SPORTS ADVISORS
NATIONAL LEAGUE
Cincinnati (27-23) at St. Louis (29-22)
These N.L. Central rivals continue their four-game series at Busch Stadium, with Cardinals right-hander Brad Thompson (0-1, 4.30 ERA) set to make his first start of the season against the Reds’ Bronson Arroyo (7-3, 5.12).
Cincinnati lost starting pitcher Edinson Volquez to injury after just one inning Monday, but rallied from a 2-0 deficit to win 5-3 and halt a three-game slide overall and a six-game road losing skid. Despite last night’s win, the Reds are still just 4-7 in their last 11 against right-handed starters, but they’re 7-3 in their last 10 Tuesday outings.
St. Louis has followed up a 9-2 run by dropping consecutive games. Still, the Redbirds are on surges of 23-10 at Busch Stadium (6-2 last eight), 5-2 against N.L. Central foes, 7-2 against teams with a winning record and 4-0 in Game 2 of a series.
The Reds have now taken three of four meetings against the Cards this season, but the host has won eight of the last 11 clashes dating to last summer. Additionally, Cincinnati is still just 16-36 in its last 52 games in St. Louis.
Arroyo was sensational in Wednesday’s 6-1 home win over Houston, pitching a complete-game five-hitter, and he needed just 92 pitches to finish the job. He’s 2-1 with a 1.88 ERA in his last three starts, allowing just five runs in 24 innings after surrendering 14 runs in his previous two starts covering only eight innings.
Cincy is 7-3 in Arroyo’s last 10 starts overall and 8-3 in his last 11 on Tuesday, and the veteran right-hander is 4-1 with a 3.06 ERA in five starts on the highway (as opposed to 3-2 with a 7.58 ERA at home). However, Arroyo is just 5-6 with a 4.40 ERA in 19 career games (17 starts) against the Cardinals, with the Reds losing four of his last five starts in St. Louis.
Thompson’s season has been limited to nine relief appearances covering 14 2/3 innings, and he’s given up six runs on 10 hits in 10 innings at home (5.40 ERA). Last year at Busch, he went 3-2 with a 4.50 ERA in 13 games (three starts). St. Louis won six of Thompson’s last eight starts overall in 2008, it is 9-2 in his last 11 at home and 8-1 in his last nine against N.L. Central rivals. Finally, the right-hander is 3-0 with a 3.70 ERA in 19 career games (four starts) against Cincinnati.
The under is 5-1 in Thompson’s last six starts overall, 4-0-1 in his last five on Tuesday, 4-1 in Arroyo’s last five road outings, 5-1-1 in his last seven on Tuesday and 6-1-1 in his last eight starts versus the Cardinals.
St. Louis carries “under” streaks of 10-3 overall, 7-0 at home, 6-1 versus divisional rivals and 7-1 against right-handed starters. Meanwhile, the under is 15-6-1 in the Reds’ last 22 road games and 11-3-3 in their last 17 on Tuesday. Finally, last night’s game barely stayed under the total, ending a seven-game “over” streak in this rivalry.
ATS ADVANTAGE: ST. LOUIS and UNDER
AMERICAN LEAGUE
Boston (29-22) at Detroit (28-21)
The surging Tigers return to Comerica Park following a winning road trip and open a three-game series against the Red Sox with Rick Porcelllo (6-3, 3.48) set to oppose winless Boston right-hander Daisuke Matsuzaka (0-3, 8.82).
Detroit finished a 4-3 road trip with consecutive wins over the Orioles over the weekend, prevailing 6-3 on Saturday and 3-0 on Sunday. The Tigers are 11-5 in their last 16 contests and they’ve won 10 of their last 13 at Comerica Park, though they’ve struggled offensively, scoring four runs or fewer in eight of their last 11 games. Detroit is 13-3 in its last 16 contests when favored and it has won five straight against clubs with a winning record, but Jim Leyland’s team has lost 10 of its last 12 on Tuesday and five of its last six after an off day.
Boston, which also was idle Monday, is coming off Sunday’s 8-2 rout of the Blue Jays in Toronto, but remains just 4-6 in its last 10 overall, including 3-4 on a current 10-game road trip. The Red Sox have also dropped four of their last five as an underdog. On the bright side, Terry Francona’s squad remains on streaks of 14-6 against winning teams, 48-18 after a day off, 47-20 against the A.L. Central, 22-9 in series openers and 23-11 on Tuesday.
The Red Sox went 3-2 against the Detroit last year, taking three of four meetings at Comerica Park. Still, the home team 9-5 in the last 14 head-to-head clashes.
Matsuzaka’s miserable 2009 season continued Wednesday at Minnesota as he allowed three runs on nine hits and three walks in five innings, losing 4-2 in his second start back after missing five weeks with an arm injury. The right-hander hasn’t had a quality start in four trips to the mound this season, going 0-1 with a 12.00 ERA in two road outings., Despite Matsuzaka’s struggles this season, the Red Sox are still 31-11 in his last 42 starts overall, 8-2 in his last 10 road starts, 8-1 in his last nine against the A.L. Central.
Dice-K is 3-1 with a 2.81 ERA in four career starts against the Tigers, including 2-0 with a 0.77 ERA in two contests last season (5-0 home win, 6-3 victory in Detroit).
Porcello was outstanding in five starts in May, going 5-0 with a 1.50 ERA, including 3-0 with a 0.95 ERA at home. He walked six and struck out 20, and of the 13 home runs allowed last month, six came on home runs. The rookie right-hander is 3-1 with a 3.18 ERA in four starts at Comerica Park, and tonight marks his first career appearance against the Red Sox.
The under is on a 10-4-2 roll in this rivalry. Additionally, Boston carries “under” streaks of 5-1 overall (all on the road), 5-1 as an underdog, 4-0 when facing right-handed starters, 9-3-1 when playing on grass and 4-0 when Matsuzaka faces A.L. Central foes. Finally, the “under” for the Tigers is on runs of 10-3 overall, 6-0 at home, 10-1 on Tuesday, 9-3 against righty starters and 7-3 versus the A.L. East.
ATS ADVANTAGE: UNDER
DUNKEL
Cleveland at Minnesota
The Twins look to build on their 7-0 record in Kevin Slowey's last 7 home starts when the total is set between 9 and 10 1/2 runs. Minnesota is the pick (-155) according to Dunkel, which has the Twins favored by 1 1/2. Dunkel Pick: Minnesota (-155).
Game 951-952: NY Mets at Pittsburgh
Dunkel Ratings: NY Mets (Santana) 14.846; Pittsburgh (Duke) 14.098
Dunkel Line: NY Mets by 1; 8 1/2
Vegas Line: NY Mets (-185); 7 1/2
Dunkel Pick: NY Mets (-185); Over
Game 953-954: San Francisco at Washington
Dunkel Ratings: San Francisco (Lincecum) 14.342; Washington (Stammen) 14.472
Dunkel Line: Washington by 1/2; 7 1/2
Vegas Line: San Francisco (-145); 8
Dunkel Pick: Washington (+135); Under
Game 955-956: Chicago Cubs at Atlanta
Dunkel Ratings: Cubs (Wells) 14.813; Atlanta (Kawakami) 15.891
Dunkel Line: Atlanta by 1; 7 1/2
Vegas Line: Atlanta (-125); 9
Dunkel Pick: Atlanta (-125); Under
Game 957-958: Milwaukee at Florida
Dunkel Ratings: Milwaukee (Parra) 16.390; Florida (Sanchez) 15.257
Dunkel Line: Milwaukee by 1; 10 1/2
Vegas Line: No Line
Dunkel Pick: N/A
Game 959-960: Colorado at Houston
Dunkel Ratings: Colorado (Jimenez) 14.175; Houston (Paulino) 15.514
Dunkel Line: Houston by 1 1/2; 7 1/2
Vegas Line: Colorado (-130); 9
Dunkel Pick: Houston (+120); Under
Game 961-962: Cincinnati at St. Louis
Dunkel Ratings: Cincinnati (Arroyo) 15.253; St. Louis (Thompson) 16.486
Dunkel Line: St. Louis by 1; 8 1/2
Vegas Line: No Line
Dunkel Pick: N/A
Game 963-964: Philadelphia at San Diego
Dunkel Ratings: Philadelphia (Bastardo) 14.588; San Diego (Peavy) 16.148
Dunkel Line: San Diego by 1 1/2; 6 1/2
Vegas Line: San Diego (-200); 7
Dunkel Pick: San Diego (-200); Under
Game 965-966: Arizona at LA Dodgers
Dunkel Ratings: Arizona (Haren) 15.240; LA Dodgers (Wolf) 14.695
Dunkel Line: Arizona by 1/2; 8 1/2
Vegas Line: LA Dodgers (-125); 8
Dunkel Pick: Arizona (+115); Over
Game 967-968: Boston at Detroit
Dunkel Ratings: Boston (Matsuzaka) 16.719; Detroit (Porcello) 15.642
Dunkel Line: Boston by 1; 10
Vegas Line: Detroit (-135); 9 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Boston (+125); Over
Game 969-970: Texas at NY Yankees
Dunkel Ratings: Texas (Padilla) 16.943; NY Yankees (Burnett) 16.634
Dunkel Line: Texas by 1/2; 11 1/2
Vegas Line: NY Yankees (-175); 10 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Texas (+165); Over
Game 971-972: LA Angels at Toronto
Dunkel Ratings: LA Angels (Saunders) 14.144; Toronto (Halladay) 14.907
Dunkel Line: Toronto by 1; 7 1/2
Vegas Line: Toronto (-170); 8
Dunkel Pick: Toronto (-170); Under
Game 973-974: Kansas City at Tampa Bay
Dunkel Ratings: Kansas City (Davies) 14.477; Tampa Bay (Sonnastine) 14.597
Dunkel Line: Tampa Bay by 1/2; 11
Vegas Line: Tampa Bay (-150); 10
Dunkel Pick: Tampa Bay (-150); Over
Game 975-976: Cleveland at Minnesota
Dunkel Ratings: Cleveland (Huff) 14.950; Minnesota (Slowey) 16.660
Dunkel Line: Minnesota by 1 1/2; 8 1/2
Vegas Line: Minnesota (-155); 9 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Minnesota (-155); Under
Game 977-978: Oakland at Chicago White Sox
Dunkel Ratings: Oakland (Mazzaro) 15.355; White Sox (Colon) 15.069
Dunkel Line: Oakland by 1/2; 9 1/2
Vegas Line: No Line
Dunkel Pick: N/A
Game 979-980: Baltimore at Seattle
Dunkel Ratings: Baltimore (Hernandez) 15.035; Seattle (Bedard) 16.139
Dunkel Line: Seattle by 1; 9
Vegas Line: Seattle (-155); 8
Dunkel Pick: Seattle (-155); Over
NHL
Detroit at Pittsburgh
The Penguins look to get back into the series and take advantage of Detroit's 0-4 record in its last 4 games as a road underdog. Pittsburgh is the pick (-150) according to Dunkel, which has the Penguins favored by 1/2 a goal. Dunkel Pick: Pittsburgh (-150).
Game 5-6: Detroit at Pittsburgh
Dunkel Ratings: Detroit 13.793; Pittsburgh 14.320
Dunkel Line & Total: Pittsburgh by 1/2; 6 1/2
Vegas Line & Total: Pittsburgh (-150); 5 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Pittsburgh (-150); Over
Big Al McMordie
LAA Angels vs. Toronto Blue Jays
Play: Toronto Blue Jays
At 7:05pm our complimentary selection is on the Toronto Blue Jays over the Los Angeles Angels. For most of the first two months of the season, the Toronto bullpen has been pretty reliable in securing wins for Jays ace Roy Halladay as evidenced by his eight wins in his first nine starts, only one of which was a complete game. But such was not the case in Halladay's last start when he left with what seemed to be a safe five-run lead only to have his relievers blow it. That game was at Baltimore and part of an Oriole sweep of Toronto and you can expect that, if Halladay can take a lead in this game at home against the Angels, things will be different. It won't be easy as Joe Saunders has himself been pitching pretty well lately, but other than a nine-run outburst on Sunday, Los Angeles hasn't exactly been lighting up the scoreboard. In four career starts against the Jays, Saunders is 1-2 with a 3.62 ERA, and although those numbers aren't too bad, the lefthander usually hasn't had to face one of the best starters in the game. Tonight he does, however. and he has to face him in a place that has been very tough for visiting teams this season as Toronto is 18-7 at home, which is the best home record in the American League. The Angels are 4-9 in their last 13 games in Toronto. Take the Blue Jays.
Cajun Sports
Texas Rangers vs. New York Yankees
Play: Texas Rangers
The New York Yankees return home after an extended road trip they played last night in Cleveland and face the Texas Rangers tonight at Yankee Stadium. This is important because we know that the Yankees are 1-6 W/L their last 7 at home returning from an extended road trip of seven or more games. The Yankees will send right-hander AJ Burnett to the bump with his 3-2 W/L record and ERA of 4.78. He is 0-1 W/L at home in five starts with an ERA of 4.78 he has given up 18 walks and 6 homeruns over that span. Burnett is coming off a win versus the Rangers in Texas back on May 27th as the Yankees won 9 to 2. The Rangers will send Vicente Padilla to the hill with a 3-2 W/L record and ERA of 4.71 on the season. Padilla has made three starts on the highway this year and the Rangers have won all three with him going 1-0 W/L with an ERA of 2.08. Over the three starts Padilla has averaged 7.2 innings per game allowing only nine hits in those three trips to the bump. Padilla’s last three starts have seen him go 2-0 W/L with an ERA of only 1.57 and a WHIP of 0.957 with Texas winning all three games. The Rangers have been solid when facing right-handed starters at night on the road going 7-2 W/L their last 9 for +725. Texas is 13-5 W/L their last 18 versus right-handed starters, 20-8 W/L overall, 19-7 W/L their last 26 when Padilla starts on the road and 10-1 W/L their last 11 when Padilla starts versus a team with a winning record. Our TPR (Team Performance Ratings) Index gives a slight edge to the Yankees but not nearly enough to lay more than 140 with Burnett on the hill. The Math Model and Pitcher Efficiency Index both favor Texas tonight by 0.98 runs and 1.1 runs respectively. We will back the visitor here as the Rangers cash a big ticket on Tuesday night in the Bronx.
Graded Selection: 2* Texas Rangers 6 New York Yankees 5
Marc Lawrence
Play On: San Francisco w/Lincecum
Last year's Cy Young winner, Tim Lincecum, takes the hill in the nation's capitol when the Giants meet the Nationals in Game One of their three games series Tuesday evening. Lincecum enters tonight contest in great KW form with 5 walks and 37 strikeouts in his last four road starts. He is also 2-0 with a 1.28 ERA in his career team starts against the Nats. With that look for Frisco to improve to 10-1 in its last eleven games in this series here tonight.
Jimmy The Moose
Kansas City Royals at Tampa Bay Rays
Prediction: Tampa Bay Rays
The Royals are 5-16 in their last 21 games overall. KC has lost 7 of their last 8 road games. In their last 16 games following an offday the Royals are 5-11. The Royals have lost Davies last 4 starts. The Rays are 6-0 in their last 6 home games as a favorite between -110-150. In theor last 10 home games vs. a team with a losing record the Rays are 7-3. KC is 7-19 in their last 26 trips to Tampa. The Rays are 17-8 in the last 25 meetings. Play on the Tampa Bay Rays -.
MTi Sports
Cleveland Indians at Minnesota Twins
Prediction: Cleveland Indians
The Twins are 0-8 as a 140+ favorite after a win in which they were tied at the end of 6 innings. Also, Minnesota is 0-8 in the first game of a series when they are off a one-run win. The Indians are 17-3 in their first game of a series when they are off a loss -- including 7-0 if that loss was at home. Consider grabbing this significant price.
Carlo Campanella
Philadelphia Phillies vs. San Diego Padres
San Diego starts Peavy on the mound as they host Philadelphia on Tuesday. The Phillies have gone "Under" the Total in 8 of their last 9 games, and now face Peavy, who has owns a 4-15 (Over/Under) record as a home Favorite between -125 to -175. With Philadelphia starting left handed pitcher, Antonio Bastardo, we'll seal the "Under" as the Padres own an 7-11 (Over/Under) record against southpaws this season.
7* Play On UNDER
Sports Gambling Hotline
San Francisco -140 at WASHINGTON
We know the Giants are only 7-15 away from home this season, but when you have the reining Cy Young award winner on the mound pitching against a team that has lost their last 6 games, we think you have a fine chance at grabbing the road win.
Also consider the Nats home mark is nothing to write home about, as they are just 7-16 in their own ball park.
Throw in the fact Washington will give the ball to Craig Stammen who is making just his 3rd start at this level, and has allowed 7 runs in his first 11 big league innings for an 0-1 mark.
Tim Lincecum is 2-1 this season in his 5 road starts, and his ERA is a skimpy 2.97. We don't see the Nats bats getting much going against Lincecum tonight.
San Francisco has taken 2 of the first 3 series meetings this year, and they did go 4-0 last year in D.C.
Play on the Giants.
3♦ SAN FRANCISCO
Michael Cannon
Colorado -135 at HOUSTON
A winner on the White Sox last night improves my free play run to 27-16-1 with my last 44 overall releases!
Take the Rockies for the road win over the Astros.
Colorado will start Ubaldo Jimenez, who’s had good success against Houston in his career. The right-hander is 2-0 with a 3.38 ERA in three career outings against the Astros. Jimenez hasn’t received much run support this year, but that shouldn’t be a problem tonight against Houston’s Felipe Paulino.
Paulino is 1-4 with a 6.75 ERA on the year. The right-hander is 0-2 with an 8.80 ERA in his last three starts. He was tagged for seven runs and seven hits in four innings in his previous start against the Rockies this year, a 12-1 loss on May 12.
Take the Rockies as they grab the road win.
3♦ COLORADO
Karl Garrett
Colorado at HOUSTON
Now 10-4 the last 2 weeks with my FREE plays!
National League total tonight, as I am looking for another UNDER between Colorado and Houston.
Last night, these teams combined for just 5 runs, as Colorado is now on a 7-3 UNDER run their last 10 games, while Houston is currently on 7-3-1 LOW run their last 11 games.
4 of Ubaldo Jimenez' 6 road starts have stayed UNDER, while both of Felipe Paulino's home starts, and 4 of his 5 starts overall have stayed LOW.
Have to side with those trends that I just listed, and play the UNDER in the Rockies-Astros game.
1♦ UNDER
Chris Jordan
Philadelphia -165 at SAN DIEGO
Meet Antonio Bastardo, a southpaw hurler who is making his Major League-debut tonight at pitcher-friendly PETCO Park. He takes Brett Myers’ spot in the rotation, and rolls in after stints at Double-A Reading and Triple-A Lehigh Valley. We’ll get to his arsenal in a moment, but sink your teeth into this fact: the 23-year-old’s strikeout-to-walk ratio is slightly better than 5-to-1, as he’s fanned 51 and walked just 10.
Bastardo, who is 3-2 with a 1.89 ERA in 11 games with the aforementioned teams, gives up more fly balls than grounders, maybe because he’s a hard-throwing lefty who comes down the pipe and isn’t afraid to challenge batters. His comparison, well, they say he’s much like Johan Santana and he dons a Phillie uniform thanks to the most hype the organization has bestowed upon a youngster since Cole Hamels arrived.
He has a skinny, somewhat lanky frame, and is a straight-away fastball-to-changeup type of pitcher who can keep his heater up in the low 90s. His deceptive delivery makes the fastball look even faster, and his arm speed makes the changeup that much more effective. It’s his out pitch, as he depends on it to tally those K’s. He also has a slider, it’s limited, and can utilize a breaking ball mid-count.
And how bout this for intriguing numbers for Philadelphia starters making their Major League-debut after trudging their way through the system. Going back to 1998 and this is just starters, the most-hyped guys are 7-3 with a 4.50 ERA, and there are two no-decisions (Cole Hamels and Kyle Kendrick).
The numbers are somewhat average, when looking at the big picture, but this kid is getting to face a somewhat mediocre lineup in a pitcher’s ballpark.
1♦ PHILLIES
Bobby Maxwell
Arizona at L.A. DODGERS -115
We're 3-1 with our last four FREE selections and we'll improve on that today when we go with the Dodgers at home to take care of the Diamondbacks.
Second game back off a road trip is always much easier to deal with than the first one, so we'll go ahead and lay the small chalk and play the Dodgers in this one. Los Angeles' offense looked tired on Monday night after playing a Sunday night game in Chicago and then flying home to play Arizona on Monday.
The Dodgers couldn't do anything against the D'Backs until the ninth inning in Monday's 3-2 loss. But a full night and day to recover now and we like the Dodgers behind lefty Randy Wolf (3-1, 2.84 ERA) tonight. Wolf already faced the D'Backs once this season and shut them down, allowing one run on two hits in seven innings of a 3-1 win.
Wolf pitched in Chicago on Thursday and allowed just one run on six hits in seven innings of a 2-1 victory. He's allowed two runs or less in six of his last seven starts and the Dodgers have won five of his last six outings.
Dan Haren (4-4, 2.54 ERA) is on the hill for Arizona and he has had his trouble with the Dodgers the last few seasons. He faced them five times last year and the Dodgers pounded him in three of those, getting five runs each time. The D'Backs have dropped each of his last three against Los Angeles, including an April 12 matchup this year when he allowed two runs in six innings but lost 3-1.
Los Angeles is on runs of 38-14 at home, 39-16 as a favorite and they will have the bats working tonight. This is an easy call with the Dodgers!
2♦ L.A. DODGERS
Red Dog Sports
New York Mets at Pittsburgh
Play: Under 7.5
Johan Santana has an ERA of 1.77 in his last 3 while Zach Duke's ERA is 2.75. These two have combined for 7 overs and 13 unders this year. The Pirates have 9 unders and 3 overs in their last 12 and the Mets have 9 unders, 4 overs and a push in their last 14. Look for the under to profit on Tuesday night!
BRAD DIAMOND SPORTS
Play: Baltimore over Seattle
Had a chance last week to catch the Orioles youngster Hernandez against the Tigers. The hurler was impressive overall considering he threw into the sixth inning. Whereas, former Oriole lefty Erik Bedard looks to take down his old team, but I doubt that's in the cards. Seattle is 3-7 with Bedard after a quality start in his last outing. Plus the Mariners are 1-9 in game #2 of a series. Finally, Baltimore is 8-2 in the last ten encounters with Seattle.