TUESDAY SERVICE PLAYS

SPORTS ADVISORS

AMERICAN LEAGUE

Toronto (31-28) at N.Y. Yankees (28-29)

Joba Chamberlain (1-2, 2.28 ERA) makes his much-anticipated first major-league start when he leads the Yankees against Roy Halladay (6-5, 2.93) and the Blue Jays in the opener of a three-game series in the Bronx.

New York capped a six-game road trip with Monday’s 6-5 loss at Minnesota, once again dropping the Pinstripers below .500. The Yankees have followed up an 8-1 run with consecutive losses. Also, even though Joe Girardi’s club has won five straight at home, it is still just 14-12 at Yankee Stadium this season.

Toronto took Monday off after suffering consecutive tough one-run losses to the Angels in Anaheim on Saturday (3-2) and Sunday (4-3). Prior to those two defeats, the Jays had been on an 8-1 run, and they’re still 14-6 in their last 20, including 9-4 on the highway. They’re also 7-2 in their last nine against right-handed starters, but 2-7 in their last nine divisional contests and 4-11 in their last 15 series openers.

These teams opened the season against one another in the Bronx, with New York winning two games by identical 3-2 scores, sandwiched around a 5-2 Toronto win.

Chamberlain, who will reportedly be limited to 45 pitches tonight, makes the move from set-up man in the bullpen to the rotation. In 23 2/3 relief innings this season, the hard-throwing right-hander gave up six runs (all earned) on 16 hits, walking 11 and striking out 30. He’s 1-1 with a 3.00 ERA in nine appearances at home.

Since being called up to the big leagues last season, Chamberlain has appeared in six games against the Blue Jays, yielding just one unearned run, three hits and five walks in nine innings, striking out 14.

Halladay is 3-0 with a 2.28 ERA in his last three outings, with the last two being gems: a complete-game four-hit, no-walk effort in a 7-1 home win over the Royals on May 23 and an eight-inning, one-run, eight-hit performance in a 2-1 victory at Oakland on Wednesday. Halladay, who has earned a decision in each of his 11 starts, has allowed exactly one run in five of his starts. However, he’s only 3-4 with a 3.07 ERA in seven starts on the road.

Halladay took the ball for Toronto in New York on Opening Night, giving up three runs on seven hits in a 3-2 loss. Prior to that, the Jays had gone 7-1 in the veteran right-hander’s previous eight starts against the Yankees. In his career, Halladay is 10-5 with a 3.03 ERA in 27 games (25 starts) versus the Bronx Bombers, including 5-4 with a 3.00 ERA in 16 appearances (14 starts) at Yankee Stadium.

With Halladay on the hill, the under is on streaks of 7-2 overall, 6-1 on the road, 6-0 on grass, 19-7 on Tuesdays, 16-5 as an underdog, 8-3 when he faces New York and 5-1 when he pitches in Yankee Stadium.

The under is 29-12-1 in Toronto’s last 42 games overall, 13-5 in their last 18 on grass and 45-21-3 in their last 69 on the highway. For New York, the under is on streaks of 11-3 against right-handed starters and 20-7 versus the A.L. East, but the over is 3-1 in its last four overall and 6-2 in the last eight at Yankee Stadium. Finally, the under is 4-0 in the last four head-to-head clashes and 25-10-2 in the past 37 meetings at the Stadium.

ATS ADVANTAGE: UNDER

Tampa Bay (35-22) at Boston (35-25)

The top two teams in the American League East kick off a three-game series at Fenway Park, with both sending young right-handers to the mound as Tampa Bay’s Matt Garza (4-1, 3.78) opposes Boston rookie Justin Masterson (1-0, 1.46).

The Red Sox return home following a 10-game road trip that began with five losses in six games at Oakland and Seattle. They then went to Baltimore over the weekend and won three of four, the lone setback coming in Monday’s 6-3 loss. Boston owns the best home record at 21-5, and the last time it was in Fenway, it swept a seven-game homestand. In fact, the Sox have won 10 straight at home going back to a three-game sweep of the Rays from May 2-4.

Tampa Bay was idle Monday after taking three of four games at home against the White Sox, losing the series opener then winning the next three by a combined tally of 8-4. The surprising Rays are on an 18-6 run, but much of that damage has come at home. On the highway, the Rays are just 14-19 this year and 43-97 in their last 140 road contests dating to 2006.

The host has won all six meetings between these division rivals this year, with the Rays getting outscored 26-10 in their three-game series at Fenway a month ago. Boston has absolutely owned Tampa, winning 95 of the last 138 meetings, going an astounding 42-9 in the last 51 battles at Fenway Park.

Garza has given up two earned runs or fewer while pitching at least six innings in five of his last six starts. In his last two trips to the hill (both at home), the right-hander beat the Orioles 2-0 (7 1/3 scoreless innings) and the Rangers 5-3 (two runs allowed in eight innings with a season-high 10 strikeouts).

Garza’s struggles in 2008 have come away from Tropicana Field, where he is 1-1 with a 5.64 ERA in four starts, with the Rays losing his two no-decisions as well. But in three career starts against Boston, Garza is 2-0 with a 3.45 ERA. The two wins came at Fenway Park in 2006 and 2007, with the one no-decision occurring at home on April 25. In the latter contest, Garza gave up three runs on five hits in five innings, with the Rays eventually winning, 5-4.

Masterson is making his third trip to the big leagues this season. He was outstanding his first two career major-league starts (both at Fenway), holding the Angels to one run on two hits in six innings and Kansas City to a single run on three hits in 6 1/3 innings. He got a no-decision in his team’s 7-5 loss to the Angels, while he defeated the Royals 2-1. The big right-hander has actually allowed more walks (seven) than hits (five), while he’s struck out nine in 12 1/3 innings.

The under is 6-1 in Garza’s last seven starts overall, 2-1 in his two road outings, 2-0-1 in his three career starts versus Boston and 5-0 in his last five against the A.L. East.

The Rays have stayed under the total in five straight games. However, the over is 8-3-1 in their last 12 on the road. For Boston, the under is on streaks of 4-1-2 overall, 5-1-3 vs. the A.L. East and 20-8-2 on Tuesdays. Finally, the over is 4-1 in the last five series meetings at Fenway Park (3-0 this year).

ATS ADVANTAGE: BOSTON

Vernon Croy

Cincinnati Reds vs. Philadelphia Phillies
Play: Over

1 Unit, Take the Over, Both of these pitchers have struggled this season and Aaron Harang (2-7, 3.81 ERA) has struggled over his last 3 starts with an ERA of 6.61 while lasting just 5.4 innings per start. Harang has struggled against the Phillies in the past with an ERA of 6.62 over 6 career starts against them. The Phillies are hitting .300 as a team while averaging 10 rpg over their last 7 games and the Reds are hitting .283 as a team over their last 7 games while averaging 6.6 rpg. The Reds opponents are hitting .291 against them on the road this season while averaging 5.6 rpg and the Reds bullpen has struggled on the road with an ERA of 5.32 over 94.7 innings pitched. The O/U is 21-6 for the Reds in their last 27 road games when the posted total is 10 to 10.5 and the O/U is 1-6 for the Reds in their last 7 games at Philadelphia. Take the Over as my MLB Free Play for Tuesday night and make sure you get on my MLB Dog of the Week as my 25-14 MLB run continues.

Matt Fargo

Cincinnati Reds vs. Philadelphia Phillies
Play: Cincinnati Reds

The Reds lost a tough one last night in the opener of this series which snapped a three-game winning streak. Cincinnati has won seven of 10 games so the one setback is no cause for concern, especially one coming by a single run. Going back further, the Reds are 13-7 in their last 20 games and have been able to once again flirt with the .500 mark. The offense has been on a role, averaging 6.0 rpg over the last 10 games and the pitching has been solid as well with a 3.51 ERA over that span.

For the Phillies, the win was its second straight and seventh in their last eight games. The offense has cooled off considerably, averaging 5.0 rpg over the last three games after putting up an average of 12 rpg in its previous five games. Last night was the first game in the last four that the bats have produced an average higher than .207. Pitching has been very solid throughout the season but over the last 10 games, the starters have posted a 5.54 ERA and I expect more problems tonight.

One play against rule of mine is to go against lower tiered pitchers coming off consecutive quality starts. Along the same lines is to play on a top tiered pitcher coming off two bad outings and Aaron Harang falls into that category. He is coming off back-to-back blowups including his last outing which was his worst of the season. In the middle of those games was a four-inning relief appearance in which he allowed no runs. He has been a hard luck pitcher, getting just 2.8 rpg of support in five road starts.

Adam Eaton is part of the first situation mentioned as he is coming off back-to-back quality starts. Eaton is far from a top-tiered pitcher as his ERA of 4.99 clearly proves that. Prior to the two quality outings, he had a 5.59 ERA through nine outings which follows an ERA of 6.29 last season and 5.12 two years ago. It took 11 starts for Eaton to notch his first victory showing how inconsistent of a season it has been. The Phillies are 1-4 in Eaton’s last five starts. Play Cincinnati Reds 1.5 Units

James Patrick

Tigers vs. A’s

A’s starter Everland is Under the TOTAL in 8-2-1 of his past 11 starts and 4 of his past 5 home starts. Add to the fact that Oakland is Under in their last 5 Tuesday games and our Major League Baseball selection is #927 Tigers-A’s UNDER the TOTAL.

Scott Spreitzer

Game: Tampa Bay Rays at Boston Red Sox
Prediction: Boston Red Sox

Reason: I'm laying the price with the Red Sox and Masterson over Garza. Yes, I do know David Ortiz will be sidelined for a while. But Justin Masterson has been fantastic through his first two outings and I expect more of the same tonight. The 23-year old righthander has allowed just two earned runs and 12 base runners in his first two starts, lasting 6 and 6 1/3 innings. That adds up to a red-hot 1.46 ERA, 0.97 WHIP, and a .128 BAA! Meanwhile, Matt Garza has had his clock cleaned away from home. He's made four trips to the visiting mound and has been smacked around for a 5.64 ERA and .281 BAA! His four hosts have averaged almost 7 runs per game in those outings. Even without Ortiz, I expect more of the same from the home standing Red Sox. Boston is 21-5 at Fenway this season and will be even more focused with one of their leaders sidelined. I'll lay the price with Boston on Tuesday.

Lee Kostroski

New York Mets @ San Francisco Giants
PICK: San Francisco Giants

Barry Zito owns incredibly bad numbers on the season but each of his last five starts have been decent. Zito has not allowed more than three runs in any of those outings and the Giants have won his last two starts. Zito was 2-0 against the Mets last season and the Giants are 7-4 in the last eleven games overall as there has been improvement in many areas. Despite the Mets featuring a significantly superior record, New York has been a worse wagering team on the season and there is again good value going against the Mets in this match-up tonight.

Pedro Martinez is no longer even a question mark for New York. He has not been able to stay healthy, and he has not pitched well when he is able to pitch. Martinez still commands a high price as a former great but the Giants are capable of hitting him hard in his first start back in action. Martinez has not been consistently effective since 2005 yet he will pitch as a modest road favorite tonight despite taking the mound only once this season, and struggling considerably in that outing.

The Mets are in a tough travel position, going clear across the country following big series against Los Angeles. The Mets are 7-13 in the last 20 road games and it will be tough to win in this environment. San Francisco is putting together good offensive numbers lately, averaging over five runs per game and this is great value on a pitcher that has bottomed out and is now starting to pitch well again. Look for the Giants to get to Martinez early and this could be a long night for an inconsistent middle relief crew for New York.

Stephen Nover

Toronto Blue Jays @ New York Yankees
PICK: Toronto Blue Jays

REASON FOR PICK: Joba Chamberlain is an outstanding setup man. But as a starting pitcher, he's totally untested. Yet the oddsmaker has priced him like he's an established ace. He isn't. But Toronto's Roy Halladay is.

Halladay is in good form, too, giving up three earned runs during his last three appearances spanning 19 1/3 innings. He has a 16-to-1 strikeout-to-walk ratio in this time frame.

Halladay has been a Yankee killer, too. Toronto is 8-3 versus New York during Halladay's past 11 starts against the Yankees. Halladay has a lifetime 3.03 ERA versus New York.

Chamberlain will be lucky to last five innings because he'll be on a 65-75 pitch count. Moving Chamberlain into the starting rotation weakens New York's bullpen. The main setup man is now Kyle Farnsworth. That's not good if you're the Yankees.

The Blue Jays are rested, having been idle on Monday while the Yankees were losing a tough 6-5 road game to Minnesota courtesy of Farnsworth. Toronto has won eight of its last 11 games.

This is New York's first home game following a seven-game road trip. So the Yankees may not have their full concentration yet, especially with all the New York media hype surrounding Chamberlain's first major league start.

Marc Lawrence

Cincinnati Reds @ Philadelphia Phillies
PICK: Cincinnati Reds

REASON FOR PICK: Play On: Cincinnati w/Harang.
Note: The Reds take on the Phillies in Game Two of this four game series in Philadelphia Tuesday night behind the steady serves of Aaron Harang. And steady he is, having won 11 of his last 16 road starts in June and each of his last three starts in this park.

With Harang off a loss and in great KW form with 3 walks and 15 strikeouts in his last three starts, look for the Reds to come up big here tonight.

We recommend a 1-unit play on Cincinnati with Harang.

Terron Chapman

Toronto Blue Jays vs. New York Yankees
Play: Toronto Blue Jays

The Toronto Blue Jays will look to ruin Joba Chamberlain's debut as a starting pitcher tonight in the Bronx with their ace on the mound, and we'll back them to do so.

Roy "Doc" Halladay will toe the rubber for the boys above the border and he is 10-5 in his career against the Yanks going 7-2 in his last 9 starts against the pinstripes. Doc struggled some early in the season on his way to a 6-5 record. But has since found his form and is back to making house calls. His ERA of 2.93 and whip of 0.99 are impressive but so are his 11 walks allowed on the season, second only to Cliff Lee at 10. His record doesn't indicate how dominant he has been at times. He has three complete games on the season and has won his last 3 starts with two of the wins coming on the road.

The Blue Jays, who have won 8 of their last 11 return east to continue their road trip after a six game tour out west. The Jays earned a split on the left coast taking two of three from the A's and dropping two to the Angels, each by one run. They lost two of three in the Bronx to begin the season losing by one run in each of the losses. It was a competitive series between these division rivals and we can expect the same in this one.

All the hype that has surrounded Joba Chamberlain will finally be put to the test. The charade of whether to start him or not is over and we will finally see what this kid can do when hitters see him more than once in a game. Chamberlain has been spectacular in his appearances with a 2.28 ERA in 23 2/3 innings pitched. It will be a different setting however at home under the lights in Yankee stadium starting as opposed to coming out of the bullpen. Chamberlain's absence in the bullpen was evident as the Yankees blew the lead in the eighth inning last night to the Twins 6-5. That could be an issue again if the Jays can get to Joba early and dig deep into that Yankee bullpen that has allowed 24 homers on the season, 3rd most in the majors. Play on the Toronto Blue Jays for 1 unit.

Tom Stryker

Cincinnati Reds vs. Philadelphia Phillies
Play: Cincinnati Reds

Philadelphia carried the freight for me last night and won as my Backyard Blowout of the Month. The Phillies have been hitting the ball and playing extremely well. Unfortunately, this number suggests that Cincinnati is probably the right side.

Toeing the rubber for the Reds tonight will be right-hander Aaron Harang. With a 2-7 overall record, one has to wondered how Harang can actually be favored (-101) in some spots in this situation. But, a closer look at No. 39's numbers explains why.

In 82.2 innings of work this season, the former San Diego State Aztec has been touched for only 35 earned runs and 85 hits in 82.2 innings of work. That breaks down to a respectable 3.81 ERA. Aaron's strikeout-to-walk ratio of 74-19 is equally impressive!

Harang has been a money-maker in this situation as well. In his last nine starts against the National League East, Aaron has posted eight victories. In addition, when taking the mound with four or more days rest, No. 39 has cruised to victory in 24 of his last 35 appearances.

Philadelphia's weakest link on the mound this season could be righty Adam Eaton. In 61.1 innings of work, Eaton has been tagged for 34 earned runs, 25 walks and 64 hits. That adds up to a lofty 4.99 ERA. Adam's work under the lights this year hasn't been very good either. With the moon out, Eaton has been blasted for 29 earned runs and 53 hits in 48.2 frames. That equates to a dismal 5.36 ERA!

The Phillies have dropped four or Eaton's last five starts and cashed just two or their last 10 in game two of a series. Don't be surprised when the improving Reds swipe this one. Take Cincinnati with listed pitcher Harang.

Ross Benjamin

Cubs (Marquis) @ San Diego (Ledezma)

Pick: Cubs –130

The Cubs are hitting a sizzling .303 as a team versus left-handed pitching this season. That is not good news for southpaw Padre starter Will Ledezma who enters the game in bad form off of his last 3 starts allowing 3 home runs in just 12.0 innings while posting a 7.50 ERA and 1.58 Whip. The Cubs starter Jason Marquis enters the game in good form off of his last 3 starts. The Padres are 12-28 so far this season in night games. Going into Monday night the Cubs had won 7 in a row and hitting a sizzling .299 as a team over their last 10 games. Play on the Chicago Cubs as my free selection of the night.

Dave Cokin

TOR Blue Jays and NY Yankees
Take TOR Blue Jays

It's the eagerly anticipated starting debut for Joba Chamberlain as the Yankees host the Blue Jays and Roy Halladay. Chamberlain is absolutely the goods. He projects as a top flight potential staff ace and I suspect he'll be strong in this role from the outset. But for now Joba is on a limited pitch count. Look for a ceiling of 70 pitches here, which means the Yankees pen will almost surely be involved by the fifth inning. The home team is also running into a hot opponent as the Jays have been playing well and Halladay has been very impressive. There will be plenty of opportunities to back Chamberlain later, but I'm against him here with a call on Halladay and the Jays.

Jim Feist

NY Mets and SF Giants
Take SF Giants

The Giants continue to play decent baseball, on a 7-4 run despite being an underdog in 7 of those 11 games. They won 3 in a row at Arizona as a dog each time. The Mets are a long way from home and go with fragile Pedro Martinez, a big name pitcher who has battled injuries the last 3 seasons. This is his first start of 2008 and you never know what you're going to get out of a starter off the DL. Giants lefty Barry Zito has turned things around after a disastrous start with a 3.12 ERA his last 3 starts. In his career he's 2-0 with a 2.08 ERA against the Mets. Play the Giants!

Scott Spreitzer's 25* MLB **BAILOUT BLOWOUT!** (Swept on Monday!)

I'm laying the price with the Mariners on Tuesday night. I cashed with the Angels on these pages last night, but I believe the lack of hitting is going to catch up to the Halos tonight. Mike Scioscia's squad has scored no more than four runs in any of their last 13 games. Yet, the AL West leaders are 9-4 in those games, thanks to outstanding pitching. But tonight, I wouldn't be surprised if they get shutout or score just one run. That's because the struggling lineup is facing one of the hottest home pitchers in the league in Erik Bedard. The former Oriole had his troubles in SAFECO as a visitor, but has mastered the venue as a Mariner. In five home starts, the lefty has allowed a grand total of five earned runs and just 31 base runners in 33 2/3 innings of work. That's a sizzling hot 1.34 ERA and 0.92 WHIP, to go along with a .158 BAA! None of Bedard's five opponents have topped two earned runs against him in this park, and he's coming off seven innings of shutout work against the Red Sox, allowing just two hits and three walks with eight strikeouts. Besides the fact that the Angels are in a current offensive slump, they're averaging just 3.3 runs per game on the season in road night games against southpaws. The local media has been calling for John McLaren's head on a silver platter. They'll back off a bit tonight following a home win by the Mariners. Seattle is 4-1 with Bedard toeing the home rubber and I'll back the home squad tonight. Seattle is my Tuesday night Bailout.