Ben Burns
Florida Marlins @ San Diego Padres
PICK: San Diego Padres
While the Padres dropped yesterday's opener, I believe that they've got an excellent shot at evening up the series this evening. Wolf has made nine starts at Petco Park and the Padres have won six of them. Wolf's six wins represent nearly 30% of the team's 21 home wins this season. In other words, when Wolf has started at Petco, the Padres have been in one of their most profitable (+3.1 net games) roles. On the other hand, Andrew Miller has a 4.91 ERA and 1.594 WHIP in his nine road starts, with the Marlins losing five of those games. Their home/road K/W ratio's show how much more dominant Wolf has been. Miller has 27 K's and 22 walks in his 47+ road innings. Despite a rare sub-par effort in his last start here, Wolf still has 54 Ks and just 19 K's in 53+ home innings. Consider a play on SAN DIEGO
Wunderdog
Houston at Phoenix
Pick: Phoenix -5.5
Phoenix is an exciting team, and they have spent a good deal of their recent games on the road. They are coming off a successful 4-3 road trip, and the offense has taken center stage, but truly shining at home. The Mercury, now brings their running game home to feed it with even more energy. The Comets have lost games by an average of nearly nine points per game when they give up 80 points or more and the Mercury are almost a cinch for 80, so we like them here at home.
St. Louis at Philadelphia
Pick: St. Louis +1.5 runs -118
This is a St. Louis team that has been a lot more competitive than most thought at the beginning of the year. They are 10 games over .500 and their road play has been superb of late as they are 15-9 over their last 24 road games. Joel Piniero has not been great, but in nine of his 13 starts he has allowed three runs or less and is more than capable of keeping the Cards in the game. This is a rough spot for the Phillies to be such heavy chalk. The Phillies have been just 7-14 over their last 21 games and are currently in a three-game losing streak. The offense has gone cold producing less than four runs a game over their last 18. The Phillies also have a tired bullpen. When a team that starts a pitcher that strikes out more than five hitters a game and has a tired bullpen throwing 6+ innings in two straight games, they have been 10-30 at home to the -1.5 runline. This bodes well for the Cards here so we will play them on the runline.
Black Widow Sports
1* on Minnesota Twins +156
The Minnesota Twins should not be this heavy of an underdog Tuesday against the Boston Red Sox. Minnesota is 18-4 (+17.0 Units) against the money line vs. an average bullpen whose ERA is 3.75 to 4.50 this season. Boston’s bullpen is far from spectacular this season, in fact it’s their weakest link. Minnesota is 11-4 (+10.7 Units) against the money line vs. a starting pitcher whose winning percentage is better than 70% over the last 2 seasons. Minnesota is 14-3 (+13.2 Units) against the money line after allowing 3 runs or less 2 straight games this season. Twins’ starter Nick Blackburn will keep this success going for the Twins tonight. Blackburn is 7-4 and flaunts a 3.78 ERA on the season. Take the Twins on the Money Line.
Locksmith Sports
1 Unit on Pittsburgh Pirates -118
We'll pick on the struggling Astros here with one of the better home chalk pitchers to back in baseball. The Astros are a terrible 4-14 in their last 18 road games, 3-12 in their last 15 games as an underdog of +110 to +150, and 2-10 in their last 12 during game 2 of a series. The 'stros are also just 2-9 in Backe's last 11 starts as a road underdog. The Pirates are an impressive 17-5 in their last 22 games as a favorite of -110 to -150, 10-1 in Snell's last 11 starts as a home favorite of -110 to -150, and 15-3 in Snell's last 18 starts as a home favorite period. The Astros are only 3-7 in the last 10 meetings in Pittsburgh and 6-13 in the last 19 meetings overall. Bet the Bucs.
Info Plays
3* on Toronto Blue Jays -132
The Blue Jays are 14-8 in their last 22 home games against the Orioles. They won’t be dropping this AL East battle tonight. Dustin McGowan has been excellent at home, going 4-2 with a 2.20 ERA in seven home starts this year. McGowan will get great help from his bullpen to close this one out. The Jays’ bullpen has a 2.99 ERA in all home games this season. Toronto is 23-13 after scoring 1 run or less over the last 2 seasons. Baltimore is 21-44 vs. a starting pitcher whose gives up 0.5 or less HR's/start over the last 2 seasons. The Blue Jays get the bats going tonight while the Orioles get nothing off McGowan. Bet Toronto at home.
HoopsEdge
Indiana Fever -2 1 UNIT
Priceless Picks
1 Unit on KC Royals +114
The Sox are just 2-14 against the money line in road games vs. an AL starting pitcher whose ERA is 4.70 to 5.20 over the last 3 seasons and 5-19 against the money line in road games with a hot bullpen whose ERA is under 3.00 the last 10 games over the last 2 seasons. Davies is 6-0 against the money line after giving up 2 or more home runs last outing over the last 3 seasons and KC is 15-9 against the money line revenging a same season 3 game sweep at the hands of their opponents over the last 3 seasons. The Royals have been solid at home while the Sox have struggled on the road. We'll back the Royals at home showing great value.
Black Magic Sports
1 Unit on Atlanta Braves +133
The Braves will come out more hungry than the Dodgers after getting shut out by L.A. last night. Jair Jurrjens is just the starter who can get the Braves back in the win column Tuesday. Jurrjens is 8-4 featuring a 3.09 ERA in 2008. He’s 1-1 with a 1.71 ERA over his last 3 starts as well. Jurrjens owns a career 1.29 ERA against the Dodgers, while Chad Billingsley has a career 7.20 ERA when facing the Braves. Atlanta is 17-5 against the money line after having lost 6 or 7 of their last 8 games over the last 2 seasons. The Dodgers are 2-8 in home games after allowing 3 runs or less 2 straight games this season. Jurrjens is 11-2 vs. poor power teams - averaging 0.9 or less HR's/game over the last 2 seasons. Cash in with the Braves as the underdog.
Pupsnchalk Sports
Houston Comets vs. Phoenix Mercury
Play: Houston Comets
The Houston Comets come into today's game looking to keep their recent momentum going while the Phoenix Mercury are trying to regain theirs. The Mercury will host the Comets in a rare mid-week afternoon game.
The Mercury took all four in the season series last year en route to the WNBA championship. And after starting the season with championship hangover, dropping their first four games to start the season, the Mercury bounced back to win eight of the next eleven. That momentum was halted over the weekend with back to back losses to the Liberty and Sparks. The Mercury have struggled to live up to expectations at home all season going just 1-6 ats at home including 1-2 at home against teams above .500. They are just 1-9-1 ats in their last 11 home games.
They will face a resurgent Comets team who have won six of their last seven with the lone loss during the streak coming on the road without their leader Tina Thompson. Thompson will be in the lineup this afternoon and is coming off a 19 point outing againt the Monarchs. The Comets are 12-5 ats in their last 17 games as a road pup. They have brought the cash home for their backers on the road as well going 4-1 ats on the road against teams above .500 this season.Play on the Houston Comets for 1 unit.
DREW GORDON
Atlanta at LA DODGERS -135
Got to like the Dodgers at home behind the surging Chad Billingsley in this one, as we all know the Braves are hardly consistent on the road, and neither is their starter Jair Jurrjens.
Speaking of Jair Jurrjens, he had a nice 3-start run going from mid-to-late June, but he quickly fell back to Earth in his last one, allowing 4 runs on 8 hits over 7 innings in a loss to the Phillies. He's been far less consistent away from Turner, going 3-3 with a 3.35 ERA on the road this season. Jurjjens did beat the Dodgers in his only career start against them, but that one was in Atlanta, and I expect the Dodgers will get the best of him in their second crack at the young righty.
The real problem for the Braves is facing the red-hot Billingsley at Dodgers Stadium, where he's 3-0 with a 2.63 ERA over his last 4 starts there! 3 of his last 4 starts have been quality efforts, and at this point, he's clearly one of the more consistent arms on this staff. The fact Hiroki Kuroda completely shut down this Braves offense yesterday, tossing a 1-hitter, doesn't bode well for Atlanta tonight, as they face another surging righty in this one.
Finally, while neither offense is hitting the ball particularly well right now, there's no question you give the edge to the Dodgers, who at the very least have won 6 of their last 7 games (5 of those win on the road). Look for them to build off yesterday's shutout win, as the Braves continue to sputter at the plate with Billinglsey on the mound tonight. In the end, the Dodgers remember well their sweep at the hands of the Braves back in April... And now its time to return the favor, as the Dodgers take the middle game of this series tonight!
Take the LA Dodgers behind Billingsley over Atlanta and Jurrjens in this MLB match up.
2♦ LA DODGERS
TOM FREESE
Atlanta at Los Angeles
Atlanta is 22-4 UNDER their last 26 games as dogs of +110 to +150 and they are 12-4 UNDER vs. NL West teams. Starter Jair Jurrjens has allowed just 7 runs total in his last 4 starts. The Braves have gone UNDER in all 4 of those starts. Jurrlens is 11-5-1 UNDER on the year. Los Angeles is 19-7 UNDER their last 26 home games and they are 7-0 UNDER with Chad Billingsley vs. losing teams. Billingsley has allowed 6 runs total in his last 4 starts. 10* PLAY ON 'UNDER'
PlusLineSports Daily Baseball Selection
Cleveland Indians vs. Detroit Tigers
Detroit Tigers -1.5 +110
Jason Lowry
Tampa Bay Rays vs. New York Yankees
Play: Tampa Bay Rays
We are taking the Rays in this one, as they send their ace in Kazmir to the mound where he is 15-7 against the money line when playing against a team with a winning record over the last 2 seasons, and the Rays are 21-11 against the money line after a loss this season. The Rays are 15-9 against left handed starters this season, and Yankees starter Andy Pettitte has an ERA over 5.00 at home this season. Take the Rays!
JEFF BENTON
We will back All-Star stud Tim Lincecum and the Giants at Shea Stadium in New York.
I get that the Mets are surging in the N.L. East and riding a three-game winning streak. But there's just no way I'm passing up Lincecum at a plus price. The guy is 10-1 with a 2.49 ERA in 17 starts (15 of which the Giants have won), including a perfect 7-0 with a 1.87 ERA on the road. And after a two-start hiccup in interleague play against the Tigers and Royals, the right-hander has delivered back-to-back quality starts against the A's and Cubs, allowing just three runs on 12 hits with four walks and 19 strikeouts in 13 innings! That's 15 quality starts in 17 tries this year.
Tonight, Lincecum's facing a Mets lineup that, while swinging much hotter bats of late, is still batting just .258 at home this year, an average that drops to .248 against right-handers. Also, going back to June 22, New York has registered nine wins (in 17 games), and here are the names of the nine starters they have faced: Adam Eaton, Kyle Kendrick, Jamie Moyer, Mitchell Boggs, Todd Wellemeyer, Darrell Rasner, Dan Giese, Miguel Batista and Greg Reynolds that's a who's who all right! In fact, New York has faced just two bona fide aces in the last three weeks, and it lost both games to Felix Hernandez and the Mariners (5-2, and Hernandez got hurt in the fifth inning) and Andy Pettitte and the Yankees (3-2).
Finally, for whatever reason, the Giants (who have the worst home record in baseball) have been solid on the road of late, winning 13 of their last 19 on the highway. The Mets at home this year An uninspiring 22-18, including 5-7 in the last 12. Gotta back Lincecum and San Francisco in this one.
5♦ SAN FRANCISCO GIANTS
Scott Delaney
Tough call to make this morning at 4 a.m., when looking at the numbers and crunching them, but I have to side with the Mets over All-Star Tim Lincecum tonight. We're not going to list either starter, but let's just assume San Frans second-year right-hander is going to be on the hill. It won't matter, as the Giants come in off a series with their arch-rivals out of Los Angeles, and then came to the East Coast for a series with the Mets. And though they had a day off to adjust, they're still having to contend with an offense that has appeared to found a rhythm after hitting hit .346 with three homers and 23 runs in taking the last three games of a four-game series from NL East-leading Philadelphia.
I know New York played yesterday, but guys, it was an offensive display in a marathon game it held on to win. That's solid momentum to bring into a game that will feature arguably the best pitcher of the first half, out of the senior circuit. Let's not forget the Mets took two of three at San Francisco from June 2-4, so confidence will be brewing. And the kings of Queens are riding a three-game win streak right now, so that magical fourth is theirs for the taking tonight at Shea. Lay the low chalk here, as New York will get the best of the Giants and squeak by Lincecum and company.
1♦ METS