Billy Coleman
4* Seattle
3* Cubs
3* Mets/Wash Under
NSA
20* Red Sox
10* Reds
10* Brewers
10* Phillies
10* White Sox
10* Min/Clev Under
Erin Rynning
PLAYMAKER: RED SOX / RAYS UNDER
REGULAR: SEATTLE
Larry Ness
15* NL Game of the Week (185-102 two-year run)
My 15* play is on the Hou Astros at 7:10 ET. Hurricane Ike really took a toll on the Astros' postseason chances. The team's three-game series with the Cubs, scheduled to be played in Houston this past weekend was postponed and the Astros were forced to play the Cubs Sunday and Monday in Milwaukee's Miller Park. It was not even a neutral site, as Cub fans easily made the trip. Carlos Zambrano no-hit the Astros on Sunday night (5-0) and Lilly followed with seven innings of scoreless ball on Monday afternoon (one hit and nine Ks), as the Cubs won again, 6-1. The Astros had won six straight and 14 of 15 games prior to this weekend and the venue change was a 'killer.' However, the Astros are in good shape to get back on the winning track tonight, behind the pitching of Roy Oswalt. Oswalt opened the '08 season 0-3 with a 9.00 ERA in his first three starts and for the better part of the season's first half, struggled with his mechanics. On 7/11, he lasted just one inning vs Washington and was the placed on 15-day DL with a left hip adductor strain. Oswalt returned to the mound on July 28 and he's been "the Oswalt of old," since. He's 8-1 with a 1.94 ERA over 10 starts (team is 9-1) and enters this game off back-to-back complete game shutouts over Colorado and Pittsburgh (allowed just four hits). He's lasted at least eight innings in FIVE of his last six starts and hasn't allowed a run in 32.1 innings, passing JR Richard's franchise record of 31 consecutive scoreless innings in his last outing. All of a sudden, the Marlins have won five straight but their wild card chances are all but gone. Opposing Oswalt in this game is rookie Chris Volstad (4-3, 3.31 ERA). Volstad's made 12 appearances (11 starts) and surprisingly, has been better on the road (2.32 ERA / team is 4-1), than he's been here in Miami (4.19 ERA / team is 2-4). Let's ride Oswalt and the Astros in this one. NL Game of the Week 15* Hou Astros.
15* Pitching Mismatch of the Week (185-102 two-year run)
My 15* play is on the Phi Phillies ta 7:10 ET. Philadelphia won 13 of its last 17 games in '07 to earn its first division title since 1993, benefiting from the Mets' collapse. The Phillies are hoping their four-game weekend sweep of the Brewers will be the catalyst for another strong finish and another division title (or wild card spot) in '08. The Phillies have 12 games left and open a three-game series tonight in Atlanta against the Braves. The 67-83 Braves will miss the playoffs for the third straight season after making 14 postseasons in a row from 1991-2005 (the '94 postseason was lost to a strike). Atlanta began the year playing very well at home (opened 25-8) but have gone just 16-16 in Turner Field after that fast start. Philadelphia should be very confident entering this series, as it has won 10 of 12 meetings with the Braves this year. The Phils also own a HUGE advantage in tonight's pitching matchup. Philly will go with 45-year-old left-hander Jamie Moyer (14-7, 3.68 ERA), who's won three straight starts with a 2.50 ERA. The Phillies have won SIX of his last seven starts (3.32 ERA) and he's been a much better pitcher on the road, all season. While Moyer's gone just 5-4 with a 4.83 ERA in 15 home starts (team is 8-7), but he's 9-3 with a 2.61 ERA in 15 road starts (team is 11-4). Atlanta will counter the ageless Moyer with a 22-year-old rookie, James Parr. I realize that in his two starts this year, Parr has pitched 12 scoreless innings but those games came against the 57-93 Nationals (own MLB's worst record) and the Rockies, who have dropped EIGHT of their last nine. The Braves are just 19-27 vs lefties this year and Moyer is "on a roll" plus expect Parr to find the Philly bats a much tougher assignment then he did Washington and Colorado's lineup. Pitching Mismatch of the Week 15* Phi Phillies.
Las Vegas Insider-MLB (52-32 with MLB Insiders since May 26)
My Las Vegas Insider is on the LA Angels at 10:05 ET. The Angels celebrated their recent 6-1 homestand by clinching the AL West title for the fourth time in five years and also saw closer Francisco Rodriguez notch his record-breaking 58th save (most-ever in a single season). However, as the Angels visit Oakland on Tuesday night to open a season high-tying 10-game road trip, they "still have work to do." LA owns a major league best 92-57 record but they still need to secure homefield advantage in the AL and to do that, the Angels must stay ahead of the 89-61 Red Sox and 88-60 Rays. The Angels will take a five-game winning streak into tonight's game and will have John Lackey on the hill. Lackey's been far from perfect in the second half of the year but he's followed a 19-9 (3.01 ERA) season in '07 by going 11-3 with a 3.25 ERA in 21 starts in '08 (team is 14-7). He got a late start to the '08 season due to a right triceps strain (first start wasn't until May 14) but he 'loves' pitching against the A's, going 14-3 (2.67 ERA) in his career against them. That includes an 8-1 mark with a 1.71 ERA in his last 10 vs the A's. The 69-80 A's can only counter with Sean Gallagher, who acquired him from the Cubs in the deal that sent Rich Harden to Chicago. His first start with the A's was against the Angels (7/11) and he was very good, going seven innings while allowing two hits and two ERs in a 9-2 win. However, over his next six starts for Oakland Gallagher was 'rocked,' allowing 40 hits and 23 ERs over 27.1 innings for a 7.57 ERA (he was 0-2 and the team was 0-6). He was placed on the DL August 21 with shoulder fatigue but was removed on September 10. He pitched four scoreless innings vs Detroit last Wednesday and while he didn't allow a hit, he also walked SIX batters. Let's also note that the Tigers are currently in a "free-fall!" I realize the Angels are just 5-9 their last 14 away games but they still own MLB's best road record (by far), at 43-28. It should also be noted that after some early struggles against right-handers in the early going of the year, the Angels head into this game with a 62-43 mark vs righties in '08 (were 75-47 vs righties LY!). As already mentioned, Lackey's been great vs the A's in his career (particularly recently) and this Oakland team ranks last in all of MLB in team BA (.241) and is among MLB's lowest scoring teams (3.96 RPG). Oakland is 44-55 vs righties this year, with its worst category being home night games (like this), where the A's are 12-22 while averaging just 3.5 RPG. What's NOT to like about the Angels in this one. Las Vegas Insider on the LA Angels.
Ethan Law
DETROIT TIGERS
Opposite Action Plays
COLORADO ROCKIES
Sunday Selections
CINCINNATI REDS
LT Profits
Angels / A's UNDER 7.5
Mike Lineback
L A. ANGELS
Alex Smart
CHICAGO WHITE SOX
Charlies
500* Astros/Marlins Under 7½
30* Braves EV
20* Cards -110
20* Brewers -105
10* Yankees -145
10* Royals -110
The Hitman Guaranteed Selections
5000 LARGE DIAMOND BASEBALL WINNER
Arizona w/Haren -165 9:40 EST
AJ Apollo
3* Atlanta Braves
3* Oakland A's
Teddy June
5* Chicago Cubs -105
An interesting 3 game series opens up here at Wrigley with CC Sabathia getting the start for the Brewers and Ryan Dempster for the Cubs. Brewers who have been in midst of a major late season collapse including getting swept in 4 games over the week have lost 7 of their last 8 and 12 of their last 15. In an unprecedented move they fired manager Ned Yost yesterday and 3B coach Dale Sveum will take over as the interim manager. According to ESPN this is the first time in MLB history except the 1981 strike season a manger has been fired in August or later with his team in playoff contention. Things dont look to be getting any better this week for them as the man who has normally been their stopper this season, Sabathia, will face off against a squad that has hammered him. While Sabathia has been able to smoke through some of the NL cupcakes the Cubs have hit him hard. In 9 career innings against the Cubs in two starts he has given up 17 hits, 12 ER, an ERA of 12.00, a whip of 2.33 and against BA of .378. It doesn?t help tonight that he faces them at Wrigley where the Cubs have absolutely smashed left-handed pitching. At home this season Chicago has hit .308 and scored 6.48 runs per game against left-handers. On the other side Ryan Dempster is starting and he has been having a great year at 15-6 with a 3.02 ERA. But more importantly for us he loves to pitch against the Brewers. In his career he is 7-2 with 10 saves and has a 2.45 ERA including .197 BAA. Combine that with his already strong home numbers this season posting a 2.90 ERA, 1.25 WHIP and .222 BAA against and he should be poised for a great outing tonight. He should also be helped tonight by a Brewers ball club that has been ice cold at the plate batting a mere .181 against right-handed pitching in their last 10 ball games including only scoring 2.54 runs per game. The wind is blowing out a bit tonight at Wrigley so we should see a few runs here. Brewers are going to need a miracle to make the playoffs at this point after the Phillies series and I just think they are coming into this really deflated. Cubs are the better club, playing better right now as they have won 4 straight, have the better the bullpen, are looking to seal their fate in the playoffs and are at a value price tonight.
5* SF Giants/Arizona Diamondbacks Over 7.5
The Diamondbacks continue to tailspin out of the playoffs as they have lost 8 of their last 10 ball games and now sit 4.5 games behind. The Giants meanwhile have been quietly playing pretty good baseball as they have won 8 of 10. Diamondbacks send Dan Haren to the hill tonight who has a number things going against him. For one he has gotten caught up in this weird scheduling situation where for about a month now he has faced the same 3 ball clubs. He faced SD twice in a row, then LA twice in a row and now SF twice in a row. To compound the issues Haren as I chronicled in August has been a terrible 2nd half pitcher in his career particularly the last two seasons. In August he had a 5.63 ERA including 1.59 WHIP and a BAA of .337. In September it has only gotten worse as he owns a 6.75 ERA, 2.38 WHIP and .324 BAA. This is nothing new for Haren as last season he owned an ERA in the high 4's in August and September and in his career owns a post all star break ERA 1 run higher in the 2nd half than first of the year. It wont help him today that the Giants bats have been red hot as of late against right-handers as they have hit .318 against them and averaged 6.75 runs per game. On the other side Matt Cain gets the start for the Giants and you?ll notice if you follow Cain closely he's either hot or cold and there's really no in-between with him. Lately he has been getting absolutely rocked as he owns a 9.00 ERA in his last 3 starts which has included him giving up 27 hits in only 15 innings and 7 walks during that as well. In his last two road starts he has given up 11 ER, 17 hits and only last 8.1 innings. The Diamondbacks have no question struggled at the plate recently but in their friendly confines at home their bats have been alive this year. Before going on the woeful road trip recently they were hot at home with their bats and I expect that to resume here again. It is noteworthy that the over is 8-3 the last 11 meetings between these two ball clubs.
Bob Balfe
Reds -125
The Gold Medal Club
24 Karat play - TB Rays
Anton Wins
3 units Florida +140
PowerPlayWins
Los Angeles Angels -132
Southcoast Sports
Los Angeles Angels -130
Now that the Angels have clinched the MLB's first playoff spot, they will not feel pressured to make things happen. Sometimes that is a good thing, as players get more relaxed and just play to have fun. However, the Athletics can't be happy that John Lackey will be facing them on Tuesday night. In 25 career starts against Oakland, Lackey is 14-3 while maintaining a low 2.67 Era. He has been even more impressive over his last 10 starts vs the Athletics, going 8-1 with a 1.71 Era. Oakland's Sean Gallagher will get the start opposite of Lackey. Gallagher pitched well in his first start back from the DL with shoulder fatigue, and he has won his only start vs the Angels. The Athletics are 1-6 in Gallaghers last 7 starts, and are 0-4 in his last 4 starts against teams with winning records. It's probably worth noting that Lackey is 7-2 with a 2.76 Era in his night starts, while Gallagher is 1-2 with a 7.52 Era in games he started at night. All the numbers point towards an Angels victory, and we are getting them at a decent price.
Take the Los Angeles Angels -130 for 3-Units.
Yankee Capper
3 Units - Phillies (-120)
3 Units - Yankees (-140)