King Creole
Los Angeles Dodgers @ Houston Astros
Play: UNDER
Tonight's home plate Umpire in Houston is FIELDIN CULBRETH, who has a pretty solid 'UNDER" resume in the last 1.5 years. 2008 record stands at 5-9-2 O/U with 8.1 RPG. His recent numbers however, are much STRONGER. He's gone 0-3-1 O/U in his last 4 games (only 5.8 RPG)... and 1-7-1 O/U in his last 8 games dating back to early May (6.7 RPG). Tonight's starter for the host Astros is Wandy Rodriguez, and his numbers at home are impeccable. ERA is only 1.89 at home this year with a record of 1-3 O/U. Since coming off the DL, he's gone 1-3-1 O/U in 5 starts.
Nelly
San Diego + over Colorado
Josh Banks has pitched well for the Padres with a 2.33 ERA on the season and excellent numbers both home and away. Aaron Cook delivered a great start to the season but has been shaky since, allowing three or more runs in seven of his last nine starts. San Diego used a big ninth inning to deliver a win last night and now that the losing streak is snapped San Diego can get some confidence back at the plate. Meanwhile Colorado has dropped eight in a row and the Rockies are hitting just .247 in the last ten games against right-handed pitching. This is still a series with some emotion for the Padres considering the way last season ended and even though 2008 has been a nightmare for both teams this is a game that San Diego wants to win. Look for a solid pitching match-up and we catch great underdog value going against a team that has not been winning.
NSA
20* Detroit +120
10* Boston +110
10* St. Louis -140
10* Chi. White Sox. -125
10* Florida -135
10* Cubs +105
WUNDERDOG
Washington at Florida
Pick: 3 units on Florida -137
The Nats have never been a good road team and this season is no different. Washington have posted an 8-18 mark on the road against .500+ teams, and are just 11-22 overall in their last 33 games. Collin Balester will make his Major League debut tonight for the Nats, but his numbers at AAA Columbus aren't outstanding. He has pitched to a 4 ERA and allowed 14 HR'S in just 78 innings. Like the Marlins at home here.
Game: Boston at Tampa Bay
Pick: 3 units on Boston +108
It's not very often when you get a pitcher that has completely dominated an opponent over his career at plus money and backed by a excellent team as well. Tim Wakefield has amassed a 19-3 record against the D-Rays over his career. It is difficult to neglect the value in a very good Sox team backed by those kind of numbers. Matt Garza has pitched well of late, but his numbers against the Sox aren't very appealing this year, with just two starts and a 6.97 ERA. This is still a sub .500 pitcher for his career. The value lies with the Sox here.
Game: Detroit at Minnesota
Pick: 4 units on Detroit +125
This is hot vs. hot, or is it? The Twins hot has them playing over their heads while the Tigers' hot has them playing as everyone knew they could and then some. The Tigers have won six straight games and stand at 18-4 over their last 22. After making some noise with their 12-1 run, the Twins appear to be settling down into the average team they are, losing two of their last three and game one to the Tigers last night. The perception here is where the value lies. The Twins aren't as good as they have played, and have already stepped down from that level while the Tigers are a very good team and playing at their best right now. The value is evident as the Tigers take the field as a dog is just to hard to pass up at this point.
Game: Cleveland at Chicago
Pick: 3 units on Cleveland -128
The White Sox aren't just a hot team right now winning five straight, they are becoming a very good team as indicated by a long run at 28-15 over their last 43 games. The Sox have won all four home games against Cleveland this season. The Indians have become a horrible team as they have mirrored what the Sox have done, but in a losing way. Cleveland has gone gone 15-28 over their last 43 and just 7-18 over their last 25 road games. Cliff Lee vs. John Danks is basically a tossup, but the White Sox are finding ways to win while the Indians, ways to lose. We will back the Sox for their fifth straight at home over The Tribe.
Game: San Diego at Colorado
Pick: 3 units on Colorado -1.5 runs +121
Aaron Cook goes for Colorado today and San Diego can't be glad to see him. Cook is 7-1 with a 1.72 ERA in his last ten vs. the Pads. He's never lost at home to San Diego. Overall he's 10-5 on the season and owns a 3.25 ERA at home. San Diego averages just 3.7 runs per game (3.6 in night games) while Colorado scores 4.8 per game at home. San Diego is just 37-47 this season to the run line. Cook is 28-15 to the run line the past two seasons. He's also 20-7 the past decade to the run line vs. teams that average 7+ strikeouts per game. We like the Rockies to win by 2+ runs here.
Toronto at Seattle
3 units on Toronto -129
No other way to put it than the Mariners are a bad baseball team. They were shutout last night and ran their season total scoring two runs or less to 25 games. It has even been hard to win games when they get good pitching either home or away, as their home mark has been even worse then their away record. Toronto has been up and down all year, but right now they are definately up, winning six of eight, and Jesse Litsch has shown signs of coming out of a few-start funk. This is still a pitcher with an AL ERA for his career of under four, so against a punchless Mariners' lineup we look for a top-notch performance from him and a Jays win.
Chicago at San Francisco
3 units on San Francisco -120
While the Cubs have been extraordinary at home posting a 33-10 mark, they certainly have been less than ordinary on the road at 17-23. Recently, they are just 5-8 in their last 13 overall and not playing well at the moment. Jason Marquis got out quickly, posting an ERA in the mid 3's over his first four starts and has since pitched to a 5.5 ERA. Matt Cain has deserved a better fate pitching 11 games allowing three runs or less, but just four wins to show for it. Cubs look ripe to be had on the road, and Marquis might be the kind of pitcher the Giants make some noise against
GamblersWorld
Texas Rangers vs. New York Yankees
Prediction: New York Yankees
The Texas Rangers will be trying to extend a winning streak on Tuesday when they take on the New York Yankees at Yankee Stadium. The Rangers will trot ace Kevin Millwood out to the mound in this one. Righthander Millwood has a 5-4 record and a 5.08 ERA this season. Meanwhile, it'll be Joba Chamberlain who starts for the Yankees. Righthander Chamberlain is 1-0 with a 1.80 ERA so far this season. Oddsmakers currently have the Yankees listed as 210-moneyline favorites versus the Rangers, while the game's total is sitting at 9½. The Rangers defeated the Yankees 2-1 as a +165 underdog on Monday. The three runs scored fell UNDER the posted over/under total (10). Scott Feldman allowed one run in five 2-3 strong innings for Texas, while Josh Hamilton had an RBI in the win. Alex Rodriguez hit a solo home run for the Yankees and Mike Mussina took the loss despite allowing only two runs on five hits, with eight strikeouts in six innings. Current streak: Texas has won 2 straight games. New York has lost 2 straight games. Team records: Texas: 43-41 SU New York: 44-39 SU Texas most recently: When playing on Tuesday are 6-4 Before playing NY Yankees are 2-8 After playing NY Yankees are 2-8 After a win are 3-7 New York most recently: When playing on Tuesday are 6-4 Before playing Texas are 6-4 After playing Texas are 6-4 After a loss are 7-3 A few trends to consider: The total has gone UNDER in 4 of Texas's last 5 games on the road Texas is 4-2 SU in its last 6 games on the road The total has gone UNDER in 8 of Texas's last 12 games Texas is 4-2 SU in its last 6 games The total has gone UNDER in 5 of NY Yankees's last 6 games at home NY Yankees are 18-4 SU in their last 22 games when playing Texas The total has gone UNDER in 4 of NY Yankees's last 5 games NY Yankees are 9-4 SU in their last 13 games when playing at home against Texas
Erin Renning/ER Sports
MLB Playmaker: San Francisco -110
MLB Boston / Tampa Bay Under 8.5
Larry Ness Weekly Wipeout Winner
Rockies
Oscarxena Sports
LA Dodgers +1.22 (3 Unit Play)
These two pitchers going today have been having trouble going deep into games but I just feel that Clayton Kershaw has been having some bad luck lately and that the Dodgers will get to Wandy Rodriguez tonight. Kershaw so far this year has a 4.15 ERA on the road in only 13 innings of work and a rather high WHIP of 1.77 but if this kid is able to get his control down he is going to be very tough to hit. The Astros have never faced him and I look for Kershaw to throw well tonight. The Astros are countering with Wandy Rodriguez who usually pitches very well at home and that is evidenced by his 1.89 ERA in 38 innings of work but he has been having trouble going deep into games lately although he did pitch well in his last outing. Today's HP umpire is Fieldin Culbreth and he has favored the away team all year as those teams are 10-5 so far this year and also Rodriguez has pitched two games with Culbreth behind home plate and lost both. This line appears fishy to me and I look for the Dodgers to win this evening.
NY Mets +1.24 (3 Unit Play)
How low can the Mets go? They have to resort to Tony Armas Jr. for a start here tonight in St. Louis but that may not be such a horrible thing as Armas has been solid so far down in Triple A New Orleans. He is only 5-7 so far this year but he has a 2.54 ERA in 102 2/3 innings of work and has a 1.02 WHIP with 88 SO's compared to only 20 walks this year. Armas has also had some history against the Cardinals going 5-2 in games started for his team with a 4.19 ERA. The Cardinals will have Todd Wellemeyer on the mound who has been battling some elbow problems lately and although he threw well against the Tigers last game he was removed rather early after only 5 innings and still might have some lingering effects that the Cardinals are not mentioning. The Mets have went 6-2 with HP umpire Tom Hallion lately while the Cardinals are only 4-6 and Armas has actually worked one game with him so although the play is risky I like the Mets as underdogs here tonight.
Chicago Cubs/San Francisco Under 7 1/2 -1.03 (3 Unit Play)
The Cubs are missing big bats in their lineups and have a tough task tonight in taking on Matt Cain who has been notorious for having very good second halfs and he gets the start tonight for the Giants. Cain's numbers are not outstanding as he has a 4.47 ERA at home this year in 50 1/3 innings of work but he has pitched fairly well against Chicago in his career going 3-2 with a 1.091 WHIP. The Cubs are countering with Jason Marquis who had a horrendous outing last time but on the road so far this year he has recorded a 3.51 ERA in 41 innings of work and has a 1.46 WHIP. These two teams are weak hitting teams right now and may have problems scoring runs tonight with an Under umpire like Bill Miller who has umpired 9 Unders this year compared to only 6 Overs. Marquis has worked with Miller five times already in his career and is 4-1 with 3 games going Under with a push while Cain worked one game which was an exhibition game with no total set. Look for not a lot of baserunners this evening and an Under game tonight.
Keith Martin Computer Plays
Top plays
none
Medium plays
Chicago Cubs Over 7.5 3
Minnesota Twins (M: -137.0) 3
Regular plays
New York Yankees (M: -205.0)
Cincinnati Reds (M: -180.0)
Philadelphia Phillie (M: -106.0)
Tampa Bay Rays (M: -125.0)
Los Angeles Dodgers (M: 119.0)
Milwaukee Brewers (M: 108.0)
Oakland Athletics (M: -106.0)
Texas Rangers Under 9.0
Boston Red Sox Under 8.5
Milwaukee Brewers Over 9.0
Chicago White Sox (M: -124.0)
Jeff Benton
15 Dime: ASTROS
10 Dime: A's-Angels UNDER
Robert Ferringo
2.5-Unit Play. Take St. Louis (-135) over New York Mets
Taylor Wellenmeyer just wins. He's won four of six starts and has given up more than three earned runs just once since April. And if Tony Armas Jr. was throwing for any team in the MLB I would be playing against them - hard. The Cardinals are just better a much, much better team here. They are familiar with Armas' work from when he's with the Pirates. The Cards are 16-6 against the Mets in St. Louis and Armas is not going to fool anyone. The Cardinals are going to take Game 2 in this series.
2.5-Unit Play. Take Philadelphia (+100) over Atlanta
Note: If you haven't already played this game knock it down to a 2-Unit play.
Atlanta just doesn't have the horses right now. Chipper Jones is on the disabled list and the Braves are 3-10 when he isn't in the lineup. Several other players - Yunel Escobar, Mark Kotsay, Omar Infante - are either hurt, playing through pain, or coming off the D.L. Philadelphia plays well in Atlanta, having won four of five in the Chop Shop. I'm bucking a very successful system that I work with this one, but it's because I feel like Philly is just going to put a better team on the field tonight.
2-Unit Play. Take Houston (-125) over Los Angeles Dodgers
The Dodgers just cannot score, and we have Wandy Rodriquez at home. The Dodgers are 1-9 against a left-handed starter and 5-13 in their last 18 road games. The Astros are 14-6 in Wandy's last 20 home starts and they are 5-1 in their last six against the Dodgers. The Astros are playing at a higher level right now, and even if they lose this game we will go BIG on them tomorrow because I just don't see the Dodgers winning this series.
1.5-Unit Play. Take Florida (-135) over Washington
The Marlins are 11-1 in their last 12 against the Nationals and are facing a rookie starter today. That's significant because the ump behind the dish has kind of a tight zone. I could see the kid getting rattled. The Nats don't hit lefties and they don't hit on the road. The Marlins have played four of six series against first-place teams and a fifth series against the second-place A's in Oakland. They are on the outside of that rough patch and could be ready to roll.
1.5-Unit Play. Take Colorado (-155) over San Diego
1-Unit Play. Take Colorado (-1.5, +125) over San Diego
You think that the Rockies have to get their head out of their ass here pretty quick. They are a mess, but it's kind of inexplicable. I don't think that they have given up just yet so I think that there is still hope of them showing up. I do expect another high-scoring game, but I don't see the Padres being able to match their output. Josh Banks has been exceptional, but he's never thrown in Colorado before. I think the Rockies get to him early and match San Diego's blowout from last night.
The Experts Guaranteed Selections
ULTIMATE EXPERTS BASEBALL DIAMOND WINNER
St Louis w/Wellemeyer -133
Root
Chairman- Cards
Millionaire- Brewers
No Limit- A's
Nostradamus
Phil/Atl OVER 9.5
Milwaukee +120
Oak/LA OVER 7
ADDING
System Plays
MLB-Pitt/Cincy OVER 8.5 +100
MLB-Mets/Cards OVER 9 +100
MLB-Baltimore -125
MLB-Minnesota -140
MLb-Yanks/Rockies (parlay) $100/$129
Rocketman Sports
Los Angeles Dodgers vs. Houston Astros
Play: Houston Astros
LA Dodgers are scoring only 4.0 runs per game overall this year. Kershaw is 0-2 overall this year. Rodriguez has a 2.58 ERA overall this year and a 1.89 ERA at home this season. Houston is 4-0 overall vs LA Dodgers this year. Rodriguez is 2-1 with a 2.41 ERA overall vs LA Dodgers since 1997. We'll recommend a small play on Houston tonight!