Matt Fargo
A.L. Runline Game of the Week
TAMPA BAY
Big Board Sports
NY Mets -1.5
Big Al
Tampa Bay / Oakland Over
Wunderdog
Chicago at Atlanta
Pick: Chicago -161
This is a Braves team that looked like they would be challenging in the NL East again, but that was way back when they owned a 28-23 mark. That has dramatically changed over the last couple of months that has seen the Braves take a nosedive out of the NL East, as well as wild card contention as they have struggled to a 27-40 mark since. The Cubs were out of the gate early and often in the win column, but hit a mid-season snag that saw them post a 15-19 mark over 34 games and the questions began to arise. Those questions have since been answered with an 11-3 run. This means the Cubs have now sandwiched a 56-28 season around that bad 15-19 mark. The rotation got better when they acquired Rich Harden from the A's. Harden is healthy and having a huge year where he has posted a 2.27 ERA and even lower against the Cubs at 2.10. Charlie Morton makes his 10th big-league start and with an ERA of close to six he has been mostly ineffective. The Cubs are hot and have their best pitcher on the hill, and should school the Atlanta rookie here.
Ben Burns
Chicago Cubs @ Atlanta Braves Aug
PICK: Chicago Cubs
I don't typically play many road favorites and this price is a bit steep to qualify as one of my guaranteed selections. That being said, the Cubs should enjoy a significant enough advantage to justify 'laying the wood.' For starters, the Cubs are a much better hitting team than the Braves. The Cubs average 5.3 runs per game, while the Braves average 4.6. Of course, those numbers were mostly derived from the Braves lineup which included slugger Mark Teixeira, now a member of the Angels. It's on the mound where Chicago figures to enjoy their biggest edge though.
Harden gets the call for the visitors and he's simply one of the best in the game. For the season, he's 6-2 with a 2.27 ERA and 1.112 WHIP. That includes a 2.51 ERA on the road. He beat the Braves here at Atlanta, outpitching Hudson, back in May. In that outing, he allowed just four hits and one run, through seven complete innings. That's a 1.29 ERA and 0.714 WHIP! Note that he had an impressive eight K's while walking just one batter. Charlie Morton goes for Atlanta and he's struggled, to say the least. While Morton is admittedly coming off a very well-pitched game, that was on the road. He's been brutal at home. Indeed, he's 0-4 with a terrible 8.39 ERA and 1.743 WHIP in his five home starts, averaging less than five innings in those starts. It's true that the Cubs haven't been as good on the road. However, they're still 7-3 the last 10 times they were listed as road favorites in the -150 to -175 range. They're also a perfect 5-0 their last five road games overall. Consider Chicago.
Jeff Alexander Sports
1 Unit on Cleveland Indians -125
The Orioles haven't had much success in Cleveland at just 7-24 in the last 31 meetings there. The Tribe has won 4 straight and 8 of its last 11 as a home fave of -110 to -150. The Indians are alsi 4-1 in Sowers' last 5 starts as a home favorite of -110 to -150. The Orioles are just 12-31 in their last 43 games vs. a left-handed starter and 3-10 in their last 13 vs. a team with a losing record. We expect the O's to struggles against another lefty here tonight. Take the Tribe.
Indiancowboy Comp
Rangers +174
Washburn has had a rough go of it in his last 2 road starts, but always remember, he faces his old ballclub today so the nerves and the fire will be there today, the Angels do have a 6 and a 6.75 era against him this year though defeating him both times 1-4 and 2-4, Garland rarely does not lose back to back games and had nearly a 4 era in his last start which he lost and Seattle roughed him up in Seattle last time getting 12 hits in 5 innings off of him - I remember, I was on Seattle in that game and if anything, Garland bounces back here - BUT wait, over 70% are riding the Angels, nearly 2:1 value here on Washburn, and remember what I always say, it is very, very tough for a team to defeat a pitcher 3 times in a row. I am tempted to take the Angels here just based on value as it is the biggest public fade today in mlb and that is with nearly 2:1 value. It takes a lot of galls to make this play, but remember, Garland is just 2-5 when he faces teams with a losing record, the Mariners have had success against him, this is one of the biggest public plays on the board today and Washburn looks to avoid losing 3 games in a row to his old ballclub, I'll take my chances here given the payout as I am no stranger to underdogs which have cashed at a solid rate the last 3 months including the Indians the other night with a similar payout with Paul Byrd on the mound at around +174.
Dwayne Bryant
New York Yankees at Minnesota Twins
Play: New York Yankees -132
Behind a four-hit, eight-inning performance from Glen Perkins, Minnesota beat New York 4-0 in Monday's series opener to shut out the Yankees at home for the first time since June 24, 1996. The victory, coupled with Chicago's 5-1 loss to Boston, gives the Twins a one-half game lead over the White Sox in the division. Twice this month, Minnesota has held the same slight advantage over Chicago only to lose its ensuing contest and give up the outright lead.
The Yankees' Mike Mussina (15-7, 3.27 ERA) looks for a third straight victory after allowing eight hits in seven innings of a 3-0 win at Texas on Thursday. The 39-year-old is 5-1 with a 2.00 ERA in his last seven starts and looks for his seventh consecutive winning decision on the road. The right-hander is 22-6 with a 3.06 ERA in 32 career starts versus the Twins and 2-0 with a 1.29 ERA in two outings this seasons, including eight scoreless innings during a 5-1 win over Minnesota on July 23.
Rookie Nick Blackburn (9-6, 3.60) takes the ball looking for a third straight victory for the Twins. He allowed three runs and nine hits in six innings of a 7-3 win at Seattle on Wednesday. The right-hander will face the Yankees for the third time this season after going 0-1 with a 6.00 ERA in his previous two starts.
The Yankees are 6-1 in their last 7 games as a favorite of -110 to -150 and 5-0 in Mussina's last 5 starts during game 2 of a series.
Take the Yankees
Larry Ness
Cincinnati Reds @ Pittsburgh Pirates
PICK: Pittsburgh Pirates
The Reds did not play yesterday but the team was not idle. After sending Junior to the White Sox at the trade deadline back on July 31, the Reds sent Adam Dunn and his 32 HRs west to Arizona, Monday. The Reds open a three-game series in Pittsburgh tonight with the longest active losing streak in MLB at six straight. They are an NL-worst 6-17 since the break and have lost 14 of their last 16. Edinson Volquez (13-5, 2.93 ERA) still owns a pretty nice looking W-L mark but in four starts since he pitched in this year's All Star game, his ERA is an 'ugly' 6.64. The Pirates are no bargain but they still own a respectable home mark, having gone 32-26 at PNC Park. The Reds are only 21-36 on the road this year and that includes an 11-22 vs right-handers, with a 9-18 mark in night games (averaging 3.9 RPG). Jeff Karstens will make his third start for Pittsburgh, since being acquired from the Yankees on July 26 in a six-player deal that featured the Yanks getting Pittsburgh's Xavier Nady. Karstens had made seven appearances (three starts) for the Yankees prior to the deal and was just horrific, posting an 11.05 ERA. However, he's pitched 15 scoreless innings for the Pirates in winning 3-0 at Wrigley against the Cubs on August 1 and retired the first 23 batters he faced at Arizona on August 6, winning a complete game shutout, 2-0. I'm taking Pittsburgh.
Bob Akmen
10* Chisox / KC Over 9.5
10* Colorado / Arizona Under 9.0
The Hitman Guaranteed Selections
5000 LARGE AMERICAN LEAGUE GAME OF THE YEAR
LA Angels w/Garland -184
John Ryan
Milwaukee Brewers vs. San Diego Padres
Pick: Over
Ai Simulator 10* graded play OVER Milwaukee/SD – Ais shows an 87% probability that 8 or more runs will be scored in this game. Supporting this graded play is a system that has gone 35-11 for 76% since 1997. Play over with road teams where the total is 7 to 8.5 after allowing 4 runs or less 5 straight games and is facing an opponent after scoring 8 runs or more. Milwaukee starter Suppan has not done well against SD in his career. He has posted a 4-4 when starting against SD with an ERA of 6.23 and a WHIP of 1.827. SD is 15-5 OVER (+10.0 Units) versus a NL starting pitcher whose ERA is 4.20 to 4.70 over the last 2 seasons; 24-12 OVER (+11.8 Units) versus a starting pitcher whose strikes out 3 or less batters per start over the last 2 seasons. Milwaukee is 7-1 OVER this season and 14-4 OVER the past 3 seasons after allowing 4 runs or less 5 straight games. Take the OVER
Chris James Sports
Los Angeles Angels
The Angels open a two-game set tonight agasint the league's worst team, the Seattle Mariners. The Angels look to continue to dominate at home where they are 36-22 on the year. They send Jon Garland to the mound who is 10-7 on the year with a 4.28 ERA. He is 6-3 lifetime versus the Mariners with an ERA of 3.39. This is a high price for Garland aginst anyone, even the Mariners, which is one of the reason's why I love this game tonight! Let's take pitching out of it for right now and just look at some other numbers. The Angels are 14-3 in their last 17 home games. They are 22-7 in their last 29 games vs a left-handed starter. They are 42-19 in their last 61 games overall. They are 105-45 their last 150 games vs. teams below .400. Should I continue? What that means is it doesn't matter who the Angels have throwing for them tonight, they are just that good. But just for fun, let's look at Seattle. They send Jarrod Washburn to the mound who is 5-11 with a 4.76 ERA. The Mariners are 6-16 in his starts this season. He is 0-2 versus the Angels this year with a 6.35 ERA. The Mariners are 5-23 in Washburn's last 28 starts on grass. They are 9-24 in his last 33 starts overall. They are 1-7 in Washburn's last 8 starts as a road underdog of 151-200. The Mariners are 0-12 after allowing 9 runs or more this season and 0-9 after allowing 10 runs or more. They are 1-4 in their last 5 overall and 2-9 in their last 11 road games vs. a team with a home winning percentage greater than .600. The truth is in the numbers and they tell us that the Angels should easily win this game! And the juice only matters if you lose so don't worry about the price here!
Play Los Angeles Angels
Erin Rynning
Playmaker: Minnesota Twins
Fairway Jay
3* Chicago Cubs -1.5
3* Brewers/Padres Under 8