Winners Inc. Guaranteed Selections
5000* BASEBALL WINNER
Florida w/Hendrikson -140
WINNERS EDGE
Minnesota Twins -135 , 2 units
Cincinnati Reds -1.5 +125 , 1 unit
Cleveland Indians + 115 , 1 unit
KELSO
High Rollers Baseball
15 unit - Astros
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4 unit - Toronto
3 unit - Cards
The Prez
Los Angeles Dodgers at Houston Astros
PICK: Houston Astros Prez' 6* BIG GAME PICK PAC - 14-4 MLB RUN
LA Dodgers at Houston Astros
Pitchers: Clayton Kershaw vs. Wandy Rodriguez
Umpire: Fieldin Culbreth
Conditions: 94 degrees at first pitch with winds blowing in from center field at 5-10 mph
Clayton Kershaw (0-2, 4.36 ERA) has yet to win a major league start, and tonight's task against the Astros will take a near perfect effort to record that first win. The 20-year-old left-hander struggled in his last outing, allowing two runs, six hits and four walks in four-plus innings Thursday in a 2-0 loss to the Chicago White Sox. Kershaw is winless in 16 professional starts dating to Aug. 20, 2007, with Double-A Jacksonville. The rookie hasn't received much run support - getting only eight runs in his seven starts -- and isn't likely to get much tonight against the Houston left-hander (Wandy Rodriguez) who is stellar when pitching at home.
Kershaw has an advantage with a generous strike zone from home plate umpire Culbreth tonight, and no Houston hitter has any first hand experience against the Dodgers rookie. (advantage Kershaw the first 2-to-3 times through the batting order).
Wandy Rodriguez (3-3, 2.58) looks to win consecutive starts for the first time this season. The left-hander matched a career high with nine strikeouts and limited Texas to one run and five hits over a season-best eight innings Thursday in a 7-2 victory. Rodriguez is 2-2 with a 1.89 ERA pitching in Minute Maid Park. He has yielded one earned run or none in five of six starts at home.
Rodriguez versus the LAD hitters:
Angel M. Berroa is 0-for-3
Andre Ethier is 0-for-2
Matt Kemp is 1-for-2
James Loney is 0-for-3
Russell Martin is 0-for-3
Jason Repko is 1-for-3
The only bat in the Dodgers lineup that has had any success against Wandy is Jeff Kent who is 3-for-5 with two doubles and a home run. Expect Rodriguez to pitch carefully to the ex-Astro.
Both teams have been more productive against left-handed starters, however, tonight's umpire and conditions should keep both offenses honest.
Fieldin Culbreth has always been pitcher-friendly, but fair. The hitters in the Bigs know he has a wide zone and go to the plate with the understanding they have to swing the bat. Culbreth gives both starters room to work tonight, but he is especially a good fit with the veteran Rodriguez.
3 UNIT Play on Houston and Rodriguez
Los Angeles Dodgers at Houston Astros
PICK: Under Prez' 6* BIG GAME PICK PAC - 14-4 MLB RUN
LA Dodgers at Houston Astros
Pitchers: Clayton Kershaw vs. Wandy Rodriguez
Umpire: Fieldin Culbreth
Conditions: 94 degrees at first pitch with winds blowing in from center field at 5-10 mph
Clayton Kershaw (0-2, 4.36 ERA) has yet to win a major league start, and tonight's task against the Astros will take a near perfect effort to record that first win. The 20-year-old left-hander struggled in his last outing, allowing two runs, six hits and four walks in four-plus innings Thursday in a 2-0 loss to the Chicago White Sox. Kershaw is winless in 16 professional starts dating to Aug. 20, 2007, with Double-A Jacksonville. The rookie hasn't received much run support - getting only eight runs in his seven starts -- and isn't likely to get much tonight against the Houston left-hander (Wandy Rodriguez) who is stellar when pitching at home.
Kershaw has an advantage with a generous strike zone from home plate umpire Culbreth tonight, and no Houston hitter has any first hand experience against the Dodgers rookie. (advantage Kershaw the first 2-to-3 times through the batting order).
Wandy Rodriguez (3-3, 2.58) looks to win consecutive starts for the first time this season. The left-hander matched a career high with nine strikeouts and limited Texas to one run and five hits over a season-best eight innings Thursday in a 7-2 victory. Rodriguez is 2-2 with a 1.89 ERA pitching in Minute Maid Park. He has yielded one earned run or none in five of six starts at home.
Rodriguez versus the LAD hitters:
Angel M. Berroa is 0-for-3
Andre Ethier is 0-for-2
Matt Kemp is 1-for-2
James Loney is 0-for-3
Russell Martin is 0-for-3
Jason Repko is 1-for-3
The only bat in the Dodgers lineup that has had any success against Wandy is Jeff Kent who is 3-for-5 with two doubles and a home run. Expect Rodriguez to pitch carefully to the ex-Astro.
Both teams have been more productive against left-handed starters, however, tonight's umpire and conditions should keep both offenses honest.
Fieldin Culbreth has always been pitcher-friendly, but fair. The hitters in the Bigs know he has a wide zone and go to the plate with the understanding they have to swing the bat. Culbreth gives both starters room to work tonight, but he is especially a good fit with the veteran Rodriguez.
5 UNIT Play on UNDER in Minute Maid Park
Cleveland Indians at Chicago White Sox
PICK: Under 6* BIG GAME PICK PAC - 14-4 MLB RUN
Cleveland Indians at Chicago White Sox
Pitchers: Cliff Lee vs. John Danks
Umpire: Marty Foster
Conditions: 81 degrees at first pitch with winds blowing at 10 mph towards the left field corner
Cliff Lee (11-1, 2.34 ERA) allowing a run, four hits and struck out a career-high 11 in eight innings of a 4-1 victory over San Francisco on Thursday. Lee struggled against Chicago in one start last season, allowing seven runs in 5 1-3 innings of an 11-10 home loss on July 16, but it obvious three months into the season that Lee is a different pitcher than he was a year ago. The southpaw is shooting for his 11th victory of the season tonight.
John Danks (5-4, 2.62) looks for a second straight victory for the White Sox after allowing four hits in six innings of a 2-0 win over the Los Angeles Dodgers on Thursday. The southpaw is 1-2 with a 4.44 ERA in five starts against the Indians. He allowed a run and two hits in 6.2 innings of a 2-1 loss at Cleveland on April 3.
Danks got a win and a quality start against the Dodgers on Thursday afternoon with six solid innings of shutout ball. At that time he handed the responsibility to one of the best bullpens in baseball. Danks has only given up one earned run and struck out 14 in the last three starts covering 18 innings. Danks has 11 quality starts in 16 games. He has a pretty solid K rate and strike out to walk ratio and his BABIP (.299) is on par with his peripherals. However, he has been somewhat fortunate with an 80 percent Strand rate. He is unlikely to strand runners at such a high rate for the duration of the season, but home plate umpire Marty Foster gives him a good chance to keep his Strand rate high tonight. Where the left-hander has made his largest strides in his second season is keeping the ball down in the zone. He has taken a ground ball to fly ball ration that was .76 in his rookie season to a 1.45 this year. The White Sox offense isn't nearly as productive against left-handed starters and that continues tonight.
The home plate umpire, Marty Foster is pitcher-friendly, and the weather conditions in U.S Cingular field favor the pitchers.
5 UNIT Play on UNDER in Chicago
Kansas City Royals at Baltimore Orioles
PICK: Under Prez' 6* BIG GAME PICK PAC - 14-4 MLB RUN
Kansas City Royal at Baltimore Orioles
Pitchers: Luke Hochevar vs. Radhames Liz
Umpire: Larry Vanover
Conditions: Isolated storms; 80 degrees first pitch with winds blowing from left to right field at 5 mph
Luke Hochevar (5-5, 4.60 ERA) is 2-0 with a 3.51 ERA in his last four starts. The rookies allowed two runs and seven hits in a career-high eight innings of a 4-2 win over Colorado in his last start. Hochevar lost his only game against the Orioles (41-40) on May 8, giving up four runs and five hits in seven innings of the 4-1 defeat. After a disappointing outing against the Giants on June 20, a start when the right-hander couldn't escape the fifth inning and didn't record a strikeout, he bounced back strong with his best work of the season in the 4-2 win over Colorado. His ground ball rate is over-the-top good and the 24 year old is beginning to come of age. The key is for Hochevar to pitch to contact, keep his sinker down in the strike zone and get some help from a home plate umpire that offers the low strike. The Royals defense is their strength and it has taken two months to beat this information into the head of the rookie.
Larry Vanover gives the Royal rookie a chance to baffle the O’s lineup with his low strikezone. Hochevar has turned his minor league K rate of .90, which is very good. into a sinker that induces a large percentage of ground balls. Against Colorado in his last start the righty induced 12 ground ball outs - and three fly ball outs.
Radhames Liz (2-0, 5.70 ERA) allowed two runs on four hits in five innings of an 11-4 road win over the Chicago Cubs on Thursday. The O's right hander has faced some very good hitting clubs. In his last six starts he has faced the Yankees at home, at Minnesota and Toronto, Pittsburgh and his last two starts at Milwaukee and Wrigley Field.
Liz has the advantage for the first two to three times through the batting order. No Royal hitter has any first hand experience against the Baltimore starter (advantage Liz)
Larry Vanover is a solid umpire with a generous K Zone. His career strikeout to walk ratio is above 2.0 and in 2003 he had a historic pitcher friendly season where 21 of this 30 games came in UNDER the total.
The UNDER is 6-1-1 in Royals last 8 road games vs. a right-handed starter; is 38-14-1 in Royals last 53 games as an underdog of +110 to +150; and is 11-3 in Hochevars last 14 starts overall.
6 UNIT Play on UNDER the 9.5 in Baltimore
Oakland Athletics at Los Angeles Angels
PICK: Under 6* BIG GAME PICK PAC - 14-4 MLB RUN
Oakland Athletics at LA Angels
Pitchers: Rich Harden vs. Ervin Santana
Umpire: Hunter Wendelstedt
Conditions: 81 degrees at first pitch with winds blowing from right to left field at 8 mph
Rich Harden (5-0, 2.15 ERA) is 2-0 while allowing one run and eight hits in 19.2 innings over his last three starts. The right-handed phenom is looking to become the first pitcher for Oakland (45-37) to open a season 6-0 since Dave Stewart accomplished the feat in 1990. The right-hander is coming off a career-high 11 strike outs while allowing only two hits and a walk in eight innings of a 5-0 victory over a hard-hitting Philadelphia lineup.
Harden is 5-3 with a 3.99 ERA in 13 games - 12 starts - against Los Angeles. He gave up three runs and struck out nine in six innings of a 7-3, 12-inning victory over the Angels on June 8.
Ervin Santana (9-3, 3.32) struggled in his last start against Washington, this after dominating the Phillies at Citizen Bank Park. Santana has owned the A's during his career. The right-hander is 8-1 with a 1.38 ERA in 12 games - 11 starts - against Oakland, including 1-0 in two outings this season while allowing two earned runs in 13 innings. He's gone 21 consecutive innings without giving up an earned run to the A's in Anaheim.
However, there is an injury concern with Santana. He allowed four runs and a season-high five walks, including one with the bases loaded, in six innings of a 5-4 loss at Washington on Wednesday. Santana struck out eight and did not get a decision. He is dealing with a cracked middle nail on his throwing hand, that Team Prez insiders blamed for his command issues in Washington.
Hunter Wendelstedt was the home plate umpire in March when the A's were facing the Red Sox in Japan. Harden was on the mound in that game and came out a 5-1 winner.
Neither pitcher needs a large strike zone to dominate lineups and both offenses are struggling to score. The Vegas number of 7 is tiny for an American League game, but is fitting for the two pitchers tonight and their statline against the opposing hitters.
The conditions favor the pitchers and history tells us this will be a low scoring affair. A quick and efficient game just like veteran umpires like.
5 UNIT Play on UNDER in LA
DAVE MALINSKY
5* TOP OF THE TICKET - Kansas City Royals
TOP OF THE TICKET - CHICAGO WHITE SOX
Beat Your Bookie
100 - Tampa Bay
50 - Cinn
50 - NY Yanks
Steve Zukiel Guaranteed Selections
Pittsburgh vs Cincinnati
Line: Cincinnati(-180)
Rating: Guaranteed 60 Unit MLB Ugly Game Of The Month In this contest, my money is on the Cincinnati Reds
Both teams have losing records, but the Reds have the bigger advantage in this one because of where they are playing. Pittsburgh has been God-awful on the road, winning just 12 of their first 37. In fact they have lost six of their last seven and have allowed a whopping 62 runs in the process. YUCK! Cincinnati might also have a losing record, but they do own a winning record at home. They are up against Pittsburgh's Zach Duke and his 0-2 road record, and that is good news for Cincy fans as the Reds are 7-3 at home versus lefties and are averaging their highest run output of any situation. Edinson Volquez takes the hill for the Reds and he has been their ace all season long. The youngster is 10-2 on the year and sports an ERA of 2.12. Those numbers are good, but they get even better at home. The right-hander is a perfect 5-0 in his seven home starts and his ERA has dropped to 1.83. Cincinnati is the play. Take them to the bank.
STEVE ZUKIEL TAKES THE CINCINNATI REDS OVER THE PITTSBURGH PIRATES AS MY GUARANTEED 60 UNIT MLB UGLY GAME OF THE MONTH
Michael Cannon
20 Dime –
PHILLIES (With Kendrick and Morton as listed pitchers)
Take the Phillies for the road win tonight over the Braves.
Not real sure what the linemaker is thinking here making the Braves the favorite, but I’ll gladly take his generosity.
I know the Braves have played very well at home this year, but with Chipper Jones out of the lineup and a rookie pitcher making his fourth start of the season, that more than offsets their stellar home record.
In all fairness, Philly has struggled lately but that was in interleague play, and you can’t really ascertain anything from that since it’s essentially glorified exhibition games.
Kyle Kendrick will start for the Phillies and he’s 7-3 with a 4.59 ERA on the season. The right-hander is coming off his best outing of the season, lasting eight innings and allowing just four hits in a 4-0 win at Oakland Wednesday.
Take the Phillies as they grab the road win.
10 Dime –
ASTROS (With Rodriguez as listed pitcher)
Take the Astros for the home win tonight over the Dodgers.
I made the mistake of backing the Dodgers last night, but it’s readily apparent their offense has completely disintegrated over the past week or so.
There’s no way I’m making that mistake again tonight, not with Wandy Rodriguez getting the start for the Astros.
The left-hander is just 3-3 on the year, but sports a 2.58 ERA and is nearly unbeatable when pitching at home.
Rookie Clayton Kershaw will get the start for the Dodgers and he’s battled some control issues since being called up, walking 22 batters in just 33 innings.
Take the Astros as they grab the home win.
Jeff Bonds
Triple-Dime Bet
BOS (+113) vs TAM
Double-Dime Bet
HOU (-128) vs LOS
Greg Shaker Final Card
Double-Dime Bet
ARI (-117) vs MIL
Double-Dime Bet
TOR (-123) vs SEA
Double-Dime Bet
CWS (-125)vs CLE
Note: This line has dropped from an open of -140 and it is even lower than what I posted at some books. It is not easy to go against a pitcher of Lee's ability but their is no doubt that Danks has been every bit as good both for the year and recently. There is also no doubt that the Indians have not struck lefties very well this year, batting 45 points less on the road than verses Righties and maintaining a batting average of just 186 over their last 12 games verses the same. While Chicago has not hit lefties well either they have had great success verses the one that they will face tonight. Lee struggled against Chicago in one start last season, allowing seven runs in 5 1/3 innings of an 11-10 home loss on July 16. He also gave up three runs in two innings of relief against the White Sox in 2007. Lee is 4-5 with a 6.44 in career 15 starts against the White Sox in fact. The Sox are playing very good baseball right now winning their last 5 and they are doing a lot of things right, including getting great work from their Pen. They have been practically unbeatable here at this park at 28-11 while Cleveland has struggled a great deal away from theirs. Chicago loves to beat the Indians and they have always done so very well. In fact the Sox are 7-1 in the last 8 meetings. This city is excited about their two teams and the Sox are excited themselves and having fun this year. We do have a great mindset for this contest and I will lay what is a large betting line for me but one that has drifted down to Play Territory.
Double-Dime Bet
CIN -1.5 (+120)vs PIT
Note: There are so many reasons to lay the 1.5 runs here. Duke has not performed well on the road and the Pitt Pen has been even worse. The Reds are a lefty hitting team and they will get some runs tonight. Volquez is coming off his worst start of the year but this guy has great numbers, is well rested after just 90 pitches thrown last outing, and has been superb at home with a 5-0 record and ERA of 1.84. He is also very good on the grass with his very fine sinker ball, allowing just 1 Dinger over the last 6 games. Cincy is much the better team here at Great American. When we see the Pirates Pen tonight we could be in for a Bonanza. They failed last night again, and they have an ERA topping 6 runs. Great situation tonight here.
Double-Dime Bet
STL / NYM Under 9
Note: The Mets purchased the contract of Tony Armas from AAA New Orleans on Monday. Armas had a 2.54 ERA in New Orleans after signing a minor league contract in February. He is throwing well and he can be very good when he is. Todd Wellemeyer has been superb and did not appear to be slowed by an elbow injury in his last trip to the mound. He has great number this year with very good ratios. These two teams play a lot of low scoring game with 10 of the last 11 going UNDER this posted total and the only one being a 10 run affair. It is going to take 10 to beat us and I don't think that we will see that many cross the plate tonight.
King Creole
COL / SDP Over 9.5 2** Play on: OVER THE TOTAL
SCOTT BARRY hasn't been umping very long in the big leagues. His history only goes back 2.5 seasons. But the results are 'OVER'-whelming. Tonight will be his first visit ever (behind the dish) at Coors Field. Current numbers on the year: 10-4 O/U with average runs scored at 11.4. Going back to the beginning of last season, he's gone 17-5 O/U in his last 22 games (11.8 RPG). He only had 8 games last year, but went 7-1 O/U in them. Breaking it down a little further, he's also gone 9-3 O/U In ALL National League games... and 8-2 O/U in Righty vs Righty pitching matchups. We have been on Scott Barry 'OVERS' in each of his last 4 games as part of King Creole's gameday late-phone service. He has rewarded us with a 3-1 record in those four games. But what's even more important in regards to tonight's game is the alarming amount of walks that he is allowed lately. And sharp 'OVER" players know that FREE base runners (as in walks) increase our chances of cashing a winner. In his last 3 starts, BARRY has allowed 26 K's... and 26 WALKS. That's a K/BB ratio of only 1 to 1. Most Umpires have a K/BB ratio of about 1.8 to 1.... to 2.3 to 1. So giving up a lot of walks is a good sign for potential high scoring results.
The timing is good for a another Coors Field 'OVER" tonight (last night's Game One had 23 runs scored in it). With no off days in a while, both bullpens are pretty well shot. Neither starter made it to the 6th inning last night, so each bullpen went 4+ innings. San Diego's pen has gone 4, 4, 3, 4, 6, and 4 innings with no rest. Colorado's has gone 3, 2.6, 3. 4. and 4 with no rest. Both of tonight's starters have added pressure on them, and one (or both) figure to blow up being as they are in bad current form themselves. Both Banks and Cook have ERA's of over 5.00 in their last 3 starts (11.6 RPG average). Both have looked extremely shaky in their last two (banks: 5.40 ERA / cook: 6.75).
The Hammer
Houston
William Kidd
Colorado
Vernon Croy
Oakland Athletics vs. LAA Angels
Pick: Oakland Athletics
The Athletics opponents are hitting just .195 as a team against them over their last 7 games while averaging just 2.9 rpg and the Angels are hitting just .205 as a team over their last 7 games while averaging just 2.4 rpg. Rich Harden (5-0, 2.15 ERA) has pitched solid overall this season and he has an ERA of just 0.46 over his last 3 starts allowing just 8 hits over 19.7 innings. The Athletics are 5-1 this season when Harden has started for them in a night game and they are a perfect 3-0 when he has started on the road. I look for the Angels bats to continue to struggle against one of the best pitchers in the majors tonight so take the Athletics as my MLB Smash of the Night.
Jorge Gonzalez’s 25* AL Total of the Week
Cleveland Indians vs. Chicago White Sox
Pick: Under Play Title:
The Cleveland Indians take on the Chicago White Sox tomorrow. We are going to see two of the better pitching staffs in the league. Going into Thursday’s action the White Sox had the best ERA in the major leagues at 3.41. While the White Sox are allowing 3.8 runs per game the Indians pitching staff is allowing just 4.3 runs per contest. Over the last seven games Chicago is allowing just 3.2 runs per game while Cleveland is allowing just 3.7 runs per contest. The Indians will be sending Cliff Lee( 11-1, 2.34ERA) has been exceptional over the last three games with an ERA of 1.66. The White Sox will be sending John Danks (5-4, 2.66 ERA) to the mound. In the 16 games that Danks has started the under has prevailed in 12 of those games. Over Danks last three starts he has an ERA of 0.50 and all three have gone under the posted number. Cleveland has struggled on offense all year scoring just 4.4 runs per game. The White Sox are scoring just 4.3 runs per over their last seven games. Both pitchers will have a big strike zone with Martin Foster behind the plate. When he is behind the plate 6.88 runs are being scored per game and the under is 13-4. Take this game to go under.