Yankee Capper
3 Units - Oakland Athletics +115
3 Units - Pirates/D-Backs Over 8.5
2 Units - Nationals/Rockies Over 10
Vegas Experts
Florida Marlins at Philadelphia Phillies
Throughout his career, Jamie Moyer has absolutely dominated the Florida Marlins, winning all ten starts while amassing a 3.03 ERA. This year alone, he's beaten them three times, including one outing of eight-inning, two-hit, shutout ball. Moyer has been pitching pretty well regardless of opponent lately (2.84 ERA L3 starts) and has a TSR of 11-1 if he allowed multiple HR in his last outing.
Play on: Philadelphia
LT Profits
Tampa Bay Rays -130
We cashed a ticket with the Cleveland Indians as an underdog with Cliff Lee last night, but we look for the Tampa Bay Rays to get some payback tonight.
After all, the Rays are still an amazing 43-17 at home this season, so they should bounce back well vs. right-hander Fausto Carmona, who has not looked good in his two comeback starts off of the Disabled List. Granted, his second start back was better, but he still allowed four runs in 6.1 innings with only three strikeouts. He is facing a Rays lineup that has hit much better vs. right-handers than left-handers over the last 10 games.
Edwin Jackson may be having his best season in the major leagues for Tampa Bay, and he has now allowed three runs or less in six of his last seven starts, allowing two runs or less in five of those outings. He is also a perfect three for three in Quality Starts vs. the Indians, with all three of those career starts coming last season when Cleveland was better offensively.
Finally, the Rays have the far superior bullpen here, which is significant because we do not expect Carmona to work as deeply into this contest in his third start back as Lee did last night.
Pick: Rays -130
Pittsburgh Pirates @ Arizona Diamondbacks Over 8.5
It is not too often that we would recommend an Over in a game started by Brandon Webb of the Arizona Diamondbacks, but the Pittsburgh Pirates have been an Over machine on the road and they got to another stud pitcher in Danny Haren here last night.
The Pirates managed four runs and eight hits in six innings off of Haren in a game ultimately won by the Diamondbacks 13-9. This brings the record for the Over to an incredible 36-15-3 this season, primarily due to a dreadful pitching rotation that has a bloated 6.44 ERA on the road.
Zach Duke gets the start for the Bucs tonight, and he has been simply horrendous in his last five starts, allowing a total of 30 earned runs and 51 baserunners in just 24.1 innings. For those of you scoring at home, this translates to an 11.10 ERA and a 2.10 WHIP! Duke also has a 6.24 ERA and an ugly 1.71 WHIP on the road for the entire season, with the Over going 7-2 in those starts.
Now Webb has been his usual self lately, but we would not be surprised to see Arizona score at least seven runs on their own tonight given the current form of Duke and the Pittsburgh bullpen, which was used up for 6.2 innings while allowing 10 earned runs last night. Besides, the Over is surprisingly 8-1 in all Webb home starts this season.
Finally, the last five head-to-head meetings between these clubs here in the desert have averaged a combined 13.4 runs with four of those games reaching double-digits.
Pick: Pirates, Diamondbacks Over 8.5
John Ryan
San Diego Padres vs. New York Mets
Play: New York Mets
Ai Simulator 3* graded play on the NY Mets– SD has struggled all season long to score runs. For the season they are batting just 245 and scoring 3.7 RPG and are even worse over the past 7 games hitting 179 and scoring just 2.9 RPG. SD bullpen has done well recently, but they have been terrible in road situations sporting a 5.04 ERA and a 1.548 WHIP in 157 IP on the road. Mets are hitting 293 over the past 7 days, but have stranded 53 men on base. Supporting this graded play is a system that has gone 39-6 making 30.2 units for 87% since 1997. Play against road dogs with a money line of +125 to +175 that is a poor hitting team batting <=.250 and is now facing a decent NL starting pitcher with An ERA=3.70 to 4.20 and also a cold hitting team batting .240 or worse over their last 10 games. Pelfry has been inconsistent over his past several starts – alternating strong starts with weak ones. He is coming off a poor 4 IP 5 ER 8 hit start, but that does not imply he will pitch well tonight. He does his best pitching at Schea posting a 2.25 ERA and a 1.139 WHIP in 11 starts this season. Plus, the AiS shows an 83% probability that he will complete 6+ IP and should that occur the Mets have an 84% probability of winning. SD starter Young is just 1-8 (-10.2 Units) against the money line when playing against a team with a winning record in the second half of the season over the last 2 seasons. Take the Mets.
Matt Fargo
Boston Red Sox @ Kansas City Royals
PICK: Boston Red Sox
For Boston, losses like last night are not going to send this back to the World Series. Granted, it was on the road but nonetheless, these are the games that need to be won if it is going to be making a run at Tampa Bay in the American League East. The loss comes after a home sweep over the A’s so it was a big momentum killer as well. Even though they have struggles on the road, the Red Sox are 27-9 in their last 36 road games against a team with a losing home record.
The Royals are streaking again, this time in the good way as they have won seven of their last eight games. How long can this continue? It is a good bet that it ends here as it is finally going up against a top quality pitcher. Kansas City remains under .500 at home and a lot of that can be attributed to the pitching as well as its season long issues. The Royals have a 4.58 ERA on the season which is 5th worst in all of baseball. The pitching has been solid of late but that ends tonight.
Kansas City goes with Brian Bannister who has been pitching extremely poorly over the last three months. He has gone six straight starts without a quality outing, posting a dreadful 8.19 ERA over that span. He has been much better at home but he is facing a team that has hurt him twice. He is 0-2 with an 8.73 ERA in two starts against the Red Sox, one which occurred this season. The Royals are 3-8 in Bannister’s last 11 starts as an underdog.
Boston counters with Josh Beckett and things have not been going well for him either. The good thing is that he is capable of coming out of his slump at anytime and this is a great spot for it to happen. He has a 3.44 ERA on the road to go along with a solid 1.16 WHIP. He had tossed four straight quality starts before running into the Angels, who have now roughed him up twice over his last four outings. Boston is 20-8 in Beckett’s last 28 starts as a road favorite. Play Boston Red Sox 1.5 Units
Locksmith Sports
1 Unit on NY Mets -156
I like the Mets to mop up the floor with one of the worst road teams in baseball tonight behind the red hot Pelfrey. The Mets are 9-1 in Pelfrey's last 10 starts, 5-0 in Pelfrey's last 5 home starts, and 4-0 in Pelfrey's last 4 starts vs. the National League West. The Mets are 7-0 in their last 7 vs. the National League West and 11-2 in their last 13 home games. The Padres are just 12-30 in their last 42 overall and 14-41 in their last 55 vs. a team with a winning record. Take the Mets.
Ron Raymond
Cleveland – Tampa Bay: UNDER 9.0 -130
Keys to selection: Today’s baseball pick will be the UNDER 9.0 -130 between the Indians and Rays. The Indians have been involved in some low scoring games of late, as the UNDER is now 4-0 in their last 4 contests and they send Fausto Carmona to the Hill this evening vs. Erwin Jackson. The UNDER is 22-10-2 for Cleveland in their last 35 games at home or away vs. AL East opponents.
Furthermore, the UNDER is 6-3-1 when Cleveland travels to Tampa Bay in their last 10 games and the last 4 games in Tampa Bay have gone UNDER the posted total.
Here’s a great system on the season that backs up our UNDER selection tonight.
Whenever you have a -120 to -140 Home Favorite this season playing under these current situations:
• During a night game
• Vs. Right handed pitchers
• Coming off a 1 game loss
• Coming off a lost in game 1 of a series
The UNDER is 17-2-0 for the Home Faves in this role this season.
Tom Freese
Detroit at Chicago
Chicago is 7-0 off a day off and they are 7-0 their last 7 games vs. lefty starters. The White Sox are 22-8 their last 30 games vs. losing teams and they are 12-2 with Gavin Floyd if their opponent scored 5 or more runs in their last game. Detroit is 7-21 their last 28 games as underdogs and they are 2-10 their last 12 games vs. winning teams. The Tigers are 16-36 in the last 52 road starts made by Nate Robertson and they are 4-13 in his last 17 August starts. Detroit is 2-7 the last 9 starts made by Robertson vs. the White Sox. PLAY ON CHICAGO -
Dave Malinsky
Washington Nationals @ Colorado Rockies
PICK: Washington Nationals 3*
Should a team that is 12 games under .500, and sending the 6.94 ERA of Jorge de la Rosa to the mound as the starter, be favored by more than -160 against anyone? That can be a case to get involved here by itself. But the Nationals are not just an anyone right now, particularly with John Lannan taking the mound.
Washington enters this game not just on a 4-0 run, but it has been an explosive stretch in which they have out-scored the opposition by 14 runs, despite having nine fewer outs to work with. It seemed that by cutting a few veterans last week there has been a cathartic impact on what had been a struggling team, and they have responded by playing with passion. Meanwhile Lannan has been one of the true tough luck stories of recent years, managing just six wins in 21 starts despite working to a solid 3.61 tune over 124.2 innings vs. an upper-tier schedule. And on the road he has flat out been one of the best pitchers in the National League, with a 2.57 over 77 innings. There are no flukes there - he only allowed 73 hits in that span, and note that the 2.57 is the real allowance, with zero unearned runs through the stretch. He also has a significant advantage tonight in that no Colorado hitter has ever had a single plate appearance against him, which means a chance to set the tempo on his first couple of passes through the lineup.
Lannan is league's above de la Rosa, who may not be around for multiple passes through the Washington hitters. The Rocky left-hander has been the opposite of Lannan in terms of luck, with the Rockies going .500 in his starts despite his 6.94 ERA and 1.65 WHIP, and that will catch up to him before the season is over. In nine of his 14 starts he has only managed to complete five innings or less, and his confidence will be at a low ebb, lasting only 1.2 innings in a dismal performance at Florida in his last outing. In no way does either he, or the team behind him, merit this price range.
Scott Delaney
Travel couldn't slow the Halos, and with the first game off an East Coast junket out of the way, we'll play the Angels tonight against visiting Baltimore. And oh yes, list Jon Garland here, as he?ll continue his domination of the Orioles. He's won his last six starts against Baltimore and is 2-0 with a 4.05 ERA against it this season.
The veteran right-hander is also an impressive 6-0 with a 3.30 ERA in nine outings versus AL East opponents on the year, and will be gunning for his third straight win overall. I like his chances, as hell oppose Chris Waters, who is making his Major League-debut after being called up from Triple-A Norfolk.
He began the season at Double-A Bowie, where he was an impressive 5-0 with a 1.69 ERA in six starts but he then went 3-6 with a 5.70 ERA in 18 games, including 16 starts, with Norfolk. And while I'd normally be excited to take a pitcher making his Major League-debut, it's very hard to overlook this Angels team, given it's atop the Major League right now with that 70-42 mark and is on pace to win 101 games.
Play the Halos on the Run Line in this one.
4♦ ANGELS
MATT RIVERS
Tuesday take the Nationals at Coors.
Sure Colorado is the much better team than Washington and sure the Rockies could put up a big number and win going away today but I still cannot let Jorge De la Rosa get away with laying such a hefty price anywhere and against anybody.
Bad pitchers could get pounded by any Major League ballclub at anytime and that is the situation here. A guy like De La Rosa just flat out cannot be such a favorite, he just can't. No doubt the chunky lefty has the far superior hitting club on his side with a stud like Holliday plus Taveras, Tulowitzki, Atkins and a few others and could do enough to get a win here but it's still too much jack to lay.
Washington is playing out the string and is as beat up as beat up could be with their two best players in Zimmerman and Guzman missing some recent action. Manny Acta's squad is not very talented but yet still were able to win going away yesterday and sweep the superior Reds over the weekend and once again could have enough to win this game against a bad pitcher.
John Lannan has been pretty darn good this season and has won as a similar dog a bunch of times this season including at Turner Field against the Braves a month ago when they were still formidable. The lefty can definitely hold his own today and with him being the better starter and getting this price back I can't but take a chance on the visiting Nats.
TONY KARPINSKI
Los Angeles Dodgers vs. St Louis Cardinals
Play: Los Angeles Dodgers
The Los Angeles Dodgers were hoping Manny Ramirez would provide some offensive punch when they acquired him at the trade deadline. The move is already paying dividends. Ramirez looks to continue his red-hot hitting Tuesday night when Los Angeles opens a three-game road set against Chris Carpenter and the St. Louis Cardinals. The Dodgers (56-55) obtained Ramirez from Boston in a three-team deal just before Thursday's non-waiver trade deadline. The 11-time All-Star and 2004 World Series MVP made an immediate impact, going 8-for-13 (.615) with two homers and five RBIs in three games adding some much needed punch into their lineup. Chad Billingsley (11-9, 3.05), gets the call on Tuesday night for the Blue, who seeks a third consecutive victory. The right-hander has allowed two runs and 10 hits in 16 2-3 innings over his last two starts. He was outstanding Wednesday, throwing his first career shutout by scattering five hits and striking out eight in a 4-0 victory over San Francisco. Lets back the LA Dodgers on the road tonight. Play on the LA DODGERS
SportsKingz
METS -160
COLORADO -170
MINNESOTA -125
YANKEES -165
Wunderdog
Los Angeles Dodgers at St. Louis
Pick: St. Louis -106
One thing is for sure and that is you'd never get Chris Carpenter and the Cards at home for basically even money before his Tommy John surgery last April. The fact that Carpenter threw 67 pitches and allowed just one run over four innings, and had no setbacks says this guy is ready to be himself again and soon. The Cards are 27-10 over his last 37 home starts and we'll take the odds makers hedge that he isn't Chris Carpenter yet, and say that he is. St. Louis has been a difficult stop for Los Angeles over the past three years as they have gone just 2-7 here and have been outscored in the process 59-17 or by almost five runs a game. We will back the Cards in the opener at home.
JEFF BONDS
CHICAGO WHITE SOX -145 (3 DIME)
BOSTON RED SOX -170 (1 DIME)
Some key items: The Detroit Tigers are 0-5 this season in the first game of a series after being swept in its previous series.Detroit SP Nate Robertson is 4-13 in the month of August in his career and has been ESPECIALLY atrocious the last couple years.Get this one early, as it should only climb - surprised this isn't in the -170 range - but the White Sox bullpen hasn't been great lately