Andre Gomes
ST LOUIS at ARIZONA
Yesterday the D-Backs and the Cardinals opened the series in an authentic high scoring affair game, with the home team winning by 8-6, in a game where he had 4 HR and 24 hits. Honestly I think the bats are still hot right now, but curiously today I think we're gonna have a good chance to make a contrarian pick, which involves a complete different scenario from yesterday's game. The line opened at 9 runs, which gives us some security, so we're going deeper in here.
The D-Backs will send Yusmeiro Petit, who has been pitching like an ace lately, as he had 2.65 ERA and just 0.765 WHIP on his last 6 starts and has just allowed 1-2-2-3 runs on his last 4 games, which shows his consistency.
On the other side the Cardinals will send Adam Wainwright, who come back from DL in great form. He allowed just 1 and 3 runs against the Braves and Brewers, in two good 6 inning performances.
We have two pitchers in here, who are in great form and they prepare to do a good work today. We had a slug fest yesterday, but both teams use to have offensive letdowns in these circumstances. The Cardinals are 6-0-1 Under in their last 7 games when their opponent scores 5 runs or more in their previous game and also Petit is 4-0 Under on his last 4 starts, when their opponent scores 5 runs or more in their previous game. I expect a low scoring game in here, with both offenses struggling and with the pitchers having once again quality starts. Take the under in here.
PLAY 1*unit on Under 9
MINNESOTA at TORONTO
Minny continues their road trip and today they will begin a series against the Blue Jays and their record on this trip is 5-6, which is enough for the Twins to keep in the lead of the division, tied with the White Sox. Today the Twins will send the southpaw Glen Perkins (12-3, 3.96 ERA), who has been very good lately. He is 5-1 on the road and 8-2 on their last 10 games, with Perkins having won their last four decisions.
On the other side, the Blue Jays will send the also southpaw David Purcey, who comes from a tremendous outing last game, allowing just 1 run in 8 innings against the Rays, not being enough for a win, as the Blue Jays lost by 0-1. Also Purcey had 11 SO in that amazing quality start for him. The question is if Purcey will be capable of having a back to back quality start today, as he is yet to do that this season and we have to recent case to see that. In 08/13, he went scoreless in Detroit, with ust 2 hits in 6 innings and then in the following game at home against the Yankees, he allowed 5 runs and 7 hits in just 4 innings.
The oddmakers make this game close to a 50/50 game, but I like the spot for the Twins in here and it's easy to find some edges. The Twins are 46-23 at home this season and in the only series between these clubs this season, the Twins were swept at home by the Blue Jays. If we add that to the fact that last season the Blue Jays had also swept the Twins, we can say this is a revenge game for Minny. Minnesota is also 11-2 against the money line when playing with a day off this season, while the Blue Jays are 1-4 in their last 5 games following a win. The Twins will also make their 7th game in a row vs LHP, something will help them today, as they will be more used to this type of pitchers today. So, with all these facts, I'm taking the Twins today.
PLAY 1* Unit on Minnesota Twins ML
NY METS at MILWAUKEE
Today the Brewers will try to bounce back and for that they will send the southpaw Manny Parra, who has been doing a good season, alternating good performances with average ones, but the truth is that he has a good home record with 6-2 and 3.29 ERA, while he is 4-4 and 4.80 ERA on the road. Parra comes to this game with back to back quality starts and against positive record clubs: Astros and Cardinals, where he allowed 3 runs in 12 innings.
On the other side, the Mets will send the rookie Jonathan Niese, who is an hot prospect for the club, but honestly this won't be the best spot for him to debut. Not only because the Brewers will come fired up after leading yesterday's game until the 8th inning, as also the Brewers will face a southpaw pitcher twice in a row, which will give them a good edge. Just remember not only the Brewers are 4-0 in their last 4 games following a loss, as also they are 23-8 in their last 31 games vs LHP!
The Mets come from a sequence of good results, but they are just 9-16 on the game 2 of a series, after having won the game 1 and Niese will struggle today. Parra has been very solid lately and in fact the Brewers are 5-1 in Parra's last 6 home starts against a winning record team and with this pitchers mismatch, I expect the Brewers to have a nice win today.
PLAY 1* Unit on Milwaukee Brewers ML
Kevin Francis Guaranteed Selections
5000* DIAMOND DOMINATOR AMERICAN LEAGUE GAME OF THE YEAR
Tampa Bay w/Garza -130
Black Magic Sports
1 Unit on A’s/Royals Under 8.5
Two of the worst offenses in the league square off Tuesday in this American League clash. The Royals are scoring just 4.1 runs/game on the season while the A’s are even worse at 3.9 runs/game in 2008. Also, the A’s are scoring 3.0 runs/game in their last 7 contests with virtually no offense to speak of. The Royals throw their Zach Greinke, who has allowed only 1 earned run in his last 17 2/3 innings pitched for a nearly non-existent 0.51 ERA. He has faced the A’s four times in his career, going 2-0 with a 2.87 ERA where the UNDER is 3-1 in those four meetings. Greinke is 30-12 UNDER in his last 42 home starts with a total of 8.5 to 10 runs. Oakland is 7-0 UNDER in road games after a loss by 8 runs or more this season. The A’s are also 7-0 UNDER in road games after allowing 10 runs or more this season. Cash in with the UNDER 8.5 runs in the KC/Oakland game.
Wunderdog
Pittsburgh at Cincinnati
Pick: Cincinnati -1.5 +139
The Pittsburgh Pirates had a fire sale and dealt their top two hitters in Nady and Bay, as well as their top reliever in Marte. The result has been very unkind to the win column. The Pirates have now dropped 10 in a row and are 2-14 over their last 16. The Pirates have been outscored by 80-28 in the 10-game losing streak - not even competitive, dropping games by over five runs a game. Ian Snell is not the answer as the Pirates are just 5-12 in his last 17 starts. In Snell's last 13 losses they have all been by two runs or more. We will back the Reds on the runline here.
Locksmith Sports
1 unit on Arizona D-backs -114
Plays against road underdogs with a money line of +100 to +150 ( ST. LOUIS ) - excellent hitting team (AVG >=.280) against a good starting pitcher (ERA <=3.70) - NL, with a mediocre bullpen whose WHIP is 1.450 to 1.550 on the season are 33-7 (82.5%) since 1997. With yesterday's loss in game 1, the Cards have now lost 4 straight games. They have lost their last 5 road games, their last 4 games with the Snakes, and their last 7 games in Arizona . The D-backs have won 8 of their last 11 against the N.L. Central and 10 of their last 14 game 2's of a series. We'll take the home D-backs in this one.
Vernon Croy
New York Yankees vs. Tampa Bay Rays
Play: Tampa Bay Rays
The Rays starter Matt Garza (11-7, 3.53) has pitched solid at home this season with a 7-2 record and an ERA of just 2.72 over 13 starts and Garza has also pitched solid over his last 3 outings with an ERA of just 1.54 while lasting an average of 7.8 innings per start. Garza allowed just 5 hits and no earned runs over 7 innings in his only start this season against the Yankees and I look for him to have another solid start against them at home tonight. The Rays are hitting .288 as a team over their last 7 games while averaging 6.4 rpg and their opponents are hitting just .226 against them at home this season while averaging just 3.5 rpg. The Rays are 23-9 at home this season when the posted total is 8 to 8.5 and the Yankees are just 4-11 in their last 15 games against a team that has a winning record. Take the Rays.
Tony Karpinski
New York Mets vs. Milwaukee Brewers
Play: Milwaukee Brewers
The Mets are 77-61 while the Brewers are 80-57 but it's the Mets who lead their division (by one game over the Phils) while the Brewers find themselves 4 1/2 games back of the Cubs in theirs. However, the Brewers do lead the wild card race by 4 1/2 games. While Sabathia has gone 9-0 with a 1.43 ERA over his 11 starts with Milwaukee (team is 10-1), Sheets has been pretty mediocre. Sheets was 10-2 with a 2.77 ERA in 17 starts (team was 12-5) prior to the team getting Sabathia but since then, is just 2-5 with a 3.63 ERA over nine starts (team is 4-5). However, one can't ignore the fact that the Mets are a mediocre 36-36 on the road this year, while the Brewers are once again playing well at home (Milwaukee was 99-64 at home the last two seasons). Lets play the Brewers with the better pitcher on the hill Tuesday night. Play on the BREW CREW
John Ryan
Philadelphia Phillies vs. Washington Nationals
Play: Washington Nationals
3* graded play on Washington - This is a series that Phillies fans know theier team has to win, but based on their play yesterday and now a play produced on washington for the second game, the phils may find themsleves up against the wall with 20+ games to go in the season. Hamels has been victimized almost every start with poor run support and could have easily been an 18 game winner this season with a little help from the offense based on how dominating his starts have been. Supporting this graded play is a system that has produced a record of 101-101, BUT making 87.7 units in profits. Play against all favorites with a money line of -175 to -250 starting a pitcher who gave up = 7.50 over his last 3 starts. This is absolutely fine system and is analogous to playing BJ and being paid 1.08 per winning hand. Not bad indeed and I am sure we would all take advantage of that opportunity. Take Washingon.
JR Miller
Major League Baseball
NATIONALS +180 over Phillies (Lannan-any pitcher) (OR +1.5 +106)
INDIANS +107 over Whitesox (Carmona-Danks) (OR +1.5 -146)
RAYS -120 over Yankees (Garza-Mussina)
NATIONALS +180 over Phillies (Lannan-any pitcher) (OR +1.5 +106)
Often when betting on a big underdog we expect to lose the game more often than not. It's all about the value. If you're getting odds of, say, +200, you should take the bet even though you expect to lose roughly 60% of the time. Losing 60 out of 100 games would cost you '6000', but winning the 40 percent at odds of +200 would win '8000'...A '2000' profit over the entire 100 bets.
But this game doesn't apply to that thinking. According to our formulas the Nationals figure to win this game more often than not. We think the average bettor is currently underestimating the Nationals' bats, especially when compared to the Phillies' struggling bats. Philadelphia's starting pitcher, Hamels, has excellent current numbers, better than Lannan's, but Hamels is facing much better bats than Lannan, and Lannan is no slouch. Lannan may do better than Hamels because Lannan is facing softer bats. The Nationals have been getting nearly 13 hits per 9 innings at the plate while the Phillies have been getting less than 8 hits per 9 innings. Moreover, the Nationals have been getting 57 runs per 100 hits; the Phillies have been getting 49 runs per 100 hits.
INDIANS +107 over Whitesox (Carmona-Danks) (OR +1.5 -146)
What are we missing here? This is one of those "too-good-to-be-true" scenarios that mother warned us about. Why aren't the Indians favored by -150 or more? If they were favored by -150, we'd still lay the one-fifty. According to our data, Carmona's recent numbers are better than Danks, the Indians have been getting more hits per inning than the Whitesox, and the Indians' bats have been producing more runs-per-hit...And the game is being played at Cleveland. ..What are we missing?...
Wild Bill
Chicago White Sox -110 (5 units)
Angels -125 (5 units)
Pirates +140 (5 units)
Yankees +105 (5 units)
Astros +185 (5 units)
New York Mets +140 (5 units)
Mariners +150 (5 units)
Athletics +145 (5 units)
Giants -160 (5 units)
Padres +170 (5 units)
Jays-Twins Under 8½ (5 units)
Rockies-Giants Over 9 (5 units)
Larry Ness
MIL (-150) vs NYM
New York's bullpen has been a major problem for the Mets since the All Star break but Monday afternoon, it was Milwaukee's bullpen which faltered, as the Mets won the first game of this series, 4-2, New York scored once in the seventh and three times in the eighth, highlighted by a two-run HR by Delgado off Gagne. In tonight's game, the Mets will turn to Jonathon Niese, a 21-year-old left-hander who will be making his major league debut. Milwaukee counters with Manny Parra (10-6, 4.00 ERA), who is also a left-hander. Parra got off to a fast start in '08 (8-2 in his first 16 starts / team was 11-5) but he's just 2-4 since the beginning of July in 10 starts, with the Brewers going 3-7. His ERA since the break is 4.44. Both team hit lefties well, as the Mets are 27-16 against them this year, while the Brewers are 31-15, including 19-9 here at Miller park. I lost with the Brewers Monday afternoon but will come back with them again, here.
Stephen Nover
New York Yankees @ Tampa Bay Rays
PICK: Tampa Bay Rays
Mike Mussina has been very solid for the Yankees this season. But I'm going to be looking to fade the 19-year veteran down the stretch. This is one such instance when the matchup and low price put me on the slightly favored Rays.
When the Rays are home, you have to bet either on them or stay off the game. Tampa Bay is 48-12 in its last 60 games at Tropicana Field. The Rays haven't let injuries get to them, winning 23 of their past 30 overall games.
The Yankees are playing at their third different venue in three days after being in New York on Sunday followed by a makeup game at Detroit on Monday. Now they have to travel to Tampa. Those kind of road trips are not fun for an aging team this late in the season.
Tampa starter Matt Garza has been excellent at home this season with a 7-2 mark and 2.47 ERA.
The price is short enough to back the favored Rays here.
Ben Burns
Pittsburgh Pirates @ Cincinnati Reds
PICK: Cincinnati Reds
Both these teams have had disappointing seasons. However, while the Pirates have lost 10 in a row, the Reds enter this series having just swept the Giants. Note that they scored a whopping 27 runs in the process. Conversely, the Pirates have only scored 28 runs in their entire 10 game losing streak! Both starting pitchers have also had disappointing results this season. However, while Harang is off back to back quality starts, Snell is coming off a poor game which saw him give up five runs in four innings. For the season, Snell is 2-7 with a 7.07 ERA and 1.935 WHIP on the road. Harang will have the support of a Cincinnati bullpen which has a very respectable 3.42 ERA at home this season. On the other hand, Snell is backed by a Pittsburgh 'pen which has an ugly 5.47 ERA and 1.601 WHIP on the road. Consider laying the price with the 'hotter' team.
Lenny Del Genio
Game: Chicago White Sox at Cleveland Indians
Prediction: Chicago White Sox
Lost in the Cleveland Indians recent renaissance is the fact how sub-par Fausto Carmona has been all season long. Injured for most of the years, Carmona is just 7-5 this year, including 4-4 with a 5.08 ERA at home. This is a crucial game for the White Sox, who fell into a first place tie with Minnesota following yesterday's loss to the Tribe. They'll send John Danks to the hill tonight, who is 6-2 with a 2.87 ERA away from home last season. Head to head play has been dominated by Chicago this year as they've taken 9 of 13 overall from Cleveland. Take Chicago White Sox.
Brandon Lang
10 Dime Mets
Free: Rays