John Ryan
LAA Angels vs. Toronto Blue Jays
Play: Toronto Blue Jays
Ai Simulator 3* graded play on Toronto – Supporting this graded play is a system that has gone 39-8 and has made 32.2 units since 1997 for 83%. Play against road teams after 3 consecutive games versus an interleague opponent in May games. Anaheim is not in a good situation for this game noting that they are 43-48 (-21.6 Units) against the money line versus an AL team with a team batting average of .260 or worse over the last 2 seasons. Toronto is 250-171 (+56.4 Units) against the money line in home games versus good fielding teams averaging <=0.6 errors/game since 1997. Toronto starter McGowan is in a very strong role noting that he is 7-1 +6 units at home with a money line of -110 and higher. The Blue Jays starting staff has earned the win in 19 of the teams 22 victories. The 19 wins is tied for 3rd in the majors for most wins. Arizona leads the Majors with 24 and Anaheim leads the AL with 21. The Blue Jays starters rank 4th in ERA in the AL at 3.88 and lead the Majors with 408.1 innings pitched. Take Toronto.
Ben Burns
Texas Rangers @ Minnesota Twins
PICK: Minnesota Twins
REASON FOR PICK: When considering the bullpen stats, the fact that the Twins won, once yesterday's game got to extra innings, isn't particularly surprising. The Twins relievers have a combined 2.10 ERA and 1.193 WHIP at home. Conversely, the Rangers' relievers have a combined 5.87 ERA and 1.644 WHIP on the road. Texas Cloer C.J. Wilson gave up the tying run in the ninth inning last night and has now given up 11 earned runs in his last 11 1-3 innings. It's now been two weeks since he last converted a save.
I expect the Twins to build some momentum from that victory and for them to string together consecutive wins. Perkins has been solid in each of his two starts, lasting six complete innings both times while allowing three runs vs. Boston and two vs. Toronto. In the two combined starts, he has nine strikeouts to go along with just two walks. Note that Perkins has held the Rangers without a hit while walking one in 3 2/3 innings of scoreless relief work. He'll face a Texas lineup which has only averaged 4.2 rpg vs. southpaws, as opposed to 5.3 vs. right-handers. He'll also be opposed by a first-time starter. As Doug Mathis had to say: "I know I'm here because guys got hurt." With center fielder Carlos Gomez (scored winning run last night after coming off bench) expected to be back in the starting lineup and with the Twins now at 5-0 the last five times they were a host in this series, let's back the home team.
Locksmith Sports
1 Unit on Seattle Mariners +151
Verlander or the Tigers have shown that they should be getting this kind of respect at home where they are just 8-12 this season. The Tigers are 0-5 in their last 5 vs. a team with a losing record, 1-6 in their last 7 overall, and 2-7 in their last 9 games as a favorite. The Tigers are 1-7 in Verlander's last 8 starts as a favorite, 0-6 in Verlander's last 6 starts with 5 days of rest, 0-5 in Verlander's last 5 starts following a team loss in their previous game, and 0-4 in his last 4 starts overall. The Mariners are 4-0 in Silva's last 4 starts as an underdog and an impressive 13-5 in their last 18 games following an off day. Take the M's here as oddsmakers have grossly undervalued them.
Paul Leiner
50* DBacks -110
10* Celtics -4.5
Bryan Leonard
Milwaukee Brewers vs. Pittsburgh Pirates
Play: Pittsburgh Pirates
Pittsburgh over Milwaukee The Brewers are scuffling right now especially on the road losing nine straight as they head to Pittsburgh. Milwaukee are just 5-12 at PNC Park lately and 20-42 overall here, and they are lacking confidence right now after being pounded by the Red Sox last weekend. Milwaukee sends Manny Parra to the hill and he has yet to last more than four innings in any road start this year. He has an 8.25 ERA on the road allowing 30 base runners in 12 innings of work. The Pirates counter with Paul Maholm who has been golden at home with a 2.05 ERA. He has lasted 27.1 innings in his four home starts this season. Milwaukee started the year absolutely pounding lefties but that isn't the case anymore. They are averaging 4.62 runs per game vs lefties but no where near the 7 plus they were averaging earlier in the season. Pittsburgh meanwhile hits left-handers well averaging 6.37 runs per game vs southpaws. The Pirates have won seven of eight at home as of late and the last seven Paul Maholm starts here. PLAY PITTSBURGH
Brandon Lang
15 Dime - Cubs
5 Dime - Rockies
5 Dime - Pistons
Stephen Nover
Baltimore Orioles @ New York Yankees
PICK: Under
REASON FOR PICK: On the surface the total seems priced right for an Orioles-Yankees matchup with the starting pitchers being Daniel Cabrera and Mike Mussina.
But considering the way these two are pitching, the weather conditions and the hitting woes of these teams this month, the 'over/under' is set too high.
Cabrera has appeared to overcome his control problems. The talent has always been there, but now Cabrera is putting everything together. He's walked only one during his past two starts, spanning 16 innings. He's 4-1 in his last seven starts with a 2.45 ERA and 1.05 ratio. Opponents are batting just .202 against him during this span.
Mussina is pushing the clock back. The veteran has allowed only nine runs in his past five starts. He has a 2.76 ERA during this span with a 1.02 WHIP while holding foes to a .235 batting average.
Both pitchers should be helped by the wind blowing in tonight at Yankee Stadium.
It has been a tough May for the two teams. Both the Orioles and Yankees are averaging less than four runs per game during this month.
Erin Rynning
20* Philly/Wash Under 8
Reguar Play Oak/TB Under 7.5
Larry Ness
San Francisco Giants @ Colorado Rockies
PICK: Colorado Rockies
The Rockies and Giants were polar opposites last season. The Giants finished witha 71-91 mark and ranked dead-last in all of MLB with a minus-$2,067 mark against the moneyline ($100/game). As for the Rockies, who would eventually make it all the way to the World Series, they went 90-73 in the regular season last year and at plus-$2,466, were MLB's biggest "money-makers." Colorado was 51-31 and plus-$1,474 at home (also tops in MLB) and San Fran just 32-49 on the road in '07. Both have struggled for most of this season but the Rockies could be seeing "some light at the end of the tunnel," after winning three straight Meanwhile, the Giants have lost six straight nbd 12 of their last 15. Let's remember, Colorado pretty much features the same lineup which led the NL in team BA last year (.280) and scored the second-most runs in the NL. Both teams have hot pitchers on the mound for tonight's game, as San Fran's Lincecum is 5-1 with a 1.92 ERA in eight starts. He's yet to give up an earned run in three road starts in '08 (over 16 innings) but the fact remains that he is pitching for a team which is 6-14 on the road this year, while averaging a pathetic 3.05 RPG! Aaron Cook had won six straight decisions (team had won seven straight Cook starts) before losing to Arizona in his last outing. He'll take a 6-2 mark with a 2.82 ERA into this game (team is 7-2 in his starts) and his home mark is 2-0 with a 1.99 in three starts (Rockies are 3-0). I like Lincecum but I don't expect the Giants to give him too much support, while I "get the feeling" that the Rockies are starting to turn it around. Take Colorado.
Mike Rose
Chicago Cubs -122
Ryan Dempster will toe the bump for his 10th start of the year after closing for the Cubs the last couple seasons. His success within the starting rotation is certainly one of the contributing factors to Chicago’s hot start. He’s 5-2 with a 2.35 ERA and has allowed 35 hits and 22 runs (15 earned) in a shade over 57 total innings of work. Dempster struck out a career-high 12 batters and allowed six hits in his last outing against the Padres nearly posting a complete-game shutout. He’s been a tough luck loser on the road this season posting an 0-1 mark with a 0.90 ERA allowing just nine hits and eight runs (two earned) in 20 innings of work. His teammates have failed him both offensively and defensively on the road. In his career against the Astros, Dempster’s 3-6 with a 6.00 ERA and 1.64 WHIP, but he hasn’t faced them since 2003 as a starter.
Facing him will be Houston’s Chris Sampson who’ll be looking to even up his 2-3 mark and lower his bloated 6.46 ERA in his ninth start of the season. Overall, Sampson has allowed 55 hits and 30 runs (28 earned) with a K/BB ratio of 18/9 in 39 innings of work. At home this season, he’s been lit up like a Christmas tree sporting an 0-2 mark with a 15.75 ERA. Four of his L/5 starts have come on the road, but he was smashed in his last two outings in Houston allowing a combined 15 hits and 11 earned runs to both the Brewers and Rockies. That said, he’s dominated this Chicago franchise the few times he’s seen them going 2-0 with a 0.96 ERA and 0.75 WHIP in three career starts. He allowed a total of 12 hits and two earned runs in 18 2/3rd innings of work in those starts.
The Cubs are 5-3 on the road as favorites between –100 and –125 this season, and they’re 5-1 in Dempster’s L/6 starts against the NL Central. Making the Cubs an even sweeter investment tonight is the fact the Houston is 1-5 in Sampson’s L/6 as a home underdog, and 1-5 the L/6 times they’ve squared off against the Cubs.
Detroit the lean at +4.5 in Game One vs. Celtics
By Fairway Jay
As expected, the top two teams in the Eastern Conference will play for the chance to compete in the NBA finals. Not expected was the way the Celtics struggled to arrive here, as the league's best team during the regular season had to go seven games in both series against inferior opponents to advance. Prior to the playoffs, I posted the Detroit Pistons as my play to win the Eastern Conference, and I still feel good about their chances. Despite Boston’s dominance at home during the playoffs (8-0) and now winners of 14 straight at the TD Banknorth Garden, I believe the Pistons will win a game in the opening two contests before the series shifts to Detroit.
Now, will that victory come tonight in Game 1? I do believe the six days off with rest, preparation and practice is an advantage for Detroit , and not a notion of rust or loss of rhythm. Reports are that practices have been crisp and the players are very focused and ready to ‘bounce’ Boston. This veteran group of Pistons players has been through similar playoff battles and situations before as they now play in the Eastern Conference Finals for the sixth consecutive season. Here is a look at the position match-ups for this series, and I agree with most of the analysis. With a healthy Chauncey Billups at the point, Detroit should have an advantage at the guard position overall and the Pistons will have a solid edge if Ray Allen continues to struggle while he tries to take on and keep up with fellow UCONN guard Richard Hamilton. Rajon Rondo has played well for Boston at point guard, and will encounter his toughest challenge and most physical match-up facing both Billups and Stuckey. Rondo's quickness and 'drive' will be Billups toughest assignment yet in the playoffs. Rasheed Wallace has the chance to be dominant inside against Kendrick Perkins, and Boston may have to rely on extra help from Kevin Garnett to contain ‘Sheed. I also prefer the bench and reserve role players of the Pistons, as Jason Maxiell had a solid series against Orlando and will get plenty of minutes to assist Antonio McDyess in trying to contain Kevin Garnett. Rookie backup point guard Rodney Stuckey was solid in ‘relief’ of Billups for three games of the Orlando series.
Clear coaching edge goes to Flip Saunders over Doc Rivers, and if Boston by chance advances in this series, it will be an even greater advantage for the Western Conference coach in the NBA finals. Another note not mentioned or discussed much is Saunders' familiarity with Celtics star Kevin Garnett, as Saunders coached him for nine seasons in Minnesota and should have a good idea on how to at least contain Garnett, the NBA’s defensive Player-of-the-Year and Boston’s dominant interior player. While Paul Pierce may be Boston’s main scoring threat, it’s my opinion that Garnett will be the determining factor on weather Boston is able to advance.
Detroit has been very impressive thus far through the playoffs, and appears to be the better and more ‘together’ team in my estimation. They are primed to return to the NBA finals following last year's missed opportunity in the conference finals when they blew a 2-0 series lead and let LeBron James take over and lead the Cavs to the NBA finals. Detroit had a decided edge at nearly every position except for superstar James in the conference finals a year ago, but could not come through. This is likely the last chance that the core group of Billups, Hamilton, Prince and Wallace will have to be the main ‘characters’ in leading Detroit back to the NBA finals. I expect the Pistons to prevail, which will also have me backing them with my betting dollars throughout this series.
Thus, I prefer to take the points (+4.5) with Detroit in Game 1 following Boston’s grueling and emotional Game 7 against Cleveland on Sunday. Boston lost the final five games ATS in the Cleveland series. And despite Boston’s defensive dominance and Detroit’s ability to play physical and in the half-court, this Game 1 has some solid situational profiles that point to an ‘over’ the total play (174). I’ve bet both Detroit and the ‘over’, with the total play slightly stronger. The posted total in the three regular season contests between these two teams was 181-183, and while each contest went 'under' the total, the line adjustment is too much considering the situation. The rested and ready Pistons team has balanced scoring and faces a fatigued Boston bunch not positioned to bring their best defensively in the opening game. Remember, Games 5 and 7 in the Boston – Cleveland series both went ‘over’ the total by 9 and 16 points with similar posted totals in the mid 170s. Pending the result, I’ll likely come back with the Pistons and the points again in game 2.
Black Widow Sports
1* on Baltimore Orioles +142
Daniel Cabrera has come into his own this season with a 4-1 record and a 3.58 ERA to boot. Cabrera isn’t intimidated by pitching away from home. He owns a 2-1 road record with a 2.03 ERA on the season. Cabrera is 12-1 (+11.6 Units) against the money line vs. AL teams scoring 4.2 or less runs/game on the season since 1997. Cabrera is 20-5 (+14.4 Units) against the money line vs. an AL team with an on base percentage .320 or worse since 1997. The Yankees are in a serious slump right now and they aren’t magically going to get out of it tonight against Cabrera. Take the Orioles on the Money Line.
GINA
Detroit Pistons at Boston Celtics
The rested Pistons will give the Celtics a tough battle tonight in the Garden. Expect a close low scoring defensive battle in each game throughout this series. The underdog in this series has covered the spread in five of the last six meetings. Take the points!
Detroit Pistons
MLB
Los Angeles Angels at Toronto Blue Jays
The Angels have dropped their last their last 4 games away from home and lost five of right-hander John Lackey last six starts versus Toronto. Take the Blue Jays at Rogers Centre! Toronto has won six of their last 7 games overall and have taken the last five and eight of the last ten against the LA Angels at home.
Toronto Blue Jays - 120
Oscarxena Sports
Boston - 4 1/2 (4 Unit Play)
The first game of the Eastern Conference Finals takes place tonight in Boston as the Celtics take on the Pistons. These teams have been looking at each other all year as the teams that they would probably face for a berth to the NBA Finals and the series should be an all out war. I am reading a lot of information where people are actually favoring the Pistons in this series but quite frankly I am not buying into that. Sure the Pistons looked good and come in rested but these are professional athletes and Boston will be ready for this game tonight. They worked all season to gain home court advantage and I don't think they will throw it away tonight. They had to take on a Cavaliers team that Lebron James was leading with tremendous efforts and I don't see the Pistons having the type of player that can do that to them. They do have more offensive weapons but the Pistons will probably be a little rusty this evening. The Pistons are 0-6 ATS this year when taking on a team after 3 or more days rest and over the past three years are 1-11 ATS in Conference Finals Games. The Celtics are currently 58-37 ATS this year and I think this line is too low and look for a Celtic victory in Game 1 this evening
GamblersWorld.
TIP OF THE DAY
Baltimore Orioles vs. New York Yankees
Prediction: New York Yankees
The division rival Baltimore Orioles and New York Yankees are set to renew hostilities on Tuesday when they meet at Yankee Stadium. Righthander Daniel Cabrera will take the mound for the Orioles to start this game. Cabrera is 4-1 this season with a 3.67 ERA. Meanwhile, it'll be Mike Mussina who starts for the Yankees. Righthander Mussina is 6-3 with a 3.99 ERA so far this season. Oddsmakers currently have the Yankees listed as 140-moneyline favorites versus the Orioles, while the game's total is sitting at 8½. The Orioles lost to Washington 2-1 as a -150 favorite last time out. The three runs scored fell UNDER the posted over/under total (9). Brian Robert drove in the Orioles' lone run, while Jeremy Guthrie took the loss despite allowing only one run on five hits in seven innings. The Yankees lost to the Mets 11-2 as a -160 favorite on Sunday. The 13 runs scored went OVER the posted over/under total (8.5). Hideki Matsui socked a two-run home run for the Yankees, while Chien-Ming Wang was roughed up for seven runs on six hits in seven 2-3 innings. Current streak: New York has lost 3 straight games. Team records: Baltimore: 23-20 SU New York: 20-24 SU Baltimore most recently: When playing on Tuesday are 4-6 Before playing NY Yankees are 7-3 After playing Washington are 3-7 After a loss are 4-6 New York most recently: When playing on Tuesday are 4-6 Before playing Baltimore are 5-5 After playing NY Mets are 5-5 After a loss are 4-6 A few trends to consider: Baltimore is 4-1 SU in its last 5 games The total has gone UNDER in 16 of Baltimore's last 23 games on the road The total has gone OVER in 4 of Baltimore's last 6 games when playing on the road against NY Yankees Baltimore is 2-4 SU in their last 6 games when playing on the road against NY Yankees The total has gone UNDER in 8 of NY Yankees's last 11 games NY Yankees are 4-2 SU in their last 6 games when playing at home against Baltimore NY Yankees are 6-3 SU in their last 9 games when playing Baltimore The total has gone OVER in 4 of NY Yankees's last 6 games when playing at home against Baltimore