STEPHEN NOVER
Milwaukee Brewers @ St. Louis
PICK: St. Louis
Having lost the opener of this series to the Brewers, the Cardinals desperately need this game because they face CC Sabathia and Ben Sheets in the next couple of days.
Look for the Cardinals to get that victory today with Kyle Lohse on the mound. Lohse doesn't get the respect, but he's been sensational losing only twice in 32 starts since last July. Lohse has won his last nine decisions. The Cardinals are 11-1 in Lohse's last 12 starts. I have no problem laying $1.36 on Lohse tonight.
Former Cardinal Jeff Suppan goes for Milwaukee. He's been on the DL for the past 2 1/2 weeks due to an elbow injury. Prior to going on the DL, Suppan had allowed 15 earned runs, 23 hits and five walks during his last three starts spanning 14 innings. He has a 6.04 road ERA this season.
Don't look for the Brewers to have their one dependable reliever either. Closer Salomon Torres has pitched during the last three days, including going two innings last night.
The Parlay King
TAMPABAY DEVIL RAYS -1.5 + 125
DETRIOT TIGERS -1.5 + 140
SF GIANTS -1.5 + 175
Rocky Atkinson
San Diego @ Cincinnati
Play On: 1* San Diego
Cincinnati is 3-11 this year when playing on Tuesday. Cincinnati is scoring only 4.1 runs per game against right handed starters this year. Jake Peavy has a 2.66 ERA overall this year and is 2-1 with a 1.71 ERA his last 3 starts. Cueto has a 6.16 ERA his last 3 starts. San Diego is 5-2 at Cincinnati the last 3 years. Peavy is 5-0 with a 2.08 ERA overall vs Cincinnati since 1997. We'll recommend a small play on San Diego tonight!
Tony George
San Diego @ Cincinnati
Play: Padres
Always worth a serious look at an ace pitcher off a poor performance, and Jake Peavy for the Padres got lit up for 4 homers in a 1 run loss to St. Louis in his last mound appearance. Nothing like motivation for a pitcher with an ERA less than 3 on the year, but has had little run support when you look at his win/loss record, but that does not undermine his prowess on the hill.
Johnny Cueto takes the hill for the Reds, a rookie, with an ERA of over 6 in his last 3 starts, none of them impressive, and this guy gives up hits like crazy, so the Pads should get some run support for Peavy tonight. Although the Padres are not a good road team, I like their chances on the road tonight as a rare road favorite, and for good reason, better and motivated pitching!
Black Magic Sports
1 Unit on Chicago Cubs +102
Yusmeiro Petit takes the mound as a starter for only the second time all season for the Diamondbacks tonight. Chicago’s offense is too tough to be kept down for long, and after getting shut out last night you can bet the Cubs will be ready to get after Petit Tuesday. Chicago has surprisingly lost 4 of their last 5 games overall. This struggle ends tonight against the team that knocked them out of the playoffs last season. Jason Marquis has been at his best on the road, going 3-2 with a 3.38 ERA in 2008. Marquis’ lifetime 3.29 ERA in eight career starts against the Diamondbacks looks very promising heading in. The Cubs are 8-1 in their last 9 games vs. a starter with a WHIP less than 1.15. Cash in with the Cubs at nearly even money.
Dwayne Bryant
Los Angeles Dodgers at Colorado Rockies
Pick: Colorado Rockies -138
The Dodgers exploded for 16 runs last night in winning the series opener last night, 16-10. Runs will be much harder to come by tonight against Colorado's Ubaldo Jimenez. In 10 home starts this season, Jimenez owns a 2.80 ERA, 1.15 WHIP and .295 OOBP. Jimenez allowed just 5 earned runs in 12 1/3 innings (3.65 ERA) in his two career starts vs. LA at Coors Field; both were Colorado wins last season.
LA's Clayton Kershaw has a decent ERA on the season and on the road (4.34), bit his WHIP (1.66) and OOBP (.373) are high. That's because Kershaw has walked 12 batters in just 18 2/3 road innings, which is right on par with his overall ratio. None of Kershaw's four road starts have been Quality Starts, but 7 of Jimenez's 10 home starts have been. Kershaw has also struggled under the lights, posting a 5.95 ERA, 1.73 WHIP and .382 OOBP in his four starts at night.
LA is batting .253 (.319 OBP) and scoring 4.35 runs per game on the road vs. righty starters. Colorado is batting .315 (.389 OBP) and scoring 7 runs per game at home vs. lefty starters. The Dodgers may be hitting well lately (.293 BA, .365 OBP, 6.75 RPG in their last 5 vs. righty starters), but the Rockies have been even hotter (.344 BA, .392 OBP, 9.14 RPG vs. lefty starters).
Take Colorado
GINA
Milwaukee Brewers at St. Louis Cardinals
The Cardinals have lost five of the last six versus the Brewers, but have won five of its last 7 against them at home and will have Kyle Lohse on the hill. The right-hander s 3-3 with a 5.50 ERA in ten career appearances (9-starts) versus the Brewers and the Cardinals have won 11 of Lohse's last 12 starts, 6-0 in his last 6 at home. Milwaukee counters with Jeff Suppan. The right-hander has pitched well against St. Louis, 6-2 in 10 career starts against the Cardinals, but is 1-1 with a huge 9.64 ERA in his last three starts. Milwaukee has lost five of Suppan's last 7 starts away from home.
Go with the Cardinals with Kyle Lohse at the controls. Lohse has pitched impressively, 2-0 with a 1.71 ERA in his last three starts.
St. Louis Cardinals - 140
LARRY NESS
Pittsburgh Pirates @ Houston Astros
PICK: Houston Astros
The Pirates entered last night's game on a five-game losing streak but a seven-run 9th led to a 9-3 win at Houston. The nine runs matched the team's total in losing a four-game series at Colorado last week. The Pirates have been a notoriously bad road team in recent years, entering this season with a 121-203 (.373) mark from 2004-07. The win leaves Pittsburgh just 16-32 away from home this year (.333), a winning percentage that is even lower than the team's preceding four-year mark. Paul Maholm (6-6, 4.10 ERA) gets the start and while he's been the team's best pitcher in '08 (Pirates own a ML-worst 5.29 team ERA in '08), he's once again struggling on the road. Maholm had a 6.25 road ERA in '06 (team went 5-10), a 6.14 road ERA last year (team went 5-9) and takes a 5.10 road ERA in nine starts this year (team is 2-7) into this game. While Maholm beat the Astros earlier this year in Pittsburgh to move to 4-3 in eight career starts vs the Astros (team is 5-3), he's had no luck here at Minute Maid Park, going 0-3 with a 13.89 ERA in three starts! The Astros are going nowhere in the highly competitive NL Central (see the Cubs, Brewers and Cards) but they are worth s shot here vs Maholm. Jack Cassell gets the start for Houston, his first since late April. He debuted in the majors last year with the Padres, going 1-1 with a 3.97 ERA in six appearances (four starts). He opened this year with the Astros and despite two mediocre April starts (9.2 IP / 6 ERs / 5.59 ERA), the Astros did win both games. Cassell was just recently recalled from the minors (three days after Oswalt was placed on the DL) and while it's hard to make too strong of a case for him, he did get his first major league win against the Pirates, pitching six innings (eight hits and no runs) of a 3-0 win while with the Padres last September 17 in San Diego. This is more of a "go-against" play vs the Pirates and Maholm on the road. Take Houston.
Investment Playmakers
20* TWINS
Marco D'Angelo
CWS -1.5 (+110) vs TEX
OK I know I took one on the chin last night with the White Sox but the situation screams for me to pull the trigger once again tonight. Texas struggles against Lefties as they are only 11-19 on the year. More importantly they only average 4.4 runs per game vs lefties where as they average 5.5 overall so clearly they struggle against the southpaws. If that wasn't enough Texas sends Luis Mendoza to the mound and lets just say the Mendoza Line has been pretty high. In 6 starts his ERA is 8.31 on the road it's 9.64. Expect The White Sox to tee off on Mendoza tonight. TAKE THE WHITE SOX (-1.5 RUNS) as MARCO'S TRIPLE DIME MASSACRE PLAY and make them a TRIPLE DIME PLAY.
RON RAYMOND
5* MLB BEST BET WINNER
Seattle Mariners/Boston Red Sox Under 8.5
NELLY
Baltimore over Toronto
The Blue Jays are 9-17 against left-handed starters this season and Toronto is 5-16 in the last 21 road games. Shaun Marcum has fallen off his great early season pace for the Jays as Toronto has lost five of his last six starts. He still owns good overall numbers but they are not as strong on the road and he has received very little support from his offense. Garrett Olson is much better pitcher at home and the Orioles own a winning record behind him at Camden Yards. The home team has also won five straight in this series. Baltimore is ten games above .500 at home this season while Toronto is ten games below .500 on the road this season. The Blue Jays are hitting just .245 on the season against left-handers and Olson can pitch good enough for the win tonight.
Black Widow Sports
1* on Rangers/White Sox Over 9.5
Luis Mendoza (2-3, 6.28 ERA) will take the mound for the highest -scoring squad in the majors. The Rangers boast six starters that are hitting .280 or higher. Texas scores 5.5 runs per game in all games this year, but they also give up 5.8 runs per contest. The White Sox have been scoring 5.7 runs per game in their last 7 games and giving up a ridiculous 7.7 runs per game during the same time frame. The OVER is 22-7-1 in Rangers last 30 vs. American League Central. The OVER is 26-8 in White Sox last 34 games as a home favorite of -151 to -200. Take the OVER 9.5 runs.
Robert Ferringo
5-Unit Play. Take St. Louis (-135) over Milwaukee
Note: This is our Game of the Week.
I do not think that Jeff Suppan is OK and that is kind of at the crux of this play. Suppan is making his first start since a stint on the 15-day disabled list. However, he says that he's been pitching through pain in his shoulder since May. Who is to say if he's OK? St. Louis should be all over him regardless, seeing as the former Cardinals starter has no secrets when pitching against his former team. Further, Milwaukee won Game 1 and has C.C. and Sheets sitting in the kicker. They're in a great spot. And St. Louis knows they are in a rough one, putting all of the onus on getting this game tonight. This one is huge, and I think they will pull out all of the stops. The Brewers, on the other hand, may be more inclined to ease up, set their bullpen for the next two games, and try to walk out of St. Louis with a 3-1 series win. Further, the Brewers, a notoriously poor road team, has won four straight away from home. Teams playing in their fifth road game during such a streak this year are just 5-10. Kyle Lohse has been an ace for much of the year and has been dynamite at home (6-1, 2.37 ERA), while Suppan is just 3-5 with a 6.04 road ERA on the season. St. Louis is 11-1 in Lohse's last 12 starts and 5-2 in the last seven at home against Milwaukee. I think they bounceback nicely and we collect on a small price.
3-Unit Play. Take ‘Over’ 9.5 Minnesota at New York Yankees
2-Unit Play. Take Minnesota (+120) over New York Yankees
Still working the Twins in this series and looking for a lot o' runs today. We have Tim McClelland behind the dish and he has a notoriously small zone. Mix in the fact that neither one of these arms are exactly lockdown candidates and we should be in business. The Twins have been an 'over' machine and they always swing better against righties, since most of Minny's power comes from the left-hand side. Darrell Rasner is a nibbler, and if McClelland isn't giving him the corners then he'll be in trouble. The Yankees seem to have their heads (and bats) out of their asses, so look for at least a 4-spot from them as well.
1.5-Unit Play. Take Philadelphia (+1.5, -145) over New York Mets
1-Unit Play. Take Philadelphia (+155) over New York Mets
I wish I had a nickel for every time the Mets let down their fans in a situation just like this. They are playing at home. They have a ton of momentum. First place is on the line. They have their ace on the hill and have a severe pitching mismatch. Their rival, the Phillies, have lost two of three in Florida before coming to Shea. It's after an off day, which has been money for the Mets over the last three years. Everything - I mean everything - sets up for the Mets. And that's the problem. It's too perfect. We're getting good odds on a Philly team that has owned New York over the last couple years. And this is the perfect situation where everyone expects the Mets to sweep into first place. Well, I know better. Look for seven shutout from Johan and then a Mets bullpen meltdown to give the Phillies the win.
1.5-Unit Play. Take Boston (-160) over Seattle
The Red Sox know knuckleballs and, even though R.A. Dickey has had some nice outings and has a generous ump behind the plate, I think that Boston gets all over him today. The Sox are patient and they are a veteran hitting team. The knuckleball is not going to phase them. On the flip side, Dice-K just wins when he takes the hill for Beantown. They are 19-7 in his last 26 starts and 10-1 in his starts against a team with a losing record.
1.5-Unit Play. Take Tampa Bay (-150) over Oakland
Note: If you haven't already made this play, please back it down to a 1-Unit selection.
I like the Rays - if they are getting -160 or less at home they are almost an automatic pick - but the number is dropping more than it should. It's a solid situation with a great home team facing what looks like a languid Oakland crew. But bump it down to a 1-Unit pick.
1.5-Unit Play. Take Chicago White Sox (-165) over Texas
1-Unit Play. Take Chicago White Sox (-1.5, +120) over Texas
Mark Buehrle has slowly but surely put together a nice little season and I think he's going to have the Rangers on their toes today. Texas has struggled a bit against lefties, going just 5-11 against southpaws overall recently and 16-35 against lefties on the road over the last couple years. The White Sox took a gut shot on Monday but I see them rallying back nicely. They feel the heat in their division and Ozzie will have them focused and ready to tool on that Rangers bullpen.
1-Unit Play. Take Los Angeles Angels (-1.5, +110) over Cleveland
Matt Ginter has a career ERA of nearly 9.00 against the Angels and Jared Weaver is always on his game in front of the home faithful. The Angels had a letdown yesterday after their big sweep over Boston, but I expect them to get it straight today and get all over the Indians. This play should rate much higher given the system, situation, and pitching mismatch. However, the Indians are playing well and we're just playing the numbers and looking for a small cash.
1-Unit Play. Take Chicago Cubs (+100) over Arizona
Cubs aren't going to get swept in the desert since they are the better team than the D-Backs. I ignored my system yesterday and went with Chicago, like a fool, but we're going to get some of that cheddar back behind Jason Marquis. He's been very, very good to us this year and I think he'll come through again today over a spot starters. I love Petit. But if he can't go seven innings that's going to get us into that weak D-Backs pen.
1-Unit Play. Take 'Over' 9.5 Pittsburgh at Houston
Just another stellar pitching matchup in Houston, with lefty Paul Maholm (1-5, 5.10 ERA) on the hill for the Pirates and being countered by the immortal Jack Cassel (6.28 ERA anywhere). We have Jim Reynolds behind the dish and the 'over' is 14-4 in his 18 games this year. He doesn't have an overly tight zone, but it should be enough for two bad starters and two weak bullpens to get 'over'.
Wunderdog
Atlanta at Florida
Pick: 4 units on Florida +102
Not sure if this Atlanta team with a road record of 16-32 has the credentials to ever be favored on the road. So far the oddsmakers haven't agreed with us, but the results have. Atlanta has been favored on the road 26 times already this season, and has put together a record of 8-18 in those 26 games. It is hard not to see the value in it for us. Meanwhile Florida has maintained the 50% mark as a home dog, which automatically puts them in the plus column in this situation. Florida has also been a good bounce-back team this season winning game two in six of eight tries after losing the series opener at home. We will ride the value and the Marlins here