JEFFERSONSPORTS
MLB MONDAY
CHICAGO WHITE SOX-122
TEXAS+104
CHICAGO CUBS-160
Adding
NBA
Lakers-9.5
WNBA
Minnesota-3.5
Minnesota Under 162
Larry Ness' 15* Team Mismatch of the Week (off 4-1 week / now 35-22 with GOW plays in '08!)
My 15* play is on the Chi White Sox at 7:05 ET. Will Nate Robertson of the Tigers ever live up to his supposed potential? Whether or not the Tigers have given up yet or not I don't know? However, I sure have little reason to believe this guy will ever be a quality pitcher in the majors. He's 3-6 with a 6.03 ERA in 12 starts this year, giving him a career mark of 45-61 with a 4.72 ERA. Since becoming a regular part of the Tigers rotation in '04, Detroit is a rather sad 59-82 (that's a winning percentage of only .418!) in his 141 starts (includes the '08 season). Starting against the lefty is Jose Contreras, who was a huge part of Chicago's success when the team won the World Series in 2005, as he went 15-7 with a 3.61 ERA that year. He wasn't bad in 07 either, going 13-9 with a 4.27 ERA but collapsed (as did the entire team) in '07, with a 10-17 mark (5.57 ERA), as Chicago went 11-19 in his 30 starts. Contreras has been excellent in '08 though, entering this game 6-3 with a 2.76 ERA. Contreras has been quoted as saying that "last year is a distant memory" and no wonder, he's 4-0 with a 1.50 ERA in his last six starts. Now this selection is based on much more than the teams' two starting pitchers, as the Tigers have been one of this year's biggest flops, while the White Sox have been one of the year's biggest surprises. Detroit was expected to among the best teams in all of baseball after a number of "high-profile" off-season moves but in fact, just the opposite has been true. Detroit enters this game with a 26-37 record, only 1 1/2-games ahead of the last-place Royals in the AL Central and just 3 1/2-games better than the 23-41 Mariners, who own MLB's worst record. Meanwhile, the White Sox, coming off a 90-loss season, enter with MLB's longest active winning streak (seven in a row), giving them a 37-26 mark, which is good enough for a 6 1/2-game lead over the Twins in the AL Central. The White Sox are 5-1 vs the Tigers this year, as they have dominated their own division, going 21-8 vs Central foes. Meanwhile, the Tigers have struggled against all division opponents this year (not just the Sox), going 7-19 in division play. Let's also note that the Tigers are a DREADFUL 17-32 (minus-$2,155) vs right-handers this year, while the White Sox are a solid 11-7 vs lefties, including a 6-3 mark on the road. All edges point to the White Sox in this matchup. Team Mismatch of the Week 15* Chi White Sox.
Larry Ness' Terrific Tuesday Total-MLB (3-1 L4 totals in all sports!)
My Terrific Tuesday Total is on Phi/Fla Over at 7:10 ET. The Phillies led the NL in runs scored last year (892), an average of 5.51 per game. They enter this series against the Marlins on a 12-2 run in which they've averaged 7.07 RPG, leaving them behind only the Cubs in runs scored among NL teams this year (344 / 5.29 per). The Phillies are one of just three teams in MLB to own a winning road record (Phils' 18-13 mark is 2nd-best to the Angels' 21-12 mark) and their 93 HRs are the second-most of any team in the majors. Which team has more HRs? You guessed it, the Florida Marlins. The Marlins have hit 95 HRs and after a 71-91 year in '07, enter this game a somewhat surprising 34-29. What is not a surprise though, is the fact that the Marlins are MLB's best 'over' team, with a mark of 39-20. That's in keeping with the fact that in '07, no team played more overs than the Marlins, who had 90! The pitching matchip of Brett Myers vs Ricky Nolasco shouldn't scare us off playing this game over, either. Myers went 50-35 from '03-'06 as a starter but LY became the team's closer, going 5-7 with a 4.33 ERA (saved 21 of 24 chances). His transition back into the starting rotation has not gone smoothly this year, as he enters this game with a 5.13 ERA in 13 starts. Nolasco entered his last start (Thursday in Atlanta) on a nice roll, having gone 4-0 with a 2.76 ERA in his previous five starts. However, he lasted just 5.2 innings, allowing 12 hits and seven ERs, the FOURTH time in 11 starts this year he has allowed at least six runs in a game. Let's not forget that his ERA on the season (in 13 appearances, including 11 starts) is 5.05 ERA. These two teams have played three games so far this year, with all three going over. Why should it be any different tonight? It won't! This game should get to double-digits by the sixth inning. Terrific Tuesday Total on Phi/Fla Over.
Larry Ness' Las Vegas Insider-MLB (11-2 since May 26!)
My Las Vegas Insider is on the LA Angels ay 10:05 ET. Last night's 13-4 win by the Rays in Anaheim is more evidence that the Rays' past history is just that. Tampa had entered last night's game having lost 13 of its previous 16 meetings with the Angels, including eight straight in Anaheim, where the team had been outscored 54-20. The win was only the SIXTH for the Rays in their last 35 games in Anaheim but now makes them 4-0 vs the Angels in '08 (won all three earlier this year in Tampa). So again, the Rays' past failures are irrelevant. So why am I going against the Rays again tonight, after losing a big play against them last night? The main reason centers around CURRENT not PAST form. James Shields gives Tampa an excellent one-two pitching combo when teamed with Scott Kazmir but so far, Shields is proving to be a "one-trick pony." He can dominate at home, where the team is 6-1 in his seven starts this year, as Shields has posted a 1.72 ERA. However, his ERA balloons to 7.06 on the road (six starts), with the team at 2-4. Look closer and those numbers are even worse. He began the season making his first two starts away from home and allowed just two ERs in each start (3.00 ERA). However, over his last four starts, he's allowed 24 hits and 19 ERs in just 17.1 innings of work (lasted past the fifth inning just ONCE!), for an ERA of 9.87! Now as myself and anyone following the game this year has already documented, the Angels are not hitting the ball with the same authority as last year, especially against right-handers (an understatement if I've ever heard one). That being said, Shields is just "not getting the job done" away from Tropicana Field. As for the Angels, they'll send Jered Weaver to the mound. I've pointed out a number of times before (playing on and against the Angels) that Weaver has not lived up to the numbers he posted as a rookie. The facts are the facts, as he was 11-2 with a 2.56 in '06, went 13-7 with a 3.91 ERA last year and has opened '08 by going 5-6 with a 4.79 ERA. However, the Angels did go 16-7 in his home starts the last two seasons (ERA of right around 3.50) and in six starts this year, his home ERA is a solid 3.47. The Rays got 13 runs on 18 hits (four HRs) last night and one has to believe they'll be very hard-pressed to come anywhere close to that here. Expect Weaver to give the Angels a solid outing and for those Angel bats to top the five-run mark for the first time since May 18. Las Vegas Insider on the LA Angels.
Bob Akmens
MLB 4* Nationals/Pirates Under 8.5
MLB 4* Chicago Cubs (Lilly vs Glavine)
NBA 3* Celtics/Lakers Under 195.5
Michael Cannon
20 Dime –
CELTICS
Take the points with the Celtics tonight in Game 3 against the Lakers.
The Lakers are going to win this game, but I have serious reservations about laying this kind of number with them.
Boston showed me that they could not only hang with the Lakers, but force the tempo as well.
Tonight’s game is going to be difficult for the Celtics because of the travel factor and playing on a hostile court, but they should be buoyed by the fact that they came by their 2-0 series lead honestly.
Kevin Garnett should be able to continue his advantage over Pau Gasol, both offensively and defensively. The Big Ticket is a big reason why Boston won the first two games of this series.
Boston is on ATS runs of 7-1 against the West, including 4-0 in the last four, 4-0 against the Pacific Division, 22-9 as an underdog, 42-18 as a road dog and 23-11 following a SU win.
The Lakers are 0-6-1 ATS in their last seven NBA Finals games and 0-5 ATS in their last five against the East.
Take the points with the Celtics as they stay within the number.
10 Dime –
WHITE SOX (With Contreras as listed pitcher)
Take the White Sox for the road win tonight over the Tigers.
Jose Contreras will start for the ChiSox and he’s been solid all season long. The right-hander is 6-3 with a 2.76 ERA in 12 games, including a 1-0 mark with a 1.64 ERA over his last three.
The Tigers, particularly Nate Robertson, just can’t seem to get it together this year. Robertson is 3-6 with a 6.03 ERA on the season.
The way Contreras is going this year I just don’t see Robertson outpitching him.
Take the White Sox as they grab the road win.
Psychic
WISEGUY Boston +9.5
Mike Neri
3* LA Lakers
The Hoops Guru Guaranteed Selections
TRIPLE PLAY NBA PLAYOFF WINNER
LA LAKERS -9.5
2-Minute Warning
LOS ANGELES LAKERS