WUNDERDOG
Los Angeles Lakers at San Antonio
Pick: First Half UNDER 96.5 -110
The Lakers have been playing some of their best basketball of the year, but the 84 points in game three was their lowest output of the year. They realize what they have to do to win on the road here - play great defense and match the intensity of the Spurs. The Lakers will turn it up a notch on defense, especially at the game's onset. As we get deeper into the playoffs both of these teams continue to increase the defensive intensity. Los Angeles allowed 51 points per game in the first half during the regular season, but in the playoffs they have cut that to 48.9. In their last five games it has dropped to 46.8. San Antonio allowed 46 per game in the first half in the regular season but just 44.2 over their last five games. Under Popovich, the Spurs are 19-7 UNDER in the first half in the Conference Finals. We like the Spurs to come out fired up, play great defense keeping the first-half to come in UNDER the total.
Priceless Picks
1 Unit on Twins/Royals UNDER 8.5
With as well as Bannister has pitched at home, this game has UNDER written all over it. The Under is 7-1 in the Royals last 8 games as a home favorite of -110 to -150, 13-4 in the Royals last 17 home games with the total set at 7.0-8.5, and 38-13-2 in the Royals last 53 home games. The Under is 7-0 in Bannister's last 7 starts as a home favorite and 12-1-1 in Bannister's last 14 home starts. The Under is also 4-0 in the last 4 meetings in this matchup. Bet the UNDER.
Jeff Alexander Sports
1 Unit on Blue Jays/A's OVER 7.5 Runs
Oddsmakers have set the bar too low for these two teams tonight and we'll take advantage. The Over is 6-1-1 in the last 8 meetings in Oakland in this matchup and 6-2-2 in the last 10 meetings overall. The Over is 4-0 in the Athletics last 4 games as a home favorite, 5-2 in the Athletics last 7 vs. the American League East, and 7-3 in the Athletics last 10 home games vs. a team with a winning record. The Over is 4-0 in Burnett's last 4 starts during game 1 of a series, 5-2 in Burnett's last 7 Tuesday starts, and 9-4 in Burnett's last 13 starts after scoring 5 runs or more in their previous game. We'll take the OVER here.
JeffMoney
Orioles +115 (pod)
Braves -125
Angels -115
GamblersWorld.
TIP OF THE DAY
Los Angeles Lakers vs. San Antonio Spurs
Prediction: San Antonio Spurs
Current Line: -4.5 Over/Under: 192 Reason: The fans at the AT&T Center will be treated to a playoff game between the Los Angeles Lakers and the San Antonio Spurs when they take their seats on Tuesday night. Oddsmakers currently have the Spurs listed as 4.5-point favorites versus the Lakers, while the game's total is sitting at 192. The Spurs hammered the Lakers 103-84 as a 5.5-point favorite in Game 3 of the Western Conference Finals on Sunday. The combined score fell UNDER the posted over/under total (193.5). Manu Ginobili scored a team-high 30 points for San Antonio, while Tim Duncan added 22 points and 21 rebounds in the win. Kobe Bryant led the Lakers with 30 points and Pau Gasol netted 15 points in the loss. Team records: Los Angeles: 57-25 SU, 47-34-1 ATS San Antonio: 56-26 SU, 38-44 ATS Los Angeles most recently: When playing on Tuesday are 5-5 After playing San Antonio are 5-5 After a loss are 7-3 San Antonio most recently: When playing on Tuesday are 8-2 After playing LA Lakers are 7-3 After a win are 6-4 A few trends to consider: The total has gone UNDER in 8 of the LA Lakers last 9 games when playing on the road against San Antonio The total has gone UNDER in 5 of the LA Lakers last 6 games when playing San Antonio LA Lakers are 14-3 SU in their last 17 games The total has gone UNDER in 5 of the LA Lakers last 7 games on the road The total has gone UNDER in 5 of San Antonio's last 5 games San Antonio is 5-0 SU in its last 5 games at home The total has gone UNDER in 8 of San Antonio's last 9 games when playing at home against LA Lakers San Antonio is 5-0-1 ATS in its last 6 games at home
Gavazzi Hoops + Baesball
5% LA Lakers +4
3% Chicago Cubs
2% Baltimore Orioles
Rocketman Sports
San Francisco Giants vs. Arizona D-Backs
Play: Arizona D-Backs
San Francisco is 1-6 this year when playing with a day off. Arizona is 20-5 this year against division opponents. Arizona is 20-7 this year when playing against a team with a losing record. San Francisco is scoring only 3.7 runs per game overall this year, 3.5 runs per game on the road and 3.3 runs per game against right handed starters this season. Arizona is scoring a whopping 6 runs per game at home this year. Arizona bullpen has a 3.26 ERA overall this year and a 3.46 ERA at home this season. Haren is 5-0 with a 2.27 ERA at home this year. Arizona has won 4 of 5 against San Francisco this year. We'll recommend a small play on Arizona tonight!
DAVE MALINSKY 5*
Texas Rangers @ Tampa Bay Rays
PICK: Over
Sometimes performance patterns (or “trends”, if you like) can point us in the right direction in terms of getting ahead of something that the marketplace is slow to catch up on. That is a pretty common thought process. What is not nearly as common is looking for patterns to reverse when the market is attaching too much weight to something that is misleading. And that provides tonight’s value.
Tampa Bay has played to a 19-9 Under tune at home so far. And just what does that mean? It tells us that Scott Kazmir (3-0/0.47 at home) and James Shields (3-1/1.75 at home) are becoming dominating performers from this mound. It also tells us that the Rays have also caught some opponents that were short-handed offensively (in a 6-1 Under home-stand, they faced the Yankees without Rodriguez and Posada, and the Angels with multiple infield starters missing). And the Tampa offense has also been up against a slew of talented pitchers here so far.
None of this, of course, means anything in a Vicente Padilla/Andy Sonnanstine matchup, and as such we are able to take advantage of tonight’s short price.
Padilla gets a measure of respect that he does not deserve for that 6-2/3.33 opening to the season. There are seven unearned runs that do not show in that accounting, and it is not as though one or two bad games were part of that - in four different starts he has allowed at least one unearned run, which is what can happen with a weak defense behind him (Texas leads the Major League’s in errors). Meanwhile Sonnanstine is not Kazmir or Shields. He has worked to a 6.14 tune over 15 career starts here at Tropicana Field and his stuff is just ordinary - he has twice as many hits allowed (72) as strikeouts (36), which is an indication that long relief may be a part of his future.
The flip side of the pitching equations? Texas is tied for 1st in the A.L. in runs scored, 2nd in batting average, and 1st in home runs. Tampa Bay is 5th in the league in all three of those categories. The Rangers are also second in the A.L. in walks, while the Rays lead the league in stolen bases. And both offenses are loaded with left-handed punch that can attack mediocre right-handed pitching. So in a game in which we only need for each side to reach four runs to be guaranteed that we get at least a refund, there is plenty of value here.
Oscarxena Sports
New York Mets -1 1/2 Runs +1.21 (3 Unit Play)
I am not a huge fan of laying the run line on home teams and especially on teams playing badly like the Mets but I will take a shot here today on Santana here tonight. Although the Mets lost again last night I believe this team has too much talent not to get turned around soon and with management standing behind Willie Randolph I think the players will settle in and start to win. In starting to win they will need to get outstanding pitching and they probably have one of the best starters on the mound tonight in Johan Santana. The Mets have went 7-3 so far this year in Santana's starts and he has been very good in his career against the Marlins going 3-0 with a 1.96 ERA in three starts. Santana has also had good success with HP umpire Ed Rapuano as his teams are 2-0 with two Unders with him behind the plate. The Marlins will counter with Andrew Miller who has been pitching very well lately but has not had much success against New York as he is 1-1 but has a 8.38 ERA and the Mets manhandled him earlier this year. I think if the Mets can score 4 runs in this game the run line is a winner and the Mets are 7-3 with Rapuano behind home plate the last 10 while Florida is 3-6. Take the Mets tonight.
Info Plays
3* on Braves/Brewers O 8.5
Dave Bush is 1-5 with a 6.70 ERA in 8 starts this season for Milwaukee. I could easily see the Braves scoring 9 runs themselves tonight. Bush is 14-1 OVER vs. teams who strand 7.5 or more runners on base per game over the last 3 seasons. Milwaukee is 29-13 OVER at home when the total is 7 to 8.5 over the last 2 seasons. Atlanta is 24-13 OVER in road games vs. teams whose hitters strike out 7 or more times/game over the last 2 seasons. Tim Hudson is in line for one of his worst starts of the season against a Brewers’ team scoring and giving up 5 runs per game over their last 7 games. Bet the OVER 8.5 runs.
Locksmith Sports
1 Unit on D-Backs -1.5 +139
The Giants are 3-8 in their last 11 overall and a terrible 3-11 in their last 14 games as an underdog. The Giants are also 1-7 in their last 8 games following an off day and 1-6 in their last 7 during game 1 of a series. The Diamondbacks are 20-6 in their last 26 vs. the National League West, 22-7 in their last 29 games as a home favorite of -151 to -200, and 5-0 in Haren's last 5 starts as a home favorite. The Giants are also 0-4 in their last 4 meetings in Arizona . Take the D-backs on the run line tonight as a return home gets this team going again.
BIG AL's AMERICAN LEAGUE WINNER
Royals
BIG AL's 100% ATS SAN ANTONIO/LAKERS GAME 4 WINNER
Lakers
Jeffersonsports
MLB Early Releases
Oakland-102
Atlanta-120
Arizona Under 8
BEN BURNS
OVER Lakers/Spurs
Game: Los Angeles Lakers vs. San Antonio Spurs
Prediction: over Reason: I'm playing on the Lakers and Spurs to finish OVER the total. With the first three games all having finished below the total, few are ready to jump on the 'over' in Game 4. That's given us excellent value with the 'over' for what I expect to be by far the highest scoring game that we've seen yet. The fact that the Spurs scored 103 points in Game 3 wasn't particularly surprising. After all, they've averaged 98.7 points per game on this floor for the year and the Lakers have allowed an average of 101.6 in their road games. It was somewhat surprising that the Lakers managed only 84 though, as they normally average more than 108 per game. While it was a case of "too little, too late," it's worth mentioning that Kobe and co. finally came to life in the fourth quarter, scoring 27 points. It's also worth noting that they typically bounce back from a poor offensive performance by being involved in a high-scoring game the next time out. In fact, the OVER is 12-7 (63%) the last 19 times that the Lakers were coming off a game in which they scored 85 points or less. Looking back further finds the OVER at 57-45-6 their last 108 in that situation. Of course, the Spurs hold opponents to 85 points or less a lot more often than the Lakers get held to 85 or less. Since 2006, they've held 97 opponents to 85 or fewer points. The following game, they've seen the OVER go 53-43-1, which is slightly better than 55%. When considering that the 'under' is 119-72-6 in all other San Antonio games (not including the previously mentioned 97) have gone below the total, it shows a significant increase in games going OVER after the Spurs held an opponent to or below the 85 mark. The Spurs have scored 99 or more points in seven of their last eight games on this floor. During that eight game stretch, they've averaged 104 points. They know the importance of tonight's game and should be able to be effective on the offensive end of the floor once again. It's unlikely they'll keep the Lakers down again though. Prior to Sunday's game, the Lakers had scored 99 or more in 11 straight road games, averaging 107.7 during that stretch. Look for tonight's final combined score to be higher than expected, with the OVER improving to 6-3 on the season when the Lakers were coming off three consecutive games which had fallen below the total. *Blue Chip
LAKERS
Game: Los Angeles Lakers vs. San Antonio Spurs
Prediction: Los Angeles Lakers Reason: I'm taking the points with the LAKERS. I wasn't at all surprised that the Spurs won Game 3. After all, they were playing at home in a "must win" situation and they've still got the pride which comes which being defending champions. While they're still at home and this is still more or less a "must win" game (not exactly, but it might as well be) the Spurs will see a much different Laker team tonight. Despite Sunday's result, the Lakers remain a highly profitable 30-15-2 ATS on the road for the year. They won at Utah to eliminate the Jazz at Game 6 and they won both road games in the high altitude of Denver. That may not sound like much now. However, keep in mind that the Nuggets are very generally very tough to beat at home, going 33-8 during the regular season. Note that the Spurs were 0-2 SU/ATS there this year. The Lakers went in there and dismantled them, winning by a combined 24 points in the two games there. As for the Jazz, they had the best home record (37-4) in the entire league, so winning a Game 6 there was no small feat. The point that I am trying to emphasize is that the Lakers know how to win on the road. Note that they're 27-9 SU (21-14-1 ATS) the last 36 times they played with 'revenge,' facing an opponent which defeated them in the previous meeting. They're also 8-2-1 ATS the last 11 times they were listed as underdogs, 9-3 ATS the last dozen times they were underdogs of four or less. You've probably already been hearing a lot of talk about how the Spurs benefited from extra rest in between games vs. the Suns and Hornets. While I have a great deal of respect for the Spurs, there's actually a lot of validity to "all the talk." The Spurs are an older team that typically benefits from having extra rest in between games. While they had yesterday off, they don't have that luxury of any "extra rest." That being said, I expect the effects of the first three games and the lingering effects of the recent 7-game battle with the Hornets, to take a toll tonight and for the Lakers to be the "fresher" team. While I'll grab the points, I look for Kobe and co. to score the outright upset, seizing control of the series. *Main Event
BASEBALL
REDS
Game: Pittsburgh Pirates vs. Cincinnati Reds
Prediction: Cincinnati Reds Reason: I'm laying the price with CINCINNATI. I successfully played against the Reds in their tough extra-inning loss at San Diego on Sunday. The Reds rallied to take the lead in the top of the ninth, only to see the Padres tie things up in the home half of the inning. Ditto for the 11th inning, as teams each scored twice in that frame. San Diego would eventually win in the bottom of the 18th inning, dropping Cincinnati to an ugly 9-19 on the road. Thankfully, the Reds had yesterday off, as that was (obviously) a rather gruelling loss, both mentally and physically. Returning home, where they're a respectable 14-9 on the season, including a perfect 7-0 their last seven, I expect them to bounce back and start the new series and week off with an important win. Like their hosts, the Pirates have been much better at home than they have been on the road. They're a solid 15-9 at Pittsburgh but are mirror-opposites (9-15) on the road. Given how much better both teams have been in their home park, it's not all that surprising that the Pirates swept the Reds when the teams met at Pittsburgh earlier this season. However, it's been a different story when the teams have met at Cincinnati in recent seasons though. The Reds blanked the Pirates (4-0) the last time the teams faced each other here and are 12-7 the last 19 series meetings here. Like their teams, today's starting pitchers have both been better at home. Snell has been decent at home but is 1-2 with an ugly 5.85 ERA and 1.732 WHIP in six road starts. The Pirates are 1-3 in his four career starts at Cincinnati and he's 3-4 with a 5.18 ERA in eight starts against Cincinnati overall. Cueto has also struggled on the road. However, he's 2-1 with a solid 3.82 ERA and an excellent 0.939 WHIP at home, recording roughly a strikeout per inning. The Reds offense has been clicking. They banged out more than 20 hits in Sunday's loss and they've averaged greater than six runs per game during their winning streak here, outscoring opponents by a 43-25 count. They're expected to add another red hot bat to the lineup as outfielder Jay Bruce, considered one of the top prospects in baseball, is expected to get called up from Triple-A. The 21-year old has been pounding pitchers, while down at Louisville, batting .364 while adding some 'pop' to go with that average. While Bruce may not crack the starting lineup today, Snell knows that he'll surely have to deal with an old nemesis in Ken Griffey. That can't be a comforting thought, as Griffey is 6-for-14 (.429) with a homer and five walks in his career versus Snell. Look for Cueto, Griffey and co. to serve up some "payback" from the earlier sweep at Pittsburgh, winning their eighth straight home game for the first time in more than a decade. *"Revenge" GOM
ROYALS
Game: Minnesota Twins vs. Kansas City Royals
Prediction: Kansas City Royals Reason: I'm laying the price with KANSAS CITY. Losers of eight straight, the Royals have certainly come back to earth recently and have assumed their normal position at the bottom of the AL Central. They're still a (relatively) respectable 10-12 at home though, which is one game better than the Twins' 9-13 mark on the road. In fact, the Royals have won four straight here. Returning home, with Bannister facing a team he has dominated, I expect the Royals to break back into the win column. Bannister was dominant in defeating the Twins here six weeks ago. Bannister went the distance in that outing, allowing a mere three hits, one walk and one run. The Royals won 5-1. The Royals are now a perfect 4-0 in his four starts against the Twins, winning those games by a combined score of 23-6. Bannister was 3-0 with a highly impressive 1.45 ERA and 0.839 WHIP in those four games. He was particularly dominant the last three games, recording a superb 1.13 ERA and 0.708 WHIP. The Royals won those games by scores of 5-1, 8-1 and 5-1. Including the earlier victory vs. the Twins here, Bannister is 3-2 with a stellar 2.92 ERA and 1.019 WHIP at home on the season. Conversely, Blackburn has a 4.85 ERA and 1.483 WHIP in five road starts. The Twins were 1-4 in those games. Look for Bannister to outduel Blackburn here as the Royals snap their skid and drop the Twins to 2-11 when playing on the road with a line ranging from +100 to +125. *Annihilator
Lockline Sports
Boston
SF
Atlanta
Fla