Sean Higgs Total Blowout
Atlanta Braves vs. Florida Marlins
Pick: Over
Charlie Morton of the Braves comes in sporting a 8.10 era giving up 12 earned in 13 innings. The Marlins are coming off an extremely poor showing last night. The Fish have too many bats to let that happen again. The over is 4-1-1 the last 6 between these two.
3Daily Winners
San Diego Padres vs. Cincinnati Reds
Play: San Diego Padres
Everyone knows the Padres are pathetic. Seeing them favored on the road is an eye opener, even with Jake Peavy pitching. Consider this - Peavy is 5-0 against Cincinnati with 2.08 ERA. After allowing no runs in consecutive starts, Peavy gave four runs last time out. In the last two years, he and San Diego are 5-1 after such an occurance. With the Reds 1-12 against the money line vs. an NL starting pitcher whose ERA is 2.70 or better over the last 2 seasons, punch the Padres ticket.
Pupsnchalk Sports
Washington Nationals vs. San Francisco Giants
Play: Washington Nationals
The Washington Nationals remember how the San Francisco Giants came into Nationals Park and took all four games of their four game series last month. They will look to avenge that sweep tonight as the two begin a three game set in San Francisco.
Jason Bergmann will get the start for the Nats and he comes into tonight's game with a record of just 1-6. His ERA of 4.03 does not seem that impressive, but consider the fact that the national league average is around 4.26 for starting pitchers this season, so Bergmann has actually pitched above average even if his record does not suggest so. He has been stellar of late but has not recieved adequate run support. He is 0-1 in his last three starts with an ERA of 2.25. He had possibly his worst performance of the season against the Giants giving up 10 hits and 5 earned runs lasting only three innings in the Giants 10-1 win last month. We expect him to rebound this evening however and pitch more according to form against a Giants team who is batting just .205 in their last 10 games against right handers.
Even though Barry Zito has been better of late, he still must prove himself at home where he is just 1-8 on the season with a 6.66 ERA. The Giants have dropped nine of Zito's ten home starts this season. The Giants are also just 3-13 in Zito's last 16 home starts. The Nats bats could find success against Zito this evening as they are hitting .379 against southpaws the last 10 games. The Nats come into this game with confidence having taken two of three from their division rivals the Atlanta Braves. Zito and the Giants have been known to struggle in this role going just 4-17 in Zito's last 21 starts following a team loss in their previous game.Play on the Washington Nationals for 1 unit.
Joseph D'Amico
Boston Red Sox vs. Seattle Mariners
Play: Boston Red Sox
Seattle is amongst the worst teams in baseball with e record of 38-61. Because the M's are in the same division with the high flying first place Angel's ,they are 22 games out of 1st place. The Mariner's come into this game losing three in a row. It really doesn't matter whether Seattle is at home or on the road ,because they are equally bad no matter where they play.The Mariner's happen to be at home today ,where they have a record of 20-30. Pitching for Seattle today is right-hander Dickey,who is 2-4 overall this season. In the current situation (home/away day/night) Dickey is 0-3 with a 4.55 ERA. The Boston Red Sox are as good as any team in baseball at 58-40. Boston happens to be in the very competitive A.L. East division. The Red Sox are currently sandwiched between the 1st place Devil Ray's and the 3rd place Yankee's. On the mound for Boston today is ace right-hander Matsuzaka who is 10-1 on the season including a whopping 4-0 road record. Over his last three starts ,Matsuzaka is 1-0 with a 0.49 ERA. Boston is amongst the best hitting teams in the A.L. batting over .281 as a team. The Red Sox are averaging over 5.02 RPG mainly due to their 111 team home run's. The Mariner's are near the bottom of the American League barrel offensively. As a team ,Seattle has a batting average of just .255 which has a direct result of their lowly 3.94 RPG average. Lay the big wood ,play the Red Sox ,and make your money.
Jeff Scott Sports
Detroit -119 over KANSAS CITY 3 UNIT PLAY
The Tigers are 10-1 in their last 11 games as a road favorite and 18-5 in Rogers' last 23 starts as a favorite of -110 to -150, while the 9-24 in their last 33 home games with the total set at 9.0-10.5 and 0-8 in Davies' last 8 home starts with the total set at 9.0-10.5. After starting the season with a 4-4 mark and a 6.66 ERA, Kenny Rogers has come back to go 3-2 with a 3.12 ERA in his last 10 starts, including a 2-1 mark with a 2.88 ERA in his last 5 road starts. Kenny is also 13-9 with a 4.05 ERA since 1997 vs the Royals. It has been the opposite for Kyle Davies, as he started out 3-0 with a 1.45 ERA in his first 4 starts of the year, but since then he has gone 0-1 with a 6.03 ERA in his last 5 starts. Kyle is 1-1 with a 4.60 ERA at home, allowing teams a .388 OBP, while posting a 1.72 WHIP. Way too many baseruners to give this hot hitting Detroit team. The Tigers come in hitting .300 and scoring 8.7 rpg in their last 10 games, plus they have put up 8.8 rpg since the break and they hit .290 and score 5.5 rpg during their night games this year. That is one hot offense. The Royals offense has been better of late, putting up 5.1 rpg in their last 8, but this team still averages just 4.3 rpg at home and 4.1 rpg within the division. Detroit clearly has the pitching and offensive edges in this one, plus they have gone 16-6 in the last 22 meetings at KC and KC is 4-13 in game 2 of a series off a loss. The Royals took the 1st 6 in this series but that was when the Tigers sucked and the Royals were surprisingly good, now things are different and the Tigers showed how much better than the Royals they are with a big 19-4 win last night. It won't be that easy tonight but they will still pick up a nice win and continue their climb back.
2 UNIT PLAYS
HOUSTON/ Pittsburgh Over 9.5
The Over is 37-14-3 in Pirates last 54 road games and 40-16-3 in Pirates last 59 games as a road underdog, while the Over is 9-4 in Astros last 13 home games vs. a team with a losing record, plus the Over is 35-17-4 in Reynolds' last 56 games behind home plate and 5-1 in his last 6 games behind home plate vs. Pittsburgh. Last night there were just too many overwhelming stats that pointed to the over and it made the play look too easy. Well if Houston's pen hadn't given up 7 runs in the ninth my thought process would have been dead on. Tonight the stats aren't so lopsided and that makes me feel better. Paul Maholm has not pitched that bad with a 4.10 ERA overall, but he does have a 5.10 ERA on the road, with his road starts averaging 9.6 rpg. Paul has a 5.55 ERA in 8 career starts vs the 'Stros, including a 13.88 ERA in his 3 trips to Minutemaid Park with tose 3 trips averaging 10.3 rpg. Jack Cassell has 2 starts for Houston this year and has a 5.58 ERA in those starts. He will be facing a Pittsburgh team that scores 5.1 rpg on the road and they have put up 5.1 rpg in their last 7 games.Pittsburgh road games have averaged 11.6 rpg, while their last 7 games have averaged 12.7 rpg. Houston offense has been sputtering of late as they have put just 2.9 rpg on the board in thier last 7 games, but they have hit Paul well in his career and they do hit .277 and score 4.5 rpg at home. This game also features a Pitt pen that has a 5.36 ERA on the road and a Houston pen that has a 5.11 ERA at home. I have no doubt that both teams will be able to put at least 5 runs on the board and that should easily give us a winner on the Over.
ST LOUIS -135 over Milwaukee
The Brewers are 12-28 in their last 40 games as a road underdog of +110 to +150 and 1-8 in Suppans last 9 road starts vs. a team with a winning record, while the Cardinals are 23-10 in their last 33 during game 2 of a series and 11-1 in Lohses last 12 starts. Jeff Suppan comes into ths game struggling as he has a 1-2 record with a 10.34 ERA in his last 4 starts. Jeff also has struggled on the road this year, going 3-5 with a 6.04 ERA, including an 0-1 mark with a 7.36 ERA in his last 2 starts away from home. Jeff has also allowed teams a .385 OBP and he has a 1.73 WHIP in his road starts this year. Kyle Lohse has not been struggling this year, as he is 12-2 with a 3.35 ERA overall, including a 6-1 mark with a 2.73 ERA at home and an 8-0 mark with a 2.20 ERA at night. Kyle has really looked sharp in his last 4 starts, posting a 3-0 record with a 1.29 ERA. In Kyle's home starts he has allowed teams a .269 OBP and has a 1.04 WHIP. The Brewers offense hit's just .244 and scores 4.5 rpg vs righty starters on the year, plus they score just 4.6 rog on the road and 4.2 rpg at night. The St Louis offense has been on fire lately, as they come in scoring 7.9 rpg over their last 7 games, including 6.6 rpg on their current homestand. T^he Cards hit righty starters pretty well as they score 5 rpg and hit .280 vs them on the year. The Cards don't score that well at home overall, but I do see them getting their fair share vs a struggling Suppan tonight. The Cards lost last night's game and that makes this game an important one as they know they face CC and Sheets in the next 2 games. St louis will bounce back tonight.
1 UNIT PLAY
Toronto/ Baltimore Over 9
The Over is 10-1-1 in Blue Jays last 12 during game 2 of a series and 6-1-1 in Marcums last 8 starts vs. American League East, while the Over is 17-5-1 in Orioles last 23 games as an underdog and 10-2 in Orioles last 12 home games with the total set at 9.0-10.5, plus the Over is 13-1 in the last 14 meetings. This has been a trully high scoring series of late with 13 of the last 14 in this series scoring 9 or more runs, with the average rpg scored being 12.4 rpg, including 12.1 rpg in the last 6 meetings in Baltimore. Shawn Marcum has been good for the Jays this year with a 2.65 ERA overall, but in his 3 career starts in Camden Yards he has a 7.91 ERA, with those 3 games averaging 12.7 rpg. He will be facing an O's offense that has scored 5.4 rpg in their last 11 and 6.4 rpg on their current homestand. Baltimore has also scored 5.9 rpg vs Toronto pitching this year, and 5.3 rpg at home overall. The Jays haven't hit lefties all that well this year, but they did tag Garret Olsen for 7 run in 3.2 innings of work, 13 days ago. Garret has 2 lifetime starts vs the Jay's and has given up 12 ER on 13 hits and 8 walks in just 6.2 innings of work. Overall Garrett has not pitched that well this year with his ERA being 5.79 overall, 4.76 at home and 6.64 at night. Garrett has really been awfull in his last 7 starts, posting an 8.23 ERA over that stretch, with those games averaging 12.1 rpg, plus his home starts this year have averaged 10.6 rpg, while his night starts have averaged 10.4 rpg. All I need is 4 runs from each team to at least get the push and with the way both teams score vs one another, i don't see that as being a problem. I'll call for about 13 runs in this one.
Vernon Croy Smash of the Night
Boston Red Sox vs. Seattle Mariners
Pick: Boston Red Sox
This pick falls into one of my top MLB systems and the Red Sox have the superior pitcher on the mound tonight. Daisuke Matsuzaka (10-1, 2.65 ERA) has pitched solid on the road this season with an ERA of just 2.15 over 7 starts allowing just 20 hits over 37.7 innings and he has also pitched solid over his last 3 starts with an ERA of just 0.49. The Red Sox are hitting .300 as a team over their last 7 games while averaging 6.1 rpg and Seattle is just 9-26 this season when the posted total is 9 to 9.5. Seattle is just 28-42 this season when facing a right hand starter and the Red Sox are 32-12 when playing against a team that has a losing record. Take Boston as my MLB Smash of the Night.
Steve Merril
Philadelphia Phillies vs. New York Mets
Pick: Under
PLAYERS ADVANTAGE
ANAHEIM ANGELS vs Cleveland Indians
2* (Top Play) OVER
The Angels have a well-deserved reputation as a lower-scoring team. However, this is giving us good value in a situation like this. What we mean by a “situation like this” is that there are times where a match-up is set up beautifully for an offensive explosion and that is precisely what the case is with the Angels here on Tuesday. Keep in mind that what is ‘flying under the radar’ about Los Angeles right now is that the Angels have scored 90 runs in their 16 games in the month of July. Of course that’s an average of over 5.5 runs per game and we’re only looking at a total of 9 on this game. The Angels have been particularly impressive at home in the month of July as they’ve scored 54 runs in the nine games for an average of six runs per game at Angels Stadium in Anaheim. They should crush the ball tonight. Why? Matt Ginter is on the hill for Cleveland tonight. Yes, the numbers from his first start look impressive but note that this was his first major league action since 2005. Ginter was also helped tremendously because the Indians offense gave him a lot of run support early. It’s much easier to pitch well on the mound when your teammates have put up crooked numbers on the scoreboard in a couple of the innings. That was the case for Ginter against the Rays on July 12th. Even with the big lead, and the Rays starting to take more of a “free swinging” approach at the plate, Ginter was still not that impressive. He gave up a lot of hard hit balls and he also got himself into a number of jams. Will facing the Angels help in this regard? Not at all! After a three year hiatus from the bigs Anaheim is one of the last places he wanted to visit. Ginter has been crushed by the Angels in his short career and Los Angeles will have a number of hitters in their lineup with experience against him tonight. Bad news for Mr. Ginter as the Angels will be hungry to bounce back from last night’s 5-2 loss. Ginter is opposed by Jered Weaver of the Angels who certainly has some impressive numbers on the season. However, this is not a good spot for Weaver as he is a ‘rhythm pitcher’ and this is his first start in almost two weeks. That does not bode well for him at all and facing a red-hot Indians lineup isn’t going to help matters either. Even though Cleveland has been ravaged by injuries they have accomplished some remarkable numbers during their recent streak. The Indians have also fared quite well against Weaver as he has just a 5.09 ERA against them in his career. Cleveland comes into tonight’s game having won 7 of their last 8 games and they’ve scored 59 runs in their last 9 games. With the Tribe averaging over 6.5 runs per game and the Angels offense on fire this month this game should soar over the total. Let’s not forget that the Angels bullpen has not been as strong as usual this season and the Indians bullpen is arguably the worst in all of baseball. This is a slugfest waiting to happen! Play OVER the total in the Los Angeles Angels game as a Top Play selection.
Ross Benjamin 15* NL GOW
Milwaukee @ St. Louis
Play: St. Louis -130 (15*)
The St. Louis starter Kyle Lohse enters the game 4-0 in his last 4 team starts with an excellent 1.29 ERA and very good 1.11 WHIP. In 12 starts at home this season Lohse has posted a stellar 2.73 ERA and 1.04 WHIP. His adversary Jeff Suppan enters the game in horrible form posting a 10.66 ERA and whopping 2.43 WHIP over his last 4 starts. In 10 starts on the road this season Suppan has posted a lofty 6.04 ERA and 1.73 WHIP. The Cardinals are 14-1 this season in Game 2 of a series following a loss. The Cardinals are hitting a red hot .333 as a team versus right-handed pitching over their last 10 games. St. Louis is a very profitable 11-1 in their last 12 when Kyle Lohse is their starting pitcher. As hot as the Brewers currently are they are still just 14-21 on the road this season versus a right-handed starting pitcher. Play on the St. Louis Cardinals as my MLB 15* National League Game of the Week.
Jeffersonsports
San Diego-110
Colorado-138
St. Louis-138
KELSO
High Rollers Club
10 unit - Yankees
5 unit - Cubs
4 unit - Tigers
3 unit - Braves
The Hitman Guaranteed Selections
5000 LARGE PERFECT DIAMOND BLOWOUT WINNER
NY Yankees w/Rasner -128
5000 LARGE PERFECT DIAMOND TOTALS WINNER
Atlanta and Florida OVER 10
GREG SHAKER
San Diego Padres at Cincinnati Reds
2 Units Padres -113
Root
Chairman - Nationals
Milionaire - Tigers
Money Maker - Blue Jays
Scott Delaney
We're going to stick with the Red Sox as our comp play, but tonight we're taking them on the Run Line. They went into Seattle last night and blanked the Mariners, 4-0, and with Daisuke Matsuzaka pitching tonight, I don't see Seattle having much more success than last night. Boston, which should now be sleepful in Seattle after being there a couple days, will come to life at the plate, keeping pace with arch-rival New York. While the Yanks are making headlines with their winning streak, the Red Sox can't afford to let up in the AL East, especially since the Devil Rays are back to their winning ways. The Mariners have lost three straight and nine of 12 to increase its AL West deficit to 22 games, and has the daunting task of facing Dice K, who has given up just one run in 23-1/3 innings over his last four starts. Look for a fifth dominating performance by the Japanese right-hander, as the BoSox roll.
2♦ BOSTON RED SOX -1.5 RL