Hawkeye Sports
Red Sox
Totals4u
Col/Lad Over
Jack Clayton
Texas
MIGHTY QUINN
Indians
Armvin Sports
Blue Jays -125
Rocco Spacamuro
100* Cards
Lance's Lock
Rays -120
floridabookybusters
Washington
DutchMaster
Houston
John Fina
Marlins -140
Cappers Access
Cubs -1.5
Tigers
Glen Mcgrew
Wash/Phil Under
Joe Wiz
Angels
Cards
Online Sports Winners
Milwaukee
Global Sports Picks
RAYS -115
TRIPLE THREAT SPORTS
Colorado/La Dodgers Under
MJP
BOSTON RED SOX -1.5
DETROIT TIGERS -115
TIGERS/RANGERS Under 11
#1 SPORTS
REDS + 270
ARTHUR RALPH
Chi White Sox
VEGAS STEAM LINE
DETROIT/TEXAS UNDER
Tony Mathews
Royals +155
Gold Key
Florida at SAN FRANCISCO Over 8
MIKE WYNN
NY Mets
RAZOR SHARP
HOUSTON/MILWAUKEE UNDER
BIG TIME SPORTS
TIGERS/RANGERS OVER 11
Tony Weston
The Texas Rangers jump out to a solid 3-0 lead then couldn’t make it hold up THEN don’t do enough to complete the comeback falling to the Detroit Tigers last night, giving us a Comp Play loss.
Damn the Rangers. That’s fine. We’re coming back tonight, switching gears as we go to the National League where the Colorado Rockies will get over on the Los Angeles Dodgers.
Early lines are going heavy on the Dodgers as the favorite tonight. Big mistake. A good majority of that factor has to do with tonight’s scheduled starting pitchers, the Rockies’ Ubaldo Jimenez, who is only 1-2 in his last three starts with a 5.00 ERA and the Dodgers’ Hiroki Kuroda, who is 2-0 in his last three starts with a 1.21 ERA.
But you need to look way past that to understand why Colorado will win tonight.
First, the Rockies are 5-2 in their last seven games against the Dodgers, including a 4-1 mark their last five meetings. In their last two games on July 22 and 23, both Jimenez and Kuroda took the mound, but did not face each other. However, in Jimenez’s start the Rockies won 10-1 and in Kuroda’s start the Dodgers’ lost 5-3.
Also consider that in their last series in Los Angeles, the Rockies won each of the last two games, beating the Dodgers 3-0 then 2-1.
Also consider that the Rockies are 4-1 in their last five games overall and are on a three-game winning streak, while the Dodgers split their last two games.
Go with Colorado to continue its winning ways against the Dodgers.
3♦ ROCKIES
Locksmith Sports Picks
1 Unit on NY Mets -193
We'll take the first place Mets to crush the struggling Braves tonight. The Braves are 1-7 in their last 8 overall, 4-11 in their last 15 vs. the National League East, and 0-6 in their last 6 road games vs. a team with a home winning % of greater than .600. The Mets are 6-1 in their last 7 overall, 9-2 in their last 11 home games vs. a team with a losing record, and 15-5 in their last 20 home games. With as much as the Braves have struggled with southpaws (3-9 in their last 12 road games vs. a left-handed starter), Perez gives the Mets the edge here. The Mets are 6-0 in Perez's last 6 starts vs. the National League East and 4-0 in Perez's last 4 home starts. Bet the Mets.
THE BOOKIE PAYS YOU:
=================================================================
We won't be releasing a pick for Tuesday. We will resume on Wednesday, and all of your memberships will be adjusted with an extra day added to the end of your membership. Thanks, and sorry for the inconvenience.
=================================================================
My comment: Well, they boasted their way to two losses in a row. Look for them to
make a comeback on Wednesday after licking their wounds today. ;D
Players of America
Washington Nationals vs. Philadelphia Phillies
The Play: Philadelphia Phillies -1.5
Star Value: 1* (10 Units)
OK, back on our feet a little bit and heading towards that turn around like we mentioned. Boston came through for us last night in Baltimore, and they really looked like that team their supposed to be. Keep an eye on that squad as we wind down to the end of the regular season. We'll now take a look at Tuesday's card, and there's not a whole lot cookin' besides a handful of chalk layers.
Our first release happens to be one of those chalk layers, but we're going to save ourselves the heart attack and take advantage of the run line. At 7:05PM EST, the Philadelphia Phillies host the God awful Washington Nationals at home. The Phillies are in prime-time hunt position right now, and they are in that group of teams that NEEDS TO WIN starting now. We realize we harp on that statement left and right, but it's the truth.especially in this league. Team's need to win, and that's what motivates them. It is a lot harder to persuade people of that concept a month into the season, but right now.it is dead on. Philadelphia -1.5 runs is even money at +100.
Skipper Charlie Manuel and staff are set to give the ball to righty Joe Blanton to start. Joe comes in 1-0 on the season with the Phillies, pitching 27 innings. His ERA is decent at 3.98. He's thrown very well his last three times out getting one decision at 1-0 and accumulating an ERA of 2.37, with a WHIP of 1.11. The Philles are hungry. They are 4-6 in their last ten overall, and like we said.it is time to kick start things. The entire squad should be very well rested with a day off Monday, and heads should be sky high as they continue their hunt for the division. Philadelphia owns the series this season with the Nats at 6-3 in 9 total meetings.
Where do you start with a team like Washington? They weren't predicted to be anything special this season, and they've really lived up to that. They are 0-10 in their last 10 overall and things do not get any easier going into Philly. Jason Bergmann is the scheduled starter for the Nationals. Jason comes in a lousy 2-9 overall on the year with an ERA up over 4.50. It is not that Bergmann is a terrible pitcher, but this National's team just honestly is not very good. Washington is completely decimated with injuries, Jesus Flores, Cristian Guzman, Wily Mo Pena, Alberto Gonzalez, Elijah Dukes, Dmitri Young and Nick Johnson are all OUT, just to name a few. The Nationals bullpen is weak and the available heavers have an ERA over 4.25 for tonight's event. Things only get worse for the 44-81 Nat's tonight, guys.
There are no secrets here. Philadelphia wins this one and everyone knows it. We're confident they can do so by two or more runs so this is a must-bet. We'll go with a 1* / 10 unit wager on Philadelphia returning home on Tuesday night.
TRENDS OF THE GAME:
-The Phillies are 6-3 overall against the Nationals this season
-The Nationals are 15-39 in their last 54 overall
-The Nationals are 12-30 in their last 42 Tuesday games
Philadelphia 6, Washington 2
New York Yankees vs. Toronto Blue Jays
The Play: New York Yankees +120.0
Star Value: 1* (10 Units)
Our next selection is an eye roller, but we'll be on the Yankees. Too much power, too much experience and too much class to just completely roll over and play dead at this point in the season. Regardless of needing to win or making a late playoff push, this team is better than what their record shows, period. With that being said, the New York Yankees are also coming off a day's worth of rest and will head to the dome in Toronto tonight at 7:05PM EST.
New York has had their woes in the starting pitching rotation this season, something rather uncommon from the past years. Darrell Rasner comes in and this guy is par at best. His 5-9 record doesn't stun anyone and he has an ERA over 5.00 runs. The clear advantage goes to Toronto in this game when it comes to STARTING pitching. Lucky for us, starters aren't the only factor in a baseball game. They might be a big one, but they aren't the only. The Yankee's lineup is twice, maybe three times as good as Toronto's. The Blue Jays might be flying high after beating up on a pathetic Detroit team last week, but snap-snap.back to reality.
As stated, Toronto will put a better AJ Burnett on the mound this evening. AJ is 15-10 overall, and his ERA is approaching 5.00 too (at 4.70). AJ is a good anchor in this rotation, but he doesn't always get the run support he might need to win a ballgame. The Blue Jays bullpen is usually very impressive, and we noted that a few weeks ago when we placed a wager on them. However, in the last four games the Jays pen has given up an average of 4.85 runs per game. Not good. Another key pointer, the Jays will be without Scott Rolen as he has been placed on the 15 day DL to rest a troublesome right shoulder.
All in all, the Yankees are just as capable of winning this ball game as Toronto, if not more. We all know the capabilities of the line up offensively and defensively the Yanks are well above average, too. At this price, it's a nice spot to take a look. We'll be on the Yankees as a 1* / 10 unit wager on Tuesday night in Toronto.
TREND OF THE GAME:
-The Yankees are 6-2 in their last 8 games coming off a rest day
New York 8, Toronto 5
Los Angeles Angels vs. Tampa Bay Rays
The Play: Los Angeles Angels +110.0
Star Value: 1* (10 Units)
Next, we'll be zooming in on another likely-public underdog and this one kicks off at 7:10PM EST from the Sunshine State. The Tampa Bay Rays are set to host the visiting Anaheim Angels. These two teams slugged it out last night with the Rays coming out on top. Again, another bargain price on a team fully capable of winning here. Tampa Bay was the talk of the town just a few short weeks ago, and suddenly they too have snapped back to reality and shown that they are human. In addition, injuries have been a problem recently for the Rays, so being short staffed could be an issue.
The Halos don't really have a weak link in their rotation, and if they did.this wouldn't be the guy. Righty Ervin Santana will start and Ervin comes in at 13-5 overall. He's tallied an ERA of 3.49 in those games and a WHIP of 1.14 (162.2 total innings). Santana went 2-0 in his last three starts and has an ERA of just 2.90 in those games. Both of these teams are playing some pretty good hardball right now winning 6 and 7 of their last 10. You want to talk about playoff implications.this game is it. Both teams are atop and want to stay right there.
Tampa will give it to James Shields who could probably run for mayor in Florida. His 10-7 record has lit the city on fire this season and he's pretty well liked.and rightfully so. James is a solid pitcher with good command. He has an ERA of 3.75 this season and is 1-0 in his last three starts, handing over two decisions. In the bottom halves of the inning, the Rays are going to be a little short. All star third baseman Evan Longoria remains on the DL while recovering from a wrist injury and powerhouse left fielder Carl Crawford will join him (right hand). Those two take away from the meat of this line up and sure they have replacements, but nothing like them.
This one here is another great price. Spotting this value is what smart bettors do, and this is pure value. Look for Anaheim to come out smoking, jumping on top early. The Halos on the road are well worthy of a 1* / 10 unit wager Tuesday night.
TRENDS OF THE GAME:
-The Angels are 22-6 in their last 28 Tuesday games
-The Angels are 21-8 in their last 29 overall
-The Angels are 48-20 in their last 68 meetings with the Rays
-The Rays are 25-58 in their last 83 Tuesday games
Anaheim 4, Tampa Bay 2
Detroit Tigers vs. Texas Rangers
The Play: Texas Rangers +110.0
Star Value: 1* (10 Units)
One last one for Tuesday and it happens to be another slight dog. The Texas Rangers play host to the Detroit Tigers starting at 8:05PM EST. Texas' offense hasn't lived up to its reputation in their last five games but things change right here. They are facing an overhyped, overrated Detroit team who has seemingly given up on this season (we all know that.). Leyland and company has said it publically himself that things need to change. It's a shame, but its reality. Detroit was the talk of the town in preseason ball, only to come out and disappoint the world. Texas is one of those under-the-radar type teams and this is a great spot for them to be in.
The Rangers will start Vicente Padilla and if we remember correctly we wagered on this guy about a week ago. He is underrated, like so many other pitchers in this league. Padilla is 12-6 overall this season. He's gotten roughed up his last couple of starts and when that happens to this type of pitcher, redemption is the only thing on their mind. Padilla is fully capable of going out and throwing a complete gem tonight. Aside from that, he's going to get a new spark from that explosive offense. Hamilton, Bradley and the rest of the crew will come to life tonight and to be quite honest we're not 100% sure that Detroit can keep up.
Armando Galarraga is the starter for the Tigers. He is a respectable 11-4 overall with an ERA slightly over 3.10. He's 2-0 his last three games and has pitched very well. Most of America is familiar with this Detroit team so there is probably no reason to sit here and point them out. They are very streaky and difficult to wager on. They have owned this Texas team all season, but we look for them to hit a dead end tonight.
The Rangers take care of business at home here tonight in a shootout. A 1* / 10 unit wager on Padilla and Texas will close out a good night tonight, Tuesday.
TRENDS OF THE GAME:
-The Rangers are 8-3 in their last 11 Tuesday games
-The Rangers are 10-3 in Padilla's last 13 home starts
-The Rangers are 20-7 in Padilla's last 27 starts
Texas 13, Detroit 6
Larry Ness
LOS (-145) vs COL
Don't expect any second-half 'magic' from the Rockies this year. The Rockies enter this game 57-69 overall, eight games back of both the D'backs and Dodgers, who are tied at 64-60 for the NL West lead. The Rockies have not played well vs division opponents in '08, going 17-28 overall, including a 5-7 mark vs the Dodgers. After hitting .280 last year while averaging 5.28 RPG, the Rockies are hitting just .268 this season, while averaging 4.69 RPG. Colorado 'killed' right-handed pitching last year, going 70-49 (averaged 5.4 RPG) but is only 35-54 vs righties this year, averaging 4.2 runs. Colorado has been just awful on the road in '08, with a 23-40 mark, scoring just 3.94 RPG while allowing 5.13. Against righties on the road, the Rockies are 16-32, averaging 3.8 RPG. They'll face righty Hiroki Kuroda (7-8, 3.88 ERA) tonight and while he's 0-2 with a 7.50 ERA in two starts vs Colorado this year, Kuroda has pitched extremely well in August, allowing 14 hits and just three ERs over 22.1 innings of his three starts, for a 1.21 ERA (he's 2-0 and the team, 2-1). Let's also remember that the Dodgers are an impressive 13-4 at home since the break and look like a new team with Casey Blake and Manny on board. Ubaldo Jimenez (8-11, 3.94 ERA) starts for Colorado and it's been a 'rollercoaster' season for the young righty. He went just 1-7 over his first 15 starts (team was 3-12) but then from June 21 through August 1, was 7-2 with a 1.94 ERA. However, in his last two starts, he's allowed 19 hits, eight walks and 10 ERs in just 11 innings, for an 8.18 ERA. I'm sticking with the Dodgers.
NSA
20* White Sox -115
10* Tampa Bay -120
10* OVER 9
10* UNDER 9.5
10* UNDER 8.5
10* Florida -145
Rocketman Sports
Florida Marlins vs. San Francisco Giants
Play: Florida Marlins
Florida is 37-24 this year after a loss. This Giants team doesn't score many runs only averaging 3.8 runs per game overall, 3.8 runs per game at home and 3.8 runs per game against right handed starters this season. Nolasco is 11-7 overall this year and 6-3 on the road this season. Correia is only 2-6 with a 5.12 ERA overall this year. Correia is 0-1 with a 12.97 ERA overall vs Florida since 1997. Giants are 3-10 in Correias last 13 starts. We'll recommend a small play on Florida.
Jorge Gonzalez
Oakland Athletics vs. Minnesota Twins
Play: Minnesota Twins
Jeff Alexander Sports
1 Unit on Cleveland Indians -170
A couple big systems are in our favor here. Plays on all favorites with a money line of -150 or more (CLEVELAND) - with a team batting average of .265 or worse on the season (AL), after allowing 4 runs or less 3 straight games are 194-68 since 1997. Plays against all underdogs with a money line of +150 or more (KANSAS CITY) - good fielding team - averaging <=0.6 errors/game on the season, after a combined score of 17 runs or more are 125-39 the last 5 seasons. The Indians have won 7 of 10 while the Royals have dropped 9 of 11. We'll take the Tribe in this one.
Steve Janus
New York Yankees vs. Toronto Blue Jays
Play: Toronto Blue Jays
Tuesday we look at an AL East match up that won't have any playoff implications, but one that should provide us with a solid winner against the sliding Yankees.
New York isn't yet statistically out of the playoff race, but it would take more than one miracle for them to earn a post-season spot. Not to mention, they just aren't playing very good baseball. The Yankees have now lost 4 of their last 5 against teams with a winning record. Injuries and/or poor performance from their starting pitching would be the first place I would point to blame for the Yankees' struggles. One case of this would be tonight's starter, Darrell Rasner, who the Yankees have not played well behind. New York is just 4-9 in Rasner's last 13 starts including a 1-6 record when he starts on the road and a 1-5 record if he is starting against a team with a winning record. It's not that Ranser is a bad pitcher. I think he will eventually mature into a pretty good starter someday, but he's very inconsistent and, as the numbers indicate, doesn't exactly inspire production from the Yankee offense.
The other half of this game, the Toronto Blue Jays, don't really have much to play for either, they are 2 games behind the Yankees in the standings, but they are at least playing well coming into tonight's game. Toronto has won 5 of their last 6 overall and 4 of 5 against right-handed starters. What I really like about the Blue Jays tonight, however, is their starting pitching. AJ Burnett isn't exactly having a Cy Young season, but he's managed 15 wins for an average team, and he's stayed pretty healthy this year, something that has plagued him in the past. Burnett has been as solid as any pitcher around when he pitches on his home turf, in fact, the Blue Jays are 7-0 in his last 7 starts in Toronto. What's not to like about that?
The bottom line here is that neither team has a lot of motivation right now, other than trying to finish a little closer to the top of the standings. When we strip away that motivation factor I think you have to then look at starting pitching to be the most important aspect of this game, in which case I will take AJ Burnett over Darrell Rasner 10 times out of 10, at least at these two stages of their careers.
BEN BURNS
Kansas City Royals @ Cleveland Indians
PICK: Cleveland Indians
These teams have similar records. The Indians are playing much better baseball right now though and are arguably the much better overall team. Sunday's 4-3 win brought them to 7-3 their last 10 games. The Royals lost their last game, also on Sunday, by a score of 15-6, dropping them to 2-9 their last 11. Note that the Royals are just 15-31 the past few seasons after allowing double-digits in runs in their previous game. The Royals send Luke Hochevar to the mound and that's been a losing proposition, particularly on the road. In 10 road starts, Hochevar has gone 2-6 with an ugly 6.17 ERA and 1.526 WHIP. Overall, Hochever is 0-4 with a 6.59 ERA in five starts since the All-Star break.
Reyes goes for the Indians and he's been very sharp since joining the team. He's gone six or more innings in each of his two AL starts and has allowed just three combined runs. Despite underachieving this year, the Indians are still a profitable 35-18 (+6.3) as home favorites in the -150 to -175 range the past three seasons. They should be able to start the series off with a victory. Consider Cleveland
LT Profits
Los Angeles Angels @ Tampa Bay Rays Under 8.0
Ervin Santana of the Los Angeles Angels has been great on the road this year while James Shields of the Tampa Bay Rays has been almost unhittable at home, so do not expect much scoring here tonight.
Santana had been much better at home than on the road throughout his career, but he has overcome that road hump this season. He is 9-2 away from home this year with a nice 3.45 ERA, and the Under is 8-4 in his road starts. The last time he pitched outside of Anaheim, he tossed eight scoreless innings while allowing just five hits in a 1-0 win over the New York Yankees.
Meanwhile, Shields is 7-1 at home with an excellent 2.21 ERA and a microscopic 0.93 WHIP in 93.1 home innings. He has faced the Angels at home four times in the last two years, and he allowed a grand total of four runs in 28.1 innings, including a Complete Game one-hit shutout earlier this season.
As if that is not enough, the Tampa Bay bullpen now ranks third in the major leagues with a 3.18 ERA while the Angels have climbed up to number 12 after a terrible start with a 3.90 pen ERA. Finally, these are two of the most Under-friendly teams in baseball, with the Under going 71-51-2 in all Rays games and 66-50-7 in all Halos contests.
Pick: Angels, Rays Under 8
Oakland Athletics +180
The Oakland Athletics upset the Minnesota Twins here last night, and we look for the Athletics to repeat that feat at a much better price here tonight.
Now, Sean Gallagher may not have pretty statistics since coming to Oakland, but the bottom line is that he has allowed three earned runs or less in five of his six starts as a member of the Athletics. A repeat performance would do just fine here, considering that the Oakland bullpen ranks fifth in the majors with a 3.47 ERA.
Granted, Kevin Slowey is generally underrated and he has allowed one run or less in three of his last four starts, but we are just not convinced that he deserves to be a -200 favorite over anyone just yet at this point of his career. In fact, the biggest favorite that he has been in any game this season was -164 vs. the Cleveland Indians, and he lost that contest by a 5-1 count.
We will go for the value play here with Oakland at this price.
Pick: Athletics +180
Matt Foust
Florida Marlins @ San Francisco Giants Over 8.0
The Florida Marlins traveled west Sunday evening to begin a three game set with the Giants in San Francisco tonight. The Marlins are trying to stay in the division race, but they have slipped a bit of late, winning just three of their last ten games. They now sit four games back of the Mets and two and half games back from Philly.
The Marlins do not have to look far to find the reason for their recent lackluster play; the Fish have averaged a miserable 3.3 runs per game over their last 10. This fact is probably not sitting well with a squad that is used to pounding out runs seemingly at will. Luckily for the Marlins they are headed to a place that has been good to their bats in the past as they are anxious to see some crooked numbers on the scoreboard.
Florida will be facing right-hander Kevin Correia in their battle to get the offense going again. Corriea has pitched fairly well as a starter this season after working mostly as a reliever the past couple of years. He started out pretty rough, but has turned in some decent performances in the summer months. However, he still sports a 5.12 ERA, a 1.56 WHIP, and a not so stellar strikeout to walk ratio. At home, he has been anything but a stopper, posting a 4.58 ERA and a .293 opponent batting average. The OVER is 4-1-1 in Correia’s last six home starts and it is 5-2 in his last seven starts at any location. He will have his hands full keeping the run total down against a hungry Marlins team that still has something to play for this season (5.1 runs per game on the road in 2008).
The Marlins will counter Correia with Ricky Nolasco (RHP). Nolasco was on a torrid pace through most of July, but he has slowed some recently. He is still pitching well, but he has allowed an average of three earned runs per game over his last five starts (31.6 innings pitched). In his five prior starts he allowed an average of only two earned runs per game in 36 innings pitched. Despite his solid performances, the total has still gone OVER in eight of the last 10 games that Nolasco has pitched away from home.
However, here is where the real stuff hits the fan: Seven of the last 10 games between these two in San Francisco have gone OVER the total. The average game score in those 10 contests was 12.50. The OVER is 8-3 when the Marlins play an NL West team this season, the OVER is 5-2 when the Marlins faced a right-handed NL West pitcher this season, and the OVER is 8-4 when the Giants have played an NL East team at home this season. Also consider the following: the OVER is 3-0 between these two teams this season, the OVER is 35-19 when the Marlins play on the road, and the OVER is 33-25 when the Giants play at home.Take OVER 8
John Ryan
LAA Angels vs. Tampa Bay Rays
Play: Tampa Bay Rays
Ai Simulator 3* graded play on Tampa Bay – Can anyone truly believe that TB is leading the AL East in mid-August? What is more amazing is the fact that if they win tonight they overtake Anaheim for the BEST record in baseball. All of this accomplished with numerous injuries to starters and key personnel. Hank Steinbrenner was crying that his team could not have done any better given their MASH list. Well, Hank you better take a look at how TEAM plays and how every member of that TEAM does their job. These teams are actually nearly the same, but the one most dominating difference is the TB bullpen. Over the past 7 games they have posted a 1.66 ERA and a 1.384 WHIP. Their entire pitching staff has done very well of late too allowing opponents a 243 BA in all games, 222 in home games, and 205 over the past 7 games. They allowed opponents to score 4.0 RPG on the season, 3.5 RPG in home games, and 3.0 RPG over the past 7 games. Supporting this graded play is a system that has gone 131-82 making 39.7 units since 2002. Play on home teams starting a pitcher who walked 5 or more hitters last outing and is now facing an opponent starting a well rested pitcher who is working on 5 or 6 days rest. TB starter Shields is 7-1 with a 2.21 ERA and 0.929 WHIP in home starts this season; 13-1 (+12.3 Units) against the money line in home games when playing against a team with a winning record over the last 2 seasons; 11-1 (+10.2 Units) against the money line in home games versus teams who strand 6.9 or less runners on base per game over the last 3 seasons. Take TB