SPORTS ADVISORS
NBA FINALS
(1) L.A. Lakers (14-6, 10-9-1 ATS) at (1) Boston (15-10, 13-12 ATS)
The Lakers, who kept their season alive with a close home victory in Game 5, now go back to the TD Banknorth Garden for another elimination game against the Celtics, who will get their second chance to secure their 17th NBA title.
Los Angeles held on for a 103-98 home victory Sunday night, but again failed to cover, this time as a 7½-point chalk. Boston’s Big Three of Paul Pierce, Kevin Garnett and Ray Allen combined for 67 points – with Pierce going off for 38 – but no other Celtic reached double figures, while the Lakers had five players in double figures, led by Kobe Bryant’s 25 points.
Los Angeles, which blew a 24-point lead in losing Game 4, was up by 19 in the second quarter before again allowing Boston to claw its way back into the game. The Celtics trailed by just three at halftime and actually took the lead in the fourth quarter.
Boston, which was 8-12 ATS in the playoffs entering this series, has cashed in every game against the Lakers and is on a 6-0 ATS run overall. Meanwhile, L.A. is just 3-7 ATS in its last 10.
The Celtics are now 5-2 SU and 7-0 ATS against the Lakers this season; prior to this stretch, the Lakers were on a 7-1 ATS run in this storied rivalry. Finally, the underdog is on a 4-0 spread-covering streak in this playoff series.
Despite their recent woes, the Lakers are 21-9-1 ATS in their last 30 road games and carry additional positive ATS streaks of 10-3 as an underdog of less than five points, 13-4-2 as a road pup, 9-3-1 overall when catching points and 11-4-1 after a SU win. On the downside, L.A. is 0-9-1 ATS in its last 10 NBA Finals games, 0-6 ATS in its last six against the Atlantic Division, and 0-8 ATS in its last eight against the Eastern Conference.
The Celtics are on a 7-2 ATS run and sport further pointspread streaks of 7-0 against the Pacific Division, 14-2 against the Western Conference, 14-5 at the Garden and 27-11-1 following a spread-cover. The C’s lone negative: a paltry 3-12 ATS mark in their last 15 as a home chalk of less than five points.
The “under” trends run deep for Los Angeles, including 8-2 overall, 6-0 on one day of rest, 7-1 as an underdog (5-1 as a playoff pup), 7-3 on the highway and 39-19 coming off a SU win. Likewise, for Boston, the under is on streaks of 5-0 after allowing 100 or more points, 5-1 on one day of rest and 5-1 as a playoff chalk of less than five points, but the over is 5-2 in the Celtics’ last seven on the parquet floor.
Finally, Game 5 sailed over the posted price of 192, but the under is still 3-2 in the Finals (1-1 in Boston).
ATS ADVANTAGE: UNDER
INTERLEAGUE
Boston (44-29) at Philadelphia (42-30)
Two southpaws are set to square off at Citizens Bank Park, as Jon Lester (5-3, 3.43 ERA) toes the slab for the Red Sox against Jamie Moyer (7-3, 4.12) and the Phillies in the second game of a three-game series.
Philadelphia pounded out an 8-2 victory on Monday to halt a modest two game losing skid while improving to 22-13 at Citizens Bank this year, including 9-2 in the last 11. The Phillies are on a 15-6 run overall and they’re 20-6 in their last 26 Tuesday games, but they’re only 6-12 in their last 18 against American League East foes.
Despite Monday’s defeat, Boston continues to sport impressive hot streaks of 12-5 overall, 46-11 in interleague play, 21-7 in interleague road games and 24-5 against the N.L. East. Also, the Sox are 10-3 in their last 13 meetings with the Phillies, including 5-2 at Citizens Bank.
Lester, who has a no-hitter to his credit this season, is 3-1 with a no-decision in his last five starts, having won the last two. On Thursday against Baltimore, he allowed two runs on seven hits in seven innings in a 9-2 home rout. He’s gone at least six innings and allowed two earned runs or fewer in six of his last nine outings, with Boston going 6-3 during that stretch. Going back further, the Red Sox are on a 20-8 run when Lester starts and they’re 5-0 in his last five interleague outings.
Lester, who is set to make his first career start against Philadelphia, is 1-2 with a 4.71 ERA in seven road starts this year, and the Red Sox have lost three of his last four road starts, with Lester going 0-1 with three no-decisions.
The ageless Moyer has been red-hot for the past month, going 5-0 with a no-decision, and the Phils won all six games. On Thursday at Florida, he threw eight shutout innings, allowing two hits and just one walk in a 3-0 victory. He has a 2.70 ERA in the last six games, yielding just 12 runs in 40 innings.
Moyer is 3-2 with a rather high 5.53 ERA in seven home starts this season, though the Phils are 16-4 in his last 20 games as a home chalk. He’s also only 6-11 with a 6.69 ERA in 22 career appearances (20 starts) against Boston, having spent 16 years in the American League – including part of one with the Sox.
The under is 13-6-2 in Lester’s last 21 starts overall, but the over is 6-2 in Moyer’s last eight overall and 5-0 in his last five as a home chalk.
Last night’s game barely hurdled the posted total, making the over is 10-4 in the last 14 series meetings between these teams, including 5-1 in the last six clashes. That said, for Boston, the under is on runs of 29-10-2 as an interleague pup, 17-6-2 in the second game of a series and 5-2-1 against left-handers. The under is also on streaks for Philly of 11-3 overall and 4-1 at home.
ATS ADVANTAGE: PHILADELPHIA
Chicago Cubs (45-25) at Tampa Bay (40-29)
The Cubs will send right-hander Ryan Dempster (8-2, 2.81 ERA) to the hill to open a three-game interleague series against the Rays, who will counter with ace lefty Scott Kazmir (6-2, 1.74) at Tropicana Field.
Chicago was idle on Monday after winning two of three in a weekend interleague series at Toronto, dropping the opener but winning the next two, including Sunday’s 7-4 victory. The Cubs have won six of their last seven games, but they remain below .500 on the highway at 16-17. Also, despite the success in Toronto, Lou Pineilla’s club is still just 4-11 in its last 15 interleague road contests versus winning teams.
Tampa Bay took two of three in an interleague home series against Miami over the weekend, winning the first two games before getting blown out 9-3 on Sunday. The Rays have followed an 8-2 streak by going just 5-7 in their last 12. However, they’re 22-4 in their last 26 home games, including 5-1 in the last six, and 20-6 in their last 26 as a home chalk. One negative: Tampa’s ongoing 6-21 slide against the N.L. Central.
The Cubs are 6-1 in Dempster’s last seven outings, with the right-hander going 4-1 with two no-decisions. On Wednesday against Atlanta, he went the distance, giving up two runs on just four hits in a 7-2 home rout. Dempster has thrown at least six innings in 11 of his 14 starts this year.
Both of Dempster’s losses have come away from Wrigley Field, where he’s 0-2 despite a 2.59 ERA in five starts. Also, he’s 3-4 with a 4.50 ERA in seven career starts against Tampa.
Kazmir had won six straight decisions while posting a 0.88 ERA, before being dealt his second loss of the year last Wednesday. In that contest at the Los Angeles Angels, he gave up three runs on six hits in 6 2/3 innings, falling 4-2.
Kazmir is 4-0 with a minuscule 0.35 ERA at Tropicana this season, giving up just one run in 26 innings. Tuesday’s outing will mark his first against the Cubs.
The under is 5-1 in Dempster’s last six starts, 6-2 in his last eight on the road, 8-1-1 in Kazmir’s last 10 on field turf and 4-1 in Kazmir’s last five home starts.
The over for Chicago is on streaks of 6-1 after a day off, 5-1-1 against lefties and 4-1 in series openers, but the under is 36-17-5 in the last 58 on the road, 6-0-1 in the last seven against winning teams, 8-2-1 in the last 11 interleague road games and 15-5-1 in the last 21 on Tuesday.
The over for Tampa is on runs of 6-1-1 after an off day, 4-1-1 in series openers and 14-5-2 in interleague play, but the under is 12-4-1 in the team’s last 17 overall, 7-2-1 in its last 10 as a favorite and 20-7-1 in the last 28 at Tropicana Field.
ATS ADVANTAGE: TAMPA BAY and UNDER
Dave Cokin
HOU Astros and BAL Orioles
Take BAL Orioles
The Astros and Orioles open up a three-game set in Baltimore tonight with Brando Backe opposing Scott Olson. Olson kind of looks like a blowup waiting to happen, but the fact is he's 3-0 at home and I really like the chemistry on this Orioles squad. They're getting contributions from virtually everyone and are performing at a much higher level than almost anyone could have envisioned prior to the season. Houston has been lousy on the road, and Backe is just 1-6 away from home. He's also regressed over his last three starts and is back to the mediocre levels he showed early in the season. I'll spot the reasonable odds here with the Orioles.
Jim Feist
FLA Marlins and SEA Mariners
Take Over
An Interleague game in an AL park, so the DH is in play, which helps the offenses. You also have a pair of pitchers on the mound who walk too many batters. Florida's Scott Olsen has walked 35 in 88 innings, while Seattle's Felix Hernandez has 37 walks in 96 innings. Florida is 5-1 over the total the last 6 starts by Olsen and 19-10 over the total on the road. Look for plenty of runs in what is a low posted total. Play the Marlins/Mariners over the total!
Rocco Spacamuro
50 * Italy
Alex Smart
New York Yankees -165
The Yankees bats exploded this past weekend, scoring 23 runs in a three-game sweep of the Houston Astros. With momentum behind them I expect they will continue their current run against San Diego Padres, in the Bronx Zoo, tonight.
Look for an expect veteran hurler Andy Pettitte (6-5,4.64 ERA) to out pitch the Padres starting thrower Randy Wolfe (5-4, 3.83 ERA).
Final notes & Key Trends: Wolfe has pitched better at home than he has on the road this season, as is evident by his team losing all 5 of his road starts. Play on the Yankees
The Prez
San Diego Padres @ New York Yankees Under 9.0
Conditions: 73 degrees at first pitch with winds blowing to left field at 10 mph. Temps and wind speeds are expected to drop rapidly as the game progresses with an overnight low of 55 expected in the Big Apple.
Randy Wolf (5-4, 3.83) will make his first-ever start in Yankee Stadium. He's allowed just one run in each of his last three starts, and pitched seven innings while matching a season high with nine strikeouts in a 4-1 win over the Dodgers on Wednesday.
With three wins and two no decisions in the last five starts, the Wolf deserves some soft applause for carrying the Padres pitching staff while Jake Peavy and Chris Young were down and out. The southpaw has six consecutive quality starts and sports a 2.29 ERA, 0.99 WHIP, and 8.0 K/9 during that span. Wolf's home and away splits are unattractive, but given the fact that he has very little history against the Yankees' lineup and New York struggles against left-handed starters, he figures to be good for two turns through the batting order tonight.
Wolf vs. the New York hitters :
Johnny Damon is 1-for-6
Derek Jeter is 1-for-3
Chad Moeller is 0-for-2
Jorge Posada is 1-for-3
No other Yankee has any first hand experience against Wolf – (Advantage Wolf)
The Yankees are hitting .265 against left-handed starters.
Andy Pettitte (6-5, 4.64 ERA) allowed just a run over eight innings at Oakland in New York's 4-1 win. The 36-year old Pettitte has pitched better than his statline, and he’s inducing ground balls at a rate well above his career peripheral. The southpaw is at his best when coming off high pitch counts, which isn’t a surprise considering his experience and his style of pitching. In each of his starts this year that have followed a 100-plus pitch count outing-- he’s come back with quality starts -- save a four inning stint against the Rays on May 12th. That performance in Tropicana saw the lefty get little help from inconsistent home plate umpire Dan Iassogna and an aging Yankees defense. Pettitte’s last start in Oakland -- he threw 113 pitches over eight innings.
Pettitte’s K/BB (6.3) and K/9 (3.05) rates are the best they’ve been since his ’05 season in Houston, a campaign that saw him go 17-9 while striking out 171 batters in 222 innings. Pettitte’s Achilles’ this year has been the home run ball. After two sloppy outings against the Indians and Tigers in late April, starts that saw him give up two home runs in each game and five total in the month, he’s only allowed three in May and June (not counting the two wind aided long balls by KC in a 10 hit and 10 run loss where he was just plain unlucky).
Pettitte vs. the San Diego hitters:
Michael Barrett is 6-for-18 with two home runs
Tony Clark is 5-for-28 (.179) with one home run
Jody Gerut is 1-for-3
Brian Giles is 3-for-13 (.231)
Adrian Gonzalez is 1-for-5
Khalil Greene is 1-for-5
San Diego is 29th in the majors at 3.8 per game and is hitting .237 against left-handed starters.
The UNDER is 4-0 in Padres last 4 interleague games vs. a team with a winning record; and is 4-0 in Wolf's last 4 starts overall.
The UNDER is 12-3-1 in Yankees last 16 interleague games as a favorite of -151 to -200; is 6-1-1 in Pettitte's last 8 interleague starts; is 9-2 in Pettitte's last 11 starts with the total set at 9.0-10.5; and is 9-3 in Pettitte's last 12 starts on grass.
The Play is on the UNDER in New York
Vernon Croy
San Diego Padres vs. New York Yankees
Play: New York Yankees
1 Unit, Take the NY Yankees ML, We are actually getting value with the Yankees at home tonight since they should be favored by a lot more. Andy Pettitte (6-5, 4.64 ERA) is coming off one of his best outings of the season where he allowed just 5 hits and 1 earned run over 8 innings on the road against the Oakland Athletics and I look for him to dominate this Padres line-up tonight. The Padres are hitting just .235 against lefty starters this season while averaging just 3.6 rpg and they are just 11-22 on the road this season. The Yankees are hitting .284 as a team at home this season and they are averaging 5.8 rpg over 7 interleague games this season. The Yankees opponents are averaging just 2.6 rpg against them over their last 7 games and Randy Wolf (5-4, 3.83) has struggled on the road with an ERA of 5.31 this season. Take the Yankees as my free MLB play for Tuesday night and make sure you get on my huge MLB run which continues tonight.
Robert Ross
Houston Astros at Baltimore Orioles
Prediction: Houston Astros
Like Houston's chances to start off this interleague series with a win. HOUSTON is 7-2 against the money line in road games vs. a good bullpen that converts on 75%+ of their save opportunities this season while Baltimore is 19-33 against the money line vs. good defensive catchers - allowing 0.5 or less SB's/game over the last 2 seasons and 2-10 against the money line in home games vs. an NL starting pitcher whose ERA is 4.70 to 5.20 since 1997. Take Houston!
Jimmy The Moose
Kansas City Royals at St Louis Cardinals
Prediction: St Louis Cardinals
The Royals are 7-20 in their last 27 games overall. The Royals are 4-14 in their last 18 road games. In their last 13 road games vs. a team with a winning record they are 3-10. KC is 7-19 in their last 26 games as an underdog. St. Louis has won 6 of their last 8 games. St. Louis is 4-1 in their last 5 interleague games and a moneymaking 40-18 in their last 58 interleague home games. St. Louis is 11-5 in Loopers last 16 starts as a home favorite. KC is 6-14 in the last 20 meetings between the clubs. Play on the Cardinals -.
BIG AL
Washington Nationals at Minnesota Twins
Prediction: Minnesota Twins
Reason: At 8:05pm our member selection is on the Minnesota Twins over the Washington Nationals. Twins veteran righthander Livan Hernandez has pitched for a lot of teams in his now thirteen-year career and tonight he faces one of his former teams in interleague play. Hernandez had some of his best years with the Montreal Expos (now Washinton Nationals) between 2003 and 2006. Hernandez has had some pretty ugly pitching lines lately, but those have been against some pretty heavy-hitting and high-scoring teams like the Yankees, White Sox, and Rangers. The Nationals are neither a heavy-hitting nor high-scoring team, so look for Hernandez's luck to change this evening. Despite sweeping the worst team in baseball in their just-concluded, three-game interleague series in Seattle, the Nats had been struggling mightily prior to their visit to Safeco Field, having gone 2-10 in the twelve games leading up to that. Washington continues to battle injuries to key offensive players such as Ryan Zimmerman, Paul LoDuca, Nick Johnson, and Austin Kearns, while the Twins remain relatively healthy and seem to be on the improve of late. The Nats are also 2-7 in their last nine games following a win. Take the Twins
Scott Ferrall
ST.LOUIS -140 over Kansas City--The Cards will take advantage of the lowly Royals and TAKE THE OVER 9.5 RUNS The Cards are 9 games over .500 at Busch 2.
Colorado -115 over Cleveland--Paul Bryd gets a taste of the Rockies bats of late tonight at Coors. Reynolds finally wins a game and Colo gets to .500 at home for the season.
OAKLAND +125 over Arizona--I think theis kid Duchscherer is tough as hell and he'll pull one off the sweet snag over Webb in the desert. You've got to take chances and htis is one of them. Everyone is too quick to bet on Webb every time out.
Angels -115 over Mets--Lackey in a tight one over Johan Santana in Anaheim. The Mets won on Monday there but lose a close one tonight. TAKE THE UNDER 7 RUNS--these two can pitch andn hits will be scarce.
SEATTLE -145 over Florida--Felix THE KING with his 2.81 ERA over Olsen and the Marlins to even the series. I know the M's suck, but Hernandez is tough to beat. TAKE THE UNDER 8 RUNS
Detroit -115 over San Franciso--The Tigers are playing good baseball lately and Kenny Rogers keep it going tonight in the Bay over Sanchez
Bobby Maxwell
N.Y. Mets +110 at L.A. ANGELS
This game could go quick as two of the best pitchers in baseball are on the hill in the Mets' Johan Santana (7-4, 2.82 ERA) and the Angels' John Lackey (3-1, 1.83). We're going to side with Santana in this one as he's got plenty of experience against the Angels during his time in Minnesota.
Santana has faced Los Angeles eight times and in seven of those starts he held the Angels to three earned runs or less. The last time he faced them was July 16, 2005 when he held them to one earned runs in seven innings of a 5-4 victory.
Santana has had three straight games of one earned run or less and last time out he blanked the D'Backs on three hits over seven innings but the Mets lost 5-4. He's got a 0.87 ERA over his alst three games and a 2.80 ERA on the highway this season.
John Lackey has been brilliant this season since coming off the DL and he's allowed two earned runs or less in five of his six starts. He faced the Mets in 2005 and gave up three runs on six hits in 5.2 innings of a 4-3 win.
New York got the 9-6 win in Monday's series opener and the Mets will get this one tonight in what should be a great pitching matchup. Play the Mets.
3* N.Y. METS
Karl Garrett
Houston at BALTIMORE -130
Tonight on the diamond, the choice is obvious on the Orioles, as Baltimore welcomes the slumping Astros to town.
Houston has lost 5 straight, and 7 of their last 8, and their starting pitcher Brandon Backe has been atrocious on the road this year sporting a 1-6 record with a 5.95 ERA.
Backe is in the midst of a personal 3-game slide that has seen him allow 14 runs over his last 15 innings of work.
Garrett Olson will counter, and the Orioles southpaw has gone 3-0 at Camden Yards thus far with a nice 2.66 ERA.
Baltimore nearly swept Pittsburgh over the weekend, and the G-Man likes them tonight to hand the 'Stros loss number six in a row.
4* BALTIMORE
Chris Jordan
Detroit -115 at SAN FRANCISCO
Both teams send red-hot pitchers to the hill tonight, and it could very well come down to who gets on the board first, since either pitcher can hold a lead. The pitchers are automatically listed for you when playing a total, so be sure you get the two you see listed when making your wager. Kenny Rogers, who admittedly is 2-3 with a 5.28 ERA on the road this season, has been stunning his last four times to the hill – three in June – giving up just three earned runs over 29 innings.
He had his longest outing of the season against the White Sox his last time out, lasting eight innings and giving up an unearned run on four hits. He hasn’t had a decision since May 21 – a victory – so he’ll have his best stuff on the hill tonight, looking for that win he’s deserved in each of his last four times out.
Then there’s Jonathan Sanchez, who hasn’t necessarily been the team’s biggest winner, but the Giants have been the most successful when he toes the rubber. San Fran is 11-3 when he starts, and despite giving up seven runs and nine hits, he won his fourth consecutive decision. Sanchez has allowed three earned runs or fewer in 11 of his 14 outings this season, while the under is 4-1 in his last five home starts. Play the low number here, as these two duel in a low-scoring affair.
2* Tigers/Giants Under
Black Magic Sports
1 Unit on Arizona Diamondbacks -135
We are getting the Arizona Diamondbacks as a steal with Brandon Webb on the mound Tuesday. I’ll gladly take these odds every time as we cash in the Diamondbacks as our free play. Webb is 11-2 on the season with a 2.73 ERA and primed for another Cy Young if he keeps this up. Webb is 20-4 against the money line vs. teams averaging 2.75 or less extra base hits per game over the last 3 seasons. Webb pitched a complete game in his only career start against Oakland which resulted in a 3-1 Arizona victory. This is one of those prices on Webb that I simply cannot pass up. Cash in with Arizona as the favorite.