Dave Malinsky
Braves (RL) @ Phillies (RL)
PICK:4* Phillies (RL)
Last week we were all set to turn the Phillies and Cole Hamels as a 6* Run Line over Atlanta with Jo-Jo Reyes on the hill. A pitching change turned that into a scratch, but note that we saw exactly what we wanted to from Hamels, in a game that was much more dominating than the bottom line would show. While he got the win, allowing two runs over six innings, the real story comes from the secondary numbers. He only walked two of the 26 batters that he faced, and of the 18 outs recorded the distribution is what we call “clean” – 13 ground-balls and five strikeouts, with nary a fly out. That rarely happens, but it shows how easily he can control a lineup that has struggled vs. left-handers all season. We believe that he can do it again, which builds up plenty of early innings for the Phillies to break the game open, and a rested Brad Lidge is ready to make the last outs easy as well.
This time the Phillies do get to see Reyes, and that should get them to the ballpark early for batting practice. It also means that it may be difficult to tell when BP ended and the game began. Reyes just does not bring Major League stuff to the mound, with a combined 5-13/5.89 through his first two seasons, and in terms of this matchup and current form it is even worse. A case can be made that since the 4th of July there has not been a worse starter in the sport, at an 0-5/8.48 over 40.1 innings (just 4.1 frames per start!). The Braves have gone 0-9 in his starts in that span, 1-8 as +1.5, getting out-scored by a combined 38 runs. And behind Reyes is an overworked bullpen that can only add gasoline to any fires that he has lit.
For all that is involved in this one the marketplace is enabling us to play a blowout in a short range, and we will do just that.
Matt Foust
Chicago White Sox +122
The White Sox and Twins appropriately face each other tonight in the first game of a three game set in Minnesota. The White Sox are 2.5 games up on the surprising Twins, and I am going to go with them making it a 3.5 game lead tonight.
Chicago is sending Javier Vazquez to the mound tonight and notoriously loud mouthed manager, Ozzie Gullien, has already issued a challenge to his right hander. Vazquez is having a decent year (4.32 ERA, 12-14 record, 1.30 WHIP) but he has been somewhat inconsistent. Recently, he could best be described as slightly above serviceable, giving up 14 earned runs, striking out 27, and walking nine in 29.6 innings pitched (last five away starts). In his last four starts at Minnesota he has yielded 11 earned runs, struck out 28, and walked five.
Minnesota starter Scott Baker is having a great year and has been an integral part of the Twins surprising success this season. On the year he has a 3.69 ERA, 9-4 record, and 1.21 WHIP. However, he has not been lights out at home lately, allowing 15 earned runs in a little over 30 innings work and the Twins are 3-2 in that stretch. He has also struggled against the White Sox, giving up 29 earned runs in 32.6 innings pitched. This season he has 5.73 ERA facing Chicago (seven earned runs in 11 innings pitched) and he has given up four home runs in those eleven innings.
Much of Chicago’s success hinges on the long ball. When they are hitting ball out of the park they are almost impossible to beat. I look for them to get after Baker a little bit tonight and post enough runs to get a win. Also, I believe Vazquez will respond to Gullien’s challenge. Earlier this year the team went on a torrid stretch after Gullien criticized them and I think Vazquez will pitch with some fire tonight. Javier’s ability to get strikeouts will be key and I believe he will have the Twins befuddled most of the evening.
Take the White Sox +122
Chris James Sports
Florida Marlins at Washington Nationals
Play: Florida Marlins -124
It looks like Florida has completely taken themselves out of the wild card race after losing the last two games to the Phillies over the weekend and blowing a lead last night against the Reds. Tonight they open up a series with the Washington Nationals who never had any hopes of Playoff Play and absolutely should be playing in AAA. There isn't much to this game tonight other than the fact that the Marlins are a much better team than the Nationals overall, and Olsen owns the Nationals when he is on the mound. The Marlins are 9-2 in their last 11 vs. a right handed starter and are 9-3 in their last 12 overall. The Marlins suprised some people this year as they played winning ball all year, just not enough to take it to the next step. They have had the offense to be a contender but their downfall has been their pitching all year. Tonight they send Scott Olsen to the mound who is 8-10 on the year with a 4.2 ERA. Againts the Nationals though, Olsen is 3-0 with a 3.04 ERA. His last 3 starts he has an ERA of 2.84 which shows signs that he is pitching in good from his last couple of starts. The Marlins have won the last 4 games that Olsen has started vs. the Nationals as well as winning the last 6 in Washington. If that wasn't enough the Marlins have won 15 of the last 17 meetings overall. Look for the Marlins to win this game as they look to have a strong showing these last few games to make sure they finish above .500. Take the Marlins.