Scott Rickenbach
New York Mets at Pittsburgh Pirates
Prediction: Under
Short and sweet is the "order of the day" with this one! The fact is that the Mets lineup has been so banged up their very unlikely to produce much against Zach Duke of the Pirates. The Pittsburgh southpaw is solid enough to shutdown a Mets lineup that is simply not itself right now. As for the Pirates lineup, don't look for them to be able to scratch much against one of the best left-handers in the business. That's why one should consider a small play on UNDER the total in Pittsburgh on Tuesday night.
Dave Price
1 Unit on NY Mets -152
This is actually a pretty good price to get the Mets with Santana on the hill. Santana is 7-2 on the season with a 1.77 ERA. He is 3-1 on the road with a 2.36 ERA and he has won each of his last 3 starts. The Mets are a ridiculous 20-6 in Santana's last 26 starts, 8-1 in his last 9 road starts, and 10-1 in his last 11 starts vs. the National League Central. The Pirates are just 1-7 in Duke's last 8 starts as an underdog of +110 to +150 and 8-23 in his last 31 starts vs. a team with a winning record. The Mets have taken 6 of the last 8 meetings overall and they get my support here.
BEN BURNS
Texas Rangers @ New York Yankees
PICK: Under
Many assume that games between the Rangers and Yankees are typically going to be high-scoring. That's not always the case though. In fact, looking at the last 15 meetings and we find the UNDER at a profitable 8-5-2. The last five meetings have averaged just 8.8 runs. With Yankee Stadium proving to be "hitter-friendly," thus far, we've got a high over/under number (opened at 10.5 and climbed to 11 at some shops and now back to 10.5) to work with. I won't be surprised if this evening's game also proves lower-scoring than most are expecting.
Burnett is coming off a gem vs. these same Rangers, which saw him allow just three hits through six shutout innings. That was the sixth time that he has faced Texas and he allowed four earned runs or less in all six games. He had a solid 3.66 ERA and 1.169 WHIP in those games with the 'under' going 4-1-1. That includes a 3-0-1 mark since Burnett moved over to the American League.
While it's true that the Rangers will be getting a second look at him in a short time (which can be helpful to hitters) I think the fact that Burnett pitched so well is more important, as he'd gone through a tough stretch and has now delivered two quality starts in his last three. He's a "streaky" pitcher and when "on," he's capable of dominating - even against a lineup that has just seen him. It should also be noted that the Rangers, who are expected to be without slugger Josh Hamilton, typically don't hit nearly as well outside of Texas. While their offensive stats at home are great, the Rangers are averaging just 4.5 runs per game on the road and hitting only .249.
Padilla managed to avoid the Yankees in the recent series. He was 'ok' in last season's start against them, allowing four runs through six complete innings. He had five K's and one walk. He was very sharp in his lone start here at New York though, allowing just three hits (and two runs) through 6 2/3 innings. While this is a new version of Yankee Stadium, the point is that he wasn't bothered by pitching under the 'big city lights.'
More importantly, Padilla has been dominant of late. In his last three starts he's gone 2-0 (team is 3-0) with a terrific 1.57 ERA and 0.957 WHIP. He went at least seven complete innings in all three start, including eight in two of them - he didn't allow a home run in any of them. For the season, he's got a 2.08 ERA and a very stingy 0.807 WHIP on the road. It should be noted that Padilla is coming off the disabled list for a strained shoulder and that he hasn't pitched since mid-May. That was one of the reasons this didn't quite make the cut as a "guaranteed"selection. All the same, I feel the 'under' is worth considering.
Nite Owl Sports
Detroit Red Wings @ Pittsburgh Penguins
Pick: 3 units: Under 5.5
The most obvious thing about this key game 3 is that it is a “make or break” game for Pens, just like last year’s finals, when they were also in an 0-2 “hole” after losing games one and two in “Hockey Town,” but at least made things interesting for awhile, with their 3-2 win in game 3. And while we would not be at all surprised with a similar result TY, and would not go against Pens in this “must win” (for them) game, how much sense does it make to lay this “heavy” 150 money line price tag (placed on Pens) against last year’s Stanley Cup champs, and probably this year’s as well? Very little, in our opinion. And the puck line? Give me a break – that’s not even worth considering for either team here, and was barely even worth mentioning.
So if we want to play this game, that leaves the total as the only remaining option, but fortunately (we hope) for us, we see taking the UNDER 5.5 goals here as a good option.
It’s unusual for a Stanley Cup finals match-up to have as much recent “history” as this one does, but that’s the situation here, with these two having also played six games in LY’s finals, won 4-2 by Detroit. And in the ten games played so far between them since last may, the under is 2-6-2, with an average of just 5.2 gpg, but both of the “pushes” were 5 goal games at Pitt in LY’s finals, and would have been “unders” vs the totals line of 5.5 set for this game. And looking at the 3 games played LY in Pitt, plus Detroit’s 3-0 regular season win there TY, the series under is 0-4 to the under, with an average of just 4 total gpg scored.
And if we look at the totals results for both teams games in their respective modes for this game (Pitt at home, and Wings away), based on playoff games this year (but excluding Wing’s easy first round wins over a Blue Jackets team that showed their total lack of playoff experience by easily getting ‘swept away’ by Wings) and in last year’s finals against each other, plus TY’s regular season Wings - Pens game at the Igloo, Detroit is 3-4-2 to the under on the road, with an average of just 5.0 total gpg, while Pens are 3-7-2 to the under at home, with an average of 5.55 total gpg, noting again that the two totals “pushes” for each team were the two 5 goal games at Pitt in LY’s finals, both of which would have been “unders” vs the totals line of 5.5 set for this game. And speaking of those two pushes at Pitt in LY’s finals, and the totals line, note that this could be our final “shot” at an under play in this series with a line of 5.5, as another under in game 3 would make it 3 straight unders for the series, which will likely cause the line makers to “chop” the total down to 5 (or if still 5.5, at least burden the under with heavy “juice”). In any event, combining and averaging the above #s, and counting the four Wings-Pens games at the Igloo just 4X, not 8X, gives the UNDER a significant 9-6-2 edge, and a projected 5.27 goals being scored in this game 3.
So based on all of the foregoing support, we’ll make this 3 unit pick on UNDER 5.5 goals, just like our game two win for 3 units on the under.
Mike Rose
Detroit Red Wings @ Pittsburgh Penguins Over 5.5
For Detroit, the formula is simple: Keep doing what youre doing, and youe probably two to three games away from lifting Lord Stanleys Cup for a second straight season. It still has to be very frightening for the Penguins that C Pavel Datsyuk has yet to play a game in this series, and that C Johan Franzen only has one goal. That duo combined for 155 points in the regular season, and will only certainly improve as this series progresses. The story for the Wings has been the play of G Chris Osgood, who has now held opponents to just one goal in four straight games. In that stretch, he has stopped a whopping 96.5% of his shots, and he has single-handedly carried his team to victory in spite of average offensive efforts. The Red Wings ranked 1st in the NHL in power play percentage this season, but have yet to tally a goal with the man-advantage in this series.
After impressive series against both Carolina and Washington, C Sidney Crosby has been completely MIA in this series against Detroit. He has yet to find the score sheet and has only logged seven shots on net for his efforts. C Evgeni Malkin made his presence known in Game 2, as he scored the opening goal of the game, but unfortunately for him, he'll be most remembered for starting a fight with Detroits LW Henrik Zetterberg with just 19 seconds to play in the game. Game 2 was another dismal effort for G Marc-Andre Fleury, who only stopped 23 of 26 shots and suffered his second consecutive loss after rolling off five straight victories. Once again, this is the type of goaltending that the Pens have gotten for the majority of the postseason. Its the offense that needs to step it up in order for them to get back in this series.
Fool me once, shame on you. Fool me twice, shame on me. Well, were back for a third go-around on the over in this series now that it has shifted to Pittsburgh. Osgood has been ridiculously hot so far, but its hard to imagine him keeping this Penguins offense down forever. If he does, this series may never return to Detroit. In order for Pittsburgh to have a shot tonight, it must score at least three goals. Well hope they reach at least four tonight.
Hunter Price
Detroit Red Wings vs. Pittsburgh Penguins
Play: Pittsburgh Penguins
If you look up the definition of a must win game, you will see a preview of this years game 3 of the Stanley Cup Finals. The Pens are currently sitting at 0-2 and if they don't win tonight there is a extremely high chance that they could be swept at home in gmae 4. That being said, while games 1 and 2 were both 2 goal margins, the pens out shot and out chanced the Wings in both games and it was the amazing goal tending of Osgood that was the difference. I mean the guys who have been coming up big for the wings are at best bit players and should not be counted on to get it done in what is going to be a completely rocking arena in Pittsburgh. Crosby and Malkin are also going to get freed up tonight as the Wings will have a boat load of trouble getting their defensive stoppers on the ice at the same time each and every shift as they did at home. For these few simple reasons look for the tide to turn and the Pens get back into the hunt for the cup and will make game 4 the newest / biggest game of this playoff season!
GoodFella
DET (-125) vs BOS
Detroit takes on the Red Sox at home tonight, and they give the ball to their red-hot young stud Rick Porcello. Boston hands the ball off to the struggling Dice-K. Both of these clubs have strong bullpens, so IMO no real edge there. Porecello's last 3 starts, he is 3-0 with a 2.00 ERA and a 1.00 WHIP, very impressive numbers & I have personally watched 2 of his L./3 starts & his command is spot on right now. For Boston, Dice-K has been a disaster in his L/3 starts, since coming off the disabled list, he has posted a 9.82 ERA and a 2.36 WHIP. Clearly Detroit excels at home, as their (15-7) record indicates & the BoSox are just (12-16) on the road this season. This is a nice spot to back Detroit tonight, and I look for another home win from them tonight.
Randall the Handle
Baltimore +1.36 over SEATTLE
Once again the M’s offer up very little as a favorite and that’s because of a lack of offense. Case in point was last night in which they allowed just a single run and lost 1-0. Now they’ll face a pitcher they’ve never seen in highly touted David Hernandez. Hernandez made his season debut last week against a much more dangerous Tigers club, allowing just a single run in 5.2 innings. That start came at Camden Yards, which is also tough on pitchers and now he’ll take his terrific start to one of the friendliest pitcher’s park in the business. Erik Bedard can definitely be tough but again, he pitches for a challenged offense and that’s why he has just three wins in nine starts. The Orioles love playing at this park and they love playing against this host, as their nine wins in the last 11 contests against the Mariners will attest to. Price is good and so are our chances of visiting the cashier. Play: Baltimore +1.36 (Risking 2 units).
Oakland +1.31 over CHICAGO (1st 5 innings)
Wagering on anything is all about finding some value, betting it and letting the chips fall where they may. The A’s are similar to the M’s in that both are very risky chalk bets but that isn’t the case here. The A’s have called up rookie Vin Mazzaro and this guy has completely dominated in the minors at every level. Mazzaro started ’08 at Double-A Midland, where he led the Texas League with 12 wins and a 1.90 ERA. Subsequently he was named Texas League Pitcher of the Year and a Texas League midseason and postseason All-Star. This year at the Triple-A level, pitching for the Sacramento River Cats, Mazzaro has thrown 56 innings and has allowed 42 hits and 15 earned runs for a 2.38 ERA and .205 BAA. He’s struck out 44 while walking just 17. The kid is ready for prime time. The South Side is warm at the moment but trusting Bartolo Colon could be a big mistake. Colon was scratched from yesterday’s start and the White Sox aren’t saying why. He has a high WHIP, a very average BAA of .272 and his 3.80 ERA is a little misleading as well. Colon has worked out of a number of jams, he’s been scorched in two of his last four starts and the fact that he was pushed back a day for this start should be concerning for anyone thinking of laying the lumber. The White Sox know nothing about Mazzaro and with his good stuff he has a great chance of taking this one to the sixth inning with a lead. Play: Oakland +1.31 in the first 5 innings (Risking 2 units).
Philadelphia +1.60 over SAN DIEGO
If I can take a gamble on the A’s at +1.40 I can absolutely take a shot on the Phillies at +1.60. Yeah, Jake Peavy is going but so what. The Phillies can bash, the Padres cannot and we’re taking back a giant tag on the much better offense. Antonio Bastardo will make his major league debut and this Dominican looks like the real deal. Bastardo is a southpaw that’s appeared in nine games for the Triple-A Lehigh Valley Iron Pigs. All he’s done is strikeout 39 batters in 34 innings while walking just seven. He posted a 1.82 ERA and a .178 BAA and in those 34 International League innings he allowed just one jack. The Phillies have now won four straight and teams always get a little extra juiced up when a top prospect arrives. The Padres have lost three of four and they already had their big run of the year. This is a bad Padres team that is beatable no matter who is pitching and the price here on the Phillies is a bit insane. Play: Philadelphia +1.60 (Risking 2 units).