Vernon Croy
Florida Marlins vs. Atlanta Braves
Play: Atlanta Braves
The Braves have the superior pitcher on the mound tonight and the Braves are 8-4 this season when Jair Jurrjens (11-9, 3.28) has started at home. The Marlins are 0-6 over Scott Olsen's (6-8, 4.11 ERA) last 6 starts and they are just 4-7 when he has started on the road this season. Olsen has struggled against the Braves in the past with a 2-4 record and an ERA of 6.50 over 9 career starts and he has also struggled over his last 3 starts with an ERA of 6.00 allowing 28 hits over just 18 innings. Atlanta is 8-2 over their last 10 games as a home favorite of -150 to -175 and they are 16-9 in their last 25 home games against the Marlins. The Marlins are just 8-21 in their last 29 games after a win and they are hitting just .229 as a team over their last 7 games while averaging 3.9 rpg. Take the Atlanta Braves as my MLB Free Play for Tuesday night and make sure you get on my MLB Total Smash as I have it winning hands down tonight.
Doc's Sports
New York Mets vs. Philadelphia Phillies
Play: Over
A critical series opens up @ Citizens Bank Park when the top two teams in the NL East are set to do battle. This game features a pair of veterans and neither one has the stuff to keep these powerful line-ups in check. Pedro is 4-3 on the season but has an E.R.A. of 4.97 and will be lucky to make it through five innings of work. His numbers should be much better since he plays in a pitcher friendly ballpark in Shea Stadium. He has just one victory on the season since July 8th and is coming off a four run performance against Atlanta on August 21st. His opponent is even older in LHP Jamie Moyer, who has pitched well of late but there is a catch to that. His last three starts have come against Pittsburgh, San Diego, and Washington, three of the worst teams in the league. The Mets have seen him a lot recently and expect them to sit back and knock him around early and often.
Jimmy The Moose
Toronto Blue Jays at Tampa Bay Rays
Prediction: Tampa Bay Rays
The Jays have been playing better and are trying to claw their way back into the wild card race but they just can't seem to make up any ground. The Jays send their ace Roy Halladay to the mound t9o face a Tampa team that both the Jays and he have struggled against. The Jays have lost his last 3 starts vs. the Rays and two of them have come in Tampa. The Rays counter with Shields tonight and they have won 5 of his last 6 starts vs. the Jays. Tampa has won his last 5 home starts vs. Toronto. The Jays are 1-7 in their last 8 trips to Tampa and Toronto has lost 10 of the last 13 meetings overall. Play on the Tampa Bay Rays -.
Scott Ferrall
BASEBALL FREE B's FOR TUESDAY
Pettitte -155 over the Red Sox at Yankee Stadium
Cliff Lee -160 and the Tribe at Detroit--the guy just wins !
White Sox -155 and Gavin Floyd at Baltimore over Burress
Colorado -115 over San Francisco--De La Rosa over Palmer in the BAY
Arizona -240 at San Diego--Brandon Webb wins his 19th
Milwaukee -115 at St.Louis--Ben Sheets over Wellemeyer at Busch 2
Sports Gambling Hotline
Florida +135 at ATLANTA
We are definitely interested in backing the underdog Marlins tonight, as Atlanta isn't exactly closing their '08 campaign with a bang.
The Braves have lost 7 of their last 8 games, and starter Jair Jurrjens has dropped his lastr pair of starts, as the righty has worked just 12 innings, while allowing 6 runs to score.
True, Florida starter Scott Olsen has sputtered down the stretch, but he does own a 1-0 mark against the Braves in two starts this year, allowing just 3 runs in 13 innings of work.
Jurrjens has split a pair of starts against the Marlins this season, with 7 runs scored in 12 frames of work.
Florida needs to get on a serious run down the stretch, and we like them to build off of Sunday's win over the first-place Diamondbacks.
Play on the Marlins.
2♦ FLORIDA
Chris Jordan
Cleveland at DETROIT +145
It’s a pitching debut, and we all know what that means: no scouting report for Chris Lambert and the Indians could pay the price. I know we’re taking a shot by going against Cliff Lee and his 18-2 mark, but has anyone noticed how high the baseball lines have gotten lately?
Not today, as the American League All-Star-starter is laying a rather low buck and a half (or so) to the young rookie, who is in from Triple-A Toledo to fill Nate Robertson’s vacated spot in the rotation. He made 26 starts for the Mud Hens and ranked fifth in the International League with his 3.50 ERA.
He has a 12-8 record and produced three complete games while wearing a Toledo uniform. There’s nothing to say he can’t succeed in this one, as the run support might come easier than you would think. Lee is 4-6 with a 5.46 ERA in 16 lifetime starts against the Tigers, so look for an outburst to support the rook here.
2♦ TIGERS
Karl Garrett
Boston at NY YANKEES
Start of a big three game set in the Bronx tonight, and the G-Man is counting on the bats to be in control in this one.
Boston enters Yankee Stadium having played OVER the total in their last 4 games, and are on a 6-0-1 OVER clip their last 7 games.
New York had the lumber out at Camden Yards this past weekend, as 2 of their 3 games with Baltimore landed HIGH, and 3 of New York's last 4 overall have eclipsed the total.
These teams have met 6 times in New York, with 4 of the 6 playing OVER the posted total, and this one will as well.
Tim Wakefield will get the start for the Sox, and the Yankees have been able to hit his knuckler fairly consistently, as the Yanks have plated 9 runs off of him in 11 innings of work this year, and 25 runs off of him in 25 innings of work dating back to last year.
Andy Pettite has also taken his lumps against Boston, as the southpaw has surrendered 3 runs or more in 4 of his last 5 efforts against the Red Sox.
Have to like a high-scoring game in this one.
2♦ OVER
Bobby Maxwell
Boston +140 at N.Y. YANKEES
Tonight we've got another plus-money winner as we go with the Red Sox to beat the Yankees in this series opener.
Boston makes its final visit to Yankee Stadium and can almost eliminate the Yankees from postseason contention. New York is five games behind the Red Sox in the race for the wild card spot and if Boston can dominate this one, it is almost certain the Yankees are done for the season.
We'll play the Red Sox in this one as New York has Andy Pettitte (13-9. 4.17 ERA) on the hill. The lefty has been roughed up in his last five strts agaisnt Boston, sporting a 6.23 ERA. Prior to Wednesday's win at Toronto he had gone 0-2 in four outings with a 7.40 ERA.
Boston has Tim Wakefield (7-8, 3.67) on the mound making his secod start of the season in Yankee Stadium. He gave up three runs in 6.1 innings on July 6 in a 5-4 loss to the Yankees. He hasn't pitched since August 6 when he went on the DL with tightness in his shoulder. Prior to the DL he was 1-0 with a 0.73 ERA in two outings.
The two teams have split 12 games this season so far but the Red Sox come in 4-2 on their current road trip. Both teams know it's a big series but we think Boston is in a better place to succeed. Play the Red Sox.
3♦ BOSTON
SPORTS ADVISORS
N.Y. Mets (73-59) at Philadelphia (72-59)
Fresh off a four-game home sweep of the Dodgers, the Phillies now open a critical two-game set against the first-place Mets at Citizens Bank Park, with Jamie Moyer (11-7, 3.54 ERA) set to oppose New York’s Pedro Martinez (4-3, 4.97).
Philadelphia completed the sweep of Los Angeles with a 5-0 victory Monday night, outscoring the Dodgers 27-5 in the four games. The Phillies, who trail the Mets by a half-game in the N.L. East race, are on streaks of 8-2 overall, 8-1 at home, 8-3 in divisional play and 24-11 on Tuesdays.
New York pounded the Astros 9-1 on Monday to halt a two-game slide and split the four-game series with Houston. The Mets are on impressive runs of 11-3 overall, 6-1 on the road, 16-5 against the N.L. West and 4-0 on Tuesdays. Also, New York is 9-4 against the Phillies this year, including 5-1 in the last six overall and 5-2 in games played at Citizens Bank Park.
Martinez had a streak of three straight quality starts snapped in Thursday’s outing against the Braves, as he gave four runs on seven hits in seven innings, but New York’s offense bailed him out in winning 5-4 at home. Martinez, who has pitched at least six innings in each of his last four trips to the bump, is 3-1 on the road despite an ugly 6.15 ERA.
Martinez has faced the Phillies once this year, back on July 7, when he allowed two runs on five hits in 5 1/3 innings, getting a no-decision in a 10-9 Mets victory. Prior to that contest, New York had lost four straight games against Philadelphia with Martinez on the hill. For his career, the veteran right-hander is 8-5 with a 3.27 ERA in 23 games (19 starts) against the Phillies.
Moyer got a no-decision in Thursday’s home start against Washington, giving up just two runs (one earned) on five hits in 6 2/3 innings, with his team losing, 4-3. The 45-year-old southpaw has now given up three earned runs or less in 14 consecutive starts, lowering his ERA from 4.65 to 3.54, but Philadelphia is just 7-7 during this stretch.
At home this year, Moyer is 4-4 with a 4.32 ERA in 13 starts. He’s also 6-4 with a 2.66 ERA in 15 lifetime starts against the Mets, including 1-1 with a 2.81 ERA in four efforts this season. three of which the Phillies have lost.
For the Mets, the over is on streaks of 5-1-1 overall (3-0 last three), 5-2-1 with Martinez on the mound, 19-7-1 when Martinez works on the road (7-1 this year) and 7-2 when Martinez faces Philadelphia. Conversely, the under is 6-1-1 in the Phillies’ last eight games overall, 10-1-1 in their last 12 at home, 4-0-1 in their last five versus the N.L. East, 11-3 in Moyer’s past 14 outings and 3-1 when Moyer has faced New York this year.
ATS ADVANTAGE:NONE
Milwaukee (76-55) at St. Louis (73-59)
The two teams chasing the Cubs in the N.L. Central kick off a brief two-game series at Busch Stadium, with the Brewers’ Ben Sheets (11-7, 3.75) set to face off against Todd Wellemeyer.
Both squads were off Monday, and both have been playing solid baseball of late, with Milwaukee winning four straight and 14 of its last 18, while the Cardinals have taken seven of their last 10. However, the Brewers, who are 16-6 in August, have won six straight games against St. Louis and eight of last nine, including a four-game sweep at Busch Stadium a month ago.
Milwaukee, which leads the Redbirds by 3½ games in the wild-card race, sports additional hot streaks of 14-5 on the road, 35-17 on Tuesdays and 13-5 when Sheets works on the road.
Sheets has struggled of late, losing four of his last five starts while posting a 4.36 ERA. He’s also 5-14 with a 4.20 ERA in 25 career starts against the Cardinals, getting no-decisions with a 3.21 ERA in two outings versus the Redbirds this season. On the bright side, Sheets is 6-3 with a 2.91 ERA in 15 road starts, 10 of which the Brewers have won.
Wellemeyer is 3-0 with a 2.66 ERA in his last three outings, he’s undefeated in his last eight and he’s given up two earned runs or fewer in five of his last six starts. However, all four of the right-hander’s losses have come at home, where he is 7-4 with a 4.58 ERA. Finally, in two career starts against Milwaukee (both this year), Wellemeyer has allowed just four runs (two earned) in 11 innings, but St. Louis lost both games (one home, one road) by identical 4-3 scores.
The under is 4-0 in Sheets’ last four starts and 10-3-1 in his last 14 against the Cardinals (6-1 in the last seven at Busch Stadium. The under is also on streaks of 4-0 in this rivalry, 5-0 when these teams meet in St. Louis, 13-6-3 for the Brewers overall, 12-3-1 for the Brewers on the road and 10-4-1 when Wellemeyer faces the N.L. Central.
ATS ADVANTAGE:MILWAUKEE and UNDER
AMERICAN LEAGUE
Boston (75-55) at N.Y. Yankees (70-60)
The Red Sox head to Yankee Stadium for the final time, with veteran knuckleballer Tim Wakefield (7-8, 3.67) set to return from the disabled list and oppose New York’s Andy Pettitte (13-9, 4.17).
The Yankees took Monday off after sweeping a three-game weekend series at Baltimore, putting up 22 runs in the process. New York is 6-2 in its last eight games overall, 4-1 in its last five at home and 62-29 in Pettitte’s last 96 starts at the Stadium.
Boston, which also was idle Monday, is 4-2 on its current road trip, alternating wins and losses in its last five contests. The Red Sox are still just 32-37 on the road in 2008, compared with 43-18 at Fenway Park.
These rivals have split their 12 meetings this season, but New York has won four of the last five. Also, the Yankees have won seven of the last 10 clashes inside their yard.
Wakefield has been sidelined since Aug. 6, when he held the Royals to two runs (one earned) on four hits in six innings of an 8-2 road victory. The right-hander has allowed three earned runs or fewer in 18 of his 23 starts this season, giving up two runs or fewer in nine of the last 13. However, despite the win in Kansas City, he’s only 2-5 in 13 road outings despite a 3.95 ERA, and Boston has dropped seven of his last nine on the highway.
Pettitte is coming off Wednesday’s strong 5-1 win at Toronto, as he allowed just one run on five hits and no walks in seven innings. The veteran southpaw has pitched exactly seven innings in each of his last three starts (3.00 ERA), but New York is 1-4 in his last five efforts and 6-7 in his 13 homes starts in 2008, with Pettitte posting a 4.72 ERA in the Bronx.
Wakefield has struggled against the Yankees in his career, going 9-17 with a 5.14 ERA in 47 regular-season appearances (30 starts). In fact, the Red Sox are 0-6 the last six times Wakefield has faced New York, including 0-3 in the Bronx. Conversely, the Yankees are 5-1 in Pettitte’s last six starts against Boston, and he’s 16-7 with a 3.54 ERA in his career versus the BoSox.
The over is on streaks of 7-3 for the Yankees at home, 8-3 for the Yankees against the A.L. East, 15-7 for the Yankees on grass, 5-0-2 for the Red Sox overall (all against divisional foes) and 4-0 for the Red Sox on the road. The over is also 7-2 in Pettitte’s last nine starts against the Red Sox, but the under is 11-5-3 in Wakefield’s last 19 against New York (including 6-0-3 in the last nine at Yankee Stadium).
ATS ADVANTAGE:N.Y. YANKEES and OVER
Scott Delaney
Arizona @ San Diego
I know, it’s ludicrous, but this is the way it is. We’re taking a shot with this young right-hander in this pitching rematch at pitcher-friendly PETCO Park. In the right-hander’s second career MLB start, guess what, he pitched well enough to win. Problem was, he was in Brandon Webb’s house. And you just don’t stroll into Chase Field and challenge the Cy Young frontrunner to a duel like he did, and come away without getting snake bitten … like he did. Nevertheless, though northpaw tossed his first quality start and simply made a few minor mistakes over the dish.
Webb is gunning for his 20th win of the season, but something tells me he may – like many slithering snakes – be counting the chickens in the coop before they’ve hatched. And if he overlooks this team, the Padres just may shock him when he leaves a couple of heaters hanging, or any change-ups where they don’t belong. As I’ve said before, this is a comp selection and doesn’t rate near as big as the premium selections, so we’ll take a shot with a huge dog and hope for the best.
1 DIME PADRES
JEFFERSONSPORTS
28-18 last 46 plays (61%)
MLB +30.44 units (+3044.00$ playing 100.00 a game)
MLB EARLY RELEASE FOR TUES
MINNESOTA-170
;D
Jim Feist
TOR Blue Jays and TB Rays
Take Under
A couple of aces on the hill! In fact, these teams are No. 1 and No. 2 in the AL in pitching. Toronto's offense is better at home, and they are 34-27 under the total on the road. The Blue Jays go with ace Roy Halladay (15-9, 2.68 ERA) who is on a roll, with a 1.99 ERA his last three starts. The team is 3-1-1 under the total his last 5 starts. Halladay has been a demon on the road this season with a 2.53 ERA. Tampa Bay is a focused team, on pace for a 96-66 record - a mark that should be good enough to garner Tampa Bay either the division title or the wild card. They are second best defensively in the AL, which helps the pitching staff. In fact, Toronto is tops in fewest errors allowed. Rays starter James Shields is having another great season. At home he has a 2.21 ERA and an 8-1 record. Tampa Bay is 37-28 under the total at home. Don't look for many reasons with these pitchers and defenses! Play the Blue Jays/Rays under the total.
Dave Cokin
CLE Indians and DET Tigers
Take CLE Indians
Cy Young is on the mound for the Indians tonight. Actually, it's Cliff Lee but the inference is clear. Lee is the best pitcher in the game this year and is not slowing down. And just in case you missed it, his Indians teammates have suddenly caught fire and are playing great ball. The Tigers sure aren't, and debuting righty Chris Lambert is a fringe prospect who could be overmatched tonight. I'll be on Lee and the Indians to get it done yet again.
Marc Lawrence
Game: Texas Rangers at Kansas City Royals
Play On: Kansas City
The Royals send Zach Greinke to the hill against Kevin Millwood Tuesday evening knowing Greinke's 3.39 ERA at home this season is more than 2 runs better than Millwood's 5.46 road ERA. With Greinke in strong KW form with 7 walks and 32 strikeouts in his last five starts, we'll stay at home with the Royals here tonight.
Big Al McMordie
Milwaukee Brewers vs. St Louis Cardinals
Play: Milwaukee Brewers
At 8:15pm our complimentary selection is on the Milwaukee Brewers over the St. Louis Cardinals. The Brewers must be looking forward to this two-game series against the Cards for several reasons. First, there are few teams in the Majors who have dominated a division rival as badly as Milwaukee has dominated St. Louis recently. In the last eleven games between these two (all played in 2008), Milwaukee is 9-2 against the Cards. Secondly, Milwaukee is red hot on the road, having gone 14-5 in its last nineteen games away from Miller Park. And third, Milwaukee gets to start things off with one of their aces, 30 year-old righthanded starter Ben Sheets. Although Sheets has had a run of bad luck lately in some of his outings, he is still one of the premier starters in the league and usually finds a way to get it together for big starts such as this one. The Cards will start another 30-year-old righthander in Todd Wellemeyer. Sheets and Wellemeyer just faced one another back on July 24 (also in St. Louis) and the Brewers prevailed in that game by a score of 4-3. The Cardinals continue to battle injury with nine players either on the disabled list or otherwise on the bench with some sort of ailment. Meanwhile, the Brewers continue to be almost completely healthy. The Cards actually have a slightly better road record (37-29) than they do at home in Busch Stadium (36-30). Take the Brewers.