Gator Report
MLB 70% Super Situations
MLB Tuesday: Play Against MLB (NL) road underdogs with a money line of +100 or higher with a team that averages <=4.1 runs per game against a starting pitcher who has an E RA=4.20 to 5.20, with a starting pitcher whose WHIP is 1.250 or better on the season,35-6 SU since 1997 (85.4%).
PLAY: Houston Astros -120
MLB Top Angles
MLB Tuesday: Pittsburgh is 8-23 SU against the money line in home games versus a starting pitcher who gives up 0.5 or less HR's per start over the last 2 seasons
MLB Tuesday: Oswalt (Hou) is 14-3 SU against the money line versus an NL team with a team batting average of .255 or worse over the last 2 seasons. (Team's Record)
MLB Tuesday: Boston is 26-7 SU as a home favorite of -150 or more this season.
MLB Tuesday: Minnesota is 23-8 SU against the money line versus a bullpen whose ERA is 3.75 to 4.50 this season.
MLB Tuesday: Seattle is 0-12 SU against the money line after allowing 9 runs or more this season.
Jimmy The Moose
Seattle Mariners at Los Angeles Angels
Prediction: Over
Seattle has played the over in 6 of their last 8 games. The over is 7-3 in their last 10 games following an off day. The over is 7-1 in their last 8 games as an underdog. The Angels have also played the over in 6 of their last 8 games. The over is 5-2 in their last 7 home games. The over is 4-0 in the Angels last 4 games following an off day. Both team's have played over the total in 2 of their starting pitcher's last 3 games. Look for both teams to score runs tonight. Play the over.
SCOTT FERRALL
BASEBALL LOCKS FOR TUESDAY
Pirates (even odds) with Karstens over Volquez and the Reds--Karstens almost threw a perfect game his last outing and has looked brilliant for the Bucs since coming over from the Yankees
Atlanta +135 over the Cubs at Turner Field--Morton with the fat upset over Harden in Hot-Town
St.Louis (even odds) at Florida over Volstad and the Marlins--I still like Kyle Lohse when he goes to the mound for Tony LaRussa
NY -200 at Washington--Johan Santana will chew and spit out the hapless Nationals and Odalis Perez
SF (even odds) over Houston and Roy Oswalt at Minute Maid. I'm bettin on Tim Lincecum--he's been unreal this year--and better than Oswalt, that's for sure
Seattle +160 and Jared Washburn over Jon Garland and the Angels in Anaheim--because no one is going with the M's--except me !
Oakland +150 over TB--Kazmir got roughed up in his last start and I think the A's will get lucky with Gonzalez--and I love the payout if it hits
ChiSox -160 over KC and Brian Bannister, who simply blows--Vazquez will make it look easy
Blackburn -105 and Twins over Mussina and the Yanks at the Homerdome--I think the Yanks road trip will be the end of them--especially after getting swept at Anaheim by the Halos
BASEBALL OVER-UNDERS FOR TUESDAY
SEATT-LA ANGELS UNDER 9.5 RUNS
TB-OAK OVER 7.5 RUNS
KC-CHISOX OVER 9.5 RUNS
NY-MINN UNDER 8.5 RUNS
BALT-CLEVE OVER 10 RUNS
TOR-DET UNDER 8.5 RUNS
TEX-BOS OVER 11 RUNS
PHIL-LA DODGERS UNDER 7 RUNS
MILW-SD OVER 8 RUNS
ARIZ-COLO UNDER 9 RUNS
SF-HOUS UNDER 7.5 RUNS
NY-WASH OVER 7.5 RUNS
CARDS-MARLINS UNDER 9 RUNS
CUBS-BRAVES UNDER 8 RUNS
CINCY-PITT UNDER 8.5 RUNS
BASEBALL FREE B's FOR TUESDAY
Cleveland -120 over Baltimore--Sowers at home over Olson
Toronto -105 at Detroit--Burnett over Miner at Comerica--AJ has been tough as nails lately
Texas +145 on the road at Fenway against Boston--Feldman over Hansack--I've never even heard of him--thanks, I'll take the Rangers bats
Dodgers (even odds) over Hamels and the Phillies--Kershaw was lights out his last start, so I'm riding him until it ends
SD +110 with Baek on the upset special over Jeff Suppan and the Brewers
Arizona +125 at Colorado--Randy Johnson on the road at Coors over Jimenez
Marc Lawrence
Play On: NY Yankees
It's not often you'll find the Yankees playing off a shutout loss but such is the case here tonight. To the rescue is Twin-killer Mike Mussina who is 25-9 in his MLB career team starts against Minnesota. He's also in solid KW form with 4 walks and 33 strikeouts in his last six starts. With the Moose owning a super-sharp 2.94 ERA on the road, look for the Pinstripes to pull this one off here this evening.
Big Al Mcmordie
New York Yankees at Minnesota Twins
Prediction: New York Yankees
At 8:10 pm, our member selection is on the New York Yankees with Mike Mussina over Minnesota and Nick Blackburn. After battling injuries the last few years, the Moose is having a resurgent season, as he's gone 15-7 thus far for the Pinstripes, including a spectacular 6-1 away from home, with a 2.94 ERA. In his last game, Mussina threw seven shutout innings at Texas, and the Rangers are the best offensive club in baseball. His strikeout numbers in that victory reflected his dominance, as he whiffed six batters against just one walk. Blackburn has had a strong year as well, but struggled a bit in his last start (vs. light-hitting Seattle). Blackburn lasted just six innings, and put 10 Mariners on base, and gave up 3 runs. Look for the Yankees to win the second game of this series after dropping Monday night's game. Take New York.
DUNKEL
Cincinnati at Pittsburgh
The Pirates look to ride the hot arm of Jeff Karstens (15 scoreless innings in two starts since coming over from the Yankees) against a Cincinnati team that has lost six straight. Pittsburgh is the underdog pick (+115) according to Dunkel, which has the Pirates favored straight up by 2. Dunkel Pick: Pittsburgh (+115). Here are all of today's games.
TUESDAY, AUGUST 12
Game 951-952: Cincinnati at Pittsburgh
Dunkel Ratings: Cincinnati (Volquez) 12.676; Pittsburgh (Karstens) 14.678
Dunkel Line: Pittsburgh by 2; 8
Vegas Line: Cincinnati (-125); 8 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Pittsburgh (+115); Under
Game 953-954: Chicago Cubs at Atlanta
Dunkel Ratings: Chicago Cubs (Harden) 15.097; Atlanta (Morton) 15.921
Dunkel Line: Atlanta by 1; 7
Vegas Line: Chicago Cubs (-160); 8
Dunkel Pick: Atlanta (+150); Under
Game 955-956: St. Louis at Florida
Dunkel Ratings: St. Louis (Lohse) 15.086; Florida (Volstad) 16.449
Dunkel Line: Florida by 1 1/2; 9 1/2
Vegas Line: Florida (-115); 9
Dunkel Pick: Florida (-115); Over
Game 957-958: NY Mets at Washington
Dunkel Ratings: NY Mets (Santana) 15.162; Washington (Perez) 14.149
Dunkel Line: NY Mets by 1; 7
Vegas Line: NY Mets (-200); 7 1/2
Dunkel Pick: NY Mets (-200); Under
Game 959-960: San Francisco at Houston
Dunkel Ratings: San Francisco (Lincecum) 14.245; Houston (Oswalt) 15.352
Dunkel Line: Houston by 1; 6
Vegas Line: Houston (-115); 7 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Houston (-115); Under
Game 961-962: Arizona at Colorado
Dunkel Ratings: Arizona (Johnson) 14.752; Colorado (Jimenez) 13.523
Dunkel Line: Arizona by 1; 8 1/2
Vegas Line: Colorado (-135); 9
Dunkel Pick: Arizona (+125); Under
Game 963-964: Milwaukee at San Diego
Dunkel Ratings: Milwaukee (Suppan) 17.065; San Diego (Baek) 15.411
Dunkel Line: Milwaukee by 1 1/2; 8 1/2
Vegas Line: Milwaukee (-120); 8
Dunkel Pick: Milwaukee (-120); Over
Game 965-966: Philadelphia at LA Dodgers
Dunkel Ratings: Philadelphia (Hamels) 15.175; LA Dodgers (Kershaw) 16.700
Dunkel Line: LA Dodgers by 1 1/2; 6
Vegas Line: Philadelphia (-125); 7
Dunkel Pick: LA Dodgers (+115); Under
Game 967-968: Texas at Boston
Dunkel Ratings: Texas (Feldman) 15.608; Boston (Zink) 17.381
Dunkel Line: Boston by 1 1/2; 11 1/2
Vegas Line: No Line
Dunkel Pick: N/A
Game 969-970: Toronto at Detroit
Dunkel Ratings: Toronto (Burnett) 15.184; Detroit (Miner) 14.168
Dunkel Line: Toronto by 1; 8
Vegas Line: Detroit (-115); 8 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Toronto (+105); Under
Game 971-972: Baltimore at Cleveland
Dunkel Ratings: Baltimore (Olsen) 15.763; Cleveland (Sowers) 15.394
Dunkel Line: Baltimore by 1/2; 12
Vegas Line: Cleveland (-115); 10
Dunkel Pick: Baltimore (+105); Over
Game 973-974: NY Yankees at Minnesota
Dunkel Ratings: NY Yankees (Mussina) 15.215; Minnesota (Blackburn) 16.477
Dunkel Line: Minnesota by 1; 9 1/2
Vegas Line: NY Yankees (-110); 8 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Minnesota (+100); Over
Game 975-976: Kansas City at Chicago White Sox
Dunkel Ratings: Kansas City (Bannister) 15.715; White Sox (Vazquez) 14.660
Dunkel Line: Kansas City by 1; 10
Vegas Line: Chicago White Sox (-165); 9 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Kansas City (+155); Over
Game 977-978: Tampa Bay at Oakland
Dunkel Ratings: Tampa Bay (Kazmir) 16.710; Oakland (Gonzalez) 13.726
Dunkel Line: Tampa Bay by 3; 7
Vegas Line: Tampa Bay (-160); 7 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Tampa Bay (-160); Under
Game 979-980: Seattle at LA Angels
Dunkel Ratings: Seattle (Washburn) 15.132; LA Angels (Garland) 17.098
Dunkel Line: LA Angels by 2; 10 1/2
Vegas Line: LA Angels (-170); 9 1/2
Dunkel Pick: LA Angels (-170); Over
SPORTS ADVISORS
NATIONAL LEAGUE
St. Louis (66-55) at Florida (62-57)
Kyle Lohse (13-4, 3.80 ERA) goes for win No. 14 when he leads the Phillies against the Marlins and rookie right-hander Chris Volstad (3-2, 2.67) as this four-game series between playoff hopefuls continues at Dolphin Stadium.
St. Louis took Monday’s game 4-2, dealing Florida its third loss in its last four games. Both teams have been very inconsistent of late, with the Cardinals just 5-6 in their last 11 and the Marlins going 10-11 in their last 21 contests. Also, St. Louis has lost 12 of its last 17 games against winning teams, while Florida has won 11 of its last 14 at home against clubs that sport a winning road record.
These teams are seeing each other for the first time in 2008. However, the Cardinals have owned this rivalry in recent years, winning 11 of the last 14 meetings overall and seven of the last eight in South Beach following Monday’s triumph.
Lohse has been off his game in his last three outings, going 1-2 with a bloated 7.27 ERA, failing to record a quality start in any of the three contests. In fact, the Cardinals are just 1-3 in his last four starts. On the road this year, Lohse is 6-2 despite a 5.16 ERA, and he’s a perfect 9-0 with a 2.52 ERA in 13 nighttime starts. Finally, he’s 2-1 with a 4.26 ERA in three career outings versus the Marlins.
Volstad has delivered a quality start in four of his first five big-league outings, with his best effort coming in Thursday’s 3-0 victory at Philadelphia, as he scattered three hits and four walks over six shutout innings. However, both of Volstad’s defeats have come at home, where he has a 5.73 ERA (seven earned runs allowed in 11 innings).
For St. Louis, the over is on streaks of 11-4-1 overall, 10-2-1 on the road and 7-2-1 versus the N.L. East. On the other hand, the under is 7-3 in Florida’s last 10 overall, 5-0 in Volstad’s first five big-league starts and 6-2 in the last eight Cardinals-Marlins clashes.
ATS ADVANTAGE:ST. LOUIS
Philadelphia (64-54) at L.A. Dodgers (59-59)
A battle of young, hard-throwing left-handers is on tap at Dodger Stadium, where the Phillies’ Cole Hamels (9-8, 3.35) opposes 20-year-old Clayton Kershaw (2-3, 3.71) as these teams resume their four-game series.
Los Angeles built a 6-0 lead in Monday’s series opener, then held on for an 8-4 victory, ending a modest two-game slide while pulling within a game of first-place Arizona in the N.L. West race. The Dodgers are now on runs of 9-3 at home, 5-1 against southpaw starters and 5-0 versus the N.L. West.
The Phillies, who had a two-game winning streak snapped with last night’s defeat, have still won 10 of their last 15 overall, and they’re also on runs of 5-2 on the road and 23-10 when playing on Tuesdays.
Hamels was a tough-luck loser yet again in his last start, giving up three runs (two earned) on seven hits in 6 1/3 innings, but his offense hung him out to dry in a 3-0 setback. Philadelphia is just 2-4 in Hamels’ last six outings, even though he’s given up two earned runs or fewer in four of those contests.
Kershaw has been lights out in his last three starts, giving up one run on 11 hits with 15 strikeouts in 19 innings (0.47 ERA). He’s 2-0 during this three-start stretch, including Thursday’s 4-1 win at St. Louis. Kershaw has surrendered two runs or fewer in eight of his first 12 major-league starts.
Hamels is 4-2 with a 3.75 ERA in six road starts, and he’s yet to face the Dodgers in his young career. Meanwhile, Kershaw is 1-2 despite a 2.81 ERA in six games at Dodger Stadium, and he’s making his first career start against Philadelphia in this one.
For Los Angeles, the under streaks include 12-6 overall, 27-12 at Dodger Stadium, 6-1 against lefty starters, 3-0 with Kershaw on the bump and 5-1 with Kershaw working at home. Also, the under is 5-1 in Philadelphia’s last six overall. However, with last night’s high-scoring affair, the over is now 8-2-1 in the last 11 series clashes between these clubs, including 7-0-1 at Dodger Stadium.
ATS ADVANTAGE:NONE
AMERICAN LEAGUE
N.Y. Yankees (63-56) at Minnesota (66-52)
The slumping Yankees send their best pitcher to the mound tonight in the Metrodome, as Mike Mussina (15-7, 3.27) battles the Twins and youngster Nick Blackburn (9-6, 3.60) in the middle game of a three-game set between teams fighting for a playoff spot.
Minnesota continued its recent dominance at home with Monday’s 4-0 shutout win over New York. The Twins are on a 21-5 roll inside the dome, going 6-2 in the last eight and 5-0 in Blackburn’s last five home starts. Additionally, Minnesota has won four of its last five and 11 of its last 16 overall. On the downside, despite last night’s win, Ron Gardenhire’s club has struggled with the Yankees in recent years, losing 39 of the last 54 meetings overall, including five of eight this season, but the team is 5-2 the last seven times its has faced Mussina.
Since coming out of the All-Star break with an eight-game winning streak, New York has lost 11 of its last 16, including six of the past eight (all on the road) and the last four in a row. However, the Yankees are 4-1 in Mussina’s last five trips to the hill overall and 6-1 in his last seven on the road.
Mussina was brilliant on Thursday at Texas, pitching seven scoreless innings en route to a 3-0 victory. Take out one bad hiccup at home against the Orioles on July 28, and the Moose has delivered seven consecutive starts in which he pitched at least six innings and allowed two runs or less in each contest, notching a 1.17 ERA in those seven outings.
Mussina is 6-1 with a 2.94 ERA in eight road starts this season and 22-6 with a 3.06 ERA in 32 career starts against the Twins, including 2-0 with a 1.29 ERA in two outings this year.
Like Mussina, Blackburn has been rock solid of late, allowing two earned runs or fewer in 11 of his last 15 starts, going 2-0 with a 2.25 ERA in the last three. The right-hander is also 6-2 with a 2.54 ERA in 10 starts at home, eight of which Minnesota has won.
Blackburn’s only two career starts against the Yankees came earlier this year with opposite results: He gave up a run on five hits in 4 1/3 innings on June 1 at home, getting a no-decision in his team’s 5-1 victory, then went to Yankee Stadium on July 21 and got torched for six runs (three earned) in just 1 2/3 innings of a 12-4 defeat.
For Minnesota, the over is on runs of 5-2 overall, 4-2 against a right-handed starter and 4-0-1 on Tuesdays, while the Yankees have topped the total in 12 of their last 17 overall and seven of their last nine as a favorite. Also, the over is 13-7 in the last 20 series meetings between these teams in Minnesota.
ATS ADVANTAGE:MINNESOTA and OVER
Jim Feist
TOR Blue Jays and DET Tigers
Take DET Tigers
Toronto has one of the weakest offenses in the AL, 11th in runs scored, even scoring 4 total runs in 3 games at Cleveland. Starter A.J. Burnett has an ERA of 5.40 this season against the powerful Detroit offense, plus a career 8.68 ERA in 18 innings against them. The Tigers are second in the AL in runs scored and average 5.7 runs per game at home. Starter Zach Miner has been strong all year (3.57 ERA) and is 2-1 with a 3.12 ERA his last three starts. A great spot for the home dog, Play the Tigers.
Dave Cokin
ARI D'backs and COL Rockies
Take ARI D'backs
Ubaldo Jimenez has done some outstanding work for the Rockies, and Colorado can usually be counted on to do some damage against lefties. But Randy Johnson seems to have suddenly located the fountain of youth and I have to believe the Diamondbacks get a big mental boost with the addition of Adam Dunn. The Rockies are playing lousy ball and may be in towel-tossing mode right now, so I'm taking Arizona tonight.
JEFFERSONSPORTS
MLB EARLY RELEASE FOR TUESDAY
PITTSBURGH -105
PlusLineSports
Chicago Cubs vs Atlanta
Chicago-1.5 (+102)
TONY STEVENS
METS -1.5 -122
CUBS -1.5 +102
ASTROS -115
BLUE JAYS +109
BREWERS -120
Black Widow Sports
1* on Philadelphia Phillies -119
Rarely will you see Cole Hamels at this kind of a price, but we’re not about to let this value slip away without a lofty wager. Hamels is one of the best in the game, with 9 wins and a 3.35 ERA to go along with 147 strikeouts already this year. His 1.068 WHIP says it all, this guy rarely puts batters on base. Clayton Kershaw has a 1.533 WHIP on the year, so the Phillies will have plenty of runners on base to work with. They don’t leave runners on base very often either with one of the best lineups in baseball. The Phillies are 18-9 (+9.5 Units) against the money line on the road when the money line is +125 to -125 this season. Philly is 21-9 (+13.1 Units) against the money line vs. NL teams allowing 4.3 or less runs/game on the season this season. The Dodgers are 9-28 (-21.6 Units) against the money line when playing against a good team (Win Pct. 54% to 62%) in the second half of the season over the last 3 seasons. Take the Phillies on the money line.
Info Plays
3* on Minnesota Twins +122
Play Against - All favorites with a money line of -110 or higher (NY YANKEES) - excellent fielding team - averaging <=0.5 errors/game on the season against opponent with a hot starting pitcher- WHIP <= 1.100 over his last 10 games. This is a 76-43 ML System hitting 63.9% and gaining 48.8 Units since 1997. Nick Blackburn 2-0 with a 2.25 ERA over his last 3 starts and 6-2 with a 2.54 ERA at home this season. He’s no slouch. Bet the Twins at home.
Black Magic Sports
1 Unit on Florida Marlins -114
Clint Volstad has become a force in the Marlins’ starting rotation this season. Volstad is 3-2 with a 2.67 ERA, pitching 6 shutout innings at Philadelphia in his last start on August 7th. Holding the Phillies scoreless is no easy task for even the biggest names in the game. Kyle Lohse looks to have lost his magic, going 1-2 with a bold 7.27 ERA through his last three starts. St. Louis is 3-12 in road games vs. an NL team with a batting average of .255 or worse in the second half of the season over the last 3 seasons. The Marlins are now 11-3 in their last 14 home games vs. a team with a winning road record. Following a tough loss to the Cards last night, I like the Marlins to bounce back Tuesday. Cash in with Florida as the favorite.