season with an ERA of 0.00 and 7-4 in his Career with an ERA of just 3.53 against the Rays. I look for Wang to bounce back from his first loss of the season with a solid performance Tuesday against a team he has had a lot of success against in the past. The Yankees are 22-4 the last 26 times Wang has started after a Yankees loss. The Rays are just 4-13 in their last 17 games when Edwin Jackson (2-3, 4.04 ERA) has started off a quality start which he had in his last outing which was against Toronto lasting 8 innings while allowing no earned runs on 6 hits. Jackson has struggled against the Yankees in the past with a 2-2 record and an ERA of 5.47 and I look for the Yankees to bounce back tonight after losing last night to the Rays. Take the Yankees as my MLB Free Play for Tuesday night and make sure you get on my MLB Smash of the Month.
Matt Fargo
Seattle Mariners vs. Texas Rangers
Play: Texas Rangers
The Mariners are in a major skid right now and they just cannot seem to be able to turn the corner. Seattle has dropped 11 of its last 13 games and 15 of its last 19 as both the offense and the pitching is causing the problems. The bats have mustered two runs or fewer in eight of the last 12 games and the Mariners have averaged a mere 3.5 rpg over their last 23 games. The pitching has not been quite as bad but it has allowed five runs or more in seven of the last 13 games.
While Seattle can’t seem to shake its slump, the Rangers have done just that. Texas had dropped 12 of 14 games but since then it has gone a very solid 12-5 including wins in 10 of its last 13 games. The pitching was getting lit up on a nightly basis but that pitching has turned the corner is a big way, allowing three runs or fewer in eight of the last 12 games. The offense has been up and down but the Rangers have plated 25 runs over the last three games and are hitting .297 at home against righties.
Felix Hernandez was clearly miffed as he has been vocal about the lack of run support the starting pitching is receiving. He has received four runs or fewer in seven of his eight starts on the season so he does have some room to complain. While the run support has not been there, his pitching has been pretty rough as he has a 7.13 ERA over his last three starts, all being losses. He is just 4-5 with a 4.32 ERA in 12 starts against the Rangers including 2-3 with a 7.71 ERA and 1.64 WHIP in five starts in Texas.
Kason Gabbard pitched well in his first start since returning from the disabled list before being forced to leave. He has been pitching well enough to keep the Rangers in games as he stays out of trouble. He was coming off a medical rehabilitation assignment in Double-A and he will need to lengthen his stay this time around. He has allowed three runs or fewer in his five starts this year and the Rangers have gone 4-1 in those contests. Hs is a perfect 6-0 with a 2.63 ERA in nine career home starts in Texas and Boston. Play Texas Rangers 1.5 Units
James Patrick Sports
Penguins vs. Flyers
Trailing their Keystone State rivals 2-0 in the Eastern Conference Final, the Flyers have to win game three on Tuesday Night in the Wachovia Center if they have any aspirations at all of playing for the Stanley Cup Championship this season. Our selection is Philadelphia Flyers in NHL Play-off action.
Marc Lawrence
Play On: LA Angels w/Weaver
Note: When the Halos play host to the Pale Hose in Los Angeles Tuesday night they'll send Jered Weaver to the hill knowing he is 2-0 with an 0.77 ERA in his career team starts agasint Chicago. With the Anglers 11-4 in their last fifteen games on Tuesdays, look for Weaver to continue his winning ways here this evening.
Jimmy The Moose
Game: Detroit Tigers at Kansas City Royals
Prediction: Kansas City Royals
Reason: Detroit has lost 7 of their last 9 games. In their last 19 games vs. a right-handed starter they are 5-14. Detroit is 2-5 in Robertson's 7 starts this season. In his last 29 road starts the Tigers are 8-21. The Royals haven't played much better this season but they do have the Tigers number so far this season. The Royals have won all 3 meetings between the clubs. The Tigers are 1-4 in Robertson's last 5 starts vs. the Royals. KC sends Greinke to the mound and the Royals have won 5 of the last 7 games he's started vs. the Tigers. Play on the Royals -.
Las Vegas Sports Pics
Philadelphia - 125* over Atlanta (action)
Atlanta is an MLB worst 5-14 on the road. Philadelphia is 10-3 in 13 Kendrick career home starts including 1-0 versus Atlanta. Phillies are 8-4 last 12 meetings.
Houston (Backe) + 110* over (at) San Francisco (Cain)
San Francisco is 2-6 last eight games and 7-14 last 21 Cain home starts. Houston is 9-1 last ten games including 4-0 on the current West coast road trip.
Big Al McMordie
Colorado Rockies vs. Arizona D-Backs
Play: Arizona D-Backs
At 9:40pm ET our complimentary selection is on the Arizona Diamondbacks over the Colorado Rockies. The Diamondbacks are probably very glad to be back home in the Arizona desert. After all, the team is returning from the windy city and a very tough three games in which they were swept by the Cubs in what could be a preview of the National League Playoffs. This is certainly not what the D-Backs wanted, but if they were going to lose a series this way, it's no doubt better that it happen now in May. The fact is that Arizona probably has nothing to worry about. They still have one of the best records in baseball, they have probably the best top 2 starters in the National League, and they just got some good news regarding lefthander Doug Davis, who had successful surgery for thyroid cancer and will probably be back in the rotation before the end of the month. Another lefthander, veteran Randy Johnson, will go to the mound for the D-Backs in this one, and although his numbers on the season are anything but impressive, this is probably the ideal spot for him to bounce back and put himself and his team on the right track again. In his only start against the Rockies in '07, Johnson was totally dominating in shutting them out over six innings with nine strikeouts. Colorado is batting a dismal .218 vs. southpaws in '08 and tonight's starter, Jeff Francis, another lefty, has already faced the D-Backs twice this season (once at home and once in Arizona), and he's gotten blasted in both of those outings. Despite his less-than-stellar ERA, Johnson is 2-1 on the season and his team has won each of his last three starts. Take the Diamondbacks.
Sportsbettingstats
San Antonio Spurs at New Orleans Hornets
The Spurs tied the series at 2-2, as they beat the Hornets in game 4 100-80. The home team has won all 4 games in this series, as they shift back to New Orleans for the all-important game 5. The defending champion Spurs looked down and out against the upstart Hornets, but played great basketball at home to even the series. The big gun for the Spurs in game 4 was Tim Duncan, who had a monster game scoring 22 points on 10/13 shooting and also grabbed 15 rebounds. Tony Parker also had a solid game for the Spurs scoring 21 points on 8/12 shooting and dished out 8 assists. In game 4 the Spurs shot 39/76 for a scorching field goal percentage of 51.3%. The Spurs dominated the glass in game 4 out rebounding the Hornets 45-36 and also had 15 more assists (27-12). The high scorer for the Hornets in game 4 was Chris Paul who went for 23 points on 10/16 shooting. In game 4 the Hornets shot 33/82 for a field goal percentage of 40.2%.
Staff Pick: The Spurs were outplayed in New Orleans, but coming back to San Antonio they played old fashioned defensive basketball, which is how they played in their championship years. The point guard match up in this series has been a wash, as both Chris Paul and Tony Parker have played great. The key to this game may be the Hornets Tyson Chandler, who only had 2 points and 4 rebounds in game 4. If he can play some decent D on Duncan and score some points the Hornets have a good chance to win. The Hornets have to have a second scoring option besides Paul, as in game 4 David West was the only other player for the Hornets who scored in double digits and he only had 10 points. This may be the game where experience will play a factor, as the Spurs have been in this playoff situation many times and the Hornets have not. The intensity in New Orleans for game 5 will be electric, but if there is any team that can handle it, it’s the Spurs. Look for a close game but for Duncan and company to come up big, as they know how to win in this pressure packed situation. The Spurs will win this game and head back to San Antonio to try to close out the series.
Spurs 98 Hornets 94
Jim Feist.
ORL Magic and DET Pistons
Take Over
Orlando doesn't play much defense on the road, giving up 100 ppg this season. In the playoffs, they allowed 100 and 91 in the first two games in Detroit. Orlando does have a fine uptempo offense, one that averages 104 ppg. They are not going to win a slow, defensive style game here, especially after blowing a big lead the last game as the pace slowed down in the second half. With Chauncy Billups ailing, in makes even more sense for Orlando to go uptempo and Detroit is fine with that, averaging 99 ppg at home. The OVER is 5-3 when these teams have met this season. Play the Magic/Pistons over the total!
Dave Cokin
LA Dodgers and MIL Brewers
Take LA Dodgers
Brad Penny was beyond dismal in his last start for the Dodgers. Penny really hasn't been very sharp most of the season to date, and his normally solid K/IP ratio is way down, causing me to speculate he may not be 100%. But Penny is less than stellar form is still lots better than Carlos Villanueva, who's getting trashed by opposing hitters. The Brewers don't figure to get more than five or six frames from Villanueva even if he's in better form here. With their bullpen in a chaotic state, that's trouble for Milwaukee here. I see the Dodgers getting the opener of this series."
Black Magic Sports
1 Unit on Philadelphia Phillies -125
Kyle Kendrick is 13-3 against the money line when the total is 10 or higher over the last 2 seasons. Philadelphia is 25-9 against the money line after 2 or more consecutive losses over the last 2 seasons. The Phillies will get back on track at home now that Jimmy Rollins is back in the lineup. Last year’s NL MVP has been vitally missed and the home fans in Philadelphia will show their appreciation when he returns home in Game 1 of this series with Atlanta. The Braves are 0-5 in their last 5 games as a road underdog. The Braves are 1-4 in Jo-Jo Reyes' last 5 road starts. The Phillies are 7-1 in their last 8 home games following a road trip of 7 or more days. The Phillies are 6-0 in Kendricks last 6 starts during game 1 of a series. Kendrick is just the man that will get Philadelphia back on track tonight. Cash in with the Phillies as the favorite.
Black Widow Sports
1* on Houston Astros +111
Brandon Backe is undefeated in 3 career starts against the San Francisco Giants. Backe owns a complete game shutout where he allowed just 4 hits through 9 innings in his second start against the Giants. This is a team he can dominate, as indicated by his lifetime 2.08 ERA when facing San Francisco. Houston is 9-1 in their last 10 games overall and swinging the bats as good as any other team in the league. The Astros are scoring over 6 runs per game during this hot streak. Matt Cain is 8-24 (-19.4 Units) against the money line when the total is 7 to 8.5 over the last 2 seasons. Brandon Backe will get plenty of support tonight as the Astros stay red hot. Take Houston on the Money Line.
Info Plays
3* on Seattle Mariners -114
Play On - Road teams when the money line is +125 to -125 (SEATTLE) - bad offensive team (<=4.5 runs/game) against a good starting pitcher (ERA<=4.20), with a starting pitcher who throws more than 6.5 innings per start. This is a 39-19 ML System hitting 67.2 % since 1997 in favor of the Seattle Mariners and Felix Hernandez. Hernandez is 2-3 on the season despite a brilliant 3.42 ERA on the year. Hernandez has been even better in his two road starts with just a 2.78 ERA away from home. The Mariners broke out of their slump at the plate by putting up 12 runs against the Rangers last night. Only this time, Hernandez will keep Texas in check as Seattle pulls out the victory with plenty of run support for King Felix. Bet Seattle on the road.