Freddy Wills
San Francisco Giants vs. Washington Nationals
Play: San Francisco Giants
The Nationals are 7-16 at home this year! Pretty awful if you ask me. Lincecum is starting to get hot and has two career starts vs. the NATS going 7 innings in both and giving up just 1 ER.This season he has a lower ERA on the road with 2.97 and a lower ERA at night with 2.50 ERA. The Nats aren't hitting period, but they are worse vs. RHP .239 and 1.8 runs per 9 last 5 and .228 2.78 runs per 9 last 10. The Giants have won 9 out of 10 of the last 10 meetings.The Giants have gotten by with solid pitching 2.38 ERA last 10 vs. the Nats 5.07 ERA last 10. I'm taking the ace on the mound in Lincecum in what should be a low scoring game.
Tony George
Detroit -132 vs. Boston
While starting pitching is not the entire deal when it comes to handicapping a MLB, it is a KEY element. Tonight Boston sends Matzuaka to the hill with an 8.82 ERA and no wins on the season against Rick Porcello who has won his last 3 games tossing out a 2.00 ERA in those wins. He also is 6-3 on the year. The Tigers are 13-3 their last 16 games as a favorite and are 15-7 at home while the Bo Sox continue to struggle on the road this season with a losing record.
Vernon Croy
LAA Angels vs. Toronto Blue Jays
Play: LAA Angels
We have a pitchers dual here tonight in Toronto with two very solid starters so we are getting great value with the Angels in what should be a low scoring game. Roy Halladay (8-1, 2.63 ERA) has pitched solid over his last 2 outings but leaving the lead to the Jays bullpen earned him a no decision in his last outing and lack of run support in Atlanta. I look for the Jays bats to struggle against Joe Saunders (6-3, 3.26) tonight so lack of run support will be a problem once again for the Doc. The Angels are a perfect 7-0 in their last 7 road games as a dog of +151 to +200 and they are 7-1 in their last 8 road games when the posted total is 7.0 to 8.5. The Angels are 17-4 in Saunders last 21 starts as a dog and Halladay has pitched better away from home this season. The Jays are just 8-7 in Halladay's 15 career starts against the Angels and the Jays are just 1-8 in their last 9 games after a loss. Grab the Value and take the L.A. Angels.
Larry Ness
Arizona Diamondbacks @ Los Angeles Dodgers
PICK: Los Angeles Dodgers
I think it's fair to say that while the Dodgers continue to own MLB's best record (35-18), they are beginning to feel the effects of Manny Ramirez's 50-game suspension. LA still leads the NL in runs scored (289 / 5.45 RPG), but the offense hasn't been producing much as of late. Monday's 3-2 home loss to the D'backs dropped the Dodgers to 14-10 without Manny (he was suspended on May 7), as LA didn't score until the ninth inning. In fact, LA's 8-2 win on Sunday night marked the only time in its last five games in which the team has scored more than two runs. The Dodgers were 3-of-14 with RISP last night, leaving them only 9-of-35 (.257) their last five games with RISP. That doesn't bode well vs Dan Haren, who enters with a 2.54 ERA, having allowed two ERs or less in SEVEN of his 10 starts in 2009. Haren has allowed just 55 hits in 71 innings with 71 strikeouts against only nine walks. However, he's just 4-4, with the D'backs going 5-5 in his 10 starts. Randy Wolf gets the call for LA and he knows how Haren feels. Wolf has allowed two ERs or less in SEVEN of his 11 starts in 2009 but is just 3-1 (2.84 ERA). He's 2-0 with five no decisions over his last seven starts (team is 5-2), despite a 2.03 ERA. However, the team has won his last four outings and Wolf is 7-3 with 4.34 ERA in 13 career starts vs Arizona (teams are 9-4), including winning 3-1 at Chase Field on April 12 this year (7 IP / 2 hits / 1 ER). Meanwhile, Haren is 3-4 with a 4.46 ERA in seven career stars vs LA, including losing both of his starts at pitcher-friendly Dodger Stadium last season (10.38 ERA). I'm sticking with Wolf and the Dodgers in this one. After all, LA is 18-6 at home this year, outscoring opponents on average, 5.67 RPG-to-3.29. Meanwhile, the D'backs are 11-10 on the road in 2009, averaging just 3.81 RPG on the road.
Jeff Alexander
1 Unit on Philadelphia Phillies +158
The Phillies have won 4 straight and are 6-1 in their last 7 meetings in San Diego. The reigning World Series champs are an incredible 17-6 on the road this season, where they are scoring 6.3 runs per game. Padres ace Jake Peavy takes the mound tonight, but his team is only supplying the pitching staff with 3.7 runs per game at home. Plus, the Padres are 0-5 in Peavy's last 5 Tuesday starts, 1-5 in his last 6 starts during game 2 of a series, and 1-4 in his last 5 starts with 5 days of rest. I'll back the better team at a great price here.
Drew Gordon
Boston at DETROIT -135
Now 5-1 with my L6 Free Play releases, including a solid winner on the Marlins over the Brewers 7-4 Monday night! We keep it rolling on the Diamond with yet another FREE winner tonight...
You can approach this game in two ways: A. You can live in the past, and wish upon a star that Matsuzaka channels his old self in this match up... Remembering that he went 2-0 with a ridiculous 0.77 ERA last year against the Tigers. OR B. You can live in the present, and realize that the better pitcher tonight is clearly surging rookie Rick Porcello, who was absolutely dominant in the month of May, going 5-0 with a miniscule 1.50 ERA! Sorry Boston-backers, but I'm done "hoping and wishing" that Dice-K gets his head straight, plain and simple.
Not only that, but there's a clear disparity at the plate, where the Tigers crush righties at home, averaging a hearty 5.9 runs/game against them at Comerica this season. The Red Sox meanwhile average just 4.2 runs/game vs. righties on the road, and that's music to Porcello's ears, who's 3-1 with a 3.18 ERA at home on the year.
Finally, a couple things to consider: for all the good things the Red Sox do, they're just 12-16 on the road this season, as compared to a solid 15-7 at home for the Tigers. Not only that, but Detroit is an outstanding 13-3 in their last 16 games as a favorite, which is a tough trend to ignore! In the end, may be it was the World Baseball Classic that screwed him up, but whatever the reason, Dice-K remains nothing short of a liability every time he takes the mound, while Porcello has done nothing but win (and in impressive fashion) for the last month. Play here rests squarely on the Tigers at home!
Take Detroit behind Porcello over Boston and Matsuzaka in this MLB match up.
2♦ DETROIT
Jeff Benton
Cleveland at MINNESOTA
Minnesota has a massive pitching edge in this game, with Kevin Slowey (7-1, 4.11 ERA overall; 3-0, 2.33 ERA last four starts) opposing Cleveland rookie southpaw David Huff (0-1, 10.97 ERA in his first three major-league starts). One of Slowey’s victories came against the Indians in Cleveland back on April 25 when he scattered eight hits and a run over eight innings (a season-high), walking none and striking out seven in a 7-1 rout. For the season, Slowey has 44 strikeouts against just five free passes. Compare that to Huff, who has walked nearly as many batters (six) as he’s struck out (seven).
The Twins are 7-3 with Slowey on the mound this season, with the last six victories coming by multiple runs. Also, last season, Minnesota went 7-1 against the Indians at the Metrodome, and six of those were multi-run wins.
Minnesota comes into this game on runs of 53-23 at home, 46-16 as a home favorite, 24-4 at home against southpaw starters, 16-5 with Slowey pitching at home and 11-1 as a favorite. Finally, 18 of the Twins’ last 21 victories – including 13 of the past 15 – have come by more than a run. This has blowout written all over it. Play the home team on the run line.
3♦ MINNESOTA -1½
Scott Delaney
Now on a 10-4 run with the complimentary releases after the joke-of-a Mariners team failed to score a run. I told you it wasn't worth a damn, and shouldn't be considered anything more than a free throwaway game, right? You rate a game like that last night, you got issues ...
Tonight we're tossing out the Blue Jays on the Run Line and making sure we're getting Roy Halladay on the ticket.
We’ve got one helluva pitching showdown tonight in the Rogers Centre, but I’m going to have to play the Jays based on history with these two pitchers. Now, quick disclaimer, we’re only looking to list Halladay, even though you’re betting on pitchers when you play the run line. If Joe Saunders is the hurler, that’s fine, if the Angels were to scratch him, that’s fine too. Just make sure your Toronto pitcher of record is Roy Halladay.
Halladay, who is 8-1 with a 2.63 ERA and is looking to become the Majors’ first nine-game winner, has tossed four straight quality starts against the Angels. He’s 3-1 in those outings, and has a 1.97 ERA in those games. That includes a May 6 outing, in which he gave up one earned run over eight frames of action – in Anaheim. He’s 4-1 at home this year with a 3.46 ERA, and though he’s been lights out the last two times he’s touched mound, they were on the road and he took no-decisions from the games. Back at home, I like our chances for the win.
As for Saunders, provided it’s him, he’s 0-2 the last two times he’s taken on Toronto, albeit was two seasons back. He allowed eight earned runs in the two starts, and lasted just 12 innings combined. More recently, over his last two starts, he’s 1-2 with a 4.74 ERA. That includes a road outing at Texas, which saw the Rangers rake for seven earned runs over five innings.
I’m going to stake my confidence with the former Cy Young winner and lay the run line with the Jays.
TORONTO BLUE JAYS -1½
Jake Timlin
After cashing on the White Sox last night in their 6-2 win I like Chicago to make it two straight over the struggling Athletics.
Oakland now losers of 5 of their last 6 after last night’s loss in Chicago I see the Athletics struggles continuing once again tonight. Hurting the Athletics is their awful road record that now stands at 8-17 on the year, and also not helping out matters will be the pitching debut of Mazzaro, as I am never a fan of someone making their first MLB start.
Meanwhile, Bartolo Colon will counter after being pushed back a nigh and will do so with his improving ERA of 1.32 in his last three starts which is down from his already solid ERA of 3.80 on the year.
Go with Chicago on back to back nights.
PICK: Chicago White Sox
Jack Jones
15* on Detroit Tigers -129
The Tigers are the play at home tonight against the Boston Red Sox. The starting pitching match up here makes this a solid bet. Rick Porcello has been excellent for the Tigers, going 6-3 so far this season with a 3.48 ERA. In his last 3 starts, Porcello is 3-0 with a 2.00 ERA and a 1.00 WHIP. Meanwhile, the Red Sox will have Daisuke Matsuzaka on the mound. Dice-K has been terrible since being activated from the DL, the Red Sox losing in his last 3 starts while he has posted a 9.82 ERA and a 2.36 WHIP. Boston is now just 12-16 on the road and the Tigers are 15-7 at home. Jump all over Detroit.
Wunderdog
Arizona at Los Angeles Dodgers
Pick: Los Angeles Dodgers -120
When you can get the best home team in baseball at almost break-even odds, you have to give it a very close look. That value is more enticing when you consider the fact that the Dodgers are two runs a game better offensively than the Diamondbacks, and have pitched equally well. Dan Haren is an outstanding pitcher, but has not been sharp in recent outings, and as good as he is, over his last 57 road starts his teams have a losing record! The Dodgers are 23-4 in their last 27 as a -110 to -150 home favorite, and 10-2 in Wolf's last 12 home starts. The D-Backs are just 1-4 in Haren's last five starts vs. the National League West, as well as his last five starts vs. the Dodgers. The D-Backs have also not fared well here, as they are just 1-7 in their last eight games in Los Angeles. The Dodgers get the call here.
Yankee Capper
Boston Red Sox +120
Cleveland/Minnesota Over 9.5
Seattle Mariners -140
San Diego Padres -165
Lenny Del Genio
Los Angeles Angels at Toronto Blue Jays
Prediction: Los Angeles Angels
Beware of falling for the fair price on Toronto starter Roy Halladay, who has already tried and failed twice for win #9 on the year. Over the last two seasons, the Angels are 8-2 as a road underdog of +150 or more and starter Saunders is just devastating away from LA, with the team winning 16 of his last 21 road starts. He also owns an 11-2 team start record in the underdog role, not to mention the Halos are a perfect 9 for 9 when Saunders starts and he allowed two or more home runs last outing. Take LA Angels.
Game Time Sports Advisors
Boston Red Sox vs. Detroit Tigers
Play: Detroit Tigers
Porcello has been lights out going 5-0 with a 1.50 era his last 5 outings. Dice-K is now 0-3 on the year with an era approaching 9. Tigers seem to be playing good ball lately. We will back the hot pitcher at home.
Rocketman
Cincinnati Reds vs. St Louis Cardinals
Play: St Louis Cardinals
Cincinnati is 27-23 overall this year while St Louis comes in with a 29-22 record on the season. St Louis bullpen has a 3.44 ERA overall this year. Bronson Arroyo has a 5.12 ERA overall this year. St Louis is 12-4 at home vs Cincinnati the past 3 years. Brad Thompson is 2-0 overall vs Cincinnati since 1997 and during those starts his team is now 4-0. Reds are 1-6 in their last 7 road games vs. a right-handed starter. Reds are 1-6 in their last 7 road games. Cardinals are 8-0 in Thompsons last 8 starts as a home favorite. Cardinals are 9-1 in Thompsons last 10 home starts with the total set at 9.0-10.5. Cardinals are 8-1 in Thompsons last 9 starts vs. National League Central. Cardinals are 8-1 in Thompsons last 9 starts as a favorite. We'll recommend a small play on St Louis tonight!