Ron Raymond
5* MLB O/U GAME OF THE WEEK
Cleveland Indian/Tampa Bay Rays Under 9
Wunderdog
Game: Milwaukee at Cincinnati
Pick: 3 units Cincinnati -123
Edinson Volquez has had a breakout season for the Reds and has not allowed more than three runs in a game but three times on the season covering 23 starts. He is 13-4 with a 2.71 ERA, and in Cy Young contention for a team that hasn't been very effective this season, but have been pretty good at home at 31-25. Dave Bush has been the weakest link on the Brewers’ staff this season and the road has really been an issue. The Brewers are just 1-8 in his nine road starts and getting pounded by a total of 55-27. The opponents have scored at least six runs in eight of the nine starts. Since Volquez hasn't given up six in a game all season, we have to like the Reds here.
Game: Los Angeles Dodgers at St. Louis
Pick: 4 units St. Louis -106
One thing is for sure and that is you'd never get Chris Carpenter and the Cards at home for basically even money before his Tommy John surgery last April. The fact that Carpenter threw 67 pitches and allowed just one run over four innings, and had no setbacks says this guy is ready to be himself again and soon. The Cards are 27-10 over his last 37 home starts and we'll take the odds makers hedge that he isn't Chris Carpenter yet, and say that he is. St. Louis has been a difficult stop for Los Angeles over the past three years as they have gone just 2-7 here and have been outscored in the process 59-17 or by almost five runs a game. We will back the Cards in the opener at home.
Game: Pittsburgh at Arizona
Pick: 2 units Pittsburgh +244
Sometimes you have to look at the odds on a game and make a decision if the value pendulum has swung to the extreme enough to push the value in line of the huge underdog. We have an opportunity here to back such a situation. Brandon Webb has been a top pitcher for several years, but the home record of teams in his starts has been just 34-21 for 61.8% over the last four years, while it would take 71% in this price range to breakeven. This is a classic letdown situation for the D-Backs. They are fat and happy right now - maybe overconfident. They have Webb on the mound (coming off four straight wins), they have their lead over the Dodgers in the division, they are facing a struggling pitcher, and they are coming off a comfortable 13-7 win in game one. How can they not let down here? Pittsburgh has the offense to stay in this one, especially if Arizona bats take the day off. Webb, as good as he has been is actually just 9-28 in post All-Star play vs. teams that score 4.8+ runs per game. We will give the Pirates a go here, as the odds are longer than their true value by a fairly significant margin
Jeff Alexander Sports
1 Unit on Philadelphia Phillies -140
Moyer is a beacon of consistency in the home favorite position at 112-49 against the money line as a home favorite of -110 or higher since 1997.Moyer is also a rock solid 20-6 against the money line against division opponents over the last 2 seasons.The Phillies have won their last 5 against their division and they are a perfect 10-0 in Moyer's last 10 starts vs. the Marlins.Take Philly tonight.
MR A
Baltimore Orioles at Los Angeles Angels
The Baltimore Orioles have lost five of the last six meetings versus the Los Angeles Angels and six of its last seven at Angel Stadium.
Baltimore's Chris Waters (0-0, 0.00 ERA) will make his major league debut. The southpaw went 3-6 with a 5.70 ERA in 18 games, including 16 starts with Triple-A Norfolk.
Los Angeles' Jon Garland (10-6, 4.30 ERA) is 2-0 with a 5.00 ERA in his last three starts. The right-hander is 7-2 with a 4.40 ERS in 11 career outings, including 9 starts versus the Orioles
Take the Angels at home with Jon Garland on the mound. Los Angeles has taken 11 of the last 14 games against Baltimore played at Angel Stadium and right-hander Garland has won his last six starts against them, 2-0 with a 4.05 ERA this season.
Los Angeles Angels -200
LT Profits
2* Houston Astros
BEN BURNS
PHI (-155) vs FLA
Give the Marlins credit, as they've managed to hang around in the playoff race for a lot longer than most people would have expected. They're in tough tonight though. They just dropped two of three vs. the Rockies, including a disheartening loss on Sunday, which saw them blow a lead which they held for most of the game. Now they travel to Philadelphia to face a red hot Phillies team which has won seven of eight games. Making matters worse, they're up against a pitcher who they've never beaten.
In 10 career starts against the Marlins, Jamie Moyer has gone a perfect 10-0. All 10 of those starts came as a member of Philadelphia and the Phillies won by a combined score of 63-27. Moyer had a 3.03 ERA in those games with an outstanding 0.98 WHIP. Philadelphia closer Brad Lidge had this to say about Moyer's dominance of the Marlins: "He's such a good pitcher, sometimes he can use a team's aggressiveness against them. Florida has a very aggressive team - they hit a lot of home runs. Jamie's style matches up good against them. He's such a master of what he's doing, he can see what they're swinging at and move it a couple of inches." Moyer will be opposed by Josh Johnson, who's coming off his first win since August of 2006. While Johnson has been relatively solid for the Marlins, he's still only made two road starts. He has a 4.36 ERA and 1.549 WHIP in those games and has averaged just 5.2 innings per start. Nothing too impressive about that. He also has a poor 4.64 ERA in five career appearances against the Phillies. Look for Moyer to continue his series dominance as the Phillies remain red hot and pad their lead in the East. *Annihilator*
CIN (-124) vs MIL
I won with the Reds yesterday and I feel that they provide us with excellent value again today. Volquez is 13-3 as a starter (13-4 overall) with an excellent 2.74 ERA. That's significantly better than Bush's 5-9 record and 4.73 ERA in his 19 starts. That doesn't tell the whole story about Bush though. To get a better idea about Bush we need to look more closely at his stats.
For starters, Bush really prefers to pitch during the day. In five daytime starts, he's 3-2 with a 3.53 ERA. On the other hand, in 15 night appearances (14 starts) he's gone 2-7 with a 5.18 ERA. His home/road numbers are even more revealing. In 11 home starts, Bush is 4-3 with a solid 3.30 ERA. However, in eight road starts he's 1-6 (Brewers are 1-7) with a brutal 7.11 ERA. This isn't just a one-year fluke either. Last season, he had a 4.26 ERA at home but a 6.14 ERA on the road. In 2006, he was 9-4 with a 3.53 ERA and but 3-7 with a 5.38 ERA on the road. You get the idea.
In addition to his problems on the road, Bush has really struggled vs. the Reds. Indeed, in eight career starts vs. Cincinnati, all of them as a member of the Brewers, he's gone 1-3 with an awful 8.38 ERA and 1.862 WHIP. Not surprisingly, Milwaukee lost the last five of those games, going 2-6 overall. The Brewers are 0-5 in Bush's five starts at Cincinnati losing by a combined score of 51-26. In those games, Bush allowed 29 earned runs in just 18 1/3 innings. That's a 14.24 ERA! Meanwhile, Volquez was dominant in his lone start against the Brewers, which came just a few weeks ago. In that game, Volquez allowed just one run through 7 1/3 innings, striking out 10, en route to a 8-2 Milwaukee win. Look for Volquez to get the better of Bush as the Reds hand the Brewers their third straight loss.
TEX / 921 NYY UNDER 11.5
It's true that both these teams can put up plenty of runs. We saw that last night, as the series opener sailed above the total. The betting public was all over the 'over' in that game and they'll be favoring the over again. That has helped caused the over/under line for tonight's game to be significantly higher, which I feel has provided us with excellent value. It's important to note that last night's game featured a pair of right-handed starters. However, tonight's game features a pair of southpaw starters.
Pettitte gets the call for the visitors and he's seen the UNDER go 8-2 his last 10 starts and a highly profitable 17-6 on the season, including 9-2 on the road. Note that he has a excellent 3.50 ERA in those 11 road starts. Pettitte has also seen the UNDER go 7-2-1 his last 10 starts against Texas. Harrison goes for Texas and his numbers admittedly aren't too great. However, he has shown flashes of real potential, like when he held the best team in the league (Angels) to just two runs through seven innings, en route to a 3-2 Texas victory. Note that he'll have the advantage of facing the Yankees for the first time.
The Rangers entered last night's game with an impressive .302 average against right-handed starters while scoring a whopping 6.2 runs per game. Conversely, they enter tonight's game averaging just 4.6 vs. left-handed starters with a .265 average. The Yankees entered last night's game hitting .275 against right-handers, while averaging exactly five runs per game. However, they enter tonight's game averaging 4.4 runs vs. left-handers with a .264 batting average. They've seen the UNDER go 6-1 their last seven games against southpaw starters with ALL seven of those games producing 11 runs or less. Looking back further and we find the UNDER is 20-12-1 against southpaws this season and a highly profitable 67-48-6 the past three years. Look for tonight's game to be lower-scoring than expected once again with the final combined score falling beneath the inflated number.
Larry Ness
Atlanta Braves @ San Francisco Giants
PICK: Over 8
The Giants beat the Braves 4-2 last night for their third win in their last four games, despite scoring a total of just 10 runs. Prior to this little mini-streak, the Giants had been shut out in back-to-back games by the Dodgers in LA (last Tuesday and Wednesday) and going back to July 24, have plated just 25 runs in their last 11 games (that includes a 7-6 win at LA on July 28). Anyway, the Giant bats just may make some 'noise' tonight against Atlanta's Mike Hampton. Hampton had Tommy John surgery at the end of the 2005 season and has endured several injuries since then. He made his first start in nearly three years on July 26, allowing eight hits and six ERs (four innings) in a 10-9 loss to the Phillies (no decision). He then allowed seven hits and four ERs (five innings) in Atlanta's 9-4 with over the Cards on July 31 (another no-decision). Jonathan Sanchez will take the mound for San Fran and the lefty was pretty good for quite some time this year for the Giants (team won 13 of his first 17 starts). However, his good pitching seems to be a thing of the past, as he's 0-3 with an 8.57 ERA over his last five starts (SF is 0-5). Take the Over.
Stephen Nover
New York Yankees @ Texas Rangers
PICK: New York Yankees
Rangers lefty Matt Harrison shouldn't even be in the majors unless you think a 7.40 ERA is good. Harrison has allowed 31 hits in 24 1/3 innings. He's walked 14 and struck out just four. He wasn't that effective, or any kind of strikeout pitcher, when he was in Double and Triple A. He doesn't have a good bullpen to bail him out either.
The Yankees have the offense to take advantage. Their right-handed bats are more respectable now with Xavier Nady and Ivan Rodriguez added to the lineup.
Andy Pettitte is off maybe his worst start of the season. The lefty gave up nine runs and 10 hits in just 5 1/3 innings against the Angels on Thursday. Pettite has a strong bounce back history. That should be the case here.
The Rangers are 12-22 versus southpaws compared to 47-32 against right-handers. Texas is batting .260 against lefties, while hitting .290 versus right-handers.
Prior to his poor start against the Angels, Pettitte was 7-2 in his last nine starts with a 2.11 ERA. The Yankees were able to rest Mariano Rivera last night. So he's available in the unlikely case he's even needed.
Frank Rosenthal
903 FISH+140 SB
907 PADRES+150 SB
910 CARDS UNDER 8 SB
915 BRAVES OVER 8 SB+
921 YANKS-155 SB
OVER 11 SB+
926 CWS-140 SB
929 TWINS-135 SB
The Duke's Sports
Cincinnati (-120) for 2 Units
Brewers/Reds 7:10: The Brewers' Dave Bush has been shaky on the road (7.11 ERA) and should struggle in this spot; after all, Bush sports a bloated 8.38 ERA in four lifetime starts vs the Reds. The Reds counter with Edinson Volquez who pitches well at home. Volquez controls a 6-1 mark with a 3.34 ERA at home for Cincy. He also threw well at Milwaukee July, 8, 2008 - allowing just 1 ER in 7 innings. We'll look for Volquez to regain form tonight vs Milwaukee.
ChiSox (-139) [Floyd over Robertson] for 1 Unit
Big AL
Atlanta Braves / San Francisco Giants Over
TONY STEVENS
MILWAUKEE BREWERS
PHILADELPHIA PHILLIES -1.5
TORONTO BLUE JAYS -1.5
COLORADO ROCKIES -1.5
Black Magic Sports
1 Unit on Chicago White Sox -138
The White Sox will come together after their brawl against the Royals two days ago. After a day off, look for Chicago to be ready to roll at home tonight against the Tigers. The White Sox are 30-19 in their last 49 meetings with Detroit and 13-8 in their last 21 home meetings. Gavin Floyd is 3-0 with a 2.72 ERA lifetime against the Tigers. The White Sox are 6-1 in Floyd’s 7 starts against Detroit. Floyd is 7-2 with a 2.49 ERA at home in 2008. Nate Robertson is winless through his last three starts with a terrible 14.30 ERA. Robertson has given up 18 earned runs in his last 11 innings pitched. Floyd is the White Sox’ stopper this year. Floyd is 8-1 following a team loss and 7-0 following 2 consecutive team losses this year. Floyd brings his best stuff when his team needs him most. Cash in with the White Sox as the favorite.
Stan Sharp
Triple Dime Bet
Tampa Bay
Oscarxena Sports
St. Louis +1.08 (3 Unit Play)
The Dodgers are 24-28 on the road this year and they are road favorites against the Cardinals today - HUH! I understand that Chad Billingsley has been pitching very well and that he has a 2.84 ERA on the road this year but in the 22 games that Billingsley has started this year the Dodgers are 11-11. Billingsley has also lost both starts against the Cardinals and he has a 4.50 ERA in those two starts with a 2.20 WHIP. The reason that the Cardinals are underdogs I am sure is based on Chris Carpenter and because he is making only his second start of the year. Carpenter was held to just 67 pitches in his first start against the Braves but he has had ample rest and will slowly begin to build his innings up. Carpenter has pitched very well in his career against the Dodgers going 3-0 with a 3.00 ERA and a 1.048 WHIP. The Cardinals are 31-27 at home which is not a great home record but I trust Carpenter at home and I look for Albert Pujols to be on a mission tonight as he is 0 for his last 10 at bats. The Cardinals are a live home underdog tonight.