ASA
BOSTON RED SOX 110 over Anaheim Angels
ASA 3* Boston –110
Clay Buchholz has solid numbers at home this season with a 2.42 ERA and since returning from the DL he has made decent starts with his last effort being his strongest. Boston is 41-13 in the last 54 home games and the Red Sox should get some revenge after getting swept in Los Angeles just over a week ago. The Angels owns a great overall road record but the numbers are falling back to earth with a 7-7 mark in the last 14 road contests. John Lackey has had very little success against Boston and he has not pitched well in the last few weeks. Lackey has allowed 21 runs in his last four starts. Lackey has allowed six home runs in that span and his ERA is 7.61. Although the Angels are on a record setting pace with 45 saves already the bullpen ERA is 3.95 and the bullpen has been shaky at times. Lackey is 1-7 in his last eight road starts versus Boston and the Angels are 2-11 in his last 13 outings against the Red Sox. The Angels are hitting just .245 in road games against right-handed pitching and Buchholz beat Lackey in this same pitching match-up at Fenway last season. Boston is one of the best home teams in baseball and Lackey has not pitched up to the ace status that he commands in the line. Look for the Red Sox to deliver on Tuesday in this critical AL series
San Francisco Giants +120 over LOS ANGELES DODGERS
ASA 3* San Francisco +120
All of a sudden Matt Cain is starting to pitch up to the level of his promise this season. Cain had a solid statistical year in 2007 but poor run support left him with a terrible 7-16 record. This year Cain did not pitch well early in the season but he has started to put it all together, delivering scoreless performances in three of his last five starts. On the season opponents are hitting just .225 against Cain and he should be able to shutdown the Dodgers on Tuesday. On the season Los Angeles has been a much better hitting team against left-handed pitching and on the year the Dodgers are hitting just .248 in home games against right-handers. Los Angeles is also barely above .500 in home games so there is little home field edge particularly in this storied series. The Giants have been a much better road team as well with a significantly better record and comparable offensive numbers. Veteran Jason Johnson is slated to make his first start in two years after bouncing around with three teams in 2006 and failing to pitch in the big leagues last season. Johnson owns a career 53-93 record so there should not be considerable optimism with his return. In two relief appearances this year Johnson has not impressed, allowing runs in both short outings. The Los Angeles bullpen is also a serious concern with Scott Proctor and Takashi Saito sitting on the DL.
NELLY
SAN DIEGO PADRES -vs- Arizona Diamondbacks
Nelly's 1-Star ‘OVER’
The San Diego Padres have put together a nice little win streak with great offensive numbers. The Padres are averaging 5.1 runs per game over the last ten contests and Arizona has also seen an increase in run production as well with 5.9 runs scored per game in that time. Chris Young makes his return to the mound tonight but expectations should be low and he will likely require several innings from the questionable San Diego bullpen to bail him out. Doug Davis has allowed at least three runs in six consecutive starts and he has a WHIP of 1.59 in road games. The ‘over’ has hit in 12 of the past 14 Arizona games and eight consecutive Diamondback road games and the trends should continue tonight as the Padres are also scoring runs. This ballpark is low scoring generally but with a very low total it will not take much to cash the ‘over’. Nelly’s rates picks 1-3 units, this is a 1-unit selection.
Oskeimsports National League Game of the Year
New York Mets (-127) over Florida Marlins
Despite losing last night, the Mets are 20-10 versus left-handed starters this season against whom they are batting .272 with a .355 on base percentage (5.0 runs per game), whereas the Marlins are a money-burning 13-15 versus southpaws against whom they are hitting a paltry .233 with a .292 on base percentage. Indeed, against left-handed pitching, Hanley Ramirez is batting .242, Mike Jacobs is batting .241, Josh Willingham is batting .231, Jeremy Hermida is batting .230, Wes Helms is batting .224, Dan Uggla is batting .193 and Amezaga is hitting .237. Now, Florida faces one of the hottest pitchers in the league in Oliver Perez who takes the mound with an impressive 1.83 ERA and 1.220 WHIP over his last three starts, including striking out twelve men and walking only one walk in his last outing against the Phillies. Conversely, Scott Olsen toes the rubber knowing that he has allowed ten runs and 15 hits over his last 11 innings of work and, moreover, is 1-2 with a career 4.25 ERA and 1.453 WHIP versus the Mets. While those career numbers look decent, it should be noted that Olsen has yielded 12 runs and 13 hits over his last ten innings of work against New York.
Florida is batting a paltry .240 with a .303 on base percentage at home, .243 with a .308 on base percentage versus division opponents and .232 with a .312 on base percentage over its last seven games. Moreover, the Mets have dominated this series with a 26-18 mark over the last three seasons, including 15-7 at Florida. Finally, the Mets are supported by a 56-18-1 bounce-back system of mine that is 12-1 this season. Lay the price and invest with confidence.
Rating: 5* (National League Game of the Year)
Plus10Club
Ethan Law
Pick: ATLANTA BRAVES
Opposite Action Plays
Pick: MINNESOTA TWINS
LT Profits
Pick: Diamondbacks / Padres UNDER 7.5
Mike Lineback
Pick: Royals / A's UNDER 7.5
Mike Rose
Pick: BOSTON RED SOX
Rocketman Sports
Pick: OAKLAND A'S
Alex Smart
Pick: TEXAS RANGERS
Sunday Selections
Pick: TORONTO BLUE JAYS
Jeff Benton
25 Dime: BLUE JAYS -1 1/2
10 Dime: DODGERS
KELSO
High Rollers Club
15 units - Blue Jays
Best Bets Club
5 units - Rockies
4 units - Twins
3 units - Brewers
Charlies Sports
Giants @ Dodgers under 7½ (500*)
Cincinnati+105 (30*)
Dodgers-130 (20*)
Milwaukee-120 (20*)
Minnesota-130 (10*)
Boston-110 (10*) free play
Matty O'Shea
BOS (-105) vs ANA
This is a very small price to pay for the Red Sox at home, especially considering how poor LA's John Lackey has pitched against them during his career. Lackey is just 2-6 with a 6.01 ERA lifetime vs. Boston, and he has a bloated 7.61 ERA this month. Opponents are hitting .346 against him in July, which is just what the doctor ordered for the Sox. Boston will send young Clay Buccholz to the mound, and he has pitched much better at home with a 2-1 mark and 2.42 ERA in four starts there. Look for Boston to bounce back and end a six-game series losing streak to the Angels with a win as my Single Dime AL Play O' the Day.
MIL (-125) vs CHC
The Cubs drew first blood in this key NL Central series with the Brewers, who lost the opener 6-4 on Monday despite one of their aces being a huge favorite. Look for the tables to turn in the second game for Milwaukee with the team's other ace going to the mound at a smaller price. Yes, Chicago ace Carlos Zambrano will oppose Ben Sheets, but he is just 9-8 lifetime against the Brew Crew with a 3.87 ERA. Milwaukee was able to win two meetings with Zambrano earlier this season by getting to the bullpen late, and that could be certainly be the case again. Big Z has also seen the Cubs lose three of his last four road starts, and I expect the pressure to be too much for him in this spot. Bet the Brewers to even the series at 1-1 with a victory here as my Single Dime NL Play O' the Day.
Greg Shaker Double-Dime Bet
CLE (+112) vs DET
There are a lot of good things that we can say about the Tiger starter tonight. In his last outing, Galarraga took a perfect game into the seventh inning before Kansas Citys David DeJesus singled in Detroits 7-1 win over the Royals on Wednesday. He is a good one. except for a couple of outings this year, he has been able to keep the ball down in the strikezone, not allowing very many Dingers. He has also had very good command of his throws with very good Pitching Ratios across the board. There is a good liklihood that he will have some success tonight. However, I expect the same thing from the Cleveland Hurler. Ginter is a former Tiger and his motivation tonight will be evident. He has thrown well in his 2 previous starts and he has demonstrated very good control, with ZERO batters reaching first base via the free pass comprising 11 innings of work. His only outing at home this year was as perfect as it can get with 5 scoreless innings a good hitting TB Squad. Cleveland's season is all but over and the spoiler roll is in full force tonight. They love to play the Tigers here at Progressive Field and they have done so very well winning the last 6 of 7, including last night's 5-0 affair. I am not convinced yet that the Tigers deserve to be laying this kind of number on the road and especially in their own division. Cleveland has seen much more success here in the City and Rock and Roll built and they are 4 games over the .500 mark heading into tonight's competition. They will be in their best hitting situation facing the righty. Ginter has thrown well at the Tigers with 5 career appearences and an ERA of just 1.80. This first start verses them will be a good effort in my best estimation and I will grab the Nice Home Division Dog.
Greg Shaker "AL GAME OF WEEK" Triple-Dime Bet
MIN (-122) vs CWS
Its a relief knowing that Ill at least be around for another start." That is a comment from the WhiteSox Starter tonight and that does not exude a lot of confidence as he gets his second chance in the Big League. Richard is a Big Lefty and he can throw the ball very hard. But the former backup QB for the Michigan Wolverines is going into a tough situation tonight, as the WhiteSox play a team that has been awfully good here in the Dome. The Twins are doing a lot of things right here at home and they are doing a lot of things right, right now. The Bullpen is performing very well at the Park with an Amazing ERA of 1.92 in all games played here. It is safe to say that if Minnesota grabs the lead here in the late innings, they should be able to hang on for the W. The Twins will also throw a southpaw and that puts Chicago in their worst hitting position for this contest as they are batting 30 points less with this scenerio. As good a year as Chicago has had, they are not performing well away from home, and the Bullpen is performing very poorly of late with an ERA topping the 6 run mark over the last 12 games. Bullpens are key to winning games in the second half of the year and we do have a decided advantage tonight. Perkins is coming off a bad start at New York but overall he is 5-1 last 10 starts and his team has won his last 6 of 8 and 7 of 10. He has especially done very well here in Minnesota with just 9 earned runs allowed over his last 4 games, including a 6 inning shutout job of Texas. Richard is Under the Gun to perform or it is back down to the Minors and much less meal money. For a 240 Pound Guy, that is a lot of pressure and I suspect strongly that he better enjoy his pregame meal tonight. That is why this is my AL GAME OF THE WEEK.
Greg Shaker Double-Dime Bet
SFG (+114) vs LOS
Very brief thoughts here. The Giants Pitcher is throwing darts right now and despite his not so spiffy career numbers verses the Dodgers, this guy can be very streaky and he is streaking. This series is one of the hardest fought one's in the History of Baseball and SF will come to play tonight as they did last night. It is most interesting to note that this West Race is still up for grabs, and the visitors are not throwing in the towel. While I don't think they have a Rats *** Chance of Winning the Division, you are not going to be able to convince them. The Dodgers are Lefty Killers, but just soso verses righthanded pitching, batting just .248 here at Dodger Stadium and squeeking by with .500 Ball. Just give me the best thrower by far to start this game. Jason Johnson makes his first start in 2 years and when he did, he accomplished a 53-93 Record. Perhaps this is a desperate move by the home team? I think so. Give me the Motivated Division Dog
Greg Shaker Double-Dime Bet
BOS (-117) vs ANA
Lackey is throwing awful. He cannot beat the RedSox. He is 1-7 here at Fenway and that is not good. The Sox are just plain nasty at this park going 41-13 last 54 here. They were swept at LAA earlier this year. Can you say motivation? Buchholz number not that good but much better here at home with an ERA Under 2.5 Runs. Boston is in a Heated Pennent race, the Angels are coasting. I expect a Big Bounceback effort from the Home Team tonight.
Greg Shaker Double-Dime Bet
BOS / ANA Over 9.5
This line is also available at 9 and -125 to -130. Get the 9.5 for better odds or play it at 9 if that is all that you can get. You can view the side writeup on this play for most of the info needed. The Sox should score tonight and the Angels have enough firepower to score runs as well. These teams have played a lot of high scoring affairs together and we do have favorable weather conditions for this one.
Elite Sports Circle Guaranteed Selections
5000* ELITE STEAM BASEBALL WINNER
Toronto w/Halladay -145
Triple Threat Sports Guaranteed Selections
5* Tampa Bay/Toronto OVER
Halladay was tremendous in his last start, but he always seems to pitch extremely well in day games (now 49-18 in his career in day starts), so that one start is not going to keep us off the Over here. He has made two starts against the Rays this year that and has gone 14 innings in those games, allowing 17 hits, ten earned runs (6.42 ERA) with an unspectacular (for him) 10-4 K/W ratio. As for Garza, he pitched very well against Toronto two weeks ago, but that was at home, where he is much more comfortable. He has a 6.04 Away ERA this season and in his only start here in Toronto allowed six hits while walking three batters in 6.2 innings of work. Teamwise, note that the Rays are scoring 4.91 runs per game on the road vs right handed starters this year and that Toronto is scoring 4.75 rpg at home vs right handers. Finally, trend study shows that Rays fit an 8-2 team trend to the Over that is accounting for a combined 9.6 rpg this season, with the Rays getting 6.8 rpg in the last four times in this particular scheduling spot.
LAS VEGAS TECH REPORT
PHILADELPHIA PHILLIES vs WASHINGTON NATIONALS
Play: PHILLIES / NATIONALS OVER 9
LA ANGELS vs BOSTON REDSOX
Play: ANGELS / REDSOX OVER 9
Yourdailysportsfix
3* Atlanta -124
2* Florida +124
1* Philly/Wash over 9.5
EZWINNERS
2 STAR: (956) FLORIDA (+$120) over NY Mets
(Action) (Risking $200 to win $240)
2 STAR: (968) CLEVELAND (+$112) over Detroit
(Action) (Risking $200 to win $224)
2 STAR: (977) CHICAGO (+$111) over Minnesota
(Action) (Risking $200 to win $222)
2 STAR: OVER 9.5 (-$115) Philadelphia @ Washington
(Listing Myers and Balester) (Risking $230 to win $200)
VEGAS RUNNER
SDP (-121) vs ARI 3* NL WEST GAME of the MONTH
PHI (-150) vs WAS 2* ML WAGER
MIL (-124) vs CHC 2* ML WAGER
CLE (+119) vs DET 1* ML WAGER
ATL (-122) vs STL 1* ML WAGER
NYY / BAL Under 10.5 1* TOTAL
2* MLB PARLAY of the DAY
NY YANKEES -172
TORONTO BLUE JAYS -147