Tuesday Service Plays

Sports Advisors

Chicago Cubs (86-57) at St. Louis (77-66)

The slumping Cubs look to get back on track and extend their lead in the N.L. Central when they send Ryan Dempster (15-6, 2.99 ERA) to the mound to open a three-game series against the archrival Cardinals and Kyle Lohse (13-6, 3.76).

Chicago blew a 3-1 ninth-inning lead at Cincinnati on Sunday, falling 4-3 for its seventh loss in its last eight games. Despite that result, the Cubs are still 14-3 in their last 17 road games, 4-1 in their last five on Tuesdays, and they lead the N.L. Central by 4½ games over Milwaukee.

St. Louis, which was idle on Monday along with Chicago, capped a weekend home series versus Florida with a pair of wins on Saturday (5-3) and Sunday (3-1), which came on the heels of a 1-6 slump. The Redbirds are 8-5 in their last 13 games at Busch Stadium, but on the downside, they’re mired in skids of 1-4 against division rivals, 1-4 after an off day and 0-6 with Lohse on the hill.

The Cubs are 15-7 in the last 22 series meetings in this rivalry, but only 5-4 this year. In fact, the home and road teams have alternated wins and losses in all nine clashes in 2008, with Cubs winning the most recent battle at home.

After a seven-start stretch in which he yielded two earned runs or fewer each time, Dempster has stumbled a bit the last two times out, giving up seven runs in 13 innings (4.85 ERA). Still, the Cubs are 4-1 in his last five starts, and he’s 3-3 with a 3.15 ERA in 11 road efforts. In his only start against the Cardinals this season, the right-hander gave up two runs in 6 2/3 innings, winning 6-2 at home.

Lohse has been a tough-luck pitcher of late, delivering four straight quality starts (2.77 ERA) but he’s got nothing to show for it. Not only are the Cardinals winless in his last six starts, but they’re 1-8 in his last nine, scoring three runs or fewer in seven of those contests. Lohse is 7-2 with a 3.16 ERA at home and 0-1 with a 6.92 ERA in two starts against Chicago in 2008.

The under is on runs of 4-0 for the Cardinals overall, 4-1-1 for the Cardinals at home, 12-5-1 for the Cardinals following a day off and 6-2-1 when these teams face off in St. Louis. Conversely, Chicago sports over streaks of 16-5 on the road, 20-6 on the road against right-handed starters, 4-1 behind Dempster overall and 5-0 when Dempster hurls on the highway.

ATS ADVANTAGE: NONE

AMERICAN LEAGUE

Tampa Bay (85-57) at Boston (85-58)

The Rays, clinging to a half-game lead over the Red Sox in the A.L. East, send ace Scott Kazmir (11-6, 2.99) to the mound opposite Boston’s Daisuke Matsuzaka (16-2, 2.88) in the middle game of a crucial three-game set at Fenway Park.

The Red Sox shutout the Rays 3-0 last night to continue to close in on Tampa for the division lead. Boston has won six of its last seven overall and is on rolls of 56-20 at home, 7-1 against the A.L. East and 21-4 in Matsuzaka’s 25 starts this season (12-2 at home). Going back to last year, the Red Sox are 40-18 behind Matsuzaka, including 23-6 in his last 29 at Fenway.

Tampa Bay has lost six of its last seven overall, five straight on the road and five of its last six against A.L. East rivals. On the bright side, the Rays are 17-5 in Kazmir’s last 22 outings, including 8-1 in his last nine.

Boston now holds a slim 7-6 lead against the Rays in the season series, with the home team winning all 13 meetings. Additionally, Boston has beaten Tampa Bay nine straight times at Fenway dating back to last season, and the Red Sox are on a 46-9 run against the Rays in Beantown and 99-46 against them overall dating back several years.

Kazmir is 3-0 with a 1.93 ERA in his last four starts (all Tampa wins), and he hasn’t scattered four hits and eight walks over 11 1/3 innings in his two most recent starts (both at home). The southpaw is only 4-5 with a 3.96 ERA on the road and 0-1 with a 7.00 ERA in two starts against Boston this season. For his career, though, he’s 6-6 with a 3.02 ERA against the Red Sox, including 4-4 with a 3.02 ERA at Fenway Park.

Matsuzaka has won five straight decisions and the Red Sox are undefeated in his last seven trips to the mound. On Wednesday against Baltimore, the right-hander gave up four runs (three earned) on four hits and four walks in six innings, getting a no-decision in his team’s come-from-behind 5-4 victory. The Japanese native has allowed two earned runs or fewer in 18 of his 25 outings.

Matsuzaka is 9-2 with a 3.05 ERA at home, but 1-3 with a 3.79 ERA in six career starts against the Rays. One of those starts came on July 2 at Tampa Bay, and Matsuzaka gave up a run on two hits and five walks in five innings, getting a no-decision in his team’s 7-6 defeat.

For Tampa Bay, the over is on runs of 8-2 against the A.L. East, 8-2 overall and 5-3 on the highway. However, the under is 5-1 in Kazmir’s last six road starts, 24-9-2 in his last 35 versus winning teams and 7-3 in his last 10 outings at Fenway Park. For the Sox, the under is on runs of 8-2-1 in their last 11 overall, 5-1-1 at home, 5-1-1 behind Matsuzaka overall, 4-0 when Matsuzaka pitches at home.

ATS ADVANTAGE: BOSTON and UNDER

Dwayne Bryant

Texas Rangers at Seattle Mariners
Play: Seattle Mariners -146

Seattle is playing their best baseball of the season. The Mariners, which took two of three from the Yankees over the weekend, have won nine of their last 13 games.

Felix Hernandez is Seattle's leader in wins, ERA, innings pitched and strikeouts. Despite posting a 2.87 ERA in five starts against the Rangers this season, he has compiled an 0-3 record in those outings while receiving just eight total runs of support. I expect Felix's luck to finally change tonight. I expect another solid outing from Hernandez, but this time, with Seattle playing well lately, look for Felix to get enough run support to finally beat Texas this season.

Vicente Padilla is scheduled to return from the disabled list for Texas. After opening the season 12-5, the right-hander has appeared to wear down in late summer, posting an 0-2 record and 6.75 ERA over his last five starts. On August 24, Padilla landed on the DL with a strained left hamstring as well as inflammation between his right shoulder and neck. Padilla owns a 5.33 ERA, 1.60 WHIP and .371 OOBP in 14 road starts this season. He has allowed 25 homers this season, including 13 on the road.

For his career, Padilla is 3-5 with a 4.86 ERA in 13 appearances against Seattle, including 11 starts. Mariners right fielder Ichiro Suzuki is 19-for-34 (.559) in his career against Padilla. Jose Lopez is batting .343 (24-for-70) in the 17 games against Texas in 2008. He is 7-for-24 (.292) lifetime versus Padilla.

The Rangers are 1-8 in their last 9 in game 1 of a series and 1-6 in their last 7 games following a day off. The Mariners are 4-0 in their last 4 during game 1 of a series and they are 4-1 in game 1's against Texas this season. The Mariners are 4-1 in Hernandez's last 5 home starts vs. a team with a losing record. The Rangers are 5-11 in the last 16 meetings in Seattle.

Take Seattle

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Priceless Picks

1 Unit on Nationals/Mets UNDER 8.5
The Under is 5-2 in the last 7 meetings between these teams in New York, 4-1 in the Mets last 5 versus the N.L. East, and 5-2-1 in the Mets last 8 during game 1 of a series. The Under is 4-0-2 in the Nats last 6 Tuesday games, 4-1 in Lannan's last 5 starts during game 1 of a series, and 9-3 in Lannan's last 12 starts when their opponents scores 5 or more runs in their previous game. We'll be the Under here.

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Matt Fargo

Los Angeles Dodgers at San Diego Padres
Prediction: Los Angeles Dodgers

The Padres picked up the win over former teammate Greg Maddux and in doing so, put a halt to the Dodgers eight-game winning streak. It was the second straight win for San Diego but this is where it ends. The Padres have won more than two straight games only three times since June 10th and are 3-7 in their 10 games following back-to-back wins over that stretch. The San Diego pitching has been solid over the last five games but as has been the case all season, the offense remains unproductive.

As mentioned that loss snapped the Dodgers long winning streak but it is certainly not panic mode yet. Los Angeles still has a game and a half lead over the Diamondbacks in the National League West. Last night was the first time nine games that the Dodgers were held to fewer than five runs and just the third time the pitching has allowed more than three runs. Los Angeles has a solid 2.86 ERA over its last 10 games which has dropped the season ERA to 3.74, best in the National League.

Wade LeBlanc will be making just his second Major League start following a very rough debut. He faced the Dodgers at Los Angeles last week and allowed five runs on eight hits and three walks in just four innings. He hit 100 pitches which is certainly not good considering the limited innings pitched. He pitched behind in the count most of the game and faces the same offense yet again. The Dodgers are hitting .283 against left-handed pitching over their last 10 games.

Los Angeles goes with Hiroki Kuroda who has been pitching pretty well following a very rough stretch at the end of July. He posted a 2.29 ERA and 0.81 WHIP in six starts in August which was easily his best month of the season. He allowed four runs in 5.1 innings against the Padres in his last outing but he was able to grab the win. The Padres are hitting only .239 at home which is the lowest home average in the Majors. Los Angeles gets that loss back tonight. Play Los Angeles Dodgers 1.5 Units

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Bryan Leonard

Cleveland Indians @ Baltimore Orioles
PICK: Cleveland Indians

Big hitting edge for the Tribe in this one as they have hit right-handed starters on the road very well. Cleveland scores 4.83 rpg away vs righties as opposed to 3.74 rpg on the road vs southpaws. Baltimore on the other hand struggles here vs left-handed starters scoring only 4.67 runs per game, a full 1.19 runs less than vs righties.

The pitching in this game is questionable with both Sowers and Liz struggling for most of the season. But overall the Tribe is playing with a purpose over the last month or so while Baltimore looks to play out the non-playoff string one more year. Off an embarrassing loss last night we look for Cleveland to rebound with a solid victory tonight.

PLAY CLEVELAND

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Dennis Macklin

Tampa Bay Rays at Boston Red Sox

Surprised to see this total at nine as Scott Kazmir (11-6, 2.99) faces DiceK (16-2, 2.88) in a battle of aces. Kazmir has always had success against Boston (3.02 LT) and is razor sharp 3-0 and 1.93 in his L4 starts. DiceK faces a Ray lineup with no punch and hitting just .247 on the road. John Lester shut out TB last night and we may see beantown go B2B here tonight. Play the UNDER.

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Vegas Experts

Arizona Diamondbacks at San Francisco Giants

The D'backs need to start winning now, as their four-game losing skid has them 1.5 games behind the surging Dodgers in the NL West. Tonight, looks like a good opportunity for the team to get back on track as starter Doug Davis owns a 13-3 team start record in the favorite role while Giants starter Barry Zito has an awful 1-10 TSR in the home dog role. Prior to yesterday's loss, Arizona had won 5 of 6 this season in San Francisco.

Play on: Arizona

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Michael Cannon

Chicago Cubs -120 at ST. LOUIS

Take the Cubs for the road win over the Cardinals tonight.

The Cubs may have hit a bump in the road, but they have been solid gold on the road winning 14 of their last 17 away from Wrigley.

Ryan Dempster will get the start and he’s 15-6 with a 2.99 ERA on the year. The right-hander is 3-3 with a 3.15 ERA in 11 road starts.

Kyle Lohse will get the start for the Cards and he’s received absolutely no run support as of late. The right-hander has delivered four straight quality starts, but the Cards are winless in his last six starts and 1-8 in his last nine. They’ve scored three runs or fewer in seven of those games.

Take the Cubs as they grab the road win.

2♦ CHICAGO CUBS

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Sports Gambling Hotline

Arizona -115 at SAN FRANCISCO

Tonight look for Arizona to snap their 4-game losing streak with the win over San Francisco.

The Diamondbacks couldn't touch all-star Tim Linececum last night, but they should be able to reach tonight's starter, as Barry Zito has gone 0-4 in his last 5 starts against 'Zona, allowing 22 runs in 25 innings of work.

Arizona is still 5-2 in the season series against the Giants in the bay area this season, and southpaw hurler Doug Davis has gone 1-0 his last 2 trips to the bump.

Cheap price on the fading Snakes, so jump on them as they notch the win tonight, and snap the Giants 3 game winning streak.

Play on Arizona.

3♦ ARIZONA

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Dave Price

Nationals / Mets UNDER 8½

The Under is 5-2 in the last 7 meetings between these teams in New York, 4-1 in the Mets last 5 versus the N.L. East, and 5-2-1 in the Mets last 8 during game 1 of a series. The Under is 4-0-2 in the Nats last 6 Tuesday games, 4-1 in Lannan's last 5 starts during game 1 of a series, and 9-3 in Lannan's last 12 starts when their opponents scores 5 or more runs in their previous game. We'll be the Under here.

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Wild Bill

Rays +160 (5 units)
Athletics +135 (5 units)
Nationals +205 (5 units)
Rockies +105 (5 units)
Astros -190 (5 units)
Reds +155 (5 units)
Royals +190 (5 units)
G2 Toronto Blue Jays +105 (5 units)
Cardinals +110 (5 units)
Rangers +140 (5 units)
Arizona D-backs -115 (5 units)
Mets - Nationals Over 8 1/2 (5 units)
Seattle-Rangers Over 8 1/2 (5 units)

Jeff Alexander Sports

1 Unit on Seattle Mariners -146

Seattle has won 6 of 9 and is coming off a big series win over the Yankees. I like the M's to keep on rolling behind their red hot ace tonight. The Mariners are 16-5 in Hernandez's last 21 starts during game 1 of a series, 11-5 in Hernandez's last 16 starts overall, and 5-2 in Hernandez's last 7 home starts. The M's have won 4 straight series openers and have taken 11 of the last 16 home meetings in this matchup. Bet the Mariners

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Black Widow Sports

1* on Philadelphia Phillies -145

The Phillies should crush the Marlins at home with the NL East race in the balance. Philadelphia stepped it up to end the season last year, and they have the mentally-tough players to do the same again this season. Florida knows their chances of making the postseason are gone, and its showing. The Marlins have dropped 3 straight games heading into this contest. Kyle Kendrick pitches his best at home. Kendrick is 5-3 with a 3.69 ERA in home starts this year. He didn’t allow a single run in six scoreless innings against Florida in his last start facing the Marlins. Philly is 23-8 (+11.2 Units) against the money line as a home favorite of -125 to -175 this season. Kendrick is 17-7 (+9.6 Units) against the money line in night games this season. Take Philadelphia on the Money Line.

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John Martin

1 Unit on Atlanta Braves -111

There has been no push to make the playoffs by the Rockies this season. After winning 21 of final 22 games to make the postseason and get all the way to the world series in 2007, the Rockies have failed to get anything going to end their 2008 campaign. The Rockies are 4-5 in their last 9 games and can see their playoff chances slipping away as each day passes. All-Star pitcher Aaron Cook has been anything but an All-Star recently. The sinkerballer has struggled of late, going 2-3 with a 7.12 ERA over his last six starts. The Braves have won 80% of their home games against Colorado this season. The Rockies are scoring just 3.3 runs/game in their last 7 contests, and they are scoring a mere 4.0 runs/game on the road in 2008. Atlanta is 26-10 when playing with a day off over the last 2 seasons. After getting on off day Monday, expect the Braves to put a beat down on the Rockies at home Tuesday night. Cash in with Atlanta as the favorite.

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Dave Price

1 Unit on Nationals/Mets UNDER 8.5

The Under is 5-2 in the last 7 meetings between these teams in New York, 4-1 in the Mets last 5 versus the N.L. East, and 5-2-1 in the Mets last 8 during game 1 of a series. The Under is 4-0-2 in the Nats last 6 Tuesday games, 4-1 in Lannan's last 5 starts during game 1 of a series, and 9-3 in Lannan's last 12 starts when their opponents scores 5 or more runs in their previous game. We'll be the Under here.

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Nelly

St. Louis + over Chicago

The Cubs are 1-7 in the last eight games and Chicago has struggled on the road all season long. This has been a fairly even series this season and the Cardinals are picking up ground in the Wild Card race even though they have not been playing well either. St. Louis has won three of the last five to get back on track and St. Louis has had great results behind Kyle Lohse at home this season.

Lohse is 7-2 in his home starts with a 3.16 ERA and a 1.09 WHIP. Lohse has quality starts in each of his last four outings and the Cardinals beat the Cubs the last time he faced them. Chicago’s offense has scored three or fewer runs in seven of the last nine games and the bullpen has been a severe problem area in recent games.

Ryan Dempster has great overall numbers but he has had almost all of his success at home. Dempster is just 3-3 in road starts compared with 12-3 at home. Opposing batters are hitting .282 against Dempster in the past three starts and he faces a Cardinals offense with a .285 season average against right-handed pitching and great numbers at home. Given how poorly Chicago is playing the home underdog Cardinals are appealing tonight.

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Tom Freese

Texas at Seattle

Texas has won all three starts made by Vincente Padilla vs. Seattle this year while Seattle has lost all four starts made by Felix Hernandez vs. Texas this year. The Rangers are 9-4 their last 13 games vs. the Mariners and they are 10-2 when the Total is 8.0 to 8.5. The Mariners are 15-29 their last 44 games as favorites of -110 or higher. PLAY ON TEXAS +

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Yankee Capper

4 Units - Philadelphia Phillies -150

3 Units - Nationals/Mets Over 8.5 -120

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Info Plays

3* on Arizona Diamondbacks -115

We’ll Play Against - All teams when the money line is +125 to -125 (SAN FRANCISCO) - average hitting team (AVG = .255 to .269) against an average starting pitcher (ERA=4.20 to 5.20) -NL, with a starting pitcher whose gives up 0.5 or less HR's/start. This is an 81-38 ML System hitting 68.1% over the last 5 seasons. After facing Tim Lincecum last night, the Diamondbacks will get their bats going Tuesday against Barry Zito who is 9-16 with a 5.45 ERA on the season. Bet Arizona on the road.

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Big Al

At 7:05pm our selection is on the Tampa Bay Rays and Boston Red Sox 'under' the total. This series could go a long way in determining who wins the AL East Division and who gets the wild card spot in the League. Depending on how the Angels do over the three weeks, this series could also determine the team with the best record in the league and home field advantage throughout the playoffs. With Boston's 3-0 shutout on Monday, the Rays lead is now down to half a game. And the Rays could be in real trouble if they don't win the division and have to play games on the road in the postseason, because one of their only weaknesses this year has been their performance away from Tropicana Field. They are 53-21 in front of the home crowd, but only 32-36 on the road after Monday's loss. This pitching matchup of Tampa lefthander Scott Kazmir vs. Boston righthander Daisuke Matsuzaka is perhaps the best one we'll see in this series. Dice-K has been unstoppable since the end of July, and he only has one loss since the All-Star break. Boston's also won his last seven starts. Kazmir has also been extremely tough lately as he has not given up an earned run in his last two starts covering over 11 innings. Tampa's coaching staff desperately need Kazmir to be healthy, so the Rays are keeping a close eye on his pitch count and have limited his innings as a result. But Tampa has one of the best bullpens in the league, so this has not been a problem. The under is 8-2-1 in Boston's last 11 games overall, and we'll look for another low-scoring affair between these two AL East squads on Tuesday. Take the 'under'.

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MTi

Yesterday's selection for PPD game

Toronto Blue Jays at Chicago White Sox
Prediction: Chicago White Sox

The Blue Jays have won eight straight over some tough teams. Here however, they are facing an opponent that prides itself on breaking winning streaks. Indeed, the White Sox are a perfect 10-0 as a favorite over a team that has won at least their last two games. Also, Chicago is 7-0 at home after a loss in which they drew 1 or fewer walks and a perfect 7-0 when Javier Vazquez starts as a favorite after throwing more than 100 pitches on the road in his last start.Also, Chicago is terrific in the first game of a series when they are off a loss. In fact, Chicago is 7-0 THIS SEASON in the first game of a home series when they are off a loss in which they scored fewer than four runs, winning by an average of FIVE runs per game. Yesterday, the Jays beat the Rays 1-0 holding Tampa to six hits. This is a soft spot for Toronto, as they are 0-6 as a dog after a win in which they allowed 6 or fewer hits.Toronto’s last six wins have all been at home. Traveling tends to break a team’s momentum. The Sox come out motivated and win handily. Consider a moneyline play on Chicago as well.
MTi’s FORECAST: CHICAGO 6 Toronto 3

Yesterday's selection for PPD game

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Scott Spreitzer

Yesterday's selection for PPD game

Toronto Blue Jays at Chicago White Sox
Prediction: Chicago White Sox

I'm laying the price with the White Sox on Monday. Chicago is battling neck and neck with the Minnesota Twins in the AL Central race. Every game matters. Normally the "need to win" teams are priced so high that it's difficult to find value. I don't think that's the case tonight. Chicago is hosting a Toronto Blue Jays team that's in one of the biggest letdown spots I've ever seen. Toronto just swept the Tampa Bay Rays, the best team in their division. Not only that, they just played 17 of their last 20 games against the Rays, the Boston Red Sox, and the New York Yankees. Toronto was sky high for that stretch, and they played very well. Now, it's time for the crash. Javier Vazquez of Chicago has been good to me this season. I like him in this ideal schedule spot. Note that the Sox lost Sunday afternoon to the Los Angeles Angels. Chicago is 10-5 in the game after its last 15 losses. That's a great combination of a home team in a pennant race, in a bounce back spot, facing a visitor that's due to be flat as a pancake. The White Sox minus the price is the Tailor Made GOY!

Yesterday's selection for PPD game

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Nick "BookieKiller" Parsons

Yesterday's selection for PPD game

Toronto Blue Jays at Chicago White Sox
Prediction: Chicago White Sox

If we can keep the rain away from US Cellular Field in Chicago this evening we will be in good shape! Expectations are that the rain should be on it’s way out of the area starting this afternoon. This means that, despite some rain earlier in the day, they should be able to get this one in. That’s good news for us because Javier Vazquez is fully capable of shutting down the Blue Jays and we also look for AJ Burnett of the Jays to get roughed up by a White Sox team that has flourished at home this season. Note that even though Toronto has won eight straight games they are still a team that is four games under .500 on the road. Also, they’re facing one of the top home teams in baseball tonight. The White Sox are a rock solid 25 games above .500 at US Cellular Field this season! Note that Vazquez is just 1-4 in his last five home starts but it hasn’t been his fault as he’s compiled a 3.55 ERA during this stretch of solid work. Tonight, Vazquez absolutely should get the run support and yet he may not need much of it! That’s because the ChiSox right-hander, despite a 2-2 mark, has a stellar 1.15 ERA in his last four starts against the Blue Jays. Toronto’s Burnett has decent numbers against the White Sox as he’s 1-2 with a 3.55 ERA against them in four career starts. However, he’s winless in his last three starts with a 4.15 ERA. Note that Burnett is just 6-7 on the road this season with a 4.13 ERA. The Blue Jays did win his most recent start, at home against the Twins, but previously he had allowed at least four earned runs in four of his last six starts. Keep in mind that, with Vazquez on the mound for Chicago, it’s not going to take much for the White Sox to get the win here! That’s why we’re laying the very small price here with the home team and, because of Burnett’s recent “slip-ups” of four earned runs or more, we’re expecting an easy win to result. That’s why this one is the AL Blowout of the Month!

Yesterday's selection for PPD game

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Wunderdog

Game: Colorado at Atlanta
Pick: Atlanta -116

The Rockies have proven one thing: they do very well at home and have been at their best against left-handed pitching. They are 39-33 at home and 23-17 over lefthanders. Unfortunately for them, neither will be the case tonight when they travel to Atlanta. The Rockies are a money burning 44-60 against right-handed pitching and 28-44 on the road, so they face their worst situation in this one. The Braves, losers of two of every three on the road, are above .500 at home, and Jorge Campillo might finally find himself in a winning situation. Campillo has "plus" stuff and this will be a place for him to shine. I like the Braves here as a virtual even-money home favorite.

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LT Profits

Tampa Bay Rays +155

Yes, the Tampa Bay Rays are showing signs of wilting under pressure and the Boston Red Sox have the 16-2 Daisuke Matsuzaka on the mound, but the effect of this has given tremendous value to Scott Kazmir in this spot.

After all, Kazmir has a comparable ERA to Dice-K (2.99 vs. 2.88) over the entire season, a better WHIP (1.22 vs. 1.33) and a much lower ERA over the last three starts (1.56 vs. 3.60). Kazmir is in raging form right now, as he has allowed three runs or less in eight of his last nine starts, and has allowed a miniscule four hits and posted 13 strikeouts in 11.1 innings over his last two outings.

Now, Boston has won each of the last seven games started by Matsuzaka, but this is the first time in that span that his statistics are not vastly superior to his mound opponent. Also, do not forget that the Red Sox are just 1-4 as a team in his last five starts vs. Tampa Bay since last season.

All things considered, Kazmir seems to ooze value at better that +150 here.

Pick: Rays +155

Washington Nationals @ New York Mets Under 8.5

Oliver Perez of the New York Mets and John Lannan of the Washington Nationals have both been pleasant surprises this season, and each has had some success vs. their respective opponents tonight.

Perez has been plagued by inconsistency in recent seasons, and truth be told, that carried over into the first part of this year. However, as if someone flipped a switch, Perez has suddenly become a model of consistency over the last two months.

He has 11 Quality Starts in his last 13 outings, and he allowed only four runs in each of the two non-quality outings, both against the Houston Astros. The Mets are 10-3 as a team in those Perez starts the last two months, with the Under going 8-4-1. On of these Quality Starts came against these Nationals, where he allowed three runs and six hits in 6.2 innings of a 9-3 win.

Now Lannan may be just 8-13, but he deserves a much better fate than that considering his very good 3.88 ERA. He has allowed two runs or less in four of his last six starts, and he just may have had they best start of his major league career vs. these Mets earlier this season, when he allowed just one run and three hits in six innings with a whopping 11 strikeouts.

Finally, while both bullpens have struggled for most of this year, each has shown tremendous improvement lately, with the Washington bullpen posting a 2.83 ERA in the last 10 games and the Mets pen performing even better, with a 1.14 ERA over this same span.

Pick: Nationals, Mets Under 8.5

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Matt Foust

Kansas City Royals +190

The Kansas City Royals will take on AL Central rivals the Minnesota Twins tonight at the Metrodome. The Royals look like they will again finish in the Central basement while the Twins fight it out with the White Sox for first place. Consequently, we are going to predict the ‘nothing to play for’ Royals to get a close victory tonight.

Royals’ starter Brian Bannister entered the year with a great deal of promise and early in the season he looked to be fulfilling that promise (3-0 in his first three starts). But then the rest of the season came, and he has been up and down for the majority of it. His last win came way back on June 23rd and he sits at 7-14 on the year with an unimpressive 5.56 ERA. However, of late, Bannister has shown some signs of getting things corrected. In his last three starts he has allowed just seven earned runs while striking out 13 and walking six. Opponents have averaged just 3.66 runs per game in that stretch.

Minnesota’s Nick Blackburn is having an excellent year and he has been solid at home. The Twins have lost his last two home starts though, and they have dropped seven of their last 10 games overall. Despite being the superior club to Kansas City, they are just 6-4 against them in the last 10 played at the Metrodome. Yes, that is a winning record, but it is no sure thing and at +190 odds Kansas City is well worth the risk in this situation.

Bannister’s biggest flaw this season has been giving up the long ball, and giving it up with men on base. Minnesota is not a power hitting club though, as they have just 100 home runs on the year, ranking ahead of only KC and San Francisco. Anytime Bannister keeps the ball in the ballpark, the Royals have a good opportunity to win. I think that will be the case tonight as Bannister limits the Twins and KC ekes out just enough runs to pull off the upset.

Things to consider: Kansas City has also won three of Bannister’s last six road starts. The Royals are 4-1 in Bannister’s five career starts versus the Twins, and he has allowed just eight earned runs in those starts.

Take the Royals +190

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Ben Burns

Texas Rangers at Seattle Mariners
Prediction: Seattle Mariners

The line on this game has fallen to the point where I now believe we are getting solid value with the favorite. Hernandez lost at Texas last time out. However, he only allowed one run through 7 1/3 innings. He's still 2-1 with a 2.79 ERA his last three starts. That compares very favorably to Padilla, who is 0-2 (Rangers are 0-3) with a brutal 8.40 ERA and 1.80 WHIP. Consider Seattle

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Wise Guy Handicapping

3 Units Arizona Diamondbacks -120
2 Units Milwaukee Brewers -1.5
1 Unit Boston Red Sox -170
1 Unit Royals/Twins Over 9

THE BOOKIE PAYS YOU:
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Very Simple.... ANGELS. Short, Sweet, and most of all...
A PROVEN WINNER! :-X

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8)

Lenny Del Genio

Cleveland Indians at Baltimore Orioles
Prediction: Over

We were very pleased with yesterday's call here on Baltimore as the underdog O's CRUSHED the Tribe 14-3. Today, we'll stick with this series, but look at the total. Any fan attending tonight's game that's looking for a souvenir may want to reserve a spot in the bleachers for this one. Two terrible pitchers on the mound. Baltimore starter Radhames Liz has seen the Over cash in 12 of 13 starts this season, including all seven at home and all eight when the total is 10 or higher. Meanwhile, Cleveland has some good pitchers, but Jeremy Sowers is not one of them. Over his last three starts, this lefty is sporting an ERA of 9.00. In nine road starts, the ERA is 8.41. Seven of the last eight meetings between these clubs here at Camden Yards have seen the Over cash. Take Over.

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Paul Leiner

100* DBacks -115
25* Mets/Nats Over 8.5
10* Phillies -145

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WINNERS EDGE

Tampa Bay Rays + 150 , 2 units

Cubs/Cards under 8 , 1 unit

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JB's Computer Picks

Boston Red Sox -180
Philadelphia Phillies -145
Los Angeles Angels -180

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Mr A

Pittsburgh Pirates at Houston Astros

The hot Astros have won 11 of its last 12 games, and their last five at home. Meanwhile, the struggling Pirates have lost 14 of their last 17 games, 1-4 in its last five on the road.

Pittsburgh's Ross Ohlendorf (0-0, 4.50), is 0-0 with a 4.50 ERA in his last three starts. The right-hander allowed one run and two hits over two innings in two career outings against the Astros this season.

Houston's Randy Wolf (9-11, 4.47 ERA) is 1-0 with a 2.14 ERA in his last three starts. The lefthander is 5-1 with a 3.61 ERA in eight career starts versus the Pirates.

Let’s continue riding the hot Astros against the plummeting Pirates. Houston is 16-5 in their last 21 games at Minute Maid Park and has won seven of southpaw Randy Wolf’s last 8 starts. Pittsburgh has lost ten of his last 14 road games.

Houston Astros -200

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ROCKETMAN

Arizona @ San Francisco
Play: 1* Arizona -110

San Francisco is 25-45 last 3 years when playing on Tuesday. San Francisco is scoring only 3.9 runs per game overall, 3.9 runs per game at home and 3.7 runs per game against left handed starters. Zito is 3-10 with a 6.57 ERA at home this year. Arizona is 5-2 at San Francisco this year. Zito is 2-6 overall vs Arizona since 1997. Arizona needs to start winning again as they sit 1 1/2 games behind LA Dodgers in the NL West after giving up their 1st place lead. We'll recommend a small play on Arizona.

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Doc's

3 Unit Play. Take Tampa Bay +155 over Boston

This is the game much of American has been waiting for and it will be interesting to see if the Red Sox can finally knock the Rays out of first place in the American League East. Dick-k will be on the mound and he has been outstanding this season despite not being able to go very deep into ballgames. He will enter at 16-2 but his E.R.A. is very similar to that of Scotty-k. Dice-k has not had much success against the Rays in his career, as he is just 1-3 in his two year career. Kazmir has been unhittable of late going 3-0 with a 1.93 ERA over his last four mound trips. This will be a low scoring game and expect the Rays hitters to make Dice-k work early and often and they will stay atop the standing as we collect with a big winner on Wednesday.

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Stephen Nover

Colorado Rockies @ Atlanta Braves
PICK: Over

This total is short considering the current form of starting pitchers Aaron Cook and Jorge Campillo.

Cook's last start was a disaster. He gave up six runs and 10 hits in just three innings to light-hitting San Francisco. His problems may be physical because he's bothered by lower back pain.

The Braves are averaging 6.6 runs in their last six games and have a good history versus Cook. Cook has a 5.56 lifetime ERA in four starts at Atlanta, a good hitter's park.

The 'over' has cashed in 10 of Cook's past 11 starts.

Colorado should be able to score its share of runs off a fading Jorge Campillo, who has a 7.39 ERA in his last six starts. Matt Holliday has been in a slump, but could snap out here. He's a lifetime .387 hitter versus the Braves. The Braves have one of the worst bullpens in the majors.

This has been an 'over' series. The 'over' is 7-1-1 in the past nine head-to-head meetings.

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Marc Lawrence

Underdog GOW

*3 Tampa Bay

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Bet Firms

3* on Arizona Diamondbacks -115

We'll Play Against - All teams when the money line is +125 to -125 (SAN FRANCISCO) - average hitting team (AVG = .255 to .269) against an average starting pitcher (ERA=4.20 to 5.20) -NL, with a starting pitcher whose gives up 0.5 or less HR's/start. This is an 81-38 ML System hitting 68.1% over the last 5 seasons. After facing Tim Lincecum last night, the Diamondbacks will get their bats going Tuesday against Barry Zito who is 9-16 with a 5.45 ERA on the season. Bet Arizona on the road.

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AntonWins

2 units Tampa Bay +160

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Greg Shaker

Kansas City Royals at Minnesota Twins
Twins -1.5

Runline plays have to contain a number of components to be a play and tonight we have just that. The Royals have been winning some games but they will hit the road where they have not been very competitive and they will do it with argueably the worst Road Thrower in the Major League's. Bannnister has an ERA of well over 9 runs when he stays in a Hotel and he has been known to serve up room service to batters quite often. His Innings/Hits Ratios are about as bad as I have ever seen. That would be 92 Hits, in 58 Innings. That is not going to win many game and his team has not done that with him on the mound in this situation. Our thrower is considered a Homer, and he does like to throw here in the dome, with great ratios across the board and an ERA Under 3 runs. I am aware of the fact that he has not as spiffy lately as earlier in the year, but this one is just what the doctor ordered. The Twins have certainly got the motivation needed to win, they are in their best hitting posture here at home tonight facing the righty, and they have been a monster of a team here as well. KC has never faired well verses Minnesota, and our team has won their last 43 of 62 here. We are going to score tonight, and we have a thrower can hold the Royals attack down. We also have a Bullpen that has been Light's Out here in the Dome. Let's lay the 1.5 runs and wait for Bannister to knock on our door with a plate of Eggs Benedict...

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EZWINNERS

3 STAR: (967) TAMPA BAY (+$143) over Boston
(Listing Kazmir only) (Risking $300 to win $429)

3 STAR: (973) KANSAS CITY (+$180) over Minnesota
(Listing Bannister only) (Risking $300 to win $540)

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Jimmy Thompson Guaranteed Selections

Arizona/San Francisco over 8.5

The D-Backs are reeling as they have now lost 4 straight divisional games and dropped 1.5 games back of the Dodgers. There is nothing better for any team that is struggling than to see Barry Zito take the rubber. Zito has been hammered by the D-Backs with a 2-6 mark and an ERA around 5.5 in his career. On the other side Doug Davis has also had problems with the Giants and particularly Winn and Molina who really are the catalysts of the Giants offense. You could see the bullpens pretty early in this game and from where we sit it's tough to imagine this game not being an over before the 7th inning even starts. We will give the D-Backs the edge tonight as they win 8-6!

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Scott Spreitzer

ROAD WARRIOR GAME OF THE WEEK!

I'm laying the price with the Cubs on Tuesday. Ryan Dempster has had a strong season and he's been excellent since the all-star break. In nine starts since mid-July, Dempster has gone 5-2 while posting a 2.44 ERA & 1.27 WHIP. The Cubs have won each of his last four starts away from Wrigley. The righthander has been even better in those contests, allowing only five earned runs and 27 base runners, while striking out 33 in just 27 innings of action. That's a 1.67 ERA & 1.00 WHIP in his last four road starts. The Cards have been nothing special in home night games against righties. The fact that they are under .500 in this situation will likely keep them out of a wildcard berth in the postseason. Meanwhile, the Cubs will face Kyle Loshe. He has six lifetime starts against the northsiders, and has not fared well, sporting a hefty 5.17 ERA, 1.47 WHIP, and .297 BAA! The Redbirds have lost each of his last six outings overall, and they're just 2-8 in his last 10. Look for Chicago to hammer won more nail into the Cardinals' playoff-chance coffin on Tuesday. the Cubs are my Road Warrior GOW.

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Brian Graves

Pittsburgh vs. Houston
Pick: Astros

The Astros are quickly getting themselves into the wild card race and a sweep of the Pirates will mean it could be a race to finish with Milwaukee and the Mets/Phillies loser in the East. Randy Wolf has been very good for the Astros since coming over and he'll get it done again as Houston will bomb Ohlendorf right away and coast home for a 9-3 win!

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Gregg Price

Texas Rangers vs. Seattle Mariners
Play: Texas Rangers

Texas - We'll take the dog here as Hernandez just can't beat the Texas rangers. He is 0-3 this year and 4-7 in his career. Padilla has struggled of late, but will be up for the challenge tonight.

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John Ryan

Toronto Blue Jays vs. Chicago White Sox GM2
Play: Toronto Blue Jays

Simulator 3* graded play on TORONTO – Toronto is the hottest team in the AL and their bullpen has had a lot to do with their recent success. The group sports a 2.11 ERA and a 1.172 WHIP over the past 7 games and has allowed just 1 HR in 21.3 innings worked. Supporting this graded play is a system that has gone 32-14 making 29 units for 70% since 1997. The most impressive feature of this system is that the average play has been a dog of +134.3. Toronto starter Litsch is coming of a complete game shit out 4 hitter against the Twins. Toronto also in a strong role noting they are 13-4 (+11.1 Units) against the money line versus teams outscoring opposition by 0.5 or more runs/game in the second half of the season this season. Take Toronto.

Karl Garrett

Colorado +105 at ATLANTA

Tonight on the diamond, take Colorado over Atlanta.

The Rockies will go with Aaron Cook who is 16-9 on the season. Cook has beefed up his record with a 10-3 mark on the road this season, and has already worked 7 solid innings of 1 run ball in a home April no-decision against the Bravos.

Colorado took 3 of the 4 meetings in that set against Atlanta, and I like them to open with the win tonight.

Jorge Campillo has struggled down the stretch, and is 0-1 his last 3 efforts with 11 runs allowed in just 14 innings of work.

The Braves have dropped their last pair, and 7 of 10, and they drop another tonight.

4♦ COLORADO

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Drew Gordon

Colorado +105 at ATLANTA

While I'll admit the Braves are clearly much better at Turner Field, do not make the mistake of underestimating the Rockies with their ace on the hill tonight on the road. True, the Rockies overall road record is poor (28-44 away), but that doesn't take into account their recent surge on the highway, winning 9 of their last 13 games away!

True, Cook looked nothing like an ace in his last start, getting roughed up by the Giants for 6 runs in 3 innings. But let's not get carried away, every pitcher is going to have an off-day, and fact of the matter is Cook has been downright nasty on the road, going 10-3 with a 3.57 ERA! That's almost a run lower than his ERA at Coors (4.53), and you know damn well he'll be targetting this game for a solid bounce back tonight!

The Rockies slumping offense gets just what the doctor ordered in Atlanta's Jorge Campillo tonight, as the Braves righty has been terrible over his last 6 starts, going 1-3 with a 7.39 ERA. We've seen a steady decline from Campillo as his innings pitched keeps rising, and its safe to say he's starting to fatigue. Look for the Rockies to take advantage of the struggling Campillo in this one, just like the Giants and Cubs did in his last two home starts (combined 10 runs surrendered on 14 hits over 11 2/3 innings)!

Finally, while making the postseason may need a miracle, at least Colorado has something to play for. Atlanta meanwhile, has lost 20 of 27 games, and is playing like a team counting down to the offseason. Cook is the unquestioned ace of this staff, and I expect the road-warrior will bounce back nicely tonight at Turner! Rockies roll!

Take Colorado behind Cook over Atlanta and Campillo in this MLB match up.

3♦ COLORADO

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Sports Gambling Hotline

Arizona -115 at SAN FRANCISCO

Tonight look for Arizona to snap their 4-game losing streak with the win over San Francisco.

The Diamondbacks couldn't touch all-star Tim Linececum last night, but they should be able to reach tonight's starter, as Barry Zito has gone 0-4 in his last 5 starts against 'Zona, allowing 22 runs in 25 innings of work.

Arizona is still 5-2 in the season series against the Giants in the bay area this season, and southpaw hurler Doug Davis has gone 1-0 his last 2 trips to the bump.

Cheap price on the fading Snakes, so jump on them as they notch the win tonight, and snap the Giants 3 game winning streak.

Play on Arizona.

3♦ ARIZONA

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Jeff Benton

We will back the Reds at a nice plus price against the struggling Brewers.

Cincinnati is getting a lift from its young minor-league call-ups, as the Reds have won seven of their last 10 games, including two straight the last two days in miracle, ninth-inning fashion. On Sunday at home against the Cubs, Cincy got three runs off Kerry Wood to turn a 3-1 deficit into a 4-3 win. Then last night, down 4-1 at Milwaukee, the Reds rallied for a 5-4 victory.

Meanwhile, with the Cubs scuffling and giving the Brewers every opportunity to steal the division title, Milwaukee has refused to take it, having lost six of its last eight games … all at home, if you can believe that.

Tonight, the pitching matchup features Jeff Suppan against Reds rookie Ramon Ramirez. Now, Suppan has been slightly above average lately, but the fact is the Brewers are only 6-5 in his 11 home starts this year. And even though Suppan has dominated Cincinnati recently, this is an entirely different Reds lineup … one that Suppan doesn’t have much of a scouting report on.

As for Ramirez, he’s got a live arm – see his six strikeouts in seven innings in his debut against the Giants on Aug. 30, when he gave up just three runs on five hits and two walks in a 7-6 home victory. And I think the kid is going to have a ton of success against a free-swinging and pressing Brewers lineup, which entered last night batting .236 in its previous 10 games against right-handers. Good spot play on the Reds here, as Milwaukee is clearly wilting under the September pressure.

2♦ CINCINNATI REDS

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Matt Rivers

Tuesday take the Padres at home.

San Diego has not been a good ballclub at all this season but there are some factors going our way in this thing and therefore I will back Bud Black's squad at this generous price for the second straight day.

Last week Hiorki Kuroda and the boys from Los Angeles beat Wade Leblanc in his major league debut, 6-4. I never mind a team in revenge like this when the pitching matchup is the same because more times than not it seems that we see things even up. Granted the Padres' lefty is not exactly a guy that we can trust but he at least has one start under his belt and today in a pitchers' paradise of PETCO should be alright and hold his own.

Kuroda has had a fine first season in the states and has a solid upside which we have seen this season but is still really not much above an average hurler overall. He is good and better than LeBlanc but in this one game scenario he very well may not be.

LA is the better team and has more to play for today, there is no denying that. They also have the best player on the field in Manny but Joe Torre's team is still not an offensive juggernaut at all and definitely can lose this game in this spot.

We may need an Adrian Gonzalez big fly as our offense is very lacking but there is enough here to back the home dog and that is exactly what I am going to do.

The price is right and that is the bottom line!

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Jake Timlin

Tuesday selection is the Colorado Rockies.

Desperate for a road win and going with they Ace I like the Rockies plus money tonight. Yes thanks to Aaron Cook and his 10-3 road record this year I look for the Rockies to open up tonight’s series against the Braves a winner. After all thanks to the Braves sucking right now having lost 7 of their last 10 games and going with Campillo who is 1-3 with a 7.39 ERA in his last 6 starts it’s not like Colorado is catching a good team in Atlanta tonight. Plus, thanks to the Rockies going 3-1 at home against the Braves earlier this year it is clear that Colorado are in good shape to take another one in this series.

All Colorado!

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3Daily Winners

Los Angeles Dodgers vs. San Diego Padres
Play: Los Angeles Dodgers

The Dodgers may have lost last night to San Diego, but are set up as being in a good spot on Tuesday. Play On road favorites with a money line of -125 or more averaging 2.75 or less extra base hits per game on the season, after two straight games with no home runs. The theory here is L.A. is ready to bust out with some offense. This dandy system is 42-10, 80.8 percent since 2004. Play the Dodgers.

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Joseph D'Amico

Tampa Bay Rays vs. Boston Red Sox
Play: Under 8.5

Today's Winning Free play is the Boston Red Sox/Tampa Bay Devil Ray's UNDER 9. Between these two teams they have 126 Over's and 144 Under's this season. In their 13 meetings this season, only 5 games had a combined total score of more than 9 runs. If you take a look at these two A.L. East powerhouses,for two teams that are known for their offensive prowess,they both have alot of Under's recently. Under is 8-2-1 in Boston's last 11 games. Tampa Bay has 22 Under's in their last 32 road games and Under is 24-9-2 in Kazmir's last 38 starts vs. a team with a winning record. Yesterdays matchup resulted in a 3-0 Boston victory. Tampa Bay has Kazmir pitching today. In his last three starts ,the left-hander is 2-0 with a 1.56 ERA. On the mound for the Red Sox is ace Matsuzaka. he is 9-2 at home with an ERA of 3.05. In the right-hander's 5.0 innings pitched versus the Devil Ray's this season he has an ERA of 1.80. With two very good "control" pitchers on the mound, I look for this game to be a dead UNDER.

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Jorge Gonzalez

Chicago Cubs at St. Louis

Play: Chicago 1 unit

The Cubs have been slumping a bit as of late but will need no motivation to face their division rivals St. Louis Cardinals. The Cubs have lost seven of their last eight games coming into this three-game series. While the Cubs are in first place of the National League Central Division with a record of 86-57, the Cardinals are trailing the second wild card spot by 1 ? behind Philadelphia. Despite those that believe the curse that the Cubs cannot win a World Series, Chicago is a very good team that I have not given up on yet. The Cubs lead the National League in scoring with 769 runs and holding their opponents to a batting average of just .242. The Bullpen has been one of the best in the league but has reverted to its old ways blowing a 3-1 at Cincinnati in the bottom of the ninth. Over the last 10 games, the Cubs bullpen has an Era of 10.50.

I do not look for the Cubs losing streak to continue. With Lou Pinella as the manager and the talent that this team has, I like them here in the first game of this series. The Cubs have 14 of their last 17 games away from Wrigley Park. The Cubs will be the reliable Ryan Dempster to the mound to take on Kyle Lohse of the Cardinals. The Cubs have won four games that Dempster has started while the Cardinals have lost the six games that Loshe has started. Overall, the Cubbies have won 15 of the last 22 meetings between the two teams. Take the Cubs here as a small favorite.

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JR Miller

NATIONALS +1.5 +109 at Mets (Lannan-Perez) (OR +202)
BRAVES -1.5 +183 over Rockies (Campillo-Cook) (OR -111)
REDS +152 at Brewers (Ramirez-Suppan) (OR +1.5 -134)
GIANTS +102 over Diamondbacks (Zito-Davis)
REDSOX -1.5 +134 over Rays (Matsuzaka-Kazmir) (OR -152)

CASH & PROFIT EXPERTS

TAMPA BAY RAYS vs BOSTON REDSOX
Play: RAYS / REDSOX UNDER 8.5 (POD)

TORONTO BLUE JAYS vs CHICAGO WHITE SOX
Play:GAME#2: Toronto Blue Jays +105

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Ethan Law

NEW YORK YANKEES

Opposite Action Plays

SAN FRANCISCO GIANTS

Sunday Selections

PHILADLEPHIA PHILLIES

LT Profits

Rockies / Braves UNDER 8.5

Mike Rose

D'Rays / Red Sox OVER 8.5
New York Mets -113

Rocketman Sports

FLORIDA MARLINS

Alex Smart

MINNESOTA LYNX

Pacific Star

New York Mets -111

Wildcat

Tampa Bay

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Joey Gaffney

8* New York Mets -130
5* LA Angels -120
5* St Louis Cardinals -230

Jeff Scott Sports

3 UNIT PLAY

Texas/ Seattle Over 8.5

The Over is 18-3-2 in Padillas last 23 starts during game 1 of a series and 30-14-2 in Padillas last 46 starts overall, while the Over is 12-5-1 in Mariners last 18 games following a win and 20-9 in their last 29 Tuesday games. The Mariners offense has been better of late, scoring 4.9 rpg in their last 7 games, plus they have scored 4.5 rpg vs the West this year, plus they have scored 6.2 rpg in their last 10 games vs the Rangers. The Rangers offense has been strong all year, scoring 5.5 rpg overall, plus they really hit righty starters as they are hitting .282 and scoring 5.6 rpg vs them on the year, plus they have scored 5.8 rpg in their last 13 vs Seattle.Vicente Padilla has 4.98 ERA overall and a 5.33 ERA on the road, plus a 5.29 ERA at night. His road starts have averaged 10.7 rpg, while his night starts have averaged 12 rpg. Felix Hernandez has been good for the Mariners this year, but he does have a career 4.00 ERA vs the Rangers. I do see plenty of runs in Seattle tonight.

2 UNIT PLAY

Cleveland/ Baltimore Over 11

The Over is 15-7-2 in Indians last 24 vs. a team with a losing record and 9-3 in Sowers' last 12 starts during game 2 of a series, while the Over is 37-14-3 in Orioles last 54 games vs. a left-handed starter and 9-0 in Lizs last 9 starts following a team loss in their previous game. I used the Over between these 2 teams alast night and it was an easy winner. I will come right back with it tonight. Jeremy Sowers has really been bad for the Tribe this year as he has a 6.53 ERA overall and an 8.51 ERA on the road, plus he has a 7.69 ERA at night. Jeremy also has a 9.50 ERA in 4 starts vs the O's, with all 4 games ending in double digits. Radhames Liz has laso been a bad pitcher this year as he has a 7.91 ERA overall, including a 6.03 ERA at home and an 8.63 ERA at night. HIs overall starts have averaged 13.6 rpg, while his home starts have averaged 14.7 rpg and his night starts have averaged 13.2 rpg. Liz' last 7 starts have really been brutal as he has a 10.27 ERA overa that span, with those games averaging 15 rpg. Wow. Baltimore home games have averaged 10.7 rpg on the year, while their last 7 over all have averaged 13.4 rpg. The Orioles score 5.3 rpg at home and 5.4 rpg at night, while the Indians put up 5.2 rpg at night. The 5 games between these teams have averaged 14.8 rpg this year and I can clearly see another game that puts at least 15 runs on the board.

I ALSO LIKE

MINNESOTA RL (-110) over Kansas City

1 UNIT PLAY

Chicago -109 over ST LOUIS

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Scott Rickenbach

New York Yankees @ Los Angeles Angels
PICK: Los Angeles Angels

It is not a star rated pick as the Angels are pricier than I like to use as a star rated pick. However, I do see value with Los Angeles here and that’s why you’re reading about them in this spot. The Angels have a chance to win the AL West tonight. Their magic number is just two so a Los Angeles win coupled with a Texas loss would lock up the AL West. Certainly there is a chance that the Rangers could lose tonight as they’re bringing Vicente Padilla off of the disabled list to start that game while the Mariners have their best pitcher, Felix Hernandez, on the mound tonight. In other words, the Angels know they have a good shot at clinching the division title tonight and who better to do that against than the Yankees! The Angels have shown a knack for being able to dominate the Bronx Bombers and last night’s 12-1 win was no exception! Look for more of the same tonight!

The Yankees give right-hander Alfredo Aceves the start tonight. He was signed from the Mexican League earlier this season. This will be his first ever major league start and it’s a tough one as he’s matched up with Erwin Santana of the Angels. The Los Angeles right-hander is having a simply phenomenal season and he certainly would like to be the guy that gets the win on the night the Angels sew up the AL West. Santana is unbeaten in his last seven starts as he’s gone 4-0 with a 2.31 ERA during this stretch. He’s also a perfect 3-0 at home against the Yankees and, in his career, he’s an overall 5-1 against the Bronx Bombers. Right now there’s not much “Bomb” in the boys from the Bronx as the Yankees have lost four of their last five and they’ve scored just four runs combined in their last three losses! Santana faced the Yanks in early August and held them to just five hits in eight innings in a 1-0 win. Look for Santana to once again pitch a solid game tonight as he just continues an amazing season but, unlike his last start versus the Yanks, he should get some solid run support tonight.

The Angels exploded for 12 runs last night and this included banging up on a Yankees bullpen that has proven quite vulnerable recently. That’s even more bad news for the Yanks tonight because Aceves, in his first ever big league start, may not last long! That would further tax the bullpen and the Angels do come into this game with a lot of confidence. That means there will be some focused hitters at the plate tonight and the Angels are 10-6 in their last 16 games and they’ve averaged over five runs per game during this solid stretch. There is no love lost between these clubs after last night’s bench-clearing brawl and that further adds value to the Angels tonight because we know they will not “let up” here. It’s too early to “coast” as they still need to wrap up the AL West and, while Seattle is battling it out with Texas tonight, look for the Angels to be taking care of business further down the coast! Play the Los Angeles Angels.

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Vernon Croy

G2 Toronto Blue Jays vs. G2 Chicago White Sox
Play: Toronto Blue Jays

We are getting great value here with the red hot Blue Jays who should be favored by at least -150 in this game with Jesse Litsch (10-8, 3.76) on the mound. Litsch is 2-1 with an ERA of just 0.94 over his last 4 starts and he is 1-0 this season against the White Sox with an ERA of just 2.46 while lasting 7.3 innings. Clayton Richard (2-3, 6.39) has struggled overall this season with an ERA of 6.52 over 6 starts and I look for the Jays to hit him hard tonight. The Jays were 4-0 against the White Sox this season before game 1 of this double header and they are hitting .308 as a team over their last 7 games while their opponents are hitting just .229 against them while averaging just 2.7 rpg. The Jays are 5-1 in Litsch's last 6 starts against the AL Central I look for another solid outing from him tonight. Take Toronto as your free play for Tuesday night and make sure you get on my 20 Unit MLB Smash as my 7-1 overall run continues tonight.

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PowerPlayWins

Philadelphia Phillies -144

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Oscarxena Sports

3 Units Cincinnati +1.55

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Robert Ferringo

2-Unit Play. Take Milwaukee (-165) over Cincinnati

1.5-Unit Play. Take Chicago White Sox (-110) over Toronto
Note: If Chicago loses GAME 1 of this Doubleheader, take 2-Unit Play. Take #976 Chicago White Sox (-115) over Toronto (8 p.m., Tuesday, Sept. 9). If the White Sox WIN the first game, no play on the second.

1-Unit Play. Take Minnesota (-1.5, -110) over Kansas City

Today's Totals
3-Unit Play. Take ‘Over’ 8.5 Arizona at San Francisco
2-Unit Play. Take ‘Under’ 9.5 Cincinnati at Milwaukee
1.5-Unit Play. Take ‘Over’ 9.0 New York Yankees at Los Angeles Angels

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Ted Sevransky

3* Nationals vs Mets UNDER 8.5
3* Cincinnati Reds +150

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LT Profits

2* Rockies vs Braves UNDER 8.5

2* Cincinnati Reds +150

2* Kansas City Royals +180

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FairWay Jay

3* Toronto Blue Jays +103 GAME 2

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AJ Apollo

3* Florida Marlins +135
3* Atlanta Braves -115

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Bob Akmens

5* New York Mets -230
5* Minnesota Twins -210

5* Chicago Sky -6.5
5* Seattle Storm 4.5

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Ben Burns

4* Best Baltimore Orioles -105

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Mike Rose

3* Diamondbacks vs Giants OVER 8.5
3* Rays vs Red Sox OVER 8.5
3* Pittsburgh Pirates +180

Larry Ness

Terrific Tuesday Total (won 12 of L18 weeks in MLB!)

My Terrific Tuesday Total is on Arz/SF Over at 10:15 ET. Barry Zito struggled in '07, his first year after signing his HUGE contract with the Giants. Zito went 11-13 with a 4.53 ERA in 33 starts (team was 14-19). However, those troubles were nothing compared to the way he opened '08, as Zito lost his first eight decisions of '08 (team went 0-9 in his starts)! Zito has turned things around since that horrendous start though, as he's been a .500 pitcher since, going 9-8 in his last 19 starts (team is 10-9). However, he continues to struggle at home, where he's 3-10 on the year with a 6.57 ERA. Doug Davis will start for the D'backs, who have fallen below .500 for the first time since July 23, with last night's 6-2 loss to the Giants. After dominating NL West foes for most of the year (34-16 against division opponents through August 24), the D'backs have now lost NINE of their last 10 games against division opponents. Arizona has lost 11 of its last 14 overall and seven straight to division foes. Doug Davis (6-8, 4.58 ERA) gets the start for Arizona and the D'backs have lost six of his 10 starts since the break, with SEVEN of those 10 going 'over.' He's 3-5 with a 5.10 ERA in 11 starts and one relief appearance against the Giants, including allowing six runs over five innings of an 11-3 home loss to San Francisco on May 28 of this year (lone '08 start vs SF). As for Zito, he's 0-3 with a 7.40 ERA in four starts vs against Arizona in '08. Terrific Tuesday Total Arz/SF Over.

Las Vegas Insider-MLB (50-29 with MLB Insiders since May 26)

My Las Vegas Insider is on the Sea Mariners at 10:10 ET. What a difference a year makes. The Mariners won 88 games last year and were MLB's second-biggest "money-makers," going plus-$1,924 vs the moneyline. As they open a two-game series with the Rangers on Tuesday, the Mariners are 56-86 and at minus-$2,649 vs the moneyline, rank 28th of 30 MLB teams. The Rangers finished last in the AL West last year (75-87) but enter this game at 70-74, which is good enough for second-place this season. In an odd quirk, the Rangers finished 19 back of the first-place Angels last year and even though they are in second place this year, are still 17 1/2 games back. Vicente Padilla (12-7, 4.98 ERA) is scheduled to return from the DL tonight and get the start for the Rangers. The Rangers are 17-8 (plus-$1,253) in his starts this year (that's 5th-best in MLB) but most observers think he's wearing down. He's winless in his last five outings (6.75 ERA) and the team has lost his last three starts, with Padilla allowing 21 hits and 14 ERs over 15 innings (8.40 ERA). After a five-inning start at home vs Cleveland on August 24, Padilla was placed on the DL with a strained left hamstring as well as inflammation between his right shoulder and neck. Supposedly, both injuries have healed enough for the Rangers to activate him. Seattle will start Felix Hernandez. Hernandez was terrific in '07, going 14-7 with a 3.92 ERA, as the Mariners made him MLB's fourth-biggest "money-maker" last year, going 21-9 (plus-$1,020) in his starts. Hernandez has pitched well in '08 allowing 165 hits in 175.1 innings, posting a 3.18 ERA and a strikeout-to-walk ratio of 157-68. However, he's just 9-9 because he's gotten only 3.95 RPG of support, the second-lowest average among AL starters. He's had no luck at all vs the Rangers in '08, as he's 0-3 in five starts (team is 1-4), despite a 2.87 ERA. The culprit has been the eight total runs he's received in support over those five outings. Isn't it about time Hernandez received some 'love' from his teammates? After going 21-9 in his starts last year, the Rangers are just 12-9 (plus-$106) in his '08 starts but a closer look reveals just how good that is. Remember, the Mariners are just 56-86 in '08, meaning that with Hernandez on the mound they've played .556 baseball (15-12), while with any other starting pitcher, they've gone just 41-74, or .357. Let's say the "SIXTH time is the charm" for Hernandez tonight, as the Mariners enter playing their best baseball of the year (have won NINE of 13). Las Vegas Insider on the Sea Mariners.

NSA

20* Cardinals
10* Phillies
10* LAD/SD Under
10* TB/Bos Under
10* Col/Atl Under
10* KC/Min over

KELSO

High Rollers Club

10 units Angels
10 units Mariners
10 unit Parlay

Steam On-Line Guaranteed Selections

5000* LATE STEAM BASEBALL WINNER
Chicago Cubs w/Dempster -110

Winners Inc. Guaranteed Selections

5000* GRAND SLAM BASEBALL WINNER
Milwaukee w/Suppan -159

The Hammer Guaranteed Selections

PRIVATE INVESTORS CLUB RUN LINE BASEBALL WINNER
NY Mets w/Perez -1.5 -110

The Hitman Guaranteed Selections

5000 LARGE DIAMOND BASEBALL WINNER
LA DODGERS w/Kuroda -155

William Kidd Guaranteed Selections

QUADRUPLE DIME BASEBALL DOG WINNER
Tampa Bay w/KAzmir +140

Vegas Runner

SEA (-145) vs TEX 2* ML WAGER

HOU -1.5 (+100) vs PIT 2* RUN-LINE BET

OAK (+132) vs DET 2* ML WAGER

ATL / COL Under 9 2* TOTAL

ATL (-113) vs COL 3* NL GAME of the WEEK