Black Widow Sports
1* on San Francisco Giants -162
Tim Lincecum looks to put another brilliant start together tonight to try and earn a few more NL Cy Young votes this season. Lincecum has been nothing short of spectacular all year. Lincecum (17-4, 2.46) leads the NL in ERA (2.46) and strikeouts (243) and will look to capture a victory in his fifth straight home start. Colorado is 4-15 (-12.0 Units) against the money line in road games when playing against a bad team (Win Pct. 38% to 46%) this season. San Francisco is 50-24 (+22.5 Units) against the money line in home games off a one run win over a division rival since 1997. Take the Giants on the Money Line as tonight’s free play.
Doc's Sports
New York Yankees vs. Toronto Blue Jays
Play: New York Yankees
The Yanks are clinging to a small miracle of making the playoffs in 2008 and need too win six straight and have Boston lose six straight. They will do there part tonight behind Mike Mussina, a pitcher that still has a chance to win 20 games in 2008 if he can win his last two starts of the season. He is 24-12 in 43 career starts against Toronto and is 7-2 on the road in 2008 with a 3.53 E.R.A. Getting him at this low of odds is too good to pass up and expect him to dominate the Jays one again and put the pressure on Boston to win this evening.
Info Plays
3* on Houston Astros -113
At 8-6 this season, Wandy Rodriquez has posted a 3.73 ERA for the Astros this season. Houston is still battling to make the playoffs, so look for Rodriquez to get the job done at home tonight. We’ll Play Against - Road underdogs with a money line of +100 or higher (CINCINNATI) - poor hitting team (AVG <=.250) against a decent starting pitcher (ERA=3.70 to 4.20) -NL, cold hitting team - batting .240 or worse over their last 10 games. This is a 68-20 ML System hitting 77.3% since 1997. The Reds are really struggling at the plate to end the season. Bet Houston at home.
John Martin
1 Unit on Cleveland Indians -105
Cleveland’s Cliff Lee will earn his 23rd win of the season tonight for Cleveland. Lee is 22-2 with a stellar 2.41 ERA in 2008, putting together one of the most dominant season in recent memory for any starting pitcher. Tim Wakefield is really struggling to end the season for the Red Sox. Wakefield has gone 1-2 with a 9.75 ERA through his last three starts. Cleveland has reeled off 7 straight victories heading into play Tuesday. Lee is 12-1 when working on 5 or 6 days rest this season. Lee is 18-4 in night games this season. Cleveland is 8-1 in road games with an on base percentage of .360 or better over their last 15 games this season. We are getting Lee at a great value tonight against Boston. Cash in with Cleveland as the favorite.
LT Profits
Oakland Athletics +115
The Oakland Athletics stayed hot by winning the series opener vs. the Texas Rangers here last night, and we see no reason to stop backing them now as long as they keep being installed as underdogs.
The Athletics have now won four straight games and they are 8-1 in their last nine contests. They started to heat up right after the rosters expanded to 40 players on September 1, and this team appears to have a bright future as it is this youth movement that has fueled this sudden hot streak.
One of those youngsters is their starting pitcher tonight, Josh Outman, who has given a fine account or himself in two major league starts, allowing one and three runs respectively. He made his debut vs. these Rangers in Oakland, and he proceeded to allow one run and four hits in five innings. He also has the support of a fine Oakland bullpen that ranks second in the American League with a 3.34 ERA.
The Rangers are heading in the opposite direction, as that loss last night was their fifth straight and seventh in nine games. We are also not very high on there starter Dustin Nippert, who returned to his normal level last start when he allowed five earned runs on 4.1 innings after going three straight starts of uncharacteristically allowing three runs or less.
His 6.47 for the season is a true barometer of his ability (or lack thereof), and we look for him to struggle again vs. this hot Oakland team.
Pick: Athletics +115
Los Angeles Angels @ Seattle Mariners Under 8.5
The Los Angeles Angels defeated the Seattle Mariner 2-1 here last night, and we look for a similarly low scoring contest this evening.
Jered Weaver has a rough start to this season, but he ahs turned this around lately and now more closely resembles the pitcher that took the league b storm as a rookie a few years ago, He has now allowed three runs or less in six consecutive starts, including one start vs. these Mariners where he allowed just three hits in six scoreless innings.
Now we concede that Ryan Feierabend has been generally brutal for Seattle, but believe it or not, he has pitched well in his only three home starts. He has a 2.84 ERA with a very respectable 1.22 WHIP in 19 home innings, with the Mariners going 2-1 as a team in those contests.
Finally, do not forget the cold weather in the Pacific Northwest right now. The chilly climate was certainly a factor last night and we expect the cold to cause some more havoc tonight.
Pick: Angels/Mariners Under 8.5
Larry Ness
Arizona Diamondbacks @ St. Louis Cardinals
PICK: Arizona Diamondbacks
The D'backs have started winning again but is it too late? Arizona had lost 11 straight road games before winning Saturday and Sunday at Colorado and the D'backs made it three straight road wins last night, by edging the Cards 4-2. Arizona has now won SEVEN of eight overall and after three more games here in St Louis, will close the season with three home games against the Rockies. However, Arizona is two games behind the Dodgers heading into tonight's play and those Dodgers have won 16 of their last 21. LA also gets a HUGE break in the schedule, as they open a three-game home series tonight with the Padres, who are 61-95 overall, including 27-51 on the road. Winning may not be enough for Arizona, as the D'backs will likely need some unexpected help from San Diego (fat chance) or the Giants, who host the Dodgers this weekend. Anyway, all Arizona can do is win its games and I like the team's chances tonight. The Cards have lost 10 of their last 12 games and shouldn't offer much resistance here. I admit Kyle Lohse (14-6, 3.76 ERA) will be focused, as he tries set a career high for wins. He had gone seven starts without a victory (0-3 with a 4.01 ERA) but allowed two ERs runs in 6.2 innings of a 5-4 win at Cincinnati on Thursday in last outing. It marked his first win since August 1 and the trouble has been that he just hasn't gotten much support. I expect that to be his downfall again tonight, as Arizona counters with Randy Johnson (10-9, 3.99 ERA). Johnson, like Lohse, has had trouble getting run support, as despite allowing one ER in THREE of his last five starts (with 37 Ks in 30.2 innings), he's gone winless. However, while the Cards are just "playing out the string" (and not doing it very well, I might add), the D'backs have all the motivation they need. Look for the Big Unit to give Arizona another good effort and for the D'backs to keep the pressure on the Dodgers with a win. Take Arizona.
SportsKingz
FLORIDA -130
Dave Price
1 Unit on L.A. Dodgers -1.5
We'll take the Dodgers on the run line to avoid laying astronomical juice as I like L.A. to win comfortably at home. The Padres have lost 5 of the last 6 meetings in this series and are a poor 1-6 in their last 7 following an off day. The Dodgers are 22-8 in their last 30 home games, 16-5 in their last 21 overall, and 13-4 in their last 17 vs. the National League West. They are also 5-0 in their last 5 games following a loss. We'll ride one of the hottest home stretch teams to an easy winner here.
Wunderdog
Los Angeles Angels at Seattle
Pick: Los Angeles Angels -137
The oddsmakers have acted like these are meaningless games for the Angels since clinching the AL West. They are severely under-valued right now, as they attempt to secure home-field advantage throughout the playoffs. If they are resting players, then why were Guerrero, Texiera, and Hunter in the lineup last night? They have won eight of their last 10, which says something by itself. The Mariners are the team that is packing suitcases, and mentally out of the game. They have dropped 12 straight and the only thing on their mind is playing that last game Sunday and then go home. I'll take the value here and ride with the Angels at a bargain price.
Tony Weston
Well, we nailed Chicago last night and we're nailing another winner tonight as we're taking the Royals on the road at the Detroit Tigers.Because Kansas City has had nothing to play for and has been irrelevant since May, the team has gone under the radar recently, but the Royals have been quite the money maker lately.Kansas City comes into tonight's game 9-2 its last 11 games, including last night's 6-2 beat down of the Tigers. Also, after a stretch where they went 4-19 from Aug. 5 to Aug. 31, the Royals have gone 14-7 since.On the flip side, after such high hopes entering this season, the Tigers have continued their disappointment and have been brutal over the last month.Since Aug. 24 the Tigers are 7-19 their last 26 games and are 1-10 their last 11 games.Kansas City will continue to remain on fire and hand Detroit yet another loss. Take the Royals on the road tonight.
3♦ ROYALS
Big Al
Royals at Tigers
Play: Royals
What Zack Greinke has accomplished this season as part of the starting rotation on one of the worst teams in baseball is nothing short of amazing. The talented 24-year-old right-handed member of the Royals staff has a winning record (12-10) going into this start, and he has some of the most impressive individual numbers of any starter in the AL. Greinke not only has very good power numbers (179 Ks in 195 innings), but he also has great control (only 54 walks). Greinke makes about $1.5 million in annual salary, but he could definitely parlay his numbers into a much bigger contract at some point soon, although probably not with the Royals. Thirty-two-year-old veteran right-hander Freddy Garcia turned his first start since 2007 into a good one, when he threw five effective innings for Detroit against Texas last Wednesday, which was hard to imagine given his numbers in recent seasons when he was supposedly healthy. It would have also been hard to imagine at the beginning of this season that the Royals could end up with more wins at the end of 2008 than the Tigers. But that is exactly the situation these two teams find themselves in with less than a week to go. Detroit has been much better this year vs. lefties than righties, so we'll take the Royals behind Greinke tonight.
Lenny Del Genio
Cleveland Indians at Boston Red Sox
Prediction: Cleveland Indians
Are we missing something here? Why is Cliff Lee such a short favorite We understand that he's throwing against a Boston team looking to wrap up the Wild Card berth, but that didn't stop the Red Sox from losing 4-3 to the Tribe last night behind Josh Beckett. Cleveland has won 24 of Lee's 30 starts, which is an 80% ROI. Even more impressive is Lee's 12-1 TSR when working on 5 or 6 days rest this season. Lee hasn't pitched since 9/17, an Indians win, so we're set up perfectly here. Boston is just 8-17 this season when seeking revenge for a one run loss. Take Cleveland.
Nick Parsons
Atlanta Braves at Philadelphia Phillies
Prediction: Philadelphia Phillies -1.5
Just like last September, the Phillies have gone on amazing late season surge and, just like last season, the NL East title could be theirs again! A combination of stellar play from the Phillies and poor play from the Mets has the Phils in the driver's seat for the NL East division. Tuesday, the money line is very steep on the Phillies so, of course, we would not advise laying that kind of money on any play, no matter how strong the situation may seem. However, there is indeed some solid line value with the Phillies on the run line here. By just asking them to win this game by at least two runs we cut our lay price here more than in half here as you could lay as little as 135 on this depending on where and when you play. The Phillies are 10-1 in their last 11 games and 7 of those wins have come by at least two runs. In fact, their average margin of victory during this stretch is a rock solid margin of 3.1 runs per win! They will stay hot here against a struggling Jo Jo Reyes of the Braves. By the way, Atlanta's last nine losses have included six by multiple runs. Overall, their last nine losses have come by an average margin of 3.1 runs per defeat! Facing Cole Hamels won't help matters for the Braves as the young southpaw has quickly become one of the best left-handers in the game! This one has blowout written all over it and the Phillies are available at a very fair price here when taking them on the run line. Lay the 1.5 runs with Philadelphia!
John Ryan
Cleveland Indians at Boston Red Sox
Prediction: Boston Red Sox
Ai Simulator 3* graded play on Boston ? Supporting this graded play is a system that has gone 132-78 making 52.7 units since 1997. Play against all teams when the money line is +125 to -125 with a hot starting pitcher sporting an ERA less than 2.50 over his last 5 starts and is now facing an opponent with a cold starting pitcher posting an ERA >= 7.00 over his last 3 starts. Here is a second system that has gone 86-86 making 50.5 units since 1997. The average play has been a dog of +158.7. Play on all dogs with a money line of +100 or higher with a starting pitcher whose gives up 5.5 or less hits/start and is now facing an opponent with a starting pitcher whose winning percentage is better than 80%. Again, as I have said so many times in the past, systems like this one truly reflect a strong way to make money in money line sports. This is analogous to playing Black Jack and being paid 1.58 for every winning 1.00 hand. That would be great wouldn't it? But, it is reality with this system so do yourself a favor and right it down and use it with any qualifying games. This is a great matchup too with 22 game winner Lee starting for Cleveland and one of the best and most scrappy types of offenses in the majors. A Red Sox win clinches the wild card and it would be a great win defeating Cliff Lee. Take the Red Sox.
Stephen Nover
Cleveland Indians @ Boston Red Sox
PICK: Cleveland Indians
The opportunity to back Cliff Lee at this price puts me on Cleveland. Lee is going for a Cy Young Award with a 22-2 record and 2.41 ERA.
Lee is 11-0 with a 2.40 ERA during his last 13 starts. Both the Indians and Lee have great motivation. The Indians want to finish above .500. They have won their past seven games.
Lee is trying to set a team record for left-handers by winning his 23rd game. He'll be pitching to a Boston club that isn't scoring many runs lately.
Boston is averaging 2.8 runs in its last six games, dropping four of those six.
Red Sox starter Tim Wakefield is either outstanding or terrible. Lately he's been more off than on allowing 13 earned runs in his last three starts spanning 12 innings.
The knuckleballer has a 4.50 ERA in 19 career starts versus Cleveland.
The Red Sox are very tough at Fenway Park. But a chance to back Lee at this price with Cleveland playing well makes this a one-unit play for me.