PlusLineSports Daily Baseball Pick
Baltimore vs NYY
NYY -1.5 +115
Larry Ness
New York Mets @ Florida Marlins
PICK: New York Mets
The Marlins rallied for six runs last night in the eighth inning, to beat the Mets 7-3. It marked the team's 31st comeback win (an NL high) and brought them to with one game of the Mets, who lead the NL East (the Phillies are in second-place, a half-game back of the Mets). The Marlins just don't seem to be "going away," as after winning just 71 games last year, they enter this game 56-50. The team's moneyline mark of plus-$1,703 makes them the third-best "money-maker" in all of MLB. The Mets were MLB's best road team last year (47-34, plus-$1,193) and while they are only 25-29 on the road this year, it shouldn't go unnoticed that they are outscoring their opponents in away games, 5.07-to-4.89 RPG. In that same vein, it's noteworthy that the Marlins, while posting a solid 30-23 mark here in Miami, have been outscored by opponents at home, 4.32-to-5.02 RPG. The Mets feature the 'hotter' pitcher tonight, as Oliver Perez takes on Scott Olsen. Perez is just 1-1 over his last five starts but the Mets are 4-1 in those games, as Perez owns a 1.34 ERA. He's made six starts against the Marlins since the beginning of '07 (four LY), going 3-1 with a 4.46 ERA. While his ERA in those games is hardly Cy Young-worthy, let's note that he's struck out 41 batters over 34.1 innings in his six starts vs the Marlins, with the Mets winning FIVE of them. It's also worth mentioning that just two of those six starts have come here in Miami (one TY and one LY), with Perez allowing just one ER in 14 innings, while striking out 16! Lefty Scott Olsen takes a 6-5 mark with a 4.07 ERA into tonight's game, which is quite an improvement over his 10-15 mark last year, when he posted a 5.81 ERA. However, he had gone 11 starts without a win, before winning his last start before the All Star break. He returned from the break to win again but then last Thursday in Wrigley, lasted six innings while allowing seven hits and six ERs in a 6-3 loss to the Cubs. Olsen is 4-3 with a 3.12 ERA in 12 starts at home (team is 8-4) but the Mets are 20-11 vs lefties this year and should get Perez enough runs to nab the win. Take New York.
Black Widow Sports
1* on Mariners/Rangers O 11
This is a large total, but with these two starting pitchers going, the odds makers can’t set the total high enough. Luis Mendoza (2-4, 7.16 ERA), was pounded for six runs and nine hits in four innings of a 10-2 loss to Chicago last Tuesday. Seattle counters with failed free agent signee Carlos Silva (4-12, 5.62 ERA). Silva signed a four-year, $48 million deal in the offseason, one of the worst moves made by former general manager Bill Bavasi. Silva has lost three straight starts since snapping a personal seven-game skid on June 28. Texas is 27-9 OVER (+18.0 Units) vs. an AL team with an on base percentage .320 or worse this season. Texas is 15-4 OVER (+11.1 Units) after 3 or more consecutive overs this season. Take the OVER 11 runs.
Scott Rickenbach
This is the Over Easy Shocker on Tuesday: 1* (regular play) OVER the total in Boston vs LA Angels
John Lackey is 2-1 this month but it’s only because he’s received a ton of run support. The fact is that Lackey has “lost it” here in July as he’s getting hammered at a .346 clip and he has a 7.61 ERA this month. Even though Lackey’s best start this month came against the Red Sox he certainly hasn’t fared well against them in his career. The Angels right-hander is 2-6 with a 6.01 ERA in 12 career outings against Boston and the Red Sox have particularly pounded him at Fenway Park. In seven career starts in Boston, Lackey is 1-4 with a 7.46 ERA and the Sox have hit .362 against him. After coming up short in yesterday’s 7-5 game, the Red Sox will be hungry to bounce back today and the sticks of Manny Ramirez and David Ortiz have proven particularly potent against the Angels Lackey. However, the problem for the Red Sox here is their own pitching situation and that’s why the play here is the over rather than Boston!
The Red Sox send right-hander Clay Buchholz to the mound this evening and he is just 2-5 with a 5.81 ERA this season. He also was the losing pitcher on the night that Lackey faced the Red Sox. Buchholz has lost each of his last three decisions and he hasn’t lasted even six innings in eight of his last eleven starts. He was hammered by the Angels on July 18th and then, in his next start, he did not look good at Seattle and the woeful Mariners even got to him early and often. The Angels are the best road team in baseball while the Red Sox have the best home winning percentage in the American League. The Angels sticks have been red hot this month and they’ve helped lead the way to a 16-6 July as Los Angeles has averaged six runs per game this month. The Red Sox are one of the top offenses in the league at Fenway Park as their home batting average ranks them 4th out of all 30 teams. In terms of bullpens in this match-up both clubs rank in the middle of the pack based on their bullpen’s ERA respectively. Buchholz has pitched better at home compared to on the road this season. However, he’s simply not throwing well right now and he struggled even in his most recent start at Fenway Park. Facing Baltimore in Boston earlier this month, Buchholz allowed four earned runs on five hits and five walks in just five innings of work. Play OVER the total in Boston as a regular selection.
Jeff Scott Sports
2 UNIT PLAY
Colorado -125 over PITTSBURGH
The Rockies are 7-1 in their last 8 vs. National League Central and 11-2 in their last 13 vs. a team with a losing record, while the Pirates are 10-21 in their last 31 games following a win and 1-5 in their last 6 games vs. a left-handed starter. The Rockies are making a second half surge as they come into this one with 10-2 mark since the All-Star break. Colorado's offense hasn't done well on the road this year, but they have scored 7.4 rpg and hit an astounding .379 in their last 7 games overall and 6.8 rpg in their 12 games since the All-Star break. Colorado also hits .276 and scores 4.8 rpg at night on the year. The hot Rockies offense will take on a struggling Yoslan Herrera. Yoslan is 1-1 with a 9.75 ERA in 3 starts, allowing teams a .462 OBP, while posting a 2.50 WHIP in the process. Glendon Rusch has not been struggling for the Rockies right now, as he comes in with a 3-0 mark and a 3.24 ERA in his last 3 starts. He is 1-1 with a 6.48 ERA on the road, but in his last road start he allowed just 1 ER to the Brew Crew in 6 innings of work. Glendon is 3-7 in his career vs the Pirates, but he is 1-1 with a solid 3.37 ERA in his last 3 trips to PNC Bank Park. The Pirate offense has been good of late, but they have scored just 3.4 rpg in their 5 games vs the Rockies this year, including just 2 runs in their lone game vs Glendon. The Rockies have been hot since the break, while the Pirates are headed in the opposite direction. Colorado bounces back from last nights loss in what should be a wild one.
Mr A
Los Angeles Angels at Boston Red Sox
The Los Angeles Angels are 5-1 in their last 6 games, 5-1 in its last 6 on the road and have taken the last 5 versus the Boston Red Sox.
Los Angeles' John Lackey (8-2, 3.02 ERA) is 2-0 with a 7.64 ERA in his last three starts, 6-1 with a 1.44 ERA in his last nine, but just 2-6 with a 6.01 ERA in 12 career starts against Boston. The Angels have lost seven of the right-hander's last 8 road starts versus the Red Sox.
Boston's Clay Buchholz (2-5, 5.81) is 0-2 with a 6.60 ERA in his last three starts. Boston has dropped eight of the right-hander's last 11 starts this season.
Take the LA Angels to continue their command over Boston and grab their sixth straight win against the Red Sox. Los Angeles' John Lackey beat the Red Sox and Clay Buchholz, 11-3 in his last start at Angel Stadium on July 18.
Los Angeles Angels +110
Gina
Chicago Cubs at Milwaukee Brewers
The two top teams in the National League Center and two of the top pitchers in the National League will face off tonight in Milwaukee. The Brewers have won nine of their last 12 games, but haven't played well against the Cubs at home. Milwaukee has lost five of its last 7 home games versus the Cubs and five of Ben Sheets (10-3, 3.50 ERA) last 7 starts at Miller Park.
Go with the Cubs in a close battle. Chicago's Carlos Zambrano (11-4, 2.96 ERA) is 5-5 in 10 career starts against the Brewers in Milwaukee. The road team in this series has been the lucrative choice.
Chicago Cubs +115
Las Vegas Sports Advisors
Toronto/R. Halladay -152 Play of the Day 5*
LA Angels/C. Buchholz +105 5*
Milwaukee/B. Sheets -116 5*
Minnesota/G. Perkins -118 FREE PICK
King Creole
NYY / BAL Over 2** BEST BET
Off all the home plate Umpires on the Tuesday night schedule, the guy with the best "OVER" credentials for the 2008 season will be in Yankee Stadium. CHAD FAIRCHILD gets the call 'behind the dish', and his record for the year stands at 15-8-2 O/U. Current OU streaks for Fairchild include 2-0-1 O/U in his last 3 games (12.9 RPG)... 3-1-1 O/U in his last 5 games (15.4 RPG)... and 8-2-1 O/U in his last 11 games. If needed, he'll be getting an assist from Mother Nature as pre-game forecasts project winds blowing OUT to straightaway Center Field in excess of 10+ MPH.
It's always a good sign when the previous game in the series also went OVER and that's the case tonight. In Game One, Baltimore shocked the Yankees by getting out to an 11-0 lead last night, and held on for a 13-4 upset win (one of Speedee's WINNERS from the Dawg Pound). Both bullpens got significant work in last night, putting added pressure on tonight's starting pitchers... NEITHER of whom is in any kind of decent current form (and 'bottom-feeders', to boot). It's been 'bombs away' for DANIEL CABRERA of the Orioles lately. His last 2 starts have seen 13 earned runs allowed in only 10 innings pitched (11.70 ERA). Last 3 starts' K/BB ratio indicates great blow-up potentials as he hs allowed MORE walks (13) than strikeouts (only 9). he also has plenty of recent series history vs tonight's opponent. Cabrera has started 7 games vs the Yankees in the last year and a half. His OU record in those 7 starts is 6-1 O/U. ERA stands at 5.95. He's also a PERFECT 5-0 O/U in his last 5 TUESDAY starts..... and 6-2 O/U in his last 8 roles as road underdog. His counterpart tonight will be DARRELL RASNER, who comes in with a 5-1-1 O/U mark in his last 7 starts. Rasner's ERA in those 7 starts is a whopping 7.34. His K/BB ratio of 11-10 in his last 3 starts can also be considered pretty rickety.
This series has gone 9-3-2 O/U in the last 14 games played in Yankee Stadium. BALTIMORE is on a current run in which they are averaging 6 runs per game in their last 10 games with a 7-3 O/U record. They are 20-6-2 O/U in their last 28 roles as an underdog... 10-1 O/U as BIG dogs of -150 or higher... a PERFECT 5-0 O/U in Game Two of a series... 13-3 O/U vs the AL East division... 4-1 O/U playing off a (rare) win... and 4-1-1 O/U in their last 5 games vs righties. NEW YORK is on a nice offensive uptick of their own as they are scoring at a 6 RPG clip in their last 7 games.... and have gone a PERFECT 3-0 O/U in their last 3
Jimmy Sirody
Kansas City Royals vs Oakland Athletics
Condition: Under
Kansas City has dipped below the total in its last seven games while averaging 3.1 runs and batting .241. Oakland has also struggled offensively, scoring 4.1 runs per game and hitting .218 in its last seven outings. Gil Meche has found his groove, yielding one earned run and seven hits over 13 1/3 innings in his past two appearances. Greg Smith has struggled in his last two starts, but he's been an under machine this year, dipping below the number in 13 of 18, including 10 straight under the lights. The A's have scored three runs or less in seven of Smith's last nine efforts. The Royals have knuckled under in 22 of 33 after allowing two runs or less. Oakland has slipped below the number in 38 of 57 after batting .240 or worse over a 10-game span. The A's have also dipped under in 18 of 25 when the total was 7 1/2 or less
Greg Daraban
Event: New York Mets vs Florida Marlins
Condition: 10* Under
Last night the Marlins won 7-3 at Shea. Perez pitching much better of late as he has evened his record at 6-6. Olsen has been on top of his game is 6-5. Low scoring at Dolphin Stadium. Take NYM/Fla Under
Marco D'Angelo
HOU (-110) vs CIN
Ok tonight we are going to go with Houston as they look to make it 2 in a row against the Reds. The Reds send Bronson Arroyo. This play is based on going against Arroyo who when pitching on the road on grass is just 8-20 over the last 2 seasons. Arroyo's Road ERA is a whopping 7.35 this year. Expect Houston to tee off on him tonight as Arroyo's lifetime ERA against Houston is 6.57. TAKE HOUSTON as MARCO'S PITCHER MISMATCH OF THE MONTH and make them a DOUBLE DIME PLAY.
Yankee Capper
3 Units - Minnesota Twins -120
2 Units - Mets/Marlins Over 9
ROBERT FERRINGO
2-Unit Play. Take Texas (-150) over Seattle
This is a home team bounce back. The Rangers fit the criteria for a series win that has hit at around 82 percent this year. Home teams have dominated. So when we have a favorite that's been very good at home (Texas) lose the first game of a series to a lesser team that is poor on the road (Seattle) we're playing on the bounceback. And, if we do happen to lose this one today we're going to POUND the Rangers tomorrow. This is going to be a high-scoring affair since we have Jerry Crawford behind the plate. That plays into Texas' strength. Carlos Silva is 2-6 in his career against the Rangers and has a career ERA approaching 8.00 in Arlington. I think Texas makes him pay in a big way today and they win comfortably.
2-Unit Play. Take Los Angeles Dodgers (-120) over San Francisco
This is the same concept as the Rangers game, only with a twist. I always like to fade mid-level pitchers coming off a complete game. It's been a very successful situation for me over the last couple years and we're going to work it against Matt Cain today. The Dodgers have been playing as well as anyone in the league over the last two weeks. They were stunned last night but their late comeback shows me that they actually have the momentum coming into tonight's game. Cain is 0-4 in his seven career starts against the Dodgers and has an ERA of 5.34 in three starts in Los Angeles. I think L.A. gets all over him early and, again, I see a comfortable winner here.
2-Unit Play. Take Philadelphia (-150) over Washington
The Mets opened the door for the Phillies yesterday with a loss, and now Philadelphia smells first place. They have actually been a better earner on the road over the last couple months than they have been at home. Brett Myers is pretty much a joke, but the Nationals are just a sad, sad team. Rookie Colin Balester is in a bit over his head in this one, and the youngster has an ERA of 7.71 at home this year and 7.04 in his last three starts. The edge goes to Myers and the Phils.
1.5-Unit Play. Take New York Mets (-125) over Florida
I don't see the Mets getting swept in Florida, a place in which they've always dominated. I think they win last night if John Maine doesn't leave with an injury. A tough break, and one the Mets should rally from. The crux of this play is on the team numbers against left-handed hitting. The Marlins are batting just .228 - the worst mark in the Majors - while the Mets are among the Top 10 against southpaws. Scott Olsen has given up 20 total runs in 24 innings (four starts) against the Mets in his career. I hate betting on Oliver Perez (we've gone against him recently waiting for a meltdown, now that we are on him I bet he's a wreck tonight!) but he has been exceptional under his new pitching coach. If he is just 'pretty good' tonight that should be enough for the Mets to even the series.
1.5-Unit Play. Take Arizona (+115) over San Diego
We're getting great value here on the Diamondbacks. Arizona, as a team, is hitting .297 over the last week. When they hit, they win. Doug Davis is on the bump and while he has been shaky on the road the Padres are No. 25 in the league against southpaws at just .245. Arizona lost yesterday and I think they are in bounceback mode today against Chris Young, who is making his first start in months. Young is 1-3 with a 5.08 ERA in his career against the Snakes while Davis is 6-3 with a 3.44 against the Dads. Great price on the better pitcher and sharper team.
1.5-Unit Play. Take Detroit (-125) over Cleveland
Matt Ginter takes the hill for the Indians and, again, he is over his head. He used to be a Tiger so he knows what this lineup is capable of. It wasn't a stunner to see the Tigers come out a bit flat in Game 1 yesterday after their emotional weekend series with Chicago. But they are a veteran team that understands that it can't give away games and series at this stage. They are better than Cleveland and Armando Galarragga has been a revelation for the Tigers. Detroit is 12-5 in his last 17 starts and are 11-2 as a road favorite. I like a high-scoring game here and I think the Tigers pitcher is better equipped to handle a tight zone and their offense is better equipped to take advantage of it. This one is all Detroit.
1.5-Unit Play. Take Minnesota (-130) over Chicago White Sox
This play is a bit like my Mets wager: Chicago is just so bad against lefties that the price is right. Minnesota has won four straight at home against the White Sox, a team that definitely is not built for turf. With the exception of a tough last outing in New York, Glen Perkins has been solid. He had surrendered three runs or less in eight straight starts and I can see him surprising the Sox with his stuff today. Conversely, Chicago trots out Clay Richards, a young kid making just his second career start against a hungry Twins team. Richards gave up five runs in four innings to Texas, another team that, like Minnesota struggles just a touch against Southpaws. That was at home for Richards. Now he's in the Metrodome and I don't see it ending well for him. Chicago is 7-15 on the road, 8-20 on turf, and 5-14 as a road dog. Minnesota is 19-7 at home, 11-2 in the division, and 6-2 in Perkins' last eight starts.
1-Unit Play. Take Boston (-115) over Los Angeles Angels
No sweep in this series. The Angels will not sweep Boston again. I am banking on it. Kind of like the Dodgers, I like the momentum that the Red Sox take into today after a valiant comeback last night. Also, John Lackey's nemesis is the Sox. He is 2-6 with a 6.01 ERA against them in his career, including a 1-4, 7.46 in Fenway. I think the line is a bit of an indicator here. Why isn't Lackey favored? Buchholz will be better at home and the Sox will find a way to scrape out a 'W'.
Today's Totals
2.5-Unit Play. Take ‘Over’ 11.0 Seattle at Texas
2-Unit Play. Take ‘Over’ 10.0 Baltimore at New York Yankees
2-Unit Play. Take ‘Under’ 9.5 Chicago White Sox at Minnesota
1.5-Unit Play. Take ‘Over’ 7.5 San Francisco at Los Angeles Dodgers
That's it for today. Large card - and a lot of systems at work - but I have a great feeling about where today is going. I know you won't believe it, but I also have leans on Colorado (I really like), St. Louis, Toronto (I really, really like), the Yankees, and Milwaukee. Writeups to follow on the sides.
Greg Shaker "AL GAME OF WEEK"
Chicago White Sox at Minnesota Twins
Play: Twins -122
Its a relief knowing that Ill at least be around for another start." That is a comment from the WhiteSox Starter tonight and that does not exude a lot of confidence as he gets his second chance in the Big League. Richard is a Big Lefty and he can throw the ball very hard. But the former backup QB for the Michigan Wolverines is going into a tough situation tonight, as the WhiteSox play a team that has been awfully good here in the Dome. The Twins are doing a lot of things right here at home and they are doing a lot of things right, right now. The Bullpen is performing very well at the Park with an Amazing ERA of 1.92 in all games played here. It is safe to say that if Minnesota grabs the lead here in the late innings, they should be able to hang on for the W. The Twins will also throw a southpaw and that puts Chicago in their worst hitting position for this contest as they are batting 30 points less with this scenerio. As good a year as Chicago has had, they are not performing well away from home, and the Bullpen is performing very poorly of late with an ERA topping the 6 run mark over the last 12 games. Bullpens are key to winning games in the second half of the year and we do have a decided advantage tonight. Perkins is coming off a bad start at New York but overall he is 5-1 last 10 starts and his team has won his last 6 of 8 and 7 of 10. He has especially done very well here in Minnesota with just 9 earned runs allowed over his last 4 games, including a 6 inning shutout job of Texas. Richard is Under the Gun to perform or it is back down to the Minors and much less meal money. For a 240 Pound Guy, that is a lot of pressure and I suspect strongly that he better enjoy his pregame meal tonight. That is why this is my AL GAME OF THE WEEK.