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LARRY NESS
San Francisco Giants @ Arizona Diamondbacks
PICK: Arizona Diamondbacks
REASON FOR PICK: The D'backs owned MLB's best record on April 30 (20-8) but open tonight's three-game series with the Giants with a 30-21 mark, having gone 10-13 in May so far. The team's "June swoon" has come a month early, mostly due to the team's 2-8 road record this month. Arizona's 19-8 home mark is still the third-best home mark in the NL and the team is averaging an impressive 5.96 RPG in those 27 contests. That bodes well for tonight's starter, Dan Haren. Haren has not pitched well on the road this year, 0-3 with a 5.25 ERA in four starts (team is 0-4). However, he's 5-0 with a 2.27 ERA at home, with the D'backs going 5-1 in his starts. He'll face a tough mound opponent in Tim Lincecum, who takes a 1.07 road ERA (four starts) into tonight's contest. However, the problem for Lincecum is that the Giants are a poor road team (9-16) and are just 14-21 with this year vs right-handed starters, averaging a rather sad 3.3 RPG. Haren has to like seeing those numbers and he's won his last four decisions against the Giants, posting a 2.25 ERA. I like Lincecum but the Giants enter this series having lost eight of their last 11 overall, plus seven of their last 10 on the road. The Giants have lost won four straight road games to the D'backs and 11 of their last 13 here at Chase Field. The D'backs are already 4-1 against the Giants this season and have won 14 of the last 20 meetings, overall. Too much going for the home team here. Take Arizona.
Stephen Nover
Florida Marlins @ New York Mets
PICK: Florida Marlins
REASON FOR PICK: The Florida Marlins are huge underdogs despite having the best record in the National League.
Yes, the Marlins are playing way above their heads. But why not take the hot team (7-2 in their last nine) against a stumbling Mets squad that has no heart and a manager on tilt.
New York is 1-7 in its last eight. The Mets have a cluster injury problem in the outfield. The only reason they are this big of a favorite is because Johan Santana is on the mound.
Santana, however, has yet to pitch into the eighth inning. He has been merely good so far for the Mets, not great with a 5-3 mark and 3.36 ERA. Sananta has surrendered 10 earned runs during his past three starts in 20 1/3 innings, while allowing 29 hits.
Florida starter Andrew Miller is showing definite signs lately of living up to his vast potential. He has a 3-1 mark and 1.44 ERA during his last four starts.
Maybe Santana stops the Mets' bleeding. But at this price, I'm willing to keep fading New York and back Florida.
Wunderdog
Game: Pittsburgh at Cincinnati
Pick: Cincinnati -134
Cincinnati continues to be a no-show on the road, but have been a completely different club at home. The 9-19 mark on the road is supported by a 14-9 mark at home. That is almost 30% better in their home park. The Pirates have been just 5-12 in their last 17 road games, and the opponents have plated 31 runs in Snell's six road starts. The Reds have solved Snell to the tune of a 5.18 ERA in his career. The Reds are 8-1 in their last nine home tilts. Johny Cueto has had his problems on the road, but is 3-0 at home and the Reds get the call here.
Black Magic Sports
1 Unit on Washington Nationals +131
Washington faces a San Diego team that is hitting just .226 at home this season. San Diego is 11-26 against the money line in night games this season. San Diego is 1-8 against the money line after a game where the bullpen threw 7 or more innings over the last 2 seasons. The Padres are coming off an 18-inning game against the Cincinnati Reds and will come in a bit sluggish and with an overused bullpen to boot. Washington is 47-33 against the money line when playing against a team with a losing record over the last 2 seasons. Shawn Hill is 6-0 against the money line when playing against a team with a losing record over the last 2 seasons. Hill is one of the Nats’ best starters and will lead Washington to victory on the road Tuesday. Cash in with Washington as the underdog.
Black Widow Sports
1* on Cincinnati Reds -133
Ian Snell has not won a game for Pittsburgh since April 12th a month and a half ago. Pittsburgh is 12-32 against the money line vs. a starting pitcher with good control (less than 1.75 BB's/start) over the last 2 seasons. Johnny Cueto has solid control and will test these weak Pirates’ hitters by throwing strikes all game long. The Pirates are just 1-5 in their last 6 games following a win. The Reds have been brilliant at home as of late. The Reds are 7-0 in their last 7 home games and 7-0 in their last 7 games with the total set at 9.0-10.5 runs. The Reds have played the role of the favorite very well, going 8-1 in their last 9 games as the favored team. Take the Reds on the Money Line tonight.
EZWINNERS
MLB
2 STAR: (951) COLORADO (+$167) over Philadelphia
(Action)
(Risking $200 to win $334)
2 STAR: (957) FLORIDA (+$177) over NY Mets
(Listing Miller only)
(Risking $200 to win $354)
2 STAR: (971) TEXAS (+$136) over Tampa Bay
(Listing Padilla only)
(Risking $200 to win $272)
2 STAR: (973) MINNESOTA (+$109) over Kansas City
(Action)
(Risking $200 to win $218)
2 STAR: (963) SAN FRANCISCO (+$148) over Arizona
(Listing Lincecum only)
(Risking $200 to win $296)
2 STAR: (965) WASHINGTON (+$129) over San Diego
(Listing Hill only)
(Risking $200 to win $258)
NBA
1 STAR: (715) LA LAKERS (+4) over San Antonio
(Risking $110 to win $100)
Stan Sharp
Lakers/Spurs over 192
Lenny Del Genio's MLB Major Mismatch (1-0 TY)
Play on Chicago Cubs
Why are the Dodgers favored here? They are 0-9 this season away from Chavez Ravine when facing a team that outscores its opponents by at least 1 run/game. LA simply can't keep up with the Cubs offense the majors best especially when they are averaging just 3.9 runs per game vs. righties. Chicago has easily won both of Sean Gallagher's home starts this season and continue to roll up the profits at Wrigley, where they are now 20-7 after yesterday's win. Dodgers have lost 9 of their last 12 vs. .500 or better competition and starter Kuroda has only won once in six road outings this season. Chicago Cubs are our MLB Major Mismatch.
BRYAN LEONARD
Florida Marlins @ New York Mets
PICK: Florida Marlins
The line is simply too high considering how the Mets have been playing. We were this close to going against them again last night and we are still kicking ourselves for the omission. This line is based on reputation much more than on how the teams are currently playing. Florida enters action tonight 6 1/2 games ahead of the Mets in the standings. The reasons are simple. This young team is out there having fun while the hosts are pressing. The manager is on the hot seat regardless of what the owner said yesterday and the team of high priced players are feeling the pressure.
The huge off-season acquisition of Johan Santana has paid some dividends for the Mets. He has posted a solid 5-3 record with a 3.31 ERA. The problem with Santana is that his velocity is down and he doesn't look to be the dominant starter they had expected. He had velocity issues down the stretch last season which is why the Yankees and Red Sox dropped out of the bidding. He is still an excellent starting pitcher but don't expect his past dominance.
Florida counters with Andrew Miller who is showing signs of his vast potential. In his last three starts he has allowed just two earned runs in 19 innings with a strikeout to walk ratio of 22 to 5. He has walked just 13 batters in his last nine starts. Last year he walked 39 batters in 64 innings of work. Control issues are what was holding him back from becoming the second coming of Randy Johnson. If he has indeed harnessed his stuff he will be an elite pitcher for years to come
Florida is the much better team at this point of the season and just because you are unfamiliar with their names does not mean we can't continue to make some money off them.
PLAY FLORIDA
anyone have Sean Higgs from vegas top dogs
NBA Info-Play?
BALFE
NBA Basketball
Lakers +4 over Spurs
San Antonio played a flawless game three, but I think they may have taken their hand off the panic button which is not good. The Lakers still are a much longer and deeper team. Tonight we will see why Kobe is the best player in the NBA. Look for the Lakers to play focused and to take back control of this series.
Major League Baseball
Rangers/Rays Over 9 -120
Padilla/Sonnanstine
Terron Chapman
Texas Rangers vs. Tampa Bay Rays
Play: Texas Rangers
The Texas Rangers hope to get back in the win column this evening when they take on the Tampa Bay Rays and Andy Sonnastine in the second game of three game set between the two. We'll back the Rangers to do just that with Vicente Padilla taking the hill.
Padilla has started the season strong and has responded when called upon to the tune of a 6-2 record and 3.33 ERA. What's even more impressive is Padilla's ability to get it done on the road. Padilla is 4-1 in road games while the Rangers have gone 6-1 in road games he starts and have won in his last 6 starts overall..
He will be opposed by Andy Sonnastine who is coming off perhaps his worst outing of the year. Sonnastine was tagged for 9 hits and 7 earned runs, including 2 hr's in a 9-1 loss at Oakland. It's not a good thing to see the Rangers and their .344 avg against right handed pitchers in the last 10 games coming to the plate if your Sonnastine. The Rangers are 5th in the majors in offense and 3rd in home runs.
At first glance it's hard to fade the Rays right now. They are no longer sneaking up on opponents and bettors alike and have the attention of the mainstream. But the Rangers are still flying below people's radar and this line reflects so. The Rangers are still 16-9 in the month of May and have been playing some of the best baseball in the majors. The Rangers are 8-2 in Padilla's last 10 road starts as a pup of +110 to +150. They are also 7-1 in their last 8 games vs. a right handed starter. Play on the Texas Rangers for 1 unit.
anyone have Sean Higgs from vegas top dogs
NBA Info-Play?
If I see it I will post it
John Ryan
New York Yankees vs. Baltimore Orioles
Play: Baltimore Orioles
Ai Simulator 3* graded play on Baltimore – Baltimore bats will not keep hitting at the low level they have been over the past 7 days based on the AiS projections. Orioles’ bullpen is very strong posting an 2.18 ERA and a 1.646 WHIP. Supporting this graded play is a system that has gone 46-24 and have made 34.6 units since 2002. Play on home dogs with a money line of +100 or higher with a starting pitcher whose gives up 0.5 or less HR's/start, playing on Tuesday. The average play for this system has been +127.4 Here is a second system that has gone 33-14 and has made 19.3 units since 2002. Play on any AL team that is a poor hitting team batting =6.00, WHIP>=1.700 in May games. Ian Kennedy has not pitched well this season posting a 7.27 ERA and a 1.787 WHIP and is winless in 8 starts (0-3). Baltimore starter Burres has been a strong and consistent starter this season posting a 3.16 ERA and a 1.263 WHIP on the season and also has posted a 3.10 ERA and a 1.131 WHIP over the past 3 starts. He is 2-2 when starting against NYY with an ERA of 3.00 and a WHIP of 1.367. NYY in a poor role noting they are just 19-25 (-14.4 Units) against the money line in road games vs. poor power teams that are averaging 0.9 or less HR's/game over the last 2 seasons. Take Baltimore