Robert Ferringo
3-Unit Play. Take #929 Minnesota (-135) over Seattle
Scott Baker is 11-6 in his 17 starts this season and has surrendered three runs or less in 14 of his 17 outings. The Mariners stole a win last night with a late rally but I see them coming back down to earth a bit today. R.A. Dickey is 3-7 as a starter for the M's and I see the Twins' lefty bats getting to him in a big way today. It seems like Seattle can only hit lefties, as they are 4-12 in their last 16 home games against right-handed starters. The Twins have been a very strong play over the last two months so we will have confidence that they can get it done in Seattle.
2-Unit Play. Take #908 New York Mets (-155) over San Diego
Getting home after a four-game losing streak was key for the Mets. But having the day off yesterday was even more crucial. I think they have their heads right and the home crowd will give them a big boost today. They have some serious revenge working for them because of that bizarre four-game sweep out in San Diego earlier in the year. Chris Young is not the same arm that he was last year and the Mets have won 10 of Mike Pelfrey's last 12 starts. The Mets snap their slide and get Game 1 of this series.
1.5-Unit Play. Take #920 Tampa Bay (-130) over Cleveland
The D-Rays have been dominant at home this season and I don't know if they will lose two in a row. They too have revenge for a sweep at the hands of the Indians and I think that they managed to get it done against the Tribe today. Fausto Carmona has not been sharp in his last three outings, sporting a 14.34 ERA in those three starts. Tampa is 40-12 in its last 52 home games and Cleveland is 12-30 in its last 42 road games, so I think a road sweep here is out of the question.
1.5-Unit Play. Take #129 Colorado (-160) over Washington
1-Unit Play. Take #912 Colorado (-1.5, +120) over Washington
Of all the upsets that occurred yesterday I think that this Nationals game was the strangest! Colorado is 7-1 against the Nats in Coors Field and is 13-3 against Washington overall. The Rockies crush left-handed pitching and the Nationals are 2-10 in John Lannan's last 12 starts. Jorge de la Rosa is one of my favorite fades, but he has won five of six home starts and I think he manages a decent outing today against one of the N.L.'s worst hitting teams against lefties.
1-Unit Play. Take #902 Chicago Cubs (-1.5, -110) over Houston
Looking for a bounceback game out of the Cubs today. Wandy Rodriquez has been solid this year on the road but his career numbers as a visitor are enough to make me feel confident in this one. Rich Harden has been stellar as a Cub and I think he is able to lock down the Astros this afternoon. Houston does not hit right-handed pitching and Harden is one of the best in the N.L. Conversely, the Cubs are No. 2 in the league against lefties and after a day off I look for D-Lee to lead the charge.
1-Unit Play. Take #906 Cincinnati (-120) over Milwaukee
We're playing against Team Turmoil here. Clearly there is a lot of frustration in the Brewers clubhouse as they slide further and further away from the Cubs for the Central lead. Now they have to go up against Ed Volquez today. Not good. The Reds are 6-4 against the Brewers this year and I think they just have Milwaukee's numbers. Dave Bush has done nothing to warrant any confidence in him and I think Cincy prolongs Milwaukee's misery - this time via a bullpen blowout from the Brewers.
1-Unit Play. Take #917 Oakland (+115) over Toronto
Greg Smith has pitched better than his record indicates and I just have to think that if Oakland is going to snap out of its funk Toronto wold be the place to do it. The A's had won three straight series in the Rogers Centre and are 8-2 in their last 10 in Toronto. The A's are in a slide, but I think they will find a way to scum out one victory in this series.
1-Unit Play. Take #926 Chicago White Sox (-140) over Detroit
I wanted to stay out of this series but this opening matchup is just too juicy. Nate Robertson is a mess. He really just isn't a very good pitcher and he is the wrong guy to have leading off a key series if you are the Tigers. Robertson has an ERA over 5.00 in his career against the Sox and he will be facing a team that is a little desperate after losing its toehold in first place. His counterpart is Gavin Floyd, who is 7-2 with a 2.49 ERA at home this year. I think the Sox strike first here - although Detroit will win one in this series - and get us a W.
Today's Totals
4.5-Unit Play. Take ‘Over’ 10.0 Baltimore at Los Angeles Angels
Note: This is our Total of the Week.
Baltimore obviously hasn't done much of a scouting report on the Angels. Because if they had they would know not to throw a left-handed pitcher into the fire as a call-up. Los Angeles smokes left-handed pitchers and the O's called up young Chris Waters to make his MLB debut against the best team in baseball. The 'over' is 21-6-1 in Baltimore's last 28 road games and is 5-1 in L.A.'s last six games overall. Baltimore burned through its bullpen yesterday and is facing a letdown after a late loss so I expect them to get rocked. Oh yeah, and our home plate ump is 15-5 against the total this year and 13 of his last 18 games behind the dish have seen double digits in runs.
1-Unit Play. Take ‘Under’ 8.0 San Diego at New York Mets
1-Unit Play. Take ‘Under’ 9.0 Milwaukee at Cincinnati
1-Unit Play. Take ‘Over’ 11.5 New York Yankees at Texas
1-Unit Play. Take ‘Over’ 7.0 Houston at Chicago Cubs
Black Widow Sports
1* on Oakland A’s +117
Scott Richmond makes his second career start tonight for Toronto, yet he’s listed as the favorite against the A’s tonight. Oakland will counter with Greg Smith (5-10, 4.04 ERA), who is 1-0 with a 1.42 ERA in two starts against Toronto this season. With Smith’s success against Toronto this year already, it’s a no-brainer to take the A’s here. Oakland is on a dreadful losing streak right now and it’s going to end tonight. The A’s are 7-1 in their last 8 games played at Toronto. Take Oakland on the Money Line.
Greg Shaker
STL / LOS Under 8
Two very solid throwers for this contest tonight. Only once in the last 10 games has the Dodger Pitcher been involved in a game with more than 7 runs scored total. He is throwing very well and coming off a shutout. Carpenter looked nice in his first start back. Both Pens are performing well and especially the Dodgers with an ERA Under 1 run over the last 12 games played. The Cards bats have been overall hot last 10 played but they will face their toughest task tonight. I do think 9 runs scored is going to be a large chore indeed.
CIN (-120) vs MIL
A very nice Away/Home situation tonight in Cincinnati with the Reds starter being very good at this park and Bush really not performing at all on the road. In 9 road ventures, Bush has an ERA right at the 7 mark. He has never had any success verses these Reds with 37 runs allowed in just over 38 innings. I will grab the much better thrower here and a Reds team that has been very competitive at this park. Nice odds as well for Volquez..
Charlies Sports
500* Mariners/Twins Under 8
30* Blue Jays -130
20* Reds -130
20* Cardinals -110
10* Mariners +110
10* Giants -125
Seabass
20* Hou Un
20* KC
50* CWS
50* Cincy
300* Min
Insider 100* Phillies
Brandon Lang
10 Dime - Phillies Run Line
10 Dime - Dodgers
10 Dime - White Sox
5 Dime - Twins
5 Dime - Reds
FREE - Blue Jays
Teddy June
LA Dodgers
VEGAS RUNNER
CIN (-125) vs MIL 3* MLB BEST BET of the DAY
ARI -1.5 (-120) vs PIT 1* RL WAGER
NYY (-160) vs TEX 2* ML WAGER
FLA (-135) vs PHI 1* ML WAGER
TAM (-132) vs CLE 2* ML WAGER
CWS (-144) vs DET 1* ML WAGER
MIN (-137) vs SEA 1* ML WAGER
The Hitman Guaranteed Selections
5000 LARGE PERFECT DIAMOND BASEBALL WINNER
NY Mets w/Pelfrey -156
Larry Ness
LAS VEGAS INSIDER
Chicago White Sox
Erin Rynning
Playmaker San Franciso
William Kidd Guaranteed Selections
QUADRUPLE DIME BASEBALL CRUSHER
Tampa Bay DevilRays
ANTON WINS
3 units San Diego +145
INDIAN COWBOY
Rangers/Yankees Under 11.5 (POD)
Pettitte had a 15+ era in his last start at home against the Angels, giving up 11 hits and 9 runs in just over 5 innings, he hasn't faced Texas this year, the Yankees lost to a walk-off grandslam against the Rangers who looked to have their closer blow it for them only to come back and win by 4 runs, I like Pettitte on the bounce-back today similar to Lee, we're able to get good value considering that Pettitte is on the road and the Yankees are on a bounce-back here as well, note that Harrison to is on a bounce-back and another Ranger game at home went over, having said that, this might be the first under in quite a long time in a Texas home game, lean on the under here as the juice on Pettitte on the road is ridiculous. I also think the Harrison kid shows up to pitch against the Yankees at home as he is in desperate need of a bounce-back as well.
write-up:
At some point, you have to buck the trend and say enough is enough and this line is inflated enough to take the other side. You have 2 pitchers on the bounce-back and a game in which Pettitte pitches that is over 11.5 a total, frankly, yesterday's game should have gone under at 5-4, but did not, the under is 7-1-1 for Pettitte when the total is set this high and he typically shows up against the Rangers as the total is 5-1-1 to the under when he pitches against Texas.
Mike Rose
3* FLA +135
3* OAK +120
3* NYY -160
3* BOS -165
3* STL +105