SPORTS ADVISORS
Chicago White Sox (30-34) at Chicago Cubs (30-30)
The Cubs and White Sox renew their Windy City rivalry at Wrigley Field, with ace Carlos Zambrano (4-2, 3.39 ERA) scheduled to pitch for the home team opposite John Danks (4-5, 4.81) in the opener of a three-game series.
The Cubs put the brakes on a four-game losing skid and salvaged a weekend series against Minnesota with a 3-2, walk-off victory Sunday. The Cubs are 24-8 in their last 32 home games against lefty starters and 5-2 in their last seven after an off day, but they remain in slumps of 1-6 in interleague action, 1-5 versus the A.L. Central (all this season) and 1-4 versus southpaw starters.
The White Sox took Monday off after winning the final two games of a weekend series in Milwaukee, prevailing 7-1 on Saturday and 5-4 on Sunday. Ozzie Guillen’s squad enters this series on streaks of 5-1 on the road, 4-1 after an off day, 8-2 in interleague contests and 7-2 versus the N.L. Central.
The Cubs have won nine of the last 13 meetings in this rivalry, including six of the last seven at Wrigley Field. Last year, the teams split a pair of three-game series, with the host winning all six games.
Zambrano scattered a run on three hits over eight innings at Houston on Tuesday, but got a no-decision in his team’s 2-1 loss. The right-hander has allowed three earned runs or fewer in all but one of his 10 starts this season, going 1-0 with a 0.86 ERA in his last three trips to the mound and 1-1 with a 4.62 ERA in four home efforts this season.
With Zambrano on the hill, the Cubs are on upticks of 7-3 overall, 26-11 when playing on grass, 4-1 against the A.L. Central and 10-2 in series openers. Against the White Sox in his career, Big Z is 5-2 with a 4.45 ERA over 11 appearances (nine starts).
Danks was a tough-luck loser in Detroit on Wednesday, allowing two runs on five hits over 7 1/3 innings, but falling 2-1. The left-hander has just three quality starts in his last nine outings, with his team losing five of those contests. He’s 3-2 with a hefty 5.79 ERA in six road games in 2009.
The White Sox are 5-2 in Danks’ last seven road starts, but 2-5 in his last seven against the N.L. and 3-7 in his last 10 Tuesday outings. His only start against the Cubs came last June, and he gave up just a run in six innings, but the White Sox lost 4-3 at Wrigley.
Zambrano’s last four starts have stayed under the total, but otherwise with the veteran pitching, the “over” is on streaks of 8-3 at home, 7-1 in interleague play, 4-0 on Tuesday and 5-2-1 when he pitches against the White Sox. Also, the over is 4-1 in Danks’ last five road outings.
The White Sox are riding “under” streaks of 11-3-1 overall, 5-1-1 in interleague play (all on the road), 7-1-1 against right-handed starters and 10-4-1 in series openers. The Cubs carry “under” trends of 22-8 overall, 7-2 at home, 4-1 on Tuesday, 5-1 after an off day, 5-1 against lefty starters and 9-3-1 when opening a series. Conversely, the over is 6-2 in the last eight Sox-Cubs clashes at Wrigley.
ATS ADVANTAGE: UNDER
Detroit (34-29) at St. Louis (34-30)
Justin Verlander (7-2, 3.02 ERA) guns for his eighth consecutive victory when he leads the Tigers against the Cardinals and Adam Wainwright (6-4, 3.49) in the opener of a three-game interleague series at Busch Stadium.
Detroit is 4-4 on its current 11-game road trip, losing consecutive games at Pittsburgh on Saturday and Sunday by scores of 9-3 and 6-3, respectively. The Tigers have scored exactly three runs in four straight games and a total of 14 runs in their last five. Still, they’re on runs of 45-19 in interleague play, 13-6 in interleague road games, 23-11 against the N.L. Central, 16-5 as a favorite, 23-7 as a road favorite and 41-10 as a chalk against the National League.
St. Louis is coming off Sunday’s 3-0 loss at Cleveland, dropping to 3-7 in its last 10 games. Despite the presence of slugger Albert Pujols, the Cardinals have scored three runs or fewer in 22 of their last 32 games, including seven of the last 10. Tony LaRussa’s club has dropped four straight home games, six consecutive series openers and four in a row after an off day.
Since losing to the Redbirds in five games in the 2006 World Series, Detroit is 5-1 against St. Louis, all in interleague action the past two seasons. However, all six of those games were played in Motown. Since the start of the 2006 season, the home team has won 12 of the last 14 head-to-head clashes, with only three of those contests – Games 3, 4 and 5 of the ‘06 World Series – played in St. Louis.
Verlander has been as dominant as any pitcher in baseball over the past seven weeks, stringing together nine straight quality starts while going 7-0 with a 1.10 ERA (eight earned runs in 65 1/3 innings) with 83 strikeouts against just 16 walks. He’s tossed two complete games during this stretch, including a 2-1 victory at the White Sox on Wednesday when gave up just six hits, including a solo home run, and a walk while whiffing nine.
Detroit is 8-2 in Verlander’s last 10 starts overall, 5-1 in his last six on the road, 6-1 in his last seven against the National League and 7-1 in his last eight as a favorite. The veteran right-hander is 4-0 with a 1.47 ERA in his last five roadies and 2-1 with a 4.68 ERA in four career starts (two regular season, two in the World Series) against St. Louis.
Wainwright knocked off Florida 13-4 on Wednesday, yielding all four runs and 11 hits in seven innings. The right-hander has completed at least six innings in 11 consecutive starts, allowing two earned runs or fewer in six of those contests and in eight of his 13 starts overall this season.
With Wainwright on the bump, the Cardinals are on streaks of 18-7 overall, 17-6 at home, 7-0 as an underdog, 5-1 on Tuesday and 21-5 against opponents that have a winning record.
Wainwright is just 2-3 in seven games at home this season despite a sterling 2.74 ERA. He’s never started against Detroit before, but he earned the save in the World Series-clinching 4-2 home win back in 2006, pitching one scoreless inning.
The Tigers are on a bunch of “under” streaks, including 20-7 overall, 4-1 on the road, 11-3-1 in interleague road games, 21-6 against right-handed starters, 11-2 on Tuesday, 4-0 as a favorite and 13-3-1 in series openers. Also, St. Louis is on “under” tears of 10-4 at home, 14-6-1 against right-handed starters, 5-0-1 against the American League, 6-0 in interleague home games, 37-18-5 after a day off and 7-1-2 in series openers.
Lastly, the under is 4-1 in the last five Tigers-Cardinals meetings at Busch Stadium.
ATS ADVANTAGE: DETROIT and UNDER
DUNKEL
Arizona at Kansas City
The Diamondbacks look to take advantage of a Kansas City team that is 0-5 in Gil Meche's last 5 home starts. Arizona is the underdog pick (+140) according to Dunkel, which has the Diamondbacks favored by 1/2 a run. Dunkel Pick: Arizona (+140).
Game 951-952: Atlanta at Cincinnati
Dunkel Ratings: Atlanta (Jurrjens) 13.553; Cincinnati (Harang) 14.561
Dunkel Line: Cincinnati by 1; 6 1/2
Vegas Line: Atlanta (-120); 8
Dunkel Pick: Cincinnati (+110); Under
Game 953-954: Washington at NY Yankees
Dunkel Ratings: Washington (Martis) 14.952; NY Yankees (Sabathia) 15.915
Dunkel Line: NY Yankees by 2; 8 1/2
Vegas Line: NY Yankees (-360); 9 1/2
Dunkel Pick: NY Yankees (-360); Under
Game 955-956: NY Mets at Baltimore
Dunkel Ratings: NY Mets (Pelfrey) 15.887; Baltimore (Guthrie) 14.667
Dunkel Line: NY Mets by 1; 10 1/2
Vegas Line: Baltimore (-135); 9
Dunkel Pick: NY Mets (+125); Over
Game 957-958: Toronto at Philadelphia
Dunkel Ratings: Toronto (Romero) 14.377; Philadelphia (Hamels) 16.374
Dunkel Line: Philadelphia by 2; 8 1/2
Vegas Line: Philadelphia (-230); 9
Dunkel Pick: Philadelphia (-230); Under
Game 959-960: Milwaukee at Cleveland
Dunkel Ratings: Milwaukee (Gallardo) 15.407; Cleveland (Sowers) 15.997
Dunkel Line: Cleveland by 1/2; 10 1/2
Vegas Line: Milwaukee (-145); 8 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Cleveland (+135); Over
Game 961-962: Florida at Boston
Dunkel Ratings: Florida (Volstad) 17.180; Boston (Wakefield) 16.668
Dunkel Line: Florida by 1/2; 10
Vegas Line: Boston (-175); 9 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Florida (+165); Over
Game 963-964: Houston at Texas
Dunkel Ratings: Houston (Rodriguez) 13.978; Texas (Millwood) 15.555
Dunkel Line: Texas by 1 1/2; 8 1/2
Vegas Line: Texas (-145); 9
Dunkel Pick: Texas (-145); Under
Game 965-966: Chicago White Sox at Chicago Cubs
Dunkel Ratings: White Sox (Danks) 16.400; Cubs (Zambrano) 15.253
Dunkel Line: Chicago White Sox by 1; 7
Vegas Line: Chicago Cubs (-160); No Run Line
Dunkel Pick: Chicago White Sox (+150); N/A
Game 967-968: Arizona at Kansas City
Dunkel Ratings: Arizona (Davis) 14.853; Kansas City (Meche) 14.148
Dunkel Line: Arizona by 1/2; 9 1/2
Vegas Line: Kansas City (-150); 8
Dunkel Pick: Arizona (+140); Over
Game 969-970: Pittsburgh at Minnesota
Dunkel Ratings: Pittsburgh (Maholm) 15.459; Minnesota (Perkins) 16.224
Dunkel Line: Minnesota by 1; 9
Vegas Line: Minnesota (-155); 8 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Minnesota (-155); Over
Game 971-972: Detroit at St. Louis
Dunkel Ratings: Detroit (Verlander) 14.126; St. Louis (Wainwright)
Dunkel Line: St. Louis by 1 1/2; 8
Vegas Line: Detroit (-120); 7
Dunkel Pick: St. Louis (+110); Over
Game 973-974: Tampa Bay at Colorado
Dunkel Ratings: Tampa Bay (Niemann) 16.318; Colorado (De La Rosa) 17.241
Dunkel Line: Colorado by 1; 8 1/2
Vegas Line: Colorado (-145); 10
Dunkel Pick: Colorado (-145); Under
Game 975-976: Seattle at San Diego
Dunkel Ratings: Seattle (Hernandez) 14.200; San Diego (Correia) 14.400
Dunkel Line: San Diego by 1/2; 8 1/2
Vegas Line: Seattle (-150); 7
Dunkel Pick: San Diego (+140); Over
Game 977-978: Oakland at LA Dodgers
Dunkel Ratings: Oakland (Braden) 14.677; LA Dodgers (Kershaw) 15.498
Dunkel Line: LA Dodgers by 1; 6 1/2
Vegas Line: LA Dodgers (-145); 7 1/2
Dunkel Pick: LA Dodgers (-145); Under
Game 979-980: LA Angels at San Francisco
Dunkel Ratings: LA Angels (O'Sullivan) 17.235; San Francisco (Sanchez) 16.011
Dunkel Line: LA Angels by 1; 8 1/2
Vegas Line: No Line
Dunkel Pick: N/A
WNBA
Connecticut at Chicago
The Sky are coming off back-to-back wins and look to build on their 7-3 ATS record in their last 10 games following a SU win. Chicago is the pick (-3) according to Dunkel, which has the Sky favored by 6. Dunkel Pick: Chicago (-3).
Game 601-602: Connecticut at Chicago
Dunkel Ratings: Connecticut 106.702; Chicago 112.912
Dunkel Line & Total: Chicago by 6; 141
Vegas Line & Total: Chicago by 3; 146 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Chicago (-3); Under
Game 603-604: Minnesota at Sacramento
Dunkel Ratings: Minnesota 114.950; Sacramento 114.502
Dunkel Line & Total: Even; 168
Vegas Line & Total: Sacramento by 3; 161
Dunkel Pick: Minnesota (+3); Over
BIG AL
Milwaukee Brewers at Cleveland Indians
At 7:05 pm, our member selection is on the Milwaukee Brewers over the Cleveland Indians. The Brew Crew just had an awful 1-5 home stand and looks to win back-to-back road games with another victory at Jacobs Field tonight (Milwaukee won 14-12 last night). In this match-up, Yovani Gallardo will take on southpaw Jeremy Sowers. Gallardo is one of my favorite hurlers, and this season he is 6-3 in 12 starts with a 2.88 ERA. Sowers, on the other hand, is 0-3 in his five starts (1-3 overall in six appearances) and his ERA in all games this season is 5.10. Cleveland is a dismal 22-30 this year vs. right-handed starters, and will be overmatched by Gallardo tonight. Take Milwaukee.
Play on: Milwaukee
Vernon Croy
Chicago White Sox vs. Chicago Cubs
Play: Chicago Cubs
This pick falls into one of my top MLB systems and this would be a premium play for me if it wasn't over my strict personal limit of a -150 opening line. Carlos Zambrano (4-2, 3.39 ERA) takes the mound for the Cubs and he has pitched solid over his last 3 starts with an ERA of just 0.89 while allowing just 5 hits and 1 earned run over his last 2 starts. John Danks (4-5, 4.81) get's the start for the White Sox and he has struggled over his last 3 starts with an ERA of 5.40 while giving up 4 homeruns. The White Sox are just 1-4 in their last 5 games after a win and they are just 2-8 in Danks last 10 starts as a underdog. The Cubs are 4-1 in their last 5 games as a home favorite of -151 to -200 and they are 10-2 in Zambrano's last 12 starts in game 1 of a series. The White Sox are just 1-6 in their last 7 games played at Wrigley and the Cubs are 6-1 in Zambrano's last 7 starts after a quality start in his last outing. Take the Chicago Cubs Tuesday night.
Frank Jordan
Milwaukee Brewers vs. Cleveland Indians
Play: Cleveland Indians
The Brewers and Indians scored a total of 26 runs as the ball was flying out of Progressive Field on Monday night. Look for the two starting pitchers on Tuesday to benefit by the offensive slump the bats will go into. Look for Cleveland to bounce back and even the series at 1-1 with a low scoring win behind Jeremy Sowers as he outduels Gallardo. Play Cleveland
Cajun Sports
Houston Astros vs. Texas Rangers
Play: Texas Rangers
Rangers Park in Arlington will be the site of this interleague battle between in-state rivals the Texas Rangers and the visiting Houston Astros. Both teams are riding small streaks the Astros have won their last two games after dropping the first in a three-game set against Arizona while the Rangers are riding a two-game losing streak after taking game one in a three-game series versus the LA Dodgers. Houston is 29-32 W/L (-2.5) on the season and 13-14 (+0.8) on the road. The Astros average 4.2 runs per game on the road while allowing their opponents to plate 5.1 runs per game. Houston’s bullpen has struggled when playing on the highway this season they have an ERA of 5.40 and a WHIP of 1.751. Houston is hoping tonight’s starter Wandy Rodriguez can give them more than his 5.6 IP average on the road this season. He is 2-3 W/L with an ERA of 3.74 on the road and 0-2 W/L with an ERA of 7.02 (WHIP 1.860) in his last three trips to the bump overall. Wandy has managed to go 3-0 W/L versus Texas in his career with the last meeting coming at home against tonight’s starter Kevin Millwood for the Rangers back in June of 08 as the Astros got a 7 to 2 win. Millwood will certainly remember that start and be looking for a little revenge here tonight. Millwood is 4-1 W/L at home this season with an ERA of 2.19 and averages 7.0 innings per start. His bullpen has been better than Houston’s with an ERA of 4.88 at home and a WHIP of 1.471. Over his last three outings he has been superb posting a record of 2-0 W/L with an ERA of only 0.87 and a WHIP of 1.113. In his last start he won at home versus Toronto 1 to 0 pitching 7.7 innings giving up five hits in the win. His previous start before that was on the road at Boston where he pitched for 7 innings giving up 1 unearned run on seven hits in a 5 to 1 win. Texas has dominated this series over the last three seasons going 10-5 W/L including 3-0 W/L this season. In all games at Texas the last three years the Rangers are 4-2 W/L in the six meetings for +2.1 Units. The Rangers are also active in a MLB System that tells us to Play On MLB favorites of -110 or higher with a bullpen that converts on 75 percent or more of their save opportunities against an opponent with a starting pitcher whose ERA is 3.00 or better on the season. This system has a record of 79-37 W/L over the last five seasons for 68.1 percent winners and a profit of +29.90 units. Houston is 0-10 W/L (-10.3) when Rodriguez takes the bump on the road versus teams whose batters draw three walks or less per game. Finally we see that the Rangers bounce back from losing two of their last three games by going 15-6 W/L (+11.4) this season. With the combination of fundamental and technical support for the Rangers we will back them here in game one of this series as they put an end to both teams’ recent streaks and put us in the winner’s circle on Tuesday night.
Graded Selection: 2* Texas Rangers 5 Houston Astros 2
LT Profits
New York Mets @ Baltimore Orioles
Neither Jeremy Guthrie of the Baltimore Orioles nor Mike Pelfrey of the New York Mets has been particularly sharp lately, and when you add in two capable offenses, there should be lot of scoring at Camden Yards tonight.
The Orioles were expecting big things from Guthrie this season, as he has had some of the toughest luck in baseball the last few years, pitching very well with no run support. Well, Guthrie cannot make that claim this year as he has been a major disappointment, going 4-6 with a 5.52 ERA and 1.45 WHIP. He has been even worse than that in his last three starts, going 0-2 with an atrocious 8.53 ERA and 1.66 WHIP, so he is showing no signs of turning it around.
Pelfrey has always been inconsistent, and this year is no exception. He is 4-2, but that is due to some nice run support, as he has a 4.58 ERA and 1.47 WHIP, and he has been simply brutal on the road, where he owns a 6.33 ERA and 1.78 WHIP. Yes, he is coming off of a fine outing where he held the Philadelphia Phillies to two earned runs in six innings, but Pelfrey has been too erratic to expect a second straight goof effort, especially on the road.
He is also facing a Baltimore offense that scored 11 runs on Sunday and eight runs on Saturday, so look for a slugfest here tonight.
Pick: Mets/Orioles Over 9.5
Marc Lawrence
Play On: Kansas City w/Meche vs Davis
Note: The Royals host the Diamondbacks in the opener of this three-game Interleague showdown tonight when they send Gil Meche to the hill against Doug Davis. Meche enters tonight game with 8 wins in his last 10 home team starts in June. He's also 3-0 with a 2.95 ERA in his MLB career team starts against Colorado. On the flip side, Davis is 1-5 in his MLB career road starts in June and 1-3 with a 9.81 ERA in his career team starts in Kansas City. Stay at home with Meche and the Royals here tonight.
Brad Diamond Sports
Play on: Pittsburgh (Maholm) over Minnesota
The Pirates have suffered in Inter-League play since its inception at 66-106 (22-61 on the road), however, they do gain a measured edge Tuesday when they visit the Minnesota Metro Dome. Opposing Minnesota is suffering from key lineup injuries. In addition, they throw lefty Perkins (1-3, 5.36) who is coming off the DL, and really needs more work before he regains form. Opposing hurler Maholm, off a great outing, should be a key edge this time around. With the Pirates a respectable 30-33 on the season, I see an outright upset this evening on the road.
Alex Smart
Detroit Tigers @ St. Louis Cardinals
Justin Verlander (7-2,3.02 ERA) the Tigers starting pitcher tonight against the St.Louis Cardinals continues to dominate opposing batting orders. That is evident by a perfect 7-0 record and 1.10 ERA in his past nine starts. The former Old Dominion College standout, has also been lights out in his career vs the National League garnering a 8-0 life time mark along with a 2.30 ERA over 10 career starts in Interleague action. While I'm not betting on his team to win, I am counting on more of the same top tier work in this spot vs a Cardinals team that is averaging just 4.2 RPG in Busch Stadium this season via a batting average that nears the Mendoza line.
Meanwhile, the Cardinals starter Adam Wainwright (6-4,3.49 ERA) is also in top form, registering a extremely solid 2.68 ERA in his last 6 overall starts and has pitched his best at home this season, recording a stingy 2.74 ERA in 7 appearances . He should have another viable outing vs a Tigers team that has struggled against right handers this season (.250 BA).
Considering the pitching mathup it will be an easy decision to recommend a wager on the under.
Final notes & Key Trends: Under is 6-0 in Cardinals last 6 interleague home games vs. a right-handed starter.Under is 4-1 in the last 5 meetings in St. Louis.Under is 6-0 in Cardinals last 6 interleague home games.Under is 5-0 in Tigers last 5 road games vs. a right-handed starter.Under is 11-3-1 in Tigers last 15 interleague road games.
Play Under
Scott Spreitzer
Oakland Athletics at Los Angeles Dodgers
Prediction: Under
Oakland's hitting has gone by the wayside during their current slide. The A's have averaged just 2.5 rpg in their last six games, losing five. Tonight, they'll take on Clayton Kershaw who has pitched pretty well against the American League. The Dodger righty owns a 3.50 ERA in four interleague starts in his career. Oakland starter Dallas Braden owns decent numbers overall, and especially in his last five starts. He's 2-0 in those five outings, allowing just 11 earned runs and 38 base runners in 34 IP. That's an average of almost 7 IP per start with a 2.91 ERA and 1.12 WHIP. Los Angeles is nothing special at the plate without Manny, and they're at their run-scoring worst in home night games against southpaws, averaging just 3.6 rpg in seven outings. Both teams are in weak hitting situations and both starters are set-up to perform well. I'm playing the Under between the A's & Dodgers on Tuesday night.
Stephen Nover
Seattle Mariners @ San Diego Padres
PICK: Seattle Mariners
The San Diego Padres have lost 11 straight interleague games and face a huge pitching disadvantage in this matchup.
Kevin Correia, a journeyman with below average stuff and a 4.80 ERA, is on the hill for San Diego against "King" Felix Hernandez.
Few pitchers are as good as Hernandez when he's right. And he's been right. Hernandez is 2-0 with a 0.94 ERA in his last four starts. He is 3-0 with a 1.85 ERA in his last five interleague starts, all of which were Seattle victories.
Hernandez should have no trouble turning in his 10th quality start in 14 outings this season against a puny San Diego attack made much weaker without underrated injured outfielder Scott Hairston and with Adrian Gonzalez on a 10-game homerless streak.
The Padres have lost their last 11 interleague games by an average of four runs per loss. Seattle is not an elite American League team. But Hernandez is an elite pitcher when he's healthy and right like he is now.
John Fisher
Arizona D-Backs vs. Kansas City Royals
Play: Under 8.5
I actually have this game at 7. Dont be deceived with these pitchers lack of winning records. Lets call them them the hard luck kids Meche ERA is less than 2 last 3 games and Davis the lefty has looked good but cant pick up the 'W's'... I see a lot of strikeouts and a fast paced game. Royals 4 Dbacks 2
MTi Sports
Tampa Bay Rays at Colorado Rockies
Prediction: Tampa Bay Rays
The Rockies are 0-4 THIS SEASON as a home favorite after a win in which they had 12+ hits and the Rays are 5-0 after a one run win. Also, Colorado is 0-5 THIS SEASON when Jorge De La Rosa starts at home and Tampa is19-6 after a win in which they were tied at the end of 6 innings. Teams on long winning streaks do not need a day off. Consider Tampa.
Black Widow Sports
1* on Kansas City Royals -140
Gil Meche is pitching his best baseball of the season right now. Meche is 1-0 with a 1.35 ERA over his last 3 starts for the Royals. He has given up only 3 earned runs in 20 innings during this span, striking out 20 batters in the process. Arizona starter Doug Davis lasted just 4 innings in his last start against the San Francisco Giants. Davis is only 5-22 (-17.4 Units) against the money line in road games vs teams who strand 6.9 or less runners on base per game since 1997. Arizona is 10-24 (-12.9 Units) against the money line as a road underdog of +100 to +125 over the last 2 seasons. Kansas City is 21-9 (+14.6 Units) against the money line after having won 4 of their last 5 games over the last 2 seasons. The Royals are heating up, winning 4 of their last 5 games and their only loss was a 1-run setback in Cleveland. Take Kansas City on the Money Line.