LT Profits
BLUE JAYS / DEVIL RAYS UNDER 7
Roy Halladay of the Toronto Blue Jays is arguably the best pitcher in baseball, while few pitchers have been as dominant at home as James Shields of the Tampa Bay Rays, so runs should be hard to come by tonight. Halladay is 15-9 with a fantastic 2.68 ERA and 1.04 WHIP in 198 innings, and he personally has more Complete Games than any other team in the league. He has maintained his form all year, as he comes into this contest off of six consecutive Quality Starts, with one of those coming vs. these Rays in a tough-luck 3-0 loss in Toronto. Now Shields is 11-7 with a 3.68 ERA, but the real story is that he is 8-1 at home with a 2.21 ERA and a microscopic 0.95 WHIP in 101.2 home innings. He has six Quality Starts in his last seven outings, and he allowed just four runs in the lone non-quality effort. He is also a perfect six for six in his career in Quality Starts vs. the Blue Jays, including three starts this season. Throw in the fact that these are the top two bullpens in the American League in ERA, and the Under seems like an easy call here.
TWINS / MARINERS UNDER 8½
Scott Baker of the Minnesota Twins has been very solid this year while Ryan Rowland-Smith of the Seattle Mariners keeps improving with each start of his young career, so look for a low scoring contest here. Rowland-Smith has made just five major league starts, and his last one was arguably his best start yet. He allowed just one run and four hits in seven innings vs. the Oakland Athletics, and he should be anxious to redeem himself after getting bombed by these Twins at Minnesota the first time he faced them. Baker meanwhile is 7-3 for the season with a nice 3.74 ERA and 1.17 WHIP in 127.2 innings. He has held his form well with a 3.10 ERA and 1.18 WHIP in his last three starts, and he has been outstanding in his last two road outings, allowing a total of three runs and only 11 hits in 15 innings. We look for each pitcher to maintain their current form here tonight.
Players of America
Florida Marlins vs. Atlanta Braves
The Play: Under 9.0
Star Value: 1* (10 Units)
Erin Rynning
Playmaker: Brewers/Cardinals Under 8
Matt Fargo Guaranteed Selections
Arizona Diamondbacks at San Diego Padres
Arizona Diamondbacks -1.5 -151
SportsKingz
Phillies -120
Tampa Bay -125
Houston -130
Dodgers -200
Michael Alexander
Toronto Blue Jays vs. Tampa Bay Rays
Pick: Tampa Bay Rays -119
Rating: 2 Units
TORONTO is 9-16 (-8.9 Units) against the money line after 5 or more consecutive home games this season.
SHIELDS is 13-1 (+11.7 Units) against the money line in home games this season.
SHIELDS is 16-3 (+12.2 Units) against the money line as a favorite of -110 or higher this season
Florida Marlins vs. Atlanta Braves
Pick: Florida Marlins +140
Rating: 2 Units
FLORIDA is 17-8 (+11.8 Units) against the money line with an on base percentage of .300 or worse over their last 15 games over the last 2 seasons.
ATLANTA is 3-14 (-14.8 Units) against the money line in home games with a struggling bullpen whose ERA is over 6.00 the last 15 games over the last 3 seasons.
OLSEN is 6-0 (+6.9 Units) against the money line vs. terrible speed teams - averaging 0.35 or less SB's/game this season.
Chicago White Sox vs. Baltimore Orioles
Pick: Chicago White Sox -149
Rating: 2 Units
BALTIMORE is 10-34 (-19.7 Units) against the money line as a home underdog of +125 to +175 over the last 3 seasons.
CHI WHITE SOX are 23-9 (+14.3 Units) against the money line vs. a mediocre bullpen whose WHIP is 1.450 to 1.550 this season.
BALTIMORE is 15-34 (-18.1 Units) against the money line in home games vs. an AL starting pitcher whose ERA is 4.00 or better over the last 2 seasons.
Larry Ness
New York Mets @ Philadelphia Phillies
PICK: New York Mets
The Mets and Phillies play a brief two-game set this week in Philadelphia, with the Mets owning a half-game lead in the NL East. The Mets took FIVE of six games with the Phillies in July, including a three-game sweep in Philadelphia. Can the Mets put last year's collapse (owned a seven-game lead with just 17 games remaining) behind them? A two-game sweep here would surely be a good start. Pedro Martinez gets the call for the New Yorkers and while he's only won two games in his last seven starts (team is 4-3), he's pitched very well. Martinez owns a 2.88 ERA over that stretch, which began with a win at Philadelphia where he went 5.1 innings while allowing five hits and two ERs on July 7. The ageless Jamie Moyer (11-7, 3.54 ERA) gets the nod for Philly and the lefty is hoping he can finally get some support from his teammates. Moyer's posted a splendid 2.66 ERA over his last 14 starts but is a modest 5-4 during that span (team is 7-7), as the Phillies have scored four runs or less in all but ONE of those 14 starts. He'll likely need some support to win here, as he's facing a New York team which has gone 26-14 vs lefties this year (averaging 4.9 YPG). However, that support may not be coming, as the Phillies are just 14-14 at home vs righties in '08, averaging a modest 3.9 RPG. Take the Mets.
WINNERS EDGE
LA Angels RL (- 1.5) -130 , 5 units ( RL of the month )
Florida Marlins + 135 , 2 units
TB Rays - 120 , 2 units
BEN BURNS
Minnesota Twins at Seattle Mariners
Prediction: Seattle Mariners
The line on Minnesota is too high. The Twins have now lost three in a row, including last night's 4-2 setback as -200 favorites. The Mariners, on the other hand, have now won three of their last four. Minnesota's Baker has 4.10 ERA on the road. Seattle's Smith has a 3.80 mark at home. The M's bullpen has also been significantly better at home than Minnesota's has been on the road. Consider taking the generous price with the home dog.
Lenny Del Genio
Game: Oakland Athletics at Los Angeles Angels
Prediction: Under
Reason: Play Under Oakland/LA Angels at 10:05 ET. We?re looking for a repeat of last night?s 2-1 pitching duel here. Angels are likely to come out on top, but at this price, it?s not worth the risk. What we do know is that A?s starter Greg Smith is 13-1 Under in the underdog role, including 11 for 11 on the road. He?s also gone Under in NINE straight starts. LA starter John Lackey is certainly no stranger to low scoring affairs as he is 11-2 Under with a total of 7 to 8.5. Take Under.
WILD BILL
New York Mets (+115 (5 units)
Chicago White Sox -155 (5 units)
Cleveland Indians -155 (5 units)
Boston Red Sox +140 (5 units)
Los Angeles Dodgers -190 (5 units)
Florida Marlins +140 (5 units)
Toronto Blue Jays +110 (5 units)
Houston Astros -135 (5 units)
Texas Rangers +110 (5 units)
St Louis Cardinals -110 (5 units)
Arizona D-backs -220 (5 units)
Minnesota Twins -165 (5 units)
Colorado Rockies -110 (5 units)
Phils- New York Mets Under 9 (5 units)
Tigers-Cleveland Indians Over 8 1/2 (5 units)
Cards-Brewers Under 8 (5 units)
Padres-D-backs Over 7 (5 units)
FRANK ROSENTHAL
957 FISH OVER 8.5 SB
959 REDS OVER 9 SB+
961 BREWERS+105 SB+
OVER 8 SB+
968 COOKIES+145 SB+
971 BOSOX UNDER 9.5 SB+
975 RANGERS UNDER 9.5 SB+
Black Magic Sports
1 Unit on Philadelphia Phillies -120
The Phillies are rolling right now after sweeping the Dodgers in four games. The good news is that Jimmy Rollins went 3-3 against the Dodgers last night to bust out of his slump. Rollins’ speed will play a huge factor deciding this series with the Mets, and I’ll back Jamie Moyer and the Phillies in Game 1 tonight. Moyer is 1-0 with a brilliant 1.83 ERA through his last three starts. Moyer owns a lifetime 2.74 ERA against the Mets as well. Moyer is 20-8 against division opponents over the last 2 seasons. The Phillies are 14-4 after allowing 2 runs or less 2 straight games over the last 2 seasons. Phillies’ starting pitching is really coming around in the second half of the season, and look for Moyer to throw another solid outing tonight to give Philly a great shot at the win. Cash in with the Phillies as the favorite.
John Ryan
Colorado Rockies vs. San Francisco Giants
Pick: San Francisco Giants
Ai Simulator 5* graded play on San Francisco – Colorado has a rough role here and has been a tough one now for the past 10 seasons. They are just 119-210 (-57.6 Units) against the money line in road games versus an average bullpen whose ERA is 3.75 to 4.50 since 1997. SF is an excellent role that has been a money maker for more than 10 seasons as they are 422-282 (+77.4 Units) against the money line versus NL teams allowing 4.8 or more runs/game on the season since 1997. Rockies starter De La Rosa is just 5-21 losing 13.6 units since 1997 when facing divisional opponents. SF is a solid 10-3 making 9.6 units with a struggling bullpen whose ERA is over 6.00 the last 15 games. Take SF
Minnesota Twins vs. Seattle Mariners
Pick: Seattle Mariners
Ai Simulator 5* graded play on Seattle – Ryan Rowland-Smith is coming off an impressive start going 7 innings allowing just 4 hits and 1 ER against Oakland. This will certainly carry over to this start as well. This will be his third start of the season and he has pitched at the MLB level in years past. Seattle is working him to become a much needed starter for next season and that certainly took a big step forward in his last start. Look for more of the same tonight and a Seattle win based on the AiS summary data. Many times Minnesota will lose focus when playing weaker teams. Note that they are just 6-15 (-12.7 Units) against the money line when playing against a terrible team with a win percentage of = 6.50 over his last 10 starts. Take Baltimore
Cincinnati Reds vs. Houston Astros (MLB)
Pick: Cincinnati Reds
Ai Simulator 5* graded play on the Reds – Supporting this graded play is a system that has gone 51-26 making 37.4 units since 2002. Play on road dogs with a money line of +100 to +150 that is a cold hitting team batting .225 or worse over their last 5 games and with a tired bullpen throwing 9+ innings over the last 2 games. Reds in a solid role – and often times have been in the dog role featured today – noting they are 31-20 (+15.7 Units) against the money line in road games vs. poor fielding teams - (turning 0.8 or less DP's/game) in the second half of the season since 1997.
Info Plays
3* on N.Y. Yankees -155
This is the biggest series of the season for the Yankees, and they’ll take Game 1 over the Red Sox and Tim Wakefield tonight. Andy Pettitte (13-9, 4.17 ERA) looks to continue the momentum for New York when he takes the hill. The veteran lefthander has gone seven innings in each of his last three starts and allowed one run and five hits in New York's 5-1 victory at Toronto last Wednesday. Tim Wakefield is 0-8 when playing against a team with a winning record in the second half of the season the last two seasons. The Yankees have seen the knuckleball pitcher twice already this season, beating him 10-3 and 5-4 in the two meetings. Wakefield gave up 6 earned runs in his last start against New York. Bet the Yankees at home.