Dave Malinsky
St. Louis Cardinals @ Atlanta Braves
PICK: 4* ST. LOUIS/ATLANTA Over
It has been a pair of no-sweat wins with 4* Atlanta Over tickets the last two days, and with many of the same elements in play, we will absolutely put that money on the counter again. The Braves are now on a run in which their last 11 games have seen 136 runs hit the board (12.4 per outing), with nine of those games reaching double figures. Now we have another hot night with vulnerable starters, and that means plenty of opportunities for this one to break open.
The Atlanta bullpen is a mess right now, not just in terms of the quality of performances, but also in how much of the recent load they have had to carry - the starters have only contributed 9.1 innings over the last three games. With Jorge Campillo clearly a wild card tonight, it could be more of the same. Campillo is being brought back two days after Sunday’s rain-shortened stint at Philadelphia, but note that he had already thrown 28 pitches before that game went into a delay. That will cause some rhythm issues for him early, as well as fatigue later, as is the fact that he has not worked from this mound since July 2nd, an ugly outing in a loss to the Phillies. And if he does run into trouble the options for Bobby Cox are not good, with key middle reliever Gary Bennett burned out off of 2.1 innings last night, and few fresh arms with any positive form.
The Braves continue to hit and score, however, even without Chipper Jones and Brian McCann. Although they did not maximize their opportunities last night they had 10 hits, the fifth straight game that they have reached double figures, and they can be counted on to produce vs. Todd Wellemeyer. We cashed a 4* ticket with Milwaukee against Wellemeyer and the Cardinals in his last start, noting the signs of fatigue that could be expected from a former reliever at this time of the season, and while he only allowed two runs over five innings in that game he played with fire the entire way - 10 of the 24 batters he faced reached via either a hit or a walk, and he issued five free passes vs. only two strikeouts. In July he has labored to a 6.51 tune over 27.2 innings, and note his count of 35 hits vs. 11 strikeouts, after it had been 77 vs. 67 entering the month. There is little reason to fear any kind of turnaround from him here, and an inconsistent Cardinal bullpen (Izzie the closer again?) leaves the door open in the latter innings as well.
SportsKingz
ANGELS -105
DETROIT -120
MILWAUKEE -120
YANKEES -165
COLORADO -125
The Duke's Sports
*Best Bet* Minnesota (-130) for 3 Units
The Twins are playing extremely well at home (19-7 run) and control a 4-0 run in this series. With a favorable pitching matchup, we like our chances here. The Twins' Glen Perkins is coming off a sluggish outing vs NYY but should bounce back here; after all, he has thrown well at home for most of the season and has a sharp bullpen (1.92 ERA @ home) to fall back on. Perkins has allowed just 3 ER or less in 8 of last 9 starts. On the other hand, a tough task awaits for the 'Sox Clayton Richard who will make his first road start after getting hit hard last Wednesday vs Texas, yet the ChiSox rallied behind him to win. Tonight, however, we'll look for limited run support for him, and the ChiSox' bullpen should continue their sluggishness (6.82 ERA last 10). The White Sox are just 10-17 as a road dog in this price range and should fall to the home-strong Twins.
Los Angeles Angels (+105) for 2 Units
The Angels flourish on the road following a win (24-10) and we'll take our chances with John Lackey on the hill. Lackey, although he's had a rough time this month, is the ultimate competitor and should rise to the occasion with another strong outing vs Boston. He pitched well in his last outing vs Boston. And we do know that Lackey has had loads of trouble vs Boston in the past; however, again, he is extremely competitive and a big game pitcher and understands the importance of preparation and the significance of this game. Moreover, the Angels' bullpen remains strong (2.90 ERA last 10). On the other hand, Clay Buchholz (2-5 5.81 ERA) has not exhibited the control to strike fear into a heating up Angels' lineup. We'll roll with the Angels.
Brandon Lang
10 Dime Tigers
10 Dime Mets
10 Dime Twins
5 Dime Dodgers
5 Dime Blue Jays
FREE Royals
Dwayne Bryant
Arizona Diamondbacks at San Diego Padres
Pick: Arizona +117
San Diego's Chris Young hasn't pitched since being hit in the face by a line drive off the bat of St. Louis' Albert Pujols on May 21, leaving the right-hander with a broken nose and fractured skull. After several simulated games and two rehab starts with Class-A Lake Elsinore, Young makes his first MLB start since the injury.
Young is 1-3 with a 5.08 ERA in seven career starts versus Arizona. San Diego has lost all five of Young's starts against Arizona in 2007-08. Despite pitching very well at home (2.57 ERA), the Padres are just 2-3 in Young's home starts. That's because the Padres are only averaging 2.6 runs per game in Young's home starts this season. Young has struggled in his seven starts under the lights, posting a 5.66 ERA, 1.69 WHIP and .364 OOBP while getting just 2.7 runs per game in support.
Arizona's Doug Davis is 0-2 with a 5.25 ERA in four starts in July after going 1-0 with a 2.45 ERA in his previous four outings. But this appears to be a great spot for Davis to get back on track. He faced San Diego once this season and pitched well (8 IP, 7 H, 3 ER, 7 K, 1 BB) despite getting the loss. Before that start, Davis' team had won seven straight in his starts against the Padres. In fact, Davis has made five straight (and 7-of-8) Quality Starts against San Diego. With San Diego batting .226 and scoring just 3.16 runs per game at home vs. lefties, Davis' success against the Padres should continue tonight.
Arizona is 6-1 in their last 7 games following a loss, 5-1 in their last 6 games vs. a starter with a WHIP greater than 1.30, and 5-1 in their last 6 when their opponent scored 5 runs or more in their previous game. San Diego is 2-10 in their last 12 games as a home favorite, 1-7 in Young's last 8 starts as a favorite of -110 to -150, and 1-9 in Young's last 10 starts vs. a team with a winning record.
Take Arizona
SAPKOWSKI
Best Bet
Colorado
Premium
Minnesota
Free
NY Yankees
Toronto
STAN SHARP'S NL REVENGE BIG BET OF THE MONTH
MIL (-125) vs CHC
Stan is Betting the MILWAUKEE today. Stan notes that Milwaukee is 14-6 with Ben Sheets on the mound and Zambrano of the Cubs is just .500 on the road. Expect Milwaukee to get it's revenge tonight. TAKE MILWAUKEE as STAN'S NL REVENGE BIG BET OF THE MONTH and make them a DOUBLE DIME PLAY.
Rocky Atkinson
Chicago White Sox @ Minnesota
Play: 1* Minnesota -125
Chicago White Sox are 3-11 this year on artificial turf. Minnesota is 30-18 against division opponents this year.Minnesota is 42-29 at night this season.White Sox are scoring only 4.2 runs per game on the road and 4.6 runs per game against left handed starters this season.Minnesota bullpen has been awesome with a 1.92 ERA at home this year. Richard has a 9.00 ERA in his 1 game pitched this year. Perkins is 7-3 overall, 4-2 at home and 2-1 with a 3.37 ERA his last 3 starts.Minnesota is 3-0 at home vs White Sox this year.We'll recommend a small play on Minnesota tonight!
Black Magic Sports
1 Unit on Philadelphia Phillies -149
Brett Myers should be able to find his groove tonight against a terrible Washington team scoring just 3.5 runs per game at home this season. Myers has allowed 3 earned runs or less in each of his last three starts against the Nationals. Collin Balester is 0-2 with an atrocious 7.04 ERA through his last three starts for Washington. The Phillies are 41-15 after allowing 8 runs or more 2 straight games since 1997. Washington is 4-19 after scoring 1 run or less this season. The Nationals are just 6-24 after playing 4 or more consecutive road games this season.
Stephen Nover
Los Angeles Angels @ Boston Red Sox
PICK: Boston Red Sox -115
REASON FOR PICK: There's been a lot of early movement on this game and the marketplace has it right. The Red Sox are the play here, not the Angels.
On the surface, it may seem like the Angels have a pitching edge with John Lackey against Clay Buchholz. But Lackey is in terrible form and Buchholz pitches much better at Fenway Park where he's 2-1 with a 2.42 ERA.
Boston's best bullpen arms are rested and ready, too. Let's also keep in mind the Red Sox are a strong 37-14 at home this year.
Lackey has a 7.30 ERA in his last four starts, yielding 20 earned runs and 35 hits in 23 2/3 innings during this span. He's having trouble getting his breaking ball over and problems locating his fastball.
Manny Ramirez has a career batting average above .500 versus Lackey. Other Red Sox hit Lackey well, too. David Ortiz and Dustin Pedroia are batting more than .400 against Lackey, while J.D. Drew, Kevin Youkilis and Alex Cora are hitting above .300 versus Lackey.
Career-wise, Lackey is 2-6 against the Red Sox with a 6.01 ERA
John Ryan
Cincinnati Reds at Houston Astros
Prediction: Houston Astros
Ai Simulator 3* graded play on the Astros ? I am now back up to speed after a wonderful week long break so expect my complete standard of extensive research with every premium card. This play is essentially a play against starter gem as Bronson Arroyo is not in a good spot for a win. He is just 6-19 (-14.7 Units) against the money line in road games when playing against a team with a losing record over the last 3 seasons; 2-10 (-9.0 Units) against the money line in road games when playing against a team with a losing record in the second half of the season over the last 3 seasons. Supporting this graded play is a system that has gone 75-26 for 74% making 38.7 units since 1997. Play against road teams that are poor hitting teams batting <=.250 and is now facing a decent NL starting pitcher sporting an ERA=3.70 to 4.20 and is a cold hitting team batting .240 or worse over their last 10 games. Since 1997, Arroyo is just 4-15 losing 13.4 units when the game is lined between +125 and -125. Now, what adds to the value and opportunity for this play is the simple fact that Arroyo has been a hot pitcher. Arroyo has won five straight games since he suffered the worst outing of his career on June 24 at Toronto. In his last start, he beat the Padres with seven solid innings, allowing just three runs on four hits with no walks and seven strikeouts. Through his last five starts, Arroyo is 5-0 with a 3.19 ERA. He last faced the Astros on April 23 when he gave up eight runs on 10 hits with a walk and five strikeouts in 3 2/3 innings of a losing effort. The public sees this as well and acts on those results believing that it will certainly occur again tonight. One example of why the public loses money over time as they are almost always backing plays aggressively on teams/players that are near their peak performance run. It brings to light the fact that if you play against -250 favorites you will have made profits in 12 straight years. Take Houston
Wunderdog
New York at Florida
3 units Florida +119
While Oliver Perez was the Mets stopper on the road last season compiling an 8-4 mark, it has been a different story this season, where they stand at 5-6 in his road starts. There is no place like home for Scott Olsen, where the Marlins have been 8-4 in his 12 home starts while he has put up a sparkling 3.12 ERA. Florida has shown signs of heating up winning three of four with two of those wins were in Chicago where no one has been beating the Cubs. The Mets have been a hot team, but are showing signs of dropping off after losing two of their last three. We will back the Marlins as a divisional home dog here.
Chicago at Milwaukee
3 units Milwaukee -1.5 runs +171
The Brewers and the Cubs square off in game 2 in Milwaukee tonight. The Brewers have put some heat on the Cubs as they are just two games back. The Brew Crew got there with the help of a 37-19 run in their last 56 games. The Cubs meanwhile, have settled back to just 17-19 in their last 36 games. A healthy Ben Sheets has allowed two runs or less in nine of his last 12 starts. Carlos Zambrano has also pitched well, but of the Cubs three losses in his home starts, two came at the hands of the Brewers, and he has only led the Cubs to a 5-4 road mark. The Cubs are just 7-13 in their last 20 on the road and 8-14 on the season when taking to the road against winning teams. Overall the Cubs have a 4-5 mark against winning teams with Zambrano on the hill, and just 1-3 on the road with Zambrano carrying a hefty 5.68 ERA in those games. The Brewers win this one comfortably, so we will opt for the runline value here.
Seattle at Texas
3 units Texas -1.5 runs +128
No one expected the Rangers to go this deep into the season above .500 and hanging in wildcard contention. They have done it by simply outscoring teams, especially at home, and especially against RHP. The Rangers have struggled against southpaws, where they are just 11-22, but against the righties Texas has been 43-30. The Rangers have exploded for 159 runs in their last 23 home games or nearly seven a game. This is a Seattle team that is just 5-13 over their last 18 games. In their last 52 losses they have lost by two or more runs in 39 of them or 75% of the time. There is lots of value with the high-scoring Rangers on the runline.
CASH & PROFIT EXPERTS
DETROIT TIGERS vs CLEVELAND INDIANS
Play: CLEVELAND INDIANS +110
Tony Karpinski
St Louis Cardinals vs. Atlanta Braves
Play: St Louis Cardinals
Atlanta is at home and starts Campillo on Tuesday on the mound. So many injuries with the Braves and the Cards have a huge offensive advantage as they proved that last night. St. Louis becomes LIVE DOG in here.. Play on the CARDINALS
Info Plays
3* on Toronto Blue Jays -145
Play On - All favorites with a money line of -150 or more (TORONTO) - below average hitting team (AVG <=.265) against a good starting pitcher (ERA <=4.20) -AL, in the second half of the season. This is a 70-16 ML System hitting 81.4% since 1997 in favor of Roy Halladay and the Blue Jays. Halladay is 82-39 vs. AL teams scoring 4.7 or less runs/game on the season since 1997. Tampa Bay is 4-21 in road games after scoring 1 run or less over the last 2 seasons. Toronto is 15-4 in July home games over the last two seasons. Bet the Blue Jays at home behind Halladay.