Shawn Michaels
Cubs Run Line
PlusLineSports
Boston Red Sox ( Beckett) vs. Baltimore Orioles (Guthrie)
Boston Red Sox -1.5
Yankee Capper
3 Units - Oakland Athletics
2 Units - Pistons/Magic Over 186
Wunderdog
Pittsburgh at Philadelphia
Pick: Game Total OVER 5.5 -125
We like this game to go OVER. The Penguins allowed 2.8 goals per game on the road this season while the Flyers allowed 2.8 at home and scored 3.2 at home. Philly is averaging 3.4 per game in the playoffs. In post All-Star play, the Flyers are 30-17 OVER the past two seasons against winning teams. That includes a 13-5 OVER mark against teams at .600 or better and a 17-7 OVER mark against good goalies that save 91.5%+ of shots on goal. This season the Flyers are 24-12 OVER after having won 4+ of their last six games. We'll take the OVER here.
Priceless Picks
1 Unit on Seattle Mariners -107
The M's have had a rough time on the road this season but I like them tonight with Hernandez dealing. The Mariners are 20-6 in Hernandez's last 26 starts when their opponent allows 5 runs or more in their previous game, 11-5 in Hernandez's last 16 starts vs. the American League West, 4-0 in Hernandez's last 4 road starts with the total set at 9.0-10.5, and 8-3 in his last 11 starts vs. a team with a losing record. The Rangers are only 6-13 in their last 19 home games vs. a team with a road winning % of less than .400 and 5-15 in their last 20 games vs. a starter with a WHIP greater than 1.30. Bet the M's on the road tonight.
Dave Malinsky
Boston (RL) @ Orioles (RL)
PICK: Orioles (RL)
In cashing a 4* Run Line ticket against the Red Sox with Minnesota last night, we were able to deal with the usual market bias of a “public” road favorite having the Run Line adjusted a bit too far, and also of just how over-rated Boston is in the role. Now it is time for more of the same, as we get the ability to take Jeremy Guthrie and a fully rested Baltimore bullpen +1.5 in basically a pick’em range.
Here are the numbers for the Red Sox away from Fenway the past two seasons - 43-70 as -1.5 on the road, including 8-14 this season. But because they have those World Series rings, and Josh Beckett is taking the mound, they carry a reputation far beyond that, which creates our value. But it has not been merely a case of not getting margins on the road this season; they have lost 12 of those 22 games outright, and are now caught in the rare scheduling lay-out of nine straight road games without a day off.
Meanwhile the Orioles will perceive this as a major opportunity at only 3.5 games out of first place in the AL East, buoyed with the confidence of a 10-6 home opening to the season. They had Monday off after a road trip of their own, and now send the dependable Guthrie to the mound. Since he entered the starting rotation full-time on May 8 of LY he has become a classic “battler”, keying a run of 23-10 as +1.5 over 33 starts, a span in which he has allowed three runs or less 26 times. He worked to a solid 2.41 over 18.2 innings against the Red Sox LY, and for the second straight season is allowing fewer hits than innings pitched, showing the kind of stuff that he can bring. Matched with a defense that is currently #1 in the Major’s on our best set of ratings he can continue his form, and with the entire bullpen rested and ready, this one does not break open.
Gamblers Data
Cubs
Donald Tran
New York Yankees -135
Jennifer Barry
LA Dodgers -105
Chad Jordan
San Antonio at New Orleans Over 186.5
SPORTS MEMO
DODGERS / BREWERS OVER
USA Sports Consulting
MARLINS 145
Winning Colors Picks
Hornets -3
Valley Sports
Indians -130
Sports Book Edge
Dodgers/Brewers Ov.8.5
Ferrall
AL FREE B's FOR TUES:
TEXAS +105 on ML over Mariners--Gabbard knocks off Felix Hernandez in Arlington. The Rangers have looked great lately, going 8-3 in last 11.
ROYALS -125 on ML over Tigers--Kansas City's Greinke keeps having an incredible run. He's 4-1 with a 1.80 ERA. He's 7-3 career vs Detroit. Greinke has struck out 21 in his last 3 starts while allowing only 6 earned runs.
Toronto -105 on ML over Minnesota--Litsch is 4-1 with a 4.24 ERA. He's won 2 of his last 3. Slowey gets lit every time out for the Twins. His ERA is 6.48. TAKE THE OVER 9 RUNS
NL FREE B's FOR TUES:
DODGERS -115 on ML over Milwaukee--Brad Penny beats Villanueva in Brew Town. Penny is 5-3 overall and 2-1 in his last 3 starts. Villanueva is 1-4 with an 8.44 ERA in his last 3 outings. TAKE THE OVER 9 RUNS
Pirates +135 on ML over Cardinals--TAKE THE UNDER 9.5 RUNS and go with Dumatrait over Kyle Lohse. The Bucs young starter has looked sharp, going 1-1 with a 3.86 ERA. He's allowed only 4 earned runs. Lohse has been terrible lately, going 1-2 in last 3 and allowing 16 earned runs. The Cardinals have dropped 5 of 6 and arent hitting or scoring runs over the last week.
Houston +110 on ML over Giants--How can you not take the Astros right now ? They've won 10 of 11 and rallied from down 3-0 last night in SF to win again. Lance berkman is on FIRE , hitting .641 in May. He's scored a run in 15 straight games. The Giants are 5-12 vs the NL Central.
SportsKingz
MLB
BOSTON -175
YANKEES -145
DODGERS -115
K.C. -125
NBA
DETROIT -6.5
NEW ORLEANS -3
JeffMoney
Yanks -135 (POD)
Mets Un 8.5, -115
Royals -125
Hornets -3.5
Erik Scheponik
San Antonio Spurs vs. New Orleans Hornets
Play: San Antonio Spurs
Aware that home teams have absolutely destroyed it in this year's playoffs, especially in this 2nd round (15-1 SU, 14-2 $), but we'll buck that here in support of playoff experience. The Spurs have been in this situation seemingly every season for the last decade, while the Hornets simply have not. Now San Antonio wasn't any more dominant at home the last two games than the Hornets were the 2 games before that, but can New Orleans come back with the same confidence and composure the way San Antonio did? Spurs are the better defensive team in this series, and as this series gets deeper and deeper that should be the key. Line on the way up, and we'll play contrarian. New Orleans by only 1
Tony Karpinski
Detroit Tigers vs. Kansas City Royals
Play: Kansas City Royals
Detroit at KC (Baseball Action) 8:10pm ET Looking to avenge a series sweep that got their season off on the wrong foot, the last-place Tigers hope to trade places with the Royals in the AL Central on Tuesday night when these teams open a three-game set at Kauffman Stadium. Detroit (16-22) missed the playoffs last season, a year after reaching the World Series, and responded by making a blockbuster trade in the offseason. Acquiring Miguel Cabrera and Dontrelle Willis from Florida for six prospects helped make the Tigers a popular pick as the AL's best team going into the season. The KC Royals are playing solid ball and getting good pitching from their starters and relievers. Pick on the KC ROYALS
LT Profits
Philadelphia Phillies -135
The Atlanta Braves are just 5-14 on the road this season, so they should have their hands full when the visit the Philadelphia Phillies tonight.
Phillies starter Kyle Kendrick may have a high 4.93 ERA, but that figure is skewed by a couple of short outings earlier in the year. Kendrick has now found his form however, with three Quality Starts in his last four appearances, and he allowed two and three runs respectively in his two career starts vs. the Braves, which both came last season. Also, should Kendrick need some relief, Philadelphia now leads the Major Leagues with a bullpen ERA of 2.75.
Jo-Jo has been erratic for the Braves, and his 2.25 ERA is extremely deceptive considering his horrible 1.75 WHIP. We have always felt that WHIP was the much truer indicator of a pitcher’s ability, so it is more likely that Reyes’ ERA will rise to line up with his poor WHIP than the other way around. Also, their may be some fatigue involved for the Braves, who played a doubleheader yesterday.
Look for Kendrick and the fine Phillies bullpen to keep the Atlanta bats in check here.
Pick: Phillies -135
Florida Marlins +150
Edinson Volquez of the Cincinnati Reds certainly looks like the real deal, but he also looks overpriced here vs. Mark Hendrickson and the surprising Florida Marlins.
Yes, Volquez is 5-1 with a 1.06 ERA and a 1.23 WHIP overall, and he has yet to allow more than two runs in a game. However, while he did toss seven scoreless innings at the Chicago Cubs in his last start with 10 strikeouts, he did also walk six batters, resulting in a season high 118 pitches thrown. Thus, it would not be inconceivable for Volquez to be slightly off of his game tonight, and given the struggles of the Cincinnati offense this season (last night notwithstanding), and less than perfect outing may not result in a Reds win.
This is because Florida starter Mark Hendrickson is also off to a fine start at 5-1 with a 3.56 ERA, and his fine WHIP of 1.25 is on par with Volquez. Hendrickson has now gone seven consecutive starts without allowing more than three earned runs, and even if he is in need of support, the Marlins are currently tied for third in the Major Leagues with a bullpen ERA of 3.18, making them a Bullpen System play in this spot.
Florida has their seven-game winning streak snapped here last night by a narrow 8-7 score, bu we look for them to start a new streak at a great price tonight.
Pick: Marlins +150
GINA
Orlando Magic (57-34) at Detroit Pistons (66-26)
Orlando is 1-3 on the road in this year's playoffs and a horrible 1-11 in Motown. Look for the Pistons to close the curtains on Orlando tonight in Game 5, at The Palace of Auburn Hills. Detroit has won and covered the spread in the first two game at home versus the Magic and are 3-1-1 ATS in the last five fights with Orlando at the Palace.
Detroit Pistons
Detroit Pistons - 6½
New Orleans -3
MLB
San Diego Padres (14-25) at Chicago Cubs (23-15)
The Padres have dropped five straight away from home, just 6-15 on the road this year and have lost 12 of the last 17 meetings in Chicago. San Diego will send Shawn Estes to the mound. The lefthander will make his first major league start in over two years. He is 5-3 with a 5.70 ERA in 12 career starts against the Cubs, his former team.
Chicago has won five of their last six games and five of its last six at home. They will counter with Jason Marquis. The right-hander has struggle in his last two starts, 1-2 with a 5.08 ERA. Marquis is 3-2 with a 3.38 ERA in six career starts against the Padres.
Go with the Chicago Cubs tonight at Wrigley Field. The Cubs will be facing a sorry road team with limp bats.
Chicago Cubs - 165
Locksmith Sports
1 Unit on St. Louis Cardinals -149
The Cards have been one of the best home teams in the league in the early going while the Pirates have been one of the worst on the road. We'll take the Red Birds at home tonight as they look to rebound from a series loss to the Brewers. First of all, the Pirates are 17-41 in the last 58 meetings and 8-21 in the last 29 meetings in St. Louis. The Cardinals are 25-11 in their last 36 games as a home favorite, 11-5 in their last 16 home games following a road trip of 7 or more days, and 12-5 in their last 17 games following a loss. The Pirates are an eye-popping 27-72 in their last 99 road games vs. a team with a winning record. That's just not getting it done on the road. They are also only 19-45 in their last 64 games as a road underdog. The Pirates have made some improvements this season but they are still your dog's chew toy on the road. Take the Red Birds here.