Jimmy The Moose
New York Mets at Milwaukee Brewers
Prediction: New York Mets
The Mets have won 4 of their last 5 games and are a money making 35-17 in their last 52 games. New York has won 4 of their last 5 road games and 4 of their last 5 vs. a team with a winning record. In their last 17 games vs. a left-handed starter the Mets are 12-5. The Brewers are 4-9 in their last 13 games vs. a team with a winning record. In their last 8 home games vs. a team with a winning record the Brewers are 2-6. Milwaukee has lost 5 of Parra's last 7 starts. The Mets are 10-4 in their last 14 trips to Milwaukee. Play on the New York Mets +.
Scott Ferrall
BASEBALL FREE B's FOR TUESDAY
FAVORITES IN BOLD
Boston -300 over Baltimore--Lester isn't losing to Liz--LAY IT TO GET IT IF YOU GOT IT
Angels -145 at Detroit--Saunders on the road at Comerica--the Tigers blow
ChiSox and Danks -125 at Cleveland over Carmona
Kershaw and LA -200 over SD and Baek--The Dodgers have to really start winning or else !
CARDS +115 at Arizona--Wainwright over Petit in the desert
Colorado +170 over SF--Lincecum is stunned by the Rockies at Coors and Livan Hernandez finally looks decent
Bobby Maxwell
N.Y. Yankees +120 at TAMPA BAY
The Yankees are desparate. They are in must-win mode and they get the opportunity to face the Rays and make up some serious ground right now. So many veterans on the field tonight for New York that we have to give them a shot to win this one behind Mike Mussina (16-7, 3.41 ERA) who has looked as good as any pitcher this season.
New York trails the Rays by 12 games and trails Boston in the wildcard race by 6 1/2 games. The Yankees have won four straight on the road and the offense has scored 35 runs in those four games. They are also 18-6 in Mussina's last 24 starts overall, including each of his last six and eight of his last nine on the road.
Thursday, Mussina gave up two runs on five hits but got a no-decision in a 3-2 win over Boston. He is 18-7 with a 3.38 ERA in 31 career starts against the Rays and 2-0 with a 1.46 ERA against Tampa this season.
New York has won seven of the last 10 meetings with the Rays and they are 8-2 in Mussina's last 10 starts against them. It's a team with a lot of veterans that is in must-win mode. Play the Yankees tonight.
4♦ N.Y. YANKEES
Sports Advisors
NATIONAL LEAGUE
N.Y. Mets (77-61) at Milwaukee (80-57)
Highly touted Mets prospect Jonathon Niese is set to make his major-league debut at Miller Park against the Brewers, who will counter with Manny Parra (10-6, 4.00 ERA) in the middle game of this series between playoff contenders.
New York rallied from a 2-0 deficit to win 4-2 on Monday, improving to 35-17 in its last 52 games and move two games clear of Philadelphia in the N.L. East race. Additionally, the Mets are on runs of 12-5 against southpaw starters, 4-1 on the road and 4-1 on Tuesdays.
Despite Monday’s defeat, the Brewers are still on positive streaks of 20-8 overall, 9-2 at home, 4-0 after a loss, 23-8 against lefty starters overall, 42-16 against lefties at home and 35-16 on Tuesdays.
The Mets hold a slim 3-2 edge in the season series with the Brewers, but they’ve won 10 of their last 14 games at Miller Park.
Parra was sensational on Wednesday at St. Louis, giving up a run on six hits in six innings, walking none and striking out seven. However, his bullpen imploded in the eighth inning, as Milwaukee lost 5-3. The Brewers are just 3-7 in Parra’s last 10 starts, but 2-0 in the last two at home, where the southpaw is 6-2 with a 3.25 ERA in 14 efforts this year.
Parra’s lone career start against the Mets came on April 11 in New York, and he lasted just four innings, giving up three runs in a 4-2 defeat.
Niese, who started the season in Double-A, went 5-1 with a 3.65 ERA in six games at Triple-A New Orleans. While there, the 21-year-old former seventh-round pick walked 12 and struck out 31 in 37 innings.
For the Brewers, the under is on streaks of 4-1-1 at home, 10-4-2 on Tuesdays, 42-17-4 against the N.L. East and 12-5-1 at home against southpaw starters. Also, the under is 5-2-1 in New York’s last eight away from home. However, the over is 40-18-5 in the last 63 series meetings between these two, including 10-2-1 in Milwaukee, though yesterday’s game stayed under the posted price.
ATS ADVANTAGE:NONE
AMERICAN LEAGUE
N.Y. Yankees (73-64) at Tampa Bay (84-51)
The desperate Yankees head to Tampa Bay in must-win mode as they send Mike Mussina (16-7, 3.41) to the mound against the Rays’ Matt Garza in the opener of a three-game set at Tropicana Field.
Despite a 13-9 victory at Detroit in a make-up game Monday, New York still trails the first-place Rays by 12 games in the A.L. East and wild-card-leading Boston by 6½ games. Although the Yankees have lost four of their last seven overall and eight of their last 11 on artificial turf, they’ve won four straight on the road, scoring 35 runs in the four contests. They’re also 18-6 in Mussina’s last 24 starts overall (6-0 in the last six) and 8-1 in his last nine outings on the highway (3-0 last three).
Tampa Bay, which was idle on Monday, enters this series on a five-game winning streak. The Rays are on impressive streaks of 48-12 at home, 55-25 against right-handed starters, 36-17 against winning teams, 5-0 versus A.L. East rivals and 4-0 when Garza faces divisional foes.
During the Yankees’ 6-0 run with Mussina on the hill, the veteran right-hander has pitched six or seven innings in each outing. On Thursday against the Red Sox at home, Mussina yielded just two runs on five hits, but got a no-decision in his team’s walk-off, 3-2 victory in 10 innings. Mussina is 6-1 with a 3.34 ERA in 10 road starts this year and 18-7 with a 3.38 ERA in 31 career starts against the Rays, including 2-0 with a 1.46 ERA in two outings versus Tampa this season.
Garza was tremendous in Wednesday’s 1-0 home win over the Blue Jays, scattering six hits and three walks in 7 2/3 scoreless innings. That marked the fourth time in his last eight starts that Garza has pitched at least 7 2/3 scoreless innings, and he won all four. At home this year, the right-hander is 7-2 with a 2.47 ERA, including a 7-1 victory over the Yankees on May 12, when Garza gave up five hits in seven shutout frames.
New York has won seven of the last 10 meetings with the Rays, and the Yanks are 8-2 in Mussina’s past 10 starts against Tampa Bay (2-0 this year).
The under is 10-1 in the last 11 series clashes, including 5-0 in the last five meetings at the Trop. The under is also on streaks of 9-3 when Garza pitches at home, 8-2 when Garza pitches against the A.L. East and 14-6 when Mussina toils on an artificial surface.
ATS ADVANTAGE:UNDER
DUNKEL
Houston at Chicago Cubs
The charging Astros look to follow up yesterday's 3-0 win over the Cubs and build on their six-game winning streak. Houston is the underdog pick (+195) according to Dunkel, which has the Astros favored straight up by 1. Dunkel Pick: Houston (+195). Here are all of today's games.
TUESDAY, SEPTEMBER 2
Game 901-902: Atlanta at Florida
Dunkel Ratings: Atlanta (Morton) 13.521; Florida (Sanchez) 14.824
Dunkel Line: Florida by 1 1/2; 10
Vegas Line: Florida (-170); 9 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Florida (-170); Over
Game 903-904: Philadelphia at Washington
Dunkel Ratings: Philadelphia (Hamels) 15.562; Washington (Lannan) 16.571
Dunkel Line: Washington by 1; 8
Vegas Line: Philadelphia (-210); 7 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Washington (+195); Over
Game 905-906: Pittsburgh at Cincinnati
Dunkel Ratings: Pittsburgh (Snell) 15.060; Cincinnati (Harang) 14.729
Dunkel Line: Pittsburgh by 1/2; 11
Vegas Line: Cincinnati (-150); 9 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Pittsburgh (+140); Over
Game 907-908: Houston at Chicago Cubs
Dunkel Ratings: Houston (Backe) 16.083; Cubs (Zambrano) 15.213
Dunkel Line: Houston by 1; 6 1/2
Vegas Line: Chicago Cubs (-210); No Run Line
Dunkel Pick: Houston (+195); N/A
Game 909-910: NY Mets at Milwaukee
Dunkel Ratings: NY Mets (Niese) 15.385; Milwaukee (Parra) 16.991
Dunkel Line: Milwaukee by 1 1/2; 8 1/2
Vegas Line: Milwaukee (-130); 9 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Milwaukee (-130); Under
Game 911-912: San Francisco at Colorado
Dunkel Ratings: San Francisco (Lincecum) 14.821; Colorado (Hernandez) 14.346
Dunkel Line: San Francisco by 1/2; 10
Vegas Line: San Francisco (-200); 9 1/2
Dunkel Pick: San Francisco (-200); Over
Game 913-914: St. Louis at Arizona
Dunkel Ratings: St. Louis (Wainwright) 14.934; Arizona (Petit) 13.325
Dunkel Line: St. Louis by 1 1/2; 9 1/2
Vegas Line: Arizona (-130); 9
Dunkel Pick: St. Louis (+120); Over
Game 915-916: San Diego at LA Dodgers
Dunkel Ratings: San Diego (Baek) 16.030; LA Dodgers (Kershaw) 15.046
Dunkel Line: San Diego by 1; 7
Vegas Line: LA Dodgers (-200); 8
Dunkel Pick: San Diego (+185); Under
Game 917-918: Chicago White Sox at Cleveland
Dunkel Ratings: White Sox (Danks) 15.025; Cleveland (Carmona) 16.093
Dunkel Line: Cleveland by 1; 8
Vegas Line: Chicago White Sox (-130); 9 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Cleveland (+120); Under
Game 919-920: LA Angels at Detroit
Dunkel Ratings: LA Angels (Saunders) 14.485; Detroit (Lambert) 14.597
Dunkel Line: Detroit by 1/2; 11
Vegas Line: LA Angels (-150); 10
Dunkel Pick: Detroit (+140); Over
Game 921-922: Baltimore at Boston
Dunkel Ratings: Baltimore (Liz) 14.747; Boston (Lester) 16.826
Dunkel Line: Boston by 2; 12
Vegas Line: Boston (-290); 11
Dunkel Pick: Boston (-290); Over
Game 923-924: Minnesota at Toronto
Dunkel Ratings: Minnesota (Perkins) 15.937; Toronto (Purcey) 16.573
Dunkel Line: Toronto by 1/2; 9 1/2
Vegas Line: Minnesota (-120); 8 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Toronto (+110); Over
Game 925-926: NY Yankees at Tampa Bay
Dunkel Ratings: NY Yankees (Mussina) 15.667; Tampa Bay (Garza) 17.107
Dunkel Line: Tampa Bay by 1 1/2; 9
Vegas Line: Tampa Bay (-125); 8 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Tampa Bay (-125); Over
Game 927-928: Seattle at Texas
Dunkel Ratings: Seattle (Feierabend) 16.776; Texas (McCarthy) 15.706
Dunkel Line: Seattle by 1; 13
Vegas Line: Texas (-170); 12
Dunkel Pick: Seattle (+160); Over
Game 929-930: Oakland at Kansas City
Dunkel Ratings: Oakland (Gonzalez) 14.376; Kansas City (Greinke) 13.737
Dunkel Line: Oakland by 1/2; 8
Vegas Line: Kansas City (-150); 8 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Oakland (+140); Under
JEFFERSONSPORTS
MLB EARLY RELEASE
KC ROYALS-145
Dave Cokin
CHW White Sox and CLE Indians
Take CHW White Sox
The Indians snapped their brief losing streak Monday as the amazing Cliff Lee notched his 20th win in style against the White Sox. That was actually a big game for the Indians, as they're very focused when Lee takes the mound. With little to play for, the Tribe could very well flatten out tonight. The White Sox have dropped four of their last five, and with the Twins still nipping at their heels, they can't afford a slump. Danks has faded a bit down the stretch with the innings rising, but I still give him the edge against Carmona, who never has really put it together this year. I'll spot the price here with the White Sox.
Jim Feist
OAK Athletics and KC Royals
Take Under
If you're a fan of offense....don't watch this game. These are the worst two offenses in the American League. Oakland has given up on the season a long time ago, going with kids everywhere. This anemic offense is last in runs scored and has scored 6 runs or more in only one of the last 16 games. The A's are 39-27 under the total on the road and this is their 11th road game over the last 15 games. They also run into a hot pitcher. KC righty Zack Greinke has a solid 3.72 ERA for the season and just 0.51 his last three starts. Incredibly, he's winless in those three starts, as this offense is terrible. The team is 5-2 under the total his last 7 starts and 39-29 under the total at home. Outside of a 13-3 win over the Tigers, this offense has been dormant the last three weeks, on a 7-2 under the total run. Looks like another low scoring baseball contest, play the A's/Royals under the total.
Matt Fargo
Pittsburgh Pirates at Cincinnati Reds
Prediction: Cincinnati Reds
The Pirates continue their miserable run as they are now on a 10-game losing streak and have dropped 14 of their last 16 games. This recent skid has seen both the pitching and hitting take backseats. Pittsburgh has scored three runs or fewer in eight of those 10 games while allowing 10 runs or more five times. The ERA sits at 7.86 over the last 10 games which has pushed the season mark to 5.23 which is worst in the National League. The Pirates are 7-22 in their last 29 games following a loss.
It hasn't been a great season for the Reds either but they got their homestand off to a great start with a three-game sweep of San Francisco. After a horrible run of 4-17, Cincinnati has gone 7-5 over its last 12 games and catches yet another slumping team. The offense showed signs of life over the weekend as the Reds scored 27 runs in the set. After going 0-8 in an eight-game home stretch, the Reds have won their last four and they are 5-2 in their last seven games against a team with a losing record.
While Cincinnati is having a tough season, Aaron Harang is having the same type of season. It has been a rough one since the start but he has tossed two straight quality outings so a strong finish is the best way to head into 2009. He recently came off the disabled list and his first two outings right after that were not good but the bounceback seems to be in place. The Reds are 9-4 in Harang's last 13 starts when their opponent scores two runs or less in their previous game.
Ian Snell is another pitcher who was supposed to have a great season only to see it wither away early. He was coming off three straight quality outings but allowed five runs in four innings last time out against the Cubs. Snell is mostly struggling on the road with a 7.07 ERA in 13 starts while going only 2-7. The Pirates are 1-5 his last six starts against the Reds as he has allowed six runs or more in half of those. Pittsburgh is 3-9 in Snell?s last 12 road starts. Play Cincinnati Reds 1.5 Units
Craig Trapp
New York Yankees vs. Tampa Bay Rays
Play: Tampa Bay Rays
The East-leading Rays will be sitting 12 games ahead of New York on Tuesday, when they bring a five-game winning streak into the opener of a three-game set against the Yankees at Tropicana Field. But while the big-budget Yankees have struggled with injuries, inconsistency and poor pitching this year, the small-market Rays have gone from a surprising storyline to the club with best record in baseball entering the season's final month. Tampa Bay (84-51) scored 34 runs during a three-game sweep of Baltimore over the weekend, while its 3.70 team ERA this season is the second-best in the majors. With a major-league best 21-7 record in August, the Rays took control of the AL East while virtually assuring they'll advance to their first postseason. Mike Mussina (16-7, 3.41 ERA) has been the lone constant lately in their rotation, as they have won his last six starts. The right-hander still has a chance at the first 20-win season of his 18-year career, but he has not had a decision in each of his last two outings. The Rays will have a pitcher nearly 15 years younger than Mussina on the mound in Matt Garza (11-7, 3.53). The right-hander threw 7 2-3 innings in a 1-0 win over Toronto on Wednesday, giving him four scoreless outings of at least that long in his last eight starts. Garza tossed seven scoreless innings against the Yankees in a 7-1 home win on May 12. He is 7-2 with a 2.47 ERA at Tropicana Field this season. With a 52-19 record, Tampa Bay is the best home team in baseball, winning its last nine series in St. Petersburg. The Rays have played 13 series overall since the All-Star break, winning 12 and splitting one. SCORE TB 5 - NYY 2
Frank Jordan
LAA Angels vs. Detroit Tigers
Play: LAA Angels
The Angels are great on the road with a 40-25 record as they invade Detroit. Detroit has had stuggles this year with a record under .500 and just 2 games over .500 at home after the 13-9 loss at home on Monday. Look for the Angels to tame the Tigers and win in Detroit. Play LA Angels
Info Plays
3* on Pittsburgh Pirates +142
We’ll Play On - All underdogs with a money line of +100 to +150 (PITTSBURGH) - after being shut out in a loss to a division rival, a bad team (38% to 46%) playing a team with a losing record. This is a 38-15 ML System hitting 71.7% and gaining 29.1 Units since 1997. Plays on teams after getting shut out against a division rival have been extremely profitable, as you can see. This is especially the case when their playing another terrible team, such as the Cincinnati Reds. Aaron Harang has been putrid with a 6.06 ERA over his last 3 starts while allowing 6 home runs in just 16 innings. The Pirates will hit the long ball today en route to a victory against the Reds. Bet Pittsburgh on the road.
Jeff Alexander Sports
1 Unit on Cleveland Indians +115
The White Sox are just 1-4 in their last 5 overall and I have them struggling with the red hot Indians again tonight. The Indians are 11-3 in their last 14 overall, 7-0 in their last 7 vs. the American League Central, and 13-3 in their last 16 games following a win. The Indians are also a dominant 19-8 in Carmona's last 27 home starts and 19-7 in Carmona's last 26 starts vs. the American League Central. Take the Tribe at home tonight.
Black Widow Sports
1* on Minnesota Twins -106
The Twins are 14-4 (+11.1 Units) against the money line when playing against a marginal winning team (Win Pct. 51% to 54%) this season. They fare very well against the teams that waver around .500 and Toronto fits into that category Tuesday. Minnesota is 30-16 (+9.3 Units) against the money line when the money line is -100 to -150 this season. The Twins are 11-2 (+10.5 Units) against the money line when playing with a day off this season. Minnesota uses their days off wisely to get much-needed rest. They then come back and are 100% focused on playing baseball, due to the great managing of Rod Gardenheyer. Take the Twins on the Money Line.
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