The Prez
SA/NO OVER
PSYCHIC
NBA
4 units Orlando +6
MAJOR
5 units New Orleans -3
WISEGUY
MLB
1 unit Baltimore +151
DA STICK
NHL
5 units Philadelphia +100
MLB
5 units Philadelphia -117
10 units Baltimore +150
John Ryan
Game: Orlando Magic at Detroit Pistons
Prediction: Orlando Magic
Reason: Ai Simulator 10* graded play on Orlando – AiS shows an 86% probability that Orlando will lose this game by 6 or fewer points and a 50% probability that they may win the game SU as well. Nelson made the guarantee and the Pistons pretty much ignored it. Well, based on the AiS summary data and projections they better pay attention and know that Orlando is coming to play well and that they do not feel they are completely out of this series. Let’s first look at the supporting cast of game dependent angles supporting this 10* Monster. Orlando is 11-3 ATS (+7.7 Units) after having lost 3 of their last 4 games this season; 15-3 ATS (+11.7 Units) revenging a straight up loss versus opponent as a favorite this season; 10-2 ATS (+7.8 Units) revenging a straight up loss versus opponent as a home favorite this season; 19-3 ATS (+15.7 Units) revenging a same season loss versus opponent this season; 25-8 ATS (+16.2 Units) after 1 or more consecutive losses this season; 18-9 ATS (+8.1 Units) after 4 straight games forcing opponent to commit 14 or less turnovers this season. Based on the grading I also like an optional 3* wager on the Money line. Supporting this ML play are two solid systems. The first one has produced a record of 66-57 and has made 39.3 units since 1996. Play on road teams versus the money line off an upset loss as a home favorite and is an extremely well rested team playing 5 or less games in 14 days. Here is a second system that has produced a mark of 27-16 and has made 9.8 units since 1996. Play on road teams versus the money line that is aan explosive offensive team scoring >=102 PPG and is now facing an average offensive team scoring 92-98 PPG and after a close loss by 3 points or less. Take Orlando.
Vegas Runner
3* game of month
Spurs +5 -120
Gavazzi Hoops + Baseball
4% Orlando Magic
4% Hornets under
3% N Orleans Hornets
2% Oakland A's
Winners Inc. Guaranteed Selections
TOP RATED HOME RUN BASEBALL WINNER
Chicago Cubs w/Marquis -163
Dr. Bob
NBA
Opinion
Orlando (+6 ½) over DETROIT
13-May-08 04:05 PM Pacific Time
Detroit won without Chauncey Billups in game 4 at Orlando, but the Pistons were in a great situation and that is not the case tonight. Orlando is 19-3 ATS with same season revenge and 25-7 ATS following a loss this season, including 17-3 ATS recently, so the Magic have proven that they can bounce-back. Billups has been upgraded to probable with his strained hamstring tonight, but my ratings only favor the Pistons by 6 ½ points with Billups playing at 100%, so getting 6 ½ points with him at less than 100% is decent line value. I’ll consider Orlando a Strong Opinion at +6 or more and I’ll lean with the Magic at +5 ½ points, and I’ll take Orlando in a 2- Star Best Bet at +7 points or more.
Opinion
NEW ORLEANS (-4) over San Antonio
13-May-08 06:35 PM Pacific Time
The home team has won easily in all 4 games in this series and I expect the Hornets to bounce back with a home win tonight after losing two games in San Antonio. The Spurs are just 16-29 ATS on the road this season, including 1-3 in the post-season and 6-17 ATS against the top 12 teams in the NBA this season (the 8 Western Conference playoff teams plus Golden State, Boston, Detroit, and Orlando). New Orleans is now 20-5 ATS following their last 25 games in which they did not cover the spread, so I expect the Hornets to play much better at home tonight. The Spurs apply to a 14-2 ATS game 5 situation but the Hornets apply to a 40-21-1 ATS general playoff situation and my ratings favor the Hornets by 6 points. I’ll consider New Orleans a Strong Opinion at -4 or less and I’ll lean with the Hornets at -4 ½ or -5 points (2-Star Best Bet at -3 or less)
Sebastian Sports
100* Det/Orlando Over
20* Phillies
20 Red Sox -1.5 Runs
100* Cubs -1.5 Runs
20* Magic
20* Spurs/Hornets Under
100* Penguins
The Hammer
PRIVATE INVESTORS CLUB BASEBALL PLAY OF THE DAY
Philadelphia Phillies
Winners Inc.
TOP RATED HOME RUN BASEBALL WINNER
Chicago Cubs w/Marquis -163
Ben Burns
BIG PLAY
Eastern Conf. GOW *5-0 L5
Orlando Magic
TOTAL ANNIHILATOR! 5-0 RUN
San Antonio/New Orleans Under
MTI
4-Star Orlando +6 over DETROIT
The question here is whether the Magic will come to play. They certainly have a right to be discouraged, as they could be a lot better than down 3-1 in this series. We expect that the Magic will not throw in the towel and that the Pistons will see no urgency to win this one.
In their 90-89 loss at home, Dwight Howard scored only 8 points on 3-of-12 shooting in 44+ minutes. This is a poor shooting percentage for any player, but for Dwight Howard, it is terrible. In his pro career, the Magic has played only six games in which they were seeking revenge for a loss in which Dwight Howard shot less than 33% from the field. They are a perfect 6-0 ATS.
As a team, the Magic are fantastic when seeking revenge for a loss in front of their home fans, going a perfect 11-0 ATS when facing a team they lost to at home in their previous same-season match-up.
A further look at the player-based trends offer more compelling evidence that Orlando is the side on which to be. The Magic are an unbelievable 21-0 ATS off a loss in which Dwight Howard logged 40+ minutes, as long as they weren't laying 8+ in that loss. This exclusive player-based trend was active once already in this playoff series and that was the game the Magic won 111-86. In addition, the Magic are 10-0 ATS after losing the previous matchup at home in which Jameer Nelson was NOT the Magic's high scorer, 6-0 ATS after a loss in which Rashard Lewis had more turnovers than assists and 11-0 ATS with less than three days rest vs a rested opponent when they are off a loss in which Rashard Lewis played more than 40 minutes.
Many are crediting the Pistons with a great comeback to win game four in Orlando. However, the truth is that the Magic didn't have the playoff experience to drive in the stake when they had a big lead. They relaxed on both offense and defense and the Pistons took advantage, as a veteran team will. However, they were used hard and this will be to their detriment here. Detroit is 0-10 ATS at home after Tayshaun Prince played more than 40 minutes the last two and 0-6 ATS after winning the previous matchup in which Richard Hamilton scored at least 30 points.
Finally, we have a league-wide system that has been perfect since the start of the 2001 NBA season. It reads, "The league is 9-0 ATS as a dog with two or more days of rest off a loss as a favorite in which the game was tied at the end of the third quarter, covering by an average of 11.2 ppg. The Magic qualify here.
The Pistons will not cover this based on skill. They need the Magic to have a defeatist attitude, and we see no evidence of this. Grab the points and consider a moneyline play on Orlando.
MTi's FORECAST: Orlando 94 DETROIT 92
4-Star NEW ORLEANS -3 over San Antonio
This series seems destined to go seven games, which means that the Hornets should "hold serve" here. Unlike some handicappers that sell their plays like used car salesmen on late night TV, the PhD scientists at MTi Sports support their theories with actual data and logical, scientific reasoning.
In game four of this series, San Antonio won 100-80 with Tim Duncan leading the way with 22 points on 10-of-13 shooting. He added 15 rebounds and 4 blocked shots as well. It is relevant to note that the Spurs are 0-15 ATS on the road after winning the previous matchup in which Tony Parker was NOT the Spurs' high scorer. In addition, San Antonio is 0-5 ATS on the road after winning the previous matchup at home in which Tim Duncan shot better than 66% from the field, failing to cover by an average of 12.1 ppg.
Another compelling piece of evidence comes from the fact that the Spurs didn't score much from the free-throw line in game four. It turns out that San Antonio is 0-8 ATS over the past year as a road dog with at least one day of rest after a game in which they scored less than 15% of their points from the free throw line. San Antonio has lost these games by an average of 16.6 ppg and failed to cover by an average of 13.1 ppg. Two of the eight qualifying games come from the playoffs. In last season's post-season the Spurs lost to the Jazz 109-83 getting two in Utah in this situation and in this post-season they lost to these Hornets 102-84 in this spot.
The Hornets are simply the best team in the league when seeking revenge at home. Since the beginning of the recently concluded 2007-08 season, they are a perfect 10-0 ATS at home when facing a team they lost to in their previous same-season match-up, winning by an average of 17.6 ppg and covering by an average of 12.7 ppg. They won EVERY SINGLE GAME by double-digits.
In addition, New Orleans is 9-0 ATS (7.2 ppg) after a loss in which they were outshot by at least 10 percent, 7-0 ATS (8.7 ppg) after a loss in which they had more turnovers than assists.
Lay the small number.
MTi's FORECAST: NEW ORLEANS 94 San Antonio 85
Elite Sports Circle
5000* BASEBALL ELITE WINNER
Chicago Cubs w/Marquis -162
Paul Leiner
750* NBA Over 186.5 NO/SA
20* NBA Magic +6.5
Bob Akmens
MLB: 4* BOSTON-163 (Beckett vs Guthrie)
MLB: 4* KANSAS CITY-122 (Greinke vs Robertson)
MLB 4* White Sox/Angels Under 9
NHL: 3* Penguins / Flyers OVER 5.5 (-125)
NBA: 3* Hornets -4